Society/Culture Humanity is in its last days. Its just a question of how we end?

Remove this Banner Ad

Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
There are three key threats facing humanity. One of them will definitely end our race within the next three centuries. Probably less. So why the hell doesn't anyone talk about them?

First of all what aren't realistic threats to humanity.

The rise of robots is not a threat to humanity. There is no realistic scenario where robots decide the best course of action is to end the human race. Robots aren't designed by a single mad scientist who is vastly more advanced then the rest of the human race who then either accidentally/or deliberately programs a robot to kill everyone. Human progress is a group process. Robots also will never have wills of their own that results in them waking up and coordinating with each other to kill everyone. Intelligence and free will are completely separate things. Free will doesn't evolve from increased brain capacity (and yes for the typical party pooper who wants to point it out we are all aware that at a sub atomic level free will doesn't exist).

Man made climate change will not be a threat to humanity. It could of been and was something I would of been worried about in the nineties. But human progress in clean technologies means that we will never get to the point where it becomes serious enough to cause dramatic upheaval on a global population level. We will probably end up with 3-4 degrees of warming relative to pre-Industrial levels and that's only because human societies will be slow to embrace the technologies they already have. However the 8 plus degree changes that is potentially human extinction level is no longer a realistic possibility.

An asteroid is obviously a human level extinction threat. But we have no real reason to believe the threat is any bigger then usual over the next couple of centuries. It could hit but the threat level seems low so I'm not counting it.

So what are the three biggest threats. Counting backwards from weakest to biggest threat.

3) A killer virus. A virus that is highly infectious like Covid, has a period where the infected are asymptotic but contagious and has a high mortality rate. This threat is becoming much bigger not only because humans have much greater interaction with each other and our environment but because we now have the ability to create these virus's synthetically in small unregulated labs and this ability is growing.

2) Nuclear disaster. Humans for some reason have forgotten about this threat since the Cold War has ended. But not only is the threat still there but it is now far bigger and growing. Its not only the major economies that have nuclear weapons but small tin pot dictatorships are now likely getting access. Terrorists are also likely to get access at some point. It only takes one leader in a tin pot dictatorship on his death bed to say "Screw it I want to end the world". Just one. The probability of it occurring at some point is inevitable as long as the world is made up of 200 countries and terrorists organization have the capability to invade these countries. The solution to this is global governance but we are moving away from this now it seems.

1) Number one is a certainty if the others don't get us first. So what is it?

Humans will genetically engineer a new race that eventually will no longer be classified as human and become the new dominant species of the earth. We already have the capability to start playing around with the genetics of our offspring. This isn't science fiction anymore. It starts with reducing our likelihood of getting certain illnesses. But it will spread quickly from there. Reducing the aging process, increasing our intelligence and increasing our disposition away from anxiety and depression towards towards happiness. And it will continue to evolve from there. In a very short period of time the race that exists will have very little characteristics consistent with humans today. The gap will end up being far bigger than the gap between chimps and humans. Humans will then cease to exist. This could all take place in the next 100 years. But definitely will occur within the next 300 years unless of course society collapses before then due to one of the other threats. This is indeed our best outcome.

How does it make you feel knowing that humanity is coming to an end? We have existed for at least a couple of hundred thousand years. But we our now down to our last couple of centuries. Its kinds of sobering. Makes all our current political debates seem completely pointless. For those of us under 40 we are very likely to see the start of this shift towards a new species within our life times.

Should we try to stop this shift? Ban genetic engineering and at least delay the process for a couple of generations. Or do we embrace it realizing that those who replace us will have much more satisfying lives then we do?
 

Log in to remove this ad.

M Malice

Hall of Famer
Aug 31, 2015
31,288
71,668
By the Gabba.
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Valleys. Chelsea.
Yes but that blink of time has atleast been a couple of hundred thousand years if not a couple of million. We only have 300 years left.
We have a long way to go to be in the class of the crocodile and the shark, 80 million and 400 million years respectively and still going strong.

Discussions like this always remind me of this classic hilarious bit from George Carlin >
 
Jun 11, 2007
21,054
20,140
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Humans will genetically engineer a new race that eventually will no longer be classified as human and become the new dominant species of the earth. We already have the capability to start playing around with the genetics of our offspring. This isn't science fiction anymore.

s**t, remember back in 2037 when Geelong fielded a team of Gary Ablett clones? We went through three seasons undefeated but then some Genetic Luddite Party won the election and said what we were doing was morally wrong.

Turns out the leader of the GLP was a Hawthorn supporter. Typical.
 
Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
sh*t, remember back in 2037 when Geelong fielded a team of Gary Ablett clones? We went through three seasons undefeated but then some Genetic Luddite Party won the election and said what we were doing was morally wrong.

Turns out the leader of the GLP was a Hawthorn supporter. Typical.
And this is why afl football will not be a thing by 2100.
 
May 1, 2016
28,336
55,252
AFL Club
Carlton
We have a long way to go to be in the class of the crocodile and the shark, 80 million and 400 million years respectively and still going strong.

Discussions like this always remind me of this classic hilarious bit from George Carlin >

I struggle sometimes with Carlin. He's funny, he's unequivocally smart, and he's right rather a lot, but I just don't find him amusing when I follow his philosophies through to their conclusion.

At the root of it all, he was an angry, angry man. I feel his disdain through his wit. Can someone have both the lowest opinion of themselves and their place in the universe whilst still having the highest opinion of their own viewpoint?
 

Bomberboyokay

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts
Sep 27, 2014
34,227
28,861
AFL Club
Essendon
There are three key threats facing humanity. One of them will definitely end our race within the next three centuries. Probably less. So why the hell doesn't anyone talk about them?

First of all what aren't realistic threats to humanity.

The rise of robots is not a threat to humanity. There is no realistic scenario where robots decide the best course of action is to end the human race. Robots aren't designed by a single mad scientist who is vastly more advanced then the rest of the human race who then either accidentally/or deliberately programs a robot to kill everyone. Human progress is a group process. Robots also will never have wills of their own that results in them waking up and coordinating with each other to kill everyone. Intelligence and free will are completely separate things. Free will doesn't evolve from increased brain capacity (and yes for the typical party pooper who wants to point it out we are all aware that at a sub atomic level free will doesn't exist).

Man made climate change will not be a threat to humanity. It could of been and was something I would of been worried about in the nineties. But human progress in clean technologies means that we will never get to the point where it becomes serious enough to cause dramatic upheaval on a global population level. We will probably end up with 3-4 degrees of warming relative to pre-Industrial levels and that's only because human societies will be slow to embrace the technologies they already have. However the 8 plus degree changes that is potentially human extinction level is no longer a realistic possibility.

An asteroid is obviously a human level extinction threat. But we have no real reason to believe the threat is any bigger then usual over the next couple of centuries. It could hit but the threat level seems low so I'm not counting it.

So what are the three biggest threats. Counting backwards from weakest to biggest threat.

3) A killer virus. A virus that is highly infectious like Covid, has a period where the infected are asymptotic but contagious and has a high mortality rate. This threat is becoming much bigger not only because humans have much greater interaction with each other and our environment but because we now have the ability to create these virus's synthetically in small unregulated labs and this ability is growing.

2) Nuclear disaster. Humans for some reason have forgotten about this threat since the Cold War has ended. But not only is the threat still there but it is now far bigger and growing. Its not only the major economies that have nuclear weapons but small tin pot dictatorships are now likely getting access. Terrorists are also likely to get access at some point. It only takes one leader in a tin pot dictatorship on his death bed to say "Screw it I want to end the world". Just one. The probability of it occurring at some point is inevitable as long as the world is made up of 200 countries and terrorists organization have the capability to invade these countries. The solution to this is global governance but we are moving away from this now it seems.

1) Number one is a certainty if the others don't get us first. So what is it?

Humans will genetically engineer a new race that eventually will no longer be classified as human and become the new dominant species of the earth. We already have the capability to start playing around with the genetics of our offspring. This isn't science fiction anymore. It starts with reducing our likelihood of getting certain illnesses. But it will spread quickly from there. Reducing the aging process, increasing our intelligence and increasing our disposition away from anxiety and depression towards towards happiness. And it will continue to evolve from there. In a very short period of time the race that exists will have very little characteristics consistent with humans today. The gap will end up being far bigger than the gap between chimps and humans. Humans will then cease to exist. This could all take place in the next 100 years. But definitely will occur within the next 300 years unless of course society collapses before then due to one of the other threats. This is indeed our best outcome.

How does it make you feel knowing that humanity is coming to an end? We have existed for at least a couple of hundred thousand years. But we our now down to our last couple of centuries. Its kinds of sobering. Makes all our current political debates seem completely pointless. For those of us under 40 we are very likely to see the start of this shift towards a new species within our life times.

Should we try to stop this shift? Ban genetic engineering and at least delay the process for a couple of generations. Or do we embrace it realizing that those who replace us will have much more satisfying lives then we do?

Climate change is a threat still largely unaddressed. Perhaps you're just bored of it.
 
Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
Climate change is a threat still largely unaddressed. Perhaps you're just bored of it.
As someone who worked on climate change for 10 years it really isnt. Not a human existential threat anyway. It could of been. But it wont be. Our technology has really accelerated in leaps and bounds in the past 2 decades. Except in coal capture and storage. That tech is a dead horse.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
This thread actually got a couple more responses then i thought it would. People dont like facing the prospect of their inevitable demise.

If it was announced an asteroid would wipe us all out in 3 years i bet most people would ignore the news and continue on with their lives as normal until probably about 2 weeks out from dday.
 
Oct 17, 2000
18,944
16,595
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Fitzroy Football Club
There are three key threats facing humanity. One of them will definitely end our race within the next three centuries.

Our race? Or our species? Either way I really doubt that.

3) A killer virus. A virus that is highly infectious like Covid, has a period where the infected are asymptotic but contagious and has a high mortality rate. This threat is becoming much bigger not only because humans have much greater interaction with each other and our environment but because we now have the ability to create these virus's synthetically in small unregulated labs and this ability is growing.

Doubtful. Pandemics of various sizes have been constant throughout human history including the largest of them all - the Black Death of the fourteenh century which killed approximately 200 million in Eurasia or smallpox in the Americas which killed about 56 million people. Spanish Flu killed about 50 milion people.

2) Nuclear disaster. Humans for some reason have forgotten about this threat since the Cold War has ended. But not only is the threat still there but it is now far bigger and growing. Its not only the major economies that have nuclear weapons but small tin pot dictatorships are now likely getting access.

Such as? The world's nuclear armed states possess a total of nearly 14,000 nuclear warheads; more than 90% of belong to Russia and the United States. Approximately 9,500 are in military service with the rest awaiting disarmament.
 
Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
Life has never been better and we have nothing to fear that hasn’t been endured by those before us
I agree life has never been better.

Point 1 Is actually a good ending that we choose ourselves. Its the one western society is aiming for even if we dont realise it.

Nuclear weopans in the hands of tin pot countries is not a problem that has been endured before. Neither is the capability to manafucture killer virus's in small low funded unregulated labs. Global governance is the solution to both these problems. We are in denial if we believe we have faced or resolved these problems.
 
Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
Our race? Or our species? Either way I really doubt that.



Doubtful. Pandemics of various sizes have been constant throughout human history including the largest of them all - the Black Death of the fourteenh century which killed approximately 200 million in Eurasia or smallpox in the Americas which killed about 56 million people. Spanish Flu killed about 50 milion people.



Such as? The world's nuclear armed states possess a total of nearly 14,000 nuclear warheads; more than 90% of belong to Russia and the United States. Approximately 9,500 are in military service with the rest awaiting disarmament.
Not sure your point on nuclear weopans. It only takes a few to change the course of human history.

The most important point is number 1 which you havent responded to.
 
Oct 17, 2000
18,944
16,595
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Fitzroy Football Club
Not sure your point on nuclear weopans. It only takes a few to change the course of human history.

Once armed, neither side has any incentive to initiate a conflict where nuclear weapons will be used.

The most important point is number 1 which you havent responded to.

Far-fetched in my view. In any case, I'm not sure why you've chosen 300 years as your time-frame.
 
I agree life has never been better.

Point 1 Is actually a good ending that we choose ourselves. Its the one western society is aiming for even if we dont realise it.

Nuclear weopans in the hands of tin pot countries is not a problem that has been endured before. Neither is the capability to manafucture killer virus's in small low funded unregulated labs. Global governance is the solution to both these problems. We are in denial if we believe we have faced or resolved these problems.

I hear you

For me, I can't help but be proud of how the world has improved the lives of so many. However if we are to look at the challenges ahead we have the distribution of wealth, war, disease, famine etc but that has always been the case.

In regards to the west, it is finished if it leaves itself vulnerable to attack with the rise of China and later India. Just like WW2 China is building autobahns, just like WW2 China is seeking "living space", just like WW2 China is looking at catching up on colonial influence (Africa, one belt, string of pearls), just like WW2 China's first casualties will be Chinese (HK is Austria), just like WW2 China's next focus will be energy (South China Sea/ Czech Republic), just like WW2 China will do a Poland (Taiwan, Philippines, Korea or India), just like WW2 China will seek to have Russia on their side only for Russia to turn on them when they are finally ready.

The question is, how many of us will survive a war when our energy and defence policy are stuffed? How will we feed our war machine with our lack of industrial capability? Despite being pessimistic about Australia's ability to survive a war, I'm confident life will go on for much of the world as it always has.
 
Sep 15, 2007
50,338
46,507
Where i need to be
AFL Club
Geelong
Once armed, neither side has any incentive to initiate a conflict where nuclear weapons will be used.



Far-fetched in my view. In any case, I'm not sure why you've chosen 300 years as your time-frame.
How is it far fetched? Its already happening. We already edit genes. You think we arent going to keep progressing with gene editing to improve the lives of our offspring?
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back