How far behind the top 4 are we?

[baaaallllll]

After watching the Prelim finals and I enjoyed watching both games, I thought to myself how far away are we (AFC) from the four sides that played on the weekend.

Port and Brisbane have been power house sides for a number of years now and Geelong and St Kilda seem to be the new emerging teams and all four teams seem to be chocka block full of talent and comparing our list and the list of the top four it seems that we have a fair bit to do.

I know we beat Geelong a few rounds back but they should have beaten Brissy on the weekend. It looked like they had been coached by Ayres for the day. Get plenty of inside 50's but score bugger all from them.

Is it just me and the dissappointment of last season still lingering in my mind or are we realistically a quite a few season away from establishing ourselves as a top 4 side again?

snaps and scores his 100th post yes!!

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

Good question and one that after thinking about it for a little while Im still not sure.
I initially thought 07 or 08 might be realistic but then I thought by then we will more than likely be missing Roo Macca and Benny and thats a pretty substantial part of our team.
I think next year we will finish about the same while we are still developing our young players in Henschel, Reilly, Johncock, Watts and Jericho.
06 will be the year when they are all unleashed to have a fair crack at the finals and I think its a realistic goal.
However this is when it will get risky with such retirements as the ones mentioned above. Hopefully the likes of the young players also mentioned above have been able to stand up by then and then possibly 2007 could be the aim but Im not sure if we will have the depth by then to be a force much like Port and Brisbane. I think our best possible result would be like Geelong this year, so close yet so far.
Whatever happens it will be exciting times and Im loking forward to it.
Congrats on the 100 posts too

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Congratulations on 100, i'm still suffering from the 100 post celebrations.

I think we are a fair way off. We need some real quality draft picks which means we will have to either trade or finish in the bottom 4 the next couple of years. We have some quality kids, but for mine, not enough. Some players with grunt ( at least 4 ) would also be a top 4 pre-requisite. It's unfair Roo is expected to shoulder the load in this area.

 

[Mad Dog]

Good observation..I think we are a fair way from dominating a minor round and finishing with 17/18 wins for the season...but as we all know anything can happen even if you just sneek into the finals with 13/14 wins !
I get concerned when I sit and watch Nathan Bock try to contain Daniel Schell yesterday - hopefully all our eggs aren't in the Bock basket so to speak.
I think of more concern is that we may be in a position to challenge for a top 4 spot in 2/3 years time....but this will coincide with near retirements of Roo/Macca/Edwards/Goody/Hart.....and we will be back where we started again. Hopefully the club can work it so the transition in 2 or 3 years is less painful than this one. We need to treat each draft pick as gold and not dare trade for anyone who is 25+

ps - hope the ground invasion for the ton went ok !

 

[baaaallllll]

ps - hope the ground invasion for the ton went ok !

Tks....Still pushing fans away from my desk

 

[Stiffy_18]

I know I will get shot down by a few people here BUT in all honesty I think we are a fair way from being a contender.

If all things go our way with injuries and everything then there is a fair chance we could make the 8 next year but that is the absolute best case scenario and we will only be making up the numbers.

We need to do this properly or risk becoming another Kangaroos. I am not expecting finals until 2007.

 

[Wood_Duck]

I know I will get shot down by a few people here BUT in all honesty I think we are a fair way from being a contender.

If all things go our way with injuries and everything then there is a fair chance we could make the 8 next year but that is the absolute best case scenario and we will only be making up the numbers.

We need to do this properly or risk becoming another Kangaroos. I am not expecting finals until 2007.

I'm with Stiffy on this one. Not sure who in the under 21 group has anywhere near the class (or even the potential) of Roo, Macca or Ben. Think back to when these guys were 21. They were already stars. I don't have the facts to support my notion but I have a feeling they were all somewhere near All Australian selection when they were approx 21. We don't have anyone at that age currently that is even close.

 

[tribey]

Same Stiff.

There's a small core of good kids at West Lakes (Watts, Rutten, Johncock, Reilly, Hentschel) but compared to the amount of them running around at Melbourne, Kangas, West Coast, St Kilda and Geelong... not only are we a long way back now, we're already a good lap or two behind in 2005/2006.

As we've said, these next two draft/trade periods are make or break. NC has to weave some magic.

 

[Cap]

I'm with Stiffy on this one. Not sure who in the under 21 group has anywhere near the class (or even the potential) of Roo, Macca or Ben. Think back to when these guys were 21. They were already stars. I don't have the facts to support my notion but I have a feeling they were all somewhere near All Australian selection when they were approx 21. We don't have anyone at that age currently that is even close.

but the problem is we had a coach that didnt give them a chance till they were 21

roo was playing at 17-18 macca ang goody around 19 so they have a couple of years under there belt at 21
all of our young players are 2 yrs behind in development

 

[marvin]

I'm with Stiffy on this one. Not sure who in the under 21 group has anywhere near the class (or even the potential) of Roo, Macca or Ben. Think back to when these guys were 21. They were already stars. I don't have the facts to support my notion but I have a feeling they were all somewhere near All Australian selection when they were approx 21. We don't have anyone at that age currently that is even close.

Ben Hart was AA at 18 and at 19 (1992/93)
Roo was AA at 19 (1994)
Macca was B+F & Norm Smith medallist at 21, and AA at 22 years 1 month (1997/98)

Nigel Smart was AA for the first time at 22, as was Wayne Carey.

 

[baaaallllll]

Good bit of research Marvin. Astonishing facts really. Just shows how far away we are and we might be in for a few years of pain. Need a few more Groom for McLeod type deals in the near future.

 

[- PC -]

I know I will get shot down by a few people here BUT in all honesty I think we are a fair way from being a contender.

If all things go our way with injuries and everything then there is a fair chance we could make the 8 next year but that is the absolute best case scenario and we will only be making up the numbers.

We need to do this properly or risk becoming another Kangaroos. I am not expecting finals until 2007.

Agreed I think we CAN make the 8 but as 7 or 8 and an early exit. I am concerned as well as we all are with the looming retirements but arent we always?

McDermott McGuinness A Jarman all left basically the same time and we all cried ''the sky is falling the sky is falling'' As long as the secondary choices are good then I dont feel you have a problem e.g start a program whereby your senior back pocket player takes under his wing the nominated 3 players to take his spot and instill in them what is required of him . Much the same way a kid would look up to his hero study his moves where he runs to how he stands instead of watching the rest of his game.

I wont comment on 2006 until we see what teams FALL in 2005. We are also reliant on the strengths/weaknesses of other clubs around us.

Unless Blighty returns and we win from 5th

 

[Stiffy_18]

Same Stiff.

There's a small core of good kids at West Lakes (Watts, Rutten, Johncock, Reilly, Hentschel) but compared to the amount of them running around at Melbourne, Kangas, West Coast, St Kilda and Geelong... not only are we a long way back now, we're already a good lap or two behind in 2005/2006.

As we've said, these next two draft/trade periods are make or break. NC has to weave some magic.

You are absolutely right. You named 5 youngsters there that have potential but one of them is good 2 years away from getting a regular AFL game. Even if those blokes turned out to be absolutel superstars of the game, they can't do it alone. I guess the heartening thing is that out of those 5 you named 3 are KPP. Taking into account that we have a reasonably young CHB in McGregor we have a reasonable spine which is a very solid place to start from.

Our drafting and trading over the next 2-3 years has to have a really high strike rate. We have a solid defence, some potantial in the forward line so its absolutely imperative that we draft some exceptional midfielders and a ruckman or 2 that offer something around the ground.

Its a long process and it will take some time to get back to the level where you are considered a contender. Its a big job so its worth doing well and properly.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Agreed I think we CAN make the 8 but as 7 or 8 and an early exit. I am concerned as well as we all are with the looming retirements but arent we always?

McDermott McGuinness A Jarman all left basically the same time and we all cried ''the sky is falling the sky is falling'' As long as the secondary choices are good then I dont feel you have a problem e.g start a program whereby your senior back pocket player takes under his wing the nominated 3 players to take his spot and instill in them what is required of him . Much the same way a kid would look up to his hero study his moves where he runs to how he stands instead of watching the rest of his game.

Thats all well and good but when the names you mentioned had left we had some promising youngsters that were ready to step up and become stars. We had the likes of McLeod, Roo, Goodwin and Edwards in the wings ready to step up and take the next step and become stars. Nowdays our pickings aren't as good. You need to have young talent before you can do what you are suggesting but we clearly don't have as much talent as we should.

One thing that Robert Shaw did bring to this club is top class recruiting and we are STILL reaping the rewards of Robert's work at the draft and trading table.

 

[Mad Dog]

Our drafting and trading over the next 2-3 years has to have a really high strike rate. We have a solid defence, some potantial in the forward line so its absolutely imperative that we draft some exceptional midfielders and a ruckman or 2 that offer something around the ground.

.

this is the issue - the 4 or 5 mentioned with the exception of Reilly are ball "receivers" or "repellers". We really need to focus on drafting some ball "getters". We have always been spoiled in this area - the focus must be in the midfield.

 

[Mad Dog]

One thing that Robert Shaw did bring to this club is top class recruiting and we are STILL reaping the rewards of Robert's work at the draft and trading table.

I wont bore everyone with the stats but Shaws conversion of draftees into premierships players was second to none.

McLeod
Edwards
Goodwin
Johnson
Jarman
Vardy
Connell
Koster
Caven
Bond
Ellen

not a bad list

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

Scott Thompson could provide a very important link in the Crows team.
If we can have Reilly and Johncock step up next year to play some midfield time add Thompson we could have a very formidable midfield and the basis of a great team when you add Watts and Hentschel up forward, Kenny at CHB and Rutten at FB however this will take time and I think people have to be patient.
The next few drafts will be crucial we will have the core players but we need to build up on depth but it has to be quailty depth not just people like Shirley and Skipworth.

 

[conVINCEd]

I agree with the thoughts most of us have, that we should be decent in a couple of years, but that is when our older brigade will be declining.

On the positive side, as Stiffy said, we do have a good young spine, that should be more than adequate, but unfortunately, our midfield is terribly reliant on Roo, Macca, Goodwin and Edwards. We desperately need to focus on getting some quality young midfielders into the club, by using our early picks on them and also trying to trade for some. We HAVE to pick up Thompson, or, less likely, Waters in this off-season, not only because they are young but also because they have grunt.

To be honest, I wouldn't mind using our first three picks on midfielders, and look at getting a ruckman with later picks. I know we need a decent ruckman, but you can win a flag with a quality midfield and an average ruckman, but you can't win one with an awsome ruckman and a crap midfield (see Hawthorn this year with Everitt).

 

[RooDog]

i think we need to draft Jordan Lewis i think it is, not rated by many, is a tad slow but he is a proven ball winner at TAC cup winner, he gets in and under and dishes out. Only querry is over his pace, some rate him as top 10 others dont think he'll get drafted. The other one id trade for is McGough does the same thing, admittedly doesnt have great skills but we can work on that and his only 19/20!

 

[conVINCEd]

The next few drafts will be crucial we will have the core players but we need to build up on depth but it has to be quailty depth not just people like Shirley and Skipworth.

Absolutely. The talent at a team like Port is scary compared to our list.

They have guys like Ebert and White who we would be hailing as future superstars if they were at West Lakes, but at Port they can't even get a game. It seems like a popular sport to say Port are an ageing list, and that their "premiership window of opportunity" is closing, but their future midfield looks pretty damn good (Salopek, Ebert, Cassisi, K.Cornes, plus Carr who is still just 24), and as well as having these quality youngsters they have dominated the home-and-away season for the last three years. Why are we so, so, so far behind them?

Even Geelong have some top quality youngsters waiting in the wings - Tenace, Byrnes and Mackie.

The Cats have done very well simply by using their draft picks. It sound so simple yet we refuse to do it. Even in the last trading period we felt it necessary to trade two picks away for S.Stevens and a pick.

It also hurts my head to see us hang onto guys like Skipworth and Shirley who will never improve, whereas other clubs cut dead wood and only hang onto players who have talent - look at Josh Hunt from Geelong who, IMO, is a very, very good player. He was on the fringe for a couple of years but they knew he had talent and let him develop - unfortunately, we seem incapable of drafting/trading for players that will blossom - we simply go for guys who will never improve.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Yes, you really can't stress how important the upcoming trade period and draft will be to the future of the AFC. If we miss out on some genuine quality in this period we are deep in the smelly stuff. For any success in 2006 or 2007 we need a couple of stars to come out of either the draft or a trade. I agree that we really need to focus on the midfielders. Rielly looks like he will be the goods (at least until he gets homesick and does a Kane Johnson), IMO the jury is still out on Johncock. Am I the only one who thinks that he really didn't make a lot of progress this year? I hope that in 2006 and beyond we are still not hoping that the likes of Skipworth, Shirley etc are going to match it with the likes of Davey, Wells, Ablett, and Hadley.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Absolutely. The talent at a team like Port is scary compared to our list.

They have guys like Ebert and White who we would be hailing as future superstars if they were at West Lakes, but at Port they can't even get a game. It seems like a popular sport to say Port are an ageing list, and that their "premiership window of opportunity" is closing, but their future midfield looks pretty damn good (Salopek, Ebert, Cassisi, K.Cornes, plus Carr who is still just 24), and as well as having these quality youngsters they have dominated the home-and-away season for the last three years. Why are we so, so, so far behind them?

Even Geelong have some top quality youngsters waiting in the wings - Tenace, Byrnes and Mackie.

The Cats have done very well simply by using their draft picks. It sound so simple yet we refuse to do it. Even in the last trading period we felt it necessary to trade two picks away for S.Stevens and a pick.

It also hurts my head to see us hang onto guys like Skipworth and Shirley who will never improve, whereas other clubs cut dead wood and only hang onto players who have talent - look at Josh Hunt from Geelong who, IMO, is a very, very good player. He was on the fringe for a couple of years but they knew he had talent and let him develop - unfortunately, we seem incapable of drafting/trading for players that will blossom - we simply go for guys who will never improve.

"guys who will never improve" like Bock, Ladhams, Skippy, Shirley, S Stevens, Massie, Doughty, Burton etc etc - where did we get it so wrong - who is to blame??

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

We need to keep in mind that fortunes can turn around quickly - as the Dees showed this year. If all went well, I can see us making the bottom half of the final-8, but we are a few year at least off a flag. We just don't have the depth of a team like Port, so if we get a few key injuries (like Goody, Hart, Stevo, etc this year), we are in strife as we don't have the quality replacements.

IMO, our spine looks as promising as ever with the KPP we have coming through. I'm confident our defence is in good shape too as we can build our numerous HBF's around Kenny & Truck. Forward line lacks depth, but if Welshy, Sarge & Hentschel stay sound & either Watts or Krueger come through, we should be OK.

The major concern is though with our midfielders under 27 coming through to take over from Roo, Goody, Edwards & Macca. We need more than Reilly & Stiffy ... but if we can address this with clever drafting & recruiting (eg. likes of Thomspon) it can be rectified. Also, need to find a quality ruckman to take over from Clarke.

 

[Stiffy_18]

i think we need to draft Jordan Lewis i think it is, not rated by many, is a tad slow but he is a proven ball winner at TAC cup winner, he gets in and under and dishes out. Only querry is over his pace, some rate him as top 10 others dont think he'll get drafted. The other one id trade for is McGough does the same thing, admittedly doesnt have great skills but we can work on that and his only 19/20!

With all due respects McGough will never be anything more than a fill in player and we have plenty of those. I would rather get someone through the draft. His leg speed is non existant and his disposal is appauling. We need to add pace and grunt to our midfield. Not another slow as a snail onballer with questionable disposal at the best of times.

 

[Stiffy_18]

To be honest, I wouldn't mind using our first three picks on midfielders, and look at getting a ruckman with later picks. I know we need a decent ruckman, but you can win a flag with a quality midfield and an average ruckman, but you can't win one with an awsome ruckman and a crap midfield (see Hawthorn this year with Everitt).

Can't agree with this. Good ruckman are as rare as hen's teeth, midfielders are dime a dozen.

To me it would be stupid to go overboard with midfielder with this draft considering you can always pick up a good midfielder in any draft. This years draft is supposed to have 3 good ruck prospects. I would rather go with 3 midfielders and a ruckman with our first 3 picks than 3 midfielders.

We need help everywhere not just the midfield. Considering that talls take longer to develop then I would say that drafting a ruckman this year is imperative. No one is going to let a good ruck prospect slip into round 4. You would be just getting a dud.

Much better chance of picking up a midfielder with 4th pick than picking up a good ruckman with the same pick