How far can Smith go ?

[cricketnut14]

Again, rumours surfacing that Smith may retire this week - what the !

How much further will Smith go in the test arena?

2023/24 home pakistan (3) west indies (2)
2023/24 away new zealand (2)
2024/25 home india (5)
2024/25 away sri lanka (2)
2025 * WTC Final
2025 away west indies (2)
2025/26 home england (5)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2026 home bangladesh (2)
2026/27 away south africa (3)
2026/27 home new zealand (4)
2026/27 away india (5)
2026/27 home england (1)
2027 *WTC Final
2027 away england (5)

i think he could finish with a home ashes series in 2 and a half years time , he'd be 36 going on 37 (so effectively this WTC cycle plus finish at home).
*after that there's 20 tests in like an 12 month period - would love to see him finish with winning tours in india and england .

that would give him another 21 tests and take him to approx 11,200 runs (second aussie to ponting and 2nd most tons to ponting) @ 56 (second aussie to bradman) and 180+ catches (2nd aussie to ponting).

how long and far does everyone think he can go ?

 

[11kgm]

I think he'll be someone that will retire early, he puts a lot of mental strain on himself doesn't sleep much during a test match

 

[The Passenger]

I'd be very surprised if he retires before 10,000 runs, but I'm not sure he'll go far beyond that.

But I reckon he is probably a fair stats conscious guy and he'd be gutted if a late career decline sees his average drop below 55 like it did for Ponting and Tendulkar.

I think he'll retire with the 10,000 and 55 double, joining Sangakarra and Kallis.

Despite being a little bit subpar for the last little period (it must also be noted India and England are the two toughest road trips) he does have a chance this summer to stat-pad a little bit and aside from India in Australia, it's not the hardest block of test matches you've ever seen.

He'd be absolutely desperate to finish with a 60+ average and the chance to do so is somewhat slipping away from him. It's hard to gauge the records of Headley, Pollock and Barnes who are obviously great cricketers but their careers were incredibly interrupted and we'll never know if they could have been sustained long term. We all know Voges 60+ average is a bit of a pisstake... Herb Sutcliffe, retiring in 1935, is the last person to have played a decent number of tests and finish with a 60+ average. It is rarified company indeed if Smith can get back there.

 

[PhatBoy]

As we have often noted in this forum, he leaves himself such a challenge as he gets older due to his quirky method as it is so reliant on his eye enabling him to walk to the offside and catch up with any ball targeting his stumps. He’s still very good at it but seems to be starting to maybe be a bit more susceptible than he was. A lot may depend on what he’s satisfied with.

If he batted for another 2 years averaging 45, that still makes him one of the best upper-middle order batsmen in the world. It means he’s contributing, he’s just not doing it at the level he was prior. How protective of his record does he want to be?

He loves his cricket: I think he would give away another format before he’d give away test matches even allowing for the mental strain it puts on him.

On a not-so-serious-but-ALMOST-could-be-serious note, he’s probably got repetitive shock injuries through both wrists and elbows from how f**ken hard he smashes his bat into the crease while he’s waiting for the bowler so that maybe will be a factor

 

[Outshined]

Similar train of thought to the above. There'll be a tipping point where his stat obsession loses out to his batting obsession.

Fair point too that his technique isn't particularly conducive to longevity. He has a year or two left in him at most, assuming he wants to retire with that average sitting above 54~55. My money's on a home Ashes summer swansong given the "easier" fixtures he's got lined up after this one.

 

[010203]

I can see him calling it quits after India's 2024-25 tour here.

 

[Belnakor]

I can see him calling it quits after India's 2024-25 tour here.

I can’t see him doing that when he could stay a bit longer and play another home ashes.

Certainly not longer than that. He has already said he won’t be touring India again.

Suspect CA will ask him to hang around as the team will have a significant transition with Warner usman and most of the bowling attack bowing out around then.

 

[Santana]

Hopefully until the 2025 Ashes

 

[Teen Wolf]

Answer 1: He will average 40 over his next 40 innings (takes him roughly up to the end of the next home Ashes), taking his career average to 54.80. At which point he'll aim to keep playing until it's back over 55, instead of appropriately retiring. In doing so, his average will then drop sharply, and he'll pull the pin as soon as it's in danger of going sub-50.

Answer 2: How are we supposed to know.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

It could go either way. The way he plays the end could be very sudden. But he's a thinker and could possibly move to a more orthodox style, with a lower output than we are used to but decent enough.
After 2025/26 seems the most likely, but a home series win against India might pull him up.

Oh, and seriously, zero Tests between the NZ tour and next home summer? Crazy.

 

[cricketnut14]

It could go either way. The way he plays the end could be very sudden. But he's a thinker and could possibly move to a more orthodox style, with a lower output than we are used to but decent enough.
After 2025/26 seems the most likely, but a home series win against India might pull him up.

Oh, and seriously, zero Tests between the NZ tour and next home summer? Crazy.

well 2023 was has been full on and crammed with 4 v india, WTC final, 5 v england, back to india for white ball games, odi wc and more white ball games.

2024 seems its a white ball year with tours to afghanistan, ireland and england (8 odis/ 7 T20)
nothing stopping us organising a 1 off test v afghanistan and ireland though. would've seemed reasonable.

 

[Coops93]

He's talked about retiring enough now that it makes me believe he'll likely retire well before people think he should. I'd be surprised if it was after The Oval, as has been rumoured, but not at all surprised if it's after this home summer. He is 34 now already which is surprising and by the next Indian tour he'll be 35. Fairly up there for a batter, especially one with his technique and other issues slowing him down - as discussed above.

I know people will say "Why not retire after the big Indian tour down under?", well, you could play that game forever. Why not retire after the next home Ashes then? It's only another 12 months. What about this or that next tour? Big tours are always on the horizon, it's how the game works. Everyone retires with some big tour coming up in the next year or two.

Finishing up after captaining a win and a draw in India, then winning the WTC while scoring a century, while also retaining* the last 2 away ashes and winning 9 home Ashes tests undefeated followed by a celebration tour at home against some easy kills (hopefully scoring a few on the way, eking the average to over 60 all things going well) would be a fine way to go out.

*at minimum at this point, would be even more ideal after a win at The Oval. Retaining would still suffice, but obviously isn't quite as prestigious to the legacy.

 

[Coops93]

Also perhaps pushing to retirement is how big these away tours have been. It's been a massive amount of travel for them this year (even going back to last yr, with Pakistan being a hard trip), and often that's what breaks players - which they mention themselves is the hardest part of it all. Someone with his off-field habits (lack of sleep, overtraining etc.), being away, continuously in that environment, could very easily burn someone like Smudge out quicker than people will have hoped.

 

[The Passenger]

If he can rack up the 10,000th run this summer which given his current number (9195) would probably mean pushing his average back up above 60 (805 runs in 7 tests) and that be enough for him.

I can also envisage a scenario where he just plays the home summer, takes a break (skipping NZ) to regroup and then has one final big push at the end. Home series against India, a couple of tests Sri Lanka and hopefully finish at the WTC final.

I think he'll want to finish on something big - the same test as his 10K run, India or WTC Final all loom pretty large.

 

[cricketnut14]

If he can rack up the 10,000th run this summer which given his current number (9195) would probably mean pushing his average back up above 60 (805 runs in 7 tests) and that be enough for him.

I can also envisage a scenario where he just plays the home summer, takes a break (skipping NZ) to regroup and then has one final big push at the end. Home series against India, a couple of tests Sri Lanka and hopefully finish at the WTC final.

I think he'll want to finish on something big - the same test as his 10K run, India or WTC Final all loom pretty large.

i think unless he gets a big score with a not out or a double ton or a purple patch, no chance he'll finish with an average of 60.

i'd be happy for him to pass border, waugh run tally and ave of 55+.

 

[Coops93]

If he can rack up the 10,000th run this summer which given his current number (9195) would probably mean pushing his average back up above 60 (805 runs in 7 tests) and that be enough for him.

I can also envisage a scenario where he just plays the home summer, takes a break (skipping NZ) to regroup and then has one final big push at the end. Home series against India, a couple of tests Sri Lanka and hopefully finish at the WTC final.

I think he'll want to finish on something big - the same test as his 10K run, India or WTC Final all loom pretty large.

Finishing on a WTC Championship, Winning the Ashes* then a farewell home tour - potentially hitting 10k - not big enough?

*obviously pending results

 

[Belnakor]

Also perhaps pushing to retirement is how big these away tours have been. It's been a massive amount of travel for them this year (even going back to last yr, with Pakistan being a hard trip), and often that's what breaks players - which they mention themselves is the hardest part of it all. Someone with his off-field habits (lack of sleep, overtraining etc.), being away, continuously in that environment, could very easily burn someone like Smudge out quicker than people will have hoped.

its been a particularily brutal phase for alot of the players, the india + ashes tour combo always has them struggling by the end.

at least alot of them didn't play the IPL this year. I was reading Cam Green has spent 2 days in Australia in the last 6 months due to india + IPL + ashes lol.

 

[cricketnut14]

If he can rack up the 10,000th run this summer which given his current number (9195) would probably mean pushing his average back up above 60 (805 runs in 7 tests) and that be enough for him.

I can also envisage a scenario where he just plays the home summer, takes a break (skipping NZ) to regroup and then has one final big push at the end. Home series against India, a couple of tests Sri Lanka and hopefully finish at the WTC final.

I think he'll want to finish on something big - the same test as his 10K run, India or WTC Final all loom pretty large.

what about an retiring at the inaugral afghanistan test or a return of sandpaper gate ?

 

[Coops93]

its been a particularily brutal phase for alot of the players, the india + ashes tour combo always has them struggling by the end.

at least alot of them didn't play the IPL this year. I was reading Cam Green has spent 2 days in Australia in the last 6 months due to india + IPL + ashes lol.

I recall it being flagged when he signed up actually.

Tbf it was a lot of money for him so I can't blame someone for cashing in, especially when they still play the tests. Especially while young, makes sense to cash in a little bit then have the money in the bank to focus in INTL cricket for the rest ala what Starc has done. Hopefully that's his angle, anyway.

Could explain his indifferent form with bat, ball and field really.

 

[The King!]

I can see him falling off a cliff, has looked less like his best mostly.

 

[1990crow]

2025 Ashes

 

[Cainozz]

Would like to see him finish in the 2025/26 Ashes.

Means we can stagnate the retirements of some of the more senior players to gradually bring new talent through and give them all the send-offs they deserve at their home grounds.

Warner end of 23/24 summer
Khawaja end of 24/25 summer
Smith & Lyon end of 25/26 summer

 

[Snarls Barkley]

I think he'll make it to the home Ashes. Would be 36 and a half when that series concludes and thats what I'd put my money on.

Will have a busy schedule with the World Cup and its warm up matches and then 7 Tests in a four month period from mid December to mid March but then with an 8 month break from Tests should give him a good chance to freshen up physically and mentally. Not sure how much limited overs international cricket he plans on playing post World Cup.

 

[cricketnut14]

be interested to see if this changes people's opinion now that he is opening the batting.

i still think the end of the 25/26 ashes could see him out (which is 18-19 tests time).

 

[RightWingRoo]

Would like to see him finish in the 2025/26 Ashes.

Means we can stagnate the retirements of some of the more senior players to gradually bring new talent through and give them all the send-offs they deserve at their home grounds.

Warner end of 23/24 summer
Khawaja end of 24/25 summer
Smith & Lyon end of 25/26 summer

Think this will be pretty close to the mark and in theory far better managed than the mass retirements of 2007-9 and 2015. And to add to this, it's likely one of Starc and Hazlewood will retire after the India series and the other after the Ashes.