There are three key threats facing humanity. One of them will definitely end our race within the next three centuries. Probably less. So why the hell doesn't anyone talk about them?
First of all what aren't realistic threats to humanity.
The rise of robots is not a threat to humanity. There is no realistic scenario where robots decide the best course of action is to end the human race. Robots aren't designed by a single mad scientist who is vastly more advanced then the rest of the human race who then either accidentally/or deliberately programs a robot to kill everyone. Human progress is a group process. Robots also will never have wills of their own that results in them waking up and coordinating with each other to kill everyone. Intelligence and free will are completely separate things. Free will doesn't evolve from increased brain capacity (and yes for the typical party pooper who wants to point it out we are all aware that at a sub atomic level free will doesn't exist).
Man made climate change will not be a threat to humanity. It could of been and was something I would of been worried about in the nineties. But human progress in clean technologies means that we will never get to the point where it becomes serious enough to cause dramatic upheaval on a global population level. We will probably end up with 3-4 degrees of warming relative to pre-Industrial levels and that's only because human societies will be slow to embrace the technologies they already have. However the 8 plus degree changes that is potentially human extinction level is no longer a realistic possibility.
An asteroid is obviously a human level extinction threat. But we have no real reason to believe the threat is any bigger then usual over the next couple of centuries. It could hit but the threat level seems low so I'm not counting it.
So what are the three biggest threats. Counting backwards from weakest to biggest threat.
3) A killer virus. A virus that is highly infectious like Covid, has a period where the infected are asymptotic but contagious and has a high mortality rate. This threat is becoming much bigger not only because humans have much greater interaction with each other and our environment but because we now have the ability to create these virus's synthetically in small unregulated labs and this ability is growing.
2) Nuclear disaster. Humans for some reason have forgotten about this threat since the Cold War has ended. But not only is the threat still there but it is now far bigger and growing. Its not only the major economies that have nuclear weapons but small tin pot dictatorships are now likely getting access. Terrorists are also likely to get access at some point. It only takes one leader in a tin pot dictatorship on his death bed to say "Screw it I want to end the world". Just one. The probability of it occurring at some point is inevitable as long as the world is made up of 200 countries and terrorists organization have the capability to invade these countries. The solution to this is global governance but we are moving away from this now it seems.
1) Number one is a certainty if the others don't get us first. So what is it?
Humans will genetically engineer a new race that eventually will no longer be classified as human and become the new dominant species of the earth. We already have the capability to start playing around with the genetics of our offspring. This isn't science fiction anymore. It starts with reducing our likelihood of getting certain illnesses. But it will spread quickly from there. Reducing the aging process, increasing our intelligence and increasing our disposition away from anxiety and depression towards towards happiness. And it will continue to evolve from there. In a very short period of time the race that exists will have very little characteristics consistent with humans today. The gap will end up being far bigger than the gap between chimps and humans. Humans will then cease to exist. This could all take place in the next 100 years. But definitely will occur within the next 300 years unless of course society collapses before then due to one of the other threats. This is indeed our best outcome.
How does it make you feel knowing that humanity is coming to an end? We have existed for at least a couple of hundred thousand years. But we our now down to our last couple of centuries. Its kinds of sobering. Makes all our current political debates seem completely pointless. For those of us under 40 we are very likely to see the start of this shift towards a new species within our life times.
Should we try to stop this shift? Ban genetic engineering and at least delay the process for a couple of generations. Or do we embrace it realizing that those who replace us will have much more satisfying lives then we do?
First of all what aren't realistic threats to humanity.
The rise of robots is not a threat to humanity. There is no realistic scenario where robots decide the best course of action is to end the human race. Robots aren't designed by a single mad scientist who is vastly more advanced then the rest of the human race who then either accidentally/or deliberately programs a robot to kill everyone. Human progress is a group process. Robots also will never have wills of their own that results in them waking up and coordinating with each other to kill everyone. Intelligence and free will are completely separate things. Free will doesn't evolve from increased brain capacity (and yes for the typical party pooper who wants to point it out we are all aware that at a sub atomic level free will doesn't exist).
Man made climate change will not be a threat to humanity. It could of been and was something I would of been worried about in the nineties. But human progress in clean technologies means that we will never get to the point where it becomes serious enough to cause dramatic upheaval on a global population level. We will probably end up with 3-4 degrees of warming relative to pre-Industrial levels and that's only because human societies will be slow to embrace the technologies they already have. However the 8 plus degree changes that is potentially human extinction level is no longer a realistic possibility.
An asteroid is obviously a human level extinction threat. But we have no real reason to believe the threat is any bigger then usual over the next couple of centuries. It could hit but the threat level seems low so I'm not counting it.
So what are the three biggest threats. Counting backwards from weakest to biggest threat.
3) A killer virus. A virus that is highly infectious like Covid, has a period where the infected are asymptotic but contagious and has a high mortality rate. This threat is becoming much bigger not only because humans have much greater interaction with each other and our environment but because we now have the ability to create these virus's synthetically in small unregulated labs and this ability is growing.
2) Nuclear disaster. Humans for some reason have forgotten about this threat since the Cold War has ended. But not only is the threat still there but it is now far bigger and growing. Its not only the major economies that have nuclear weapons but small tin pot dictatorships are now likely getting access. Terrorists are also likely to get access at some point. It only takes one leader in a tin pot dictatorship on his death bed to say "Screw it I want to end the world". Just one. The probability of it occurring at some point is inevitable as long as the world is made up of 200 countries and terrorists organization have the capability to invade these countries. The solution to this is global governance but we are moving away from this now it seems.
1) Number one is a certainty if the others don't get us first. So what is it?
Humans will genetically engineer a new race that eventually will no longer be classified as human and become the new dominant species of the earth. We already have the capability to start playing around with the genetics of our offspring. This isn't science fiction anymore. It starts with reducing our likelihood of getting certain illnesses. But it will spread quickly from there. Reducing the aging process, increasing our intelligence and increasing our disposition away from anxiety and depression towards towards happiness. And it will continue to evolve from there. In a very short period of time the race that exists will have very little characteristics consistent with humans today. The gap will end up being far bigger than the gap between chimps and humans. Humans will then cease to exist. This could all take place in the next 100 years. But definitely will occur within the next 300 years unless of course society collapses before then due to one of the other threats. This is indeed our best outcome.
How does it make you feel knowing that humanity is coming to an end? We have existed for at least a couple of hundred thousand years. But we our now down to our last couple of centuries. Its kinds of sobering. Makes all our current political debates seem completely pointless. For those of us under 40 we are very likely to see the start of this shift towards a new species within our life times.
Should we try to stop this shift? Ban genetic engineering and at least delay the process for a couple of generations. Or do we embrace it realizing that those who replace us will have much more satisfying lives then we do?