Howard the life-saver.

[kaysee]

I thought it is worth highlighting one of Howard's policies that doesn't seem to get much traction... even though it has resulted in saving 200 lives and resulted in good economic value-for-money:

http://www.smh.com.au/national/howards-gun-legacy--200-lives-saved-a-year-20100829-13xne.html

Howard's gun legacy - 200 lives saved a year Peter Martin ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT
August 30, 2010



TEN years of suicide data after John Howard's decision to ban and then buy back 600,000 semi-automatic rifles and shotguns has had a stunning effect.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/howards-gun-legacy--200-lives-saved-a-year-20100829-13xne.html

 

[JimDocker]

I am not a fan of John Howard, but I thought he showed a lot of strength in getting that bill through when he did. He use public sentiment to push it through at the time and if he had not, that support may have waned.

I can only remember him showing conviction on a couple of things. The GST, and this.

 

[Delroy]

Where is the proof that people just didn't commit suicide in another way?

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Where is the proof that people just didn't commit suicide in another way?

That's what I was thinking, but it might have saved a few lives due to not having a gun there during a suicidal period.

 

[Delroy]

That's what I was thinking, but it might have saved a few lives due to not having a gun there during a suicidal period.

Yeah that is very possible. But the article claims that all 200 hypothetical gun suicides were avoided because Howard banned guns. They didn't say whether in that time suicides went up or down. And whether other methods of suicide went up or down. Which are plainly relevant.

Therefore until those figures are corroborated with the articles statistics, the headline should be "Howard's gun legacy - less people used guns to kill themselves."

 

[morgoth]

How many lifes did he save in East Timor?

Left wing press refuses to acknowledge it all, its like it never happened. They have to live with the shame that they were abandoned by Gough, liberated by Howard.

 

[Richo83]

How many lifes did he save in East Timor?

Left wing press refuses to acknowledge it all, its like it never happened. They have to live with the shame that they were abandoned by Gough, liberated by Howard.

True and ET and guns are two great legacies which should be remembered, but I always got the sense that at times, Howard was the reluctant savior, and partly acted due to events such as Indonesia assenting, plus the slaughter by the TNI made inaction impossible. My memory is hazy though.

@ ice wolf, you also need to remember that gun banning isn't just about suicides, it's about trying to limit gun-related crimes i.e. murder, which is why I don't understand why conservatives in America are so keen on law, order and stability yet they want every man and his dog to be allowed to have a gun

 

[kaysee]

Do people actually read the article???

... none of her academic colleagues have found fault with her finding.

Whereas the earlier study had found an increase in suicides by other methods, suggesting substitution, Dr Neill's study found no evidence of substitution within any state.

Not hard people... the answer to your questions lies within the article.

Admittedly it is a policy I have never given a 2nd thought to. Only thought of it again when seeing this article and thought "Yep, that is a policy that deserves more kudos".

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Howard's first two and a half terms were pretty bloody good all things considered;

Gun buyback, East Timor, Introducing the GST, Dealing with the fallout from Wik, sorting out the waterfront (although I disagree with how he went about it), paying back the debt and dealing with the Asian financial crisis is a pretty impressive list of achievements - especially compared to what Kev and Jools managed in three years.

Pity it all went downhill post-Tampa though.

 

[kaysee]

Further reading of the article and study show the economical benefits of the policy:

- 600,000 guns bought back @ $800 each
- total buyback cost ~ $480 million
- economic boost due to lives saved = $500 million per year.

But HEY... I am sure critics will find fault with it.

 

[DarwinRoo]

How many lifes did he save in East Timor?

Left wing press refuses to acknowledge it all, its like it never happened. They have to live with the shame that they were abandoned by Gough, liberated by Howard.

Did Howard wear a uniform, did he?

How many Iraqi lives did Howard take?

 

[Pessimistic]

Just dont mention handguns.

Wouldnt that be the preferrred suicide weapon ?

 

[Delroy]

Do people actually read the article???





Not hard people... the answer to your questions lies within the article.

Admittedly it is a policy I have never given a 2nd thought to. Only thought of it again when seeing this article and thought "Yep, that is a policy that deserves more kudos".

So you are of the firm opinion after reading that article, that every year 200 would be suiciders, do not commit suicide, because they do not have access to a gun?

I don't think there is enough evidence there to reach such a conclusion. Would need to read the full report.

 

[Old Spice]

How many lifes did he save in East Timor?

Left wing press refuses to acknowledge it all, its like it never happened. They have to live with the shame that they were abandoned by Gough, liberated by Howard.

I've read enough of your posts to know you'll beleive anything you're told.

Indonesia were not particularly happy with Australia's intervention in East Timor, but Australia was not about to intervene against the TNI either. Anyone who believes that the East Timor conflict was a war between the ADF and TNI over East Timorese sovereignty will swallow anything.

It was all about control and stability in the archipelago in a period of flux. If you seriously think Australia was going to go to war with Indonesia over East Timor, you're a half-wit.

Lives weren't saved by Australian intervention at all. The ADF waited until the TNI had made an example of East Timor as a lesson to separatist movements, eg. Irian Jaya, before it stepped in.

Stop talking shit.

 

[Richo83]

So giving a nation independence isn't a respectable thing? If it wasn't for the gov, ET would still be under Indonesian control and the way they handled things it was a blessing to escape.

 

[evo]

Further reading of the article and study show the economical benefits of the policy:

- 600,000 guns bought back @ $800 each
- total buyback cost ~ $480 million
- economic boost due to lives saved = $500 million per year.

But HEY... I am sure critics will find fault with it.

200 people saved = $500 million economic boost? Would love to know where they plucked figure from.


We better let more people into Australia if that's the rate of return.

 

[Contra Mundum]

Showed courage and leadership and then **** me something good happened!! Please take note Labor and Liberal Parties!

 

[morgoth]

I've read enough of your posts to know you'll beleive anything you're told.

Indonesia were not particularly happy with Australia's intervention in East Timor, but Australia was not about to intervene against the TNI either. Anyone who believes that the East Timor conflict was a war between the ADF and TNI over East Timorese sovereignty will swallow anything.

It was all about control and stability in the archipelago in a period of flux. If you seriously think Australia was going to go to war with Indonesia over East Timor, you're a half-wit.

Lives weren't saved by Australian intervention at all. The ADF waited until the TNI had made an example of East Timor as a lesson to separatist movements, eg. Irian Jaya, before it stepped in.

Stop talking shit.

Your struggling aren't you comrade. First Howard fixes up Goughs mess and then the unelectable Abbott owns your ginger biatch. First time in 70 years a first term Govt has failed to get a mandate.

Be proud comrade.

 

[kaysee]

So you are of the firm opinion after reading that article, that every year 200 would be suiciders, do not commit suicide, because they do not have access to a gun?

...

I am of the opinion that:
- other people with more knowledge, experience and resources (than you and I) have spent time researching the topic.
- have drawn their conclusions.
- have opened their studies and conclusions to other to review/criticise.
- and without complaint released their conclusions, which state...

200 lives per year have been saved due to the policy.

...
I don't think there is enough evidence there to reach such a conclusion. Would need to read the full report.

If that is your expert opinion why don't you request the study, raise an objection to it within the academic framework and prevent the study being published????

Also of note is her co-author is a current elected Labor MP and the Australian National University academic Dr Andrew Leigh.

But... heyyyy... that doesn't matter b/c Delroy "doesn't believe their is enough evidence".

 

[kaysee]

200 people saved = $500 million economic boost? Would love to know where they plucked figure from.
....

TBH... do we need to know the specific measures or can we place a level of trust in their research?

Scientists and academics research and conclude things all the time. Sometimes they're proven/disproven immediately, sometimes years/decades later and sometimes are never proven/disproven.

For now it is yet to be disproven so it carries a level of validity.


As for the figure it works out to be $2.5 Million per person per year. That could factor in many economic figures:
- income earnt.
- taxes paid.
- spending back into the economy.
- variations to medical costs.
- economic impact to close family/friends.
- impact to employers (production loses, covering work loads, finding/training replacements).
- and so on...

 

[Belnakor]

anything.

It was all about control and stability in the archipelago in a period of flux.

I think you just distilled the biggest load of bullshit into one sentence i've ever read or heard. Bravo.

 

[Delroy]

I am of the opinion that:
- other people with more knowledge, experience and resources (than you and I) have spent time researching the topic.
- have drawn their conclusions.
- have opened their studies and conclusions to other to review/criticise.
- and without complaint released their conclusions, which state...

200 lives per year have been saved due to the policy.



If that is your expert opinion why don't you request the study, raise an objection to it within the academic framework and prevent the study being published????

Also of note is her co-author is a current elected Labor MP and the Australian National University academic Dr Andrew Leigh.

But... heyyyy... that doesn't matter b/c Delroy "doesn't believe their is enough evidence".

keep in mind that i'm not trying to disprove her finding, only saying that the evidence has not been laid out.

So you agree with the article because it was written by academics? Your not even going to consider the possibility it isn't accurate?

This is the argument I can gather from the article

a. Firearms are banned
b. The number of suicides by firearm decreases

therefore

c. The numerical difference between suicides by firearms before ban, and after ban, can be stated as being lives saved.

What conclusions can be drawn from this? That people are more likely to commit suicide if they have a firearm. Again I ask where is that proven? I would rather a psychologist telling me what causes suicide than an economist.

and stop with the , if you didn't want this to be discussed, don't post it on a discussion board. I don't care if I'm right or wrong, I'm just throwing out some thoughts.

 

[Old Spice]

Your struggling aren't you comrade. First Howard fixes up Goughs mess and then the unelectable Abbott owns your ginger biatch. First time in 70 years a first term Govt has failed to get a mandate.

Be proud comrade.

That's your response to my comments on your ill-informed East Timor reflections. You're lightweight, but I didn't know to what degree.

I'll take on your comments though. Firstly, Howard didn't follow Whitlam, he followed a 13 year Labor government that instituted all the things Howard never had the balls or vision to do for himself. Howard was the worst and most profligate treasurer and PM in our history.

How someone could ride an unprecedented resources boom and have nothing to show for it at the end is astounding. Rusted infrastructure, draconian IR laws, degraded R&D, health care and education and a regressive tax regime. Wow, what a champ!

 

[TheBloods]

200 people saved = $500 million economic boost? Would love to know where they plucked figure from.

Not that hard to determine a similar figure. For example, 200 people, earning average income $60K, indexed by 2% wage growth, discounted over 40 years, gives you $400m.

Whether that is a meaningful number is a different issue.

 

[TheBloods]

How someone could ride an unprecedented resources boom and have nothing to show for it at the end is astounding.

This is a bit of a BF furphy. Average revenue take for Howard years = 35.8% of GDP. For the Hawke years = 35.1% of GDP. Not a huge difference.