Hypothetical

[cong8]

Thought I'd get in early

If Fev has a good year (80+goals), would you trade him for a top 3 pick in the super draft? (assuming we dont finish bottom 4 this year)

My thoughts are that we are fairly top heavy up forward atm (fisher, setanta, waite + possible talls in hartlett, lance, kennedy). I'd be quite willing to take a small hit up forward initially to gain a 10yr elite midfielder - if you take the 'worst' of the top 3 from 2001 (most would suggest hodge), you still have a very good player - one who would probably rank within the top 5 of our list for the next 10yrs.

In terms of fisher, waite, kennedy, setanta - I actually see Fisher as a better option at CHF than waite (your KPP) - will give you at least 2 goals a game (13/7games post knee, averaged 1.5 or so prior to knee) and should provide more once his body becomes fully developed - Given his marking prowess, a lift to 2.5goals/game would be enough to stake genuine claims at CHF (kernahan/carey etc only average 2.4 and 2.6/game from memory - though no doubt someone will correct me). As for waite - wouldnt mind seeing him at FF (would need to improve set shot kicking though). Setanta/Kennedy - worse case would be 10yrs each of bullocking CHF work along the lines of earl spalding (say 1-1.5goals/game).

Waite might fail at FF and end up playing midfield but unlike say west coast, the other 'tall' options in the forward line wouldnt be that bad.

Obvious comment would be what if the top 5 picks fail - my response is that if you want 'safety' for the early traded pick go for a genuine midfielder who can find the ball. On a top 3 pick you would be looking at players like ball, judd, hodge, deledio, cooney - worse case would be goddard and i could probably live with that. What happens to the player afterwards though depends on the club structure/direction - So long as he isnt turned into a TAGGER and can provide 10yrs of good service i'd be happy with the trade.


thoughts/comments?

 

[Salaryman]

its a good question...... i think we'd have to vastly improve our forward structure and delivery of the ball for Fev to kick 80+ this year...and in the practice matches he still looks really underdone.

Having said that, 80+ goal forwards don't grow on trees...so if he did hit his straps, it would be a huge "hit" to trade him away. IF your hypothetical was correct however (top 3) we could theoretically pick up a Hansen and/or Thorp and a Gibbs for example.....potentially a forward line including either of those guys, add a fit Kennedy crashing the packs and O'Hailpin and Fisher pinch hitting would probably more than make up for a loss of Fev IMO.

I doubt in this years draft any team would trade away a top 5-10 pick.....let alone what would normally be considered a priority pick (top 3) maybe low teens and a player?

in short, i wouldn't be too unhappy with that scenario, but i suspect it is a big hypothetical.

 

[Mr.Kennedy]

Thought I'd get in early

If Fev has a good year (80+goals), would you trade him for a top 3 pick in the super draft? (assuming we dont finish bottom 4 this year)

My thoughts are that we are fairly top heavy up forward atm (fisher, setanta, waite + possible talls in hartlett, lance, kennedy). I'd be quite willing to take a small hit up forward initially to gain a 10yr elite midfielder - if you take the 'worst' of the top 3 from 2001 (most would suggest hodge), you still have a very good player - one who would probably rank within the top 5 of our list for the next 10yrs.

In terms of fisher, waite, kennedy, setanta - I actually see Fisher as a better option at CHF than waite (your KPP) - will give you at least 2 goals a game (13/7games post knee, averaged 1.5 or so prior to knee) and should provide more once his body becomes fully developed - Given his marking prowess, a lift to 2.5goals/game would be enough to stake genuine claims at CHF (kernahan/carey etc only average 2.4 and 2.6/game from memory - though no doubt someone will correct me). As for waite - wouldnt mind seeing him at FF (would need to improve set shot kicking though). Setanta/Kennedy - worse case would be 10yrs each of bullocking CHF work along the lines of earl spalding (say 1-1.5goals/game).

Waite might fail at FF and end up playing midfield but unlike say west coast, the other 'tall' options in the forward line wouldnt be that bad.

Obvious comment would be what if the top 5 picks fail - my response is that if you want 'safety' for the early traded pick go for a genuine midfielder who can find the ball. On a top 3 pick you would be looking at players like ball, judd, hodge, deledio, cooney - worse case would be goddard and i could probably live with that. What happens to the player afterwards though depends on the club structure/direction - So long as he isnt turned into a TAGGER and can provide 10yrs of good service i'd be happy with the trade.


thoughts/comments?

Some good ideas here,but if we were at the level where Fev kicks 80 it would mean things are going pretty good and losing him would unsettle the balance.I also think these days a FF kicking 80 is the same as a FF kicking 100 5-6 years ago because of the way the game has become.IMO Waite is more suited to CHB and I hope he gets tried there.

 

[as0l0]

IMO Waite is more suited to CHB and I hope he gets tried there.

i certainly do agree with that.

 

[mojo31]

I think the point with Fev comes down to 1 simple thing. Is he a disruptive influence on the playing group as a whole. Will he hinder the development of the very young team we have. Does he hurt the Carlton brand and make us not as enticing to companies looking to sponsor us. Is he in the media for the wrong reasons?

If the answer is yes then at the end of the year he needs to go. Its not a question of how many goals he kicks or who replaces him then. It comes down to that we will not be moving forward with Fev in the team and we need to cut our losses and do a deal.

A Fev of 2003 to 2004 attitude and form is fine. A bit eccentric and a larrakin but basically played very well and I want him kept under those circumstances.

Fev of 2005 with an injured groin and not resting. Not geeting rehab done like he should. Going up to Sydney to watch a fight midweek when he should be resting his groin and getting rehab done. Inappropriate comments at the B+F. Peter Schwab comments. Getting suspended for eye gouging. Poor attitude on the ground in games and especially the Siants and Essendon game. Footy show skits making him look foolish. Playing out his contract negs on the Footy Show and dragging all of it out. Plus many more.
Some is a beatup but its to many incidenets to ignore.
A repeat of a similar year is to disruptive for mine and then trade him.

As for a trade then we cant expect a top 3 or a top 5 pick. I would accept a pick around 10 for him straight out. I would more like 2 picks and a first and second rounder. They dont have to be early ones.
Pick 15 and pick 31 is fine by me. They are the equivalent of pick 2 and pick 12 from the 2005 draft to let people know how the quality is stacking up. So thats Dale Thomas/Xavier Ellis/Nathan Jones territory for Fev. 2 of them.
Thats about the quality of picks in the first 2 rounds at this stage.

Hartlett for mine is the natural full forward we need. Setanta in the pocket and Kennedy at CHF. Waite on the flank and Fisher pushing right up and almost playing as a midfielder as he has great endurance now.
2 very quick opportunists and running player also in the mix to round out the forward line. Then of course players get roatated and a tall forward comes off and we go smaller and quicker depending on form and match ups as well.

So basically if Fev takes the best defender this year. Kicks 50, improved attitude and no real off field controversies then I want him kept.
If he kicks 60 but is petulent and devisive and a problem then I want him traded.
Its not so much the goals but how he does his job and how he contributes on the field and off it. Sometimes just measuring goals does not give a true indication of a players worth. He could kick 2 a week and take the best defender and play as a decoy. Chase and tackle when he needs to and create opportunities for others and I would be very happy with that contribution. Or he could average 3 a game. Give away free kicks, lead only when he wants, kick 6 1 week when he feels like it and then kick none the next when a bad umpoiring decision makes him want to crack the sads.
I player is trying in those scenarios and 1 is a "flat track bully" who might kick goals but only when it suits him and he gets good delivery.
I want a player who competes regardless of the delivery and the game.

For 350K a season I think its not to much to expect.

That is just my opinion though.

 

[HBF]

From what I can understand, Carlton did try to trade him at the end of last year, despite what was in the papers. And i'll tell you this, it wasn't just Richmond.

Agree with most of what Mojo has said, and I certainly wouldn't mind getting an early round 2 pick for him, given the depth of this years draft.

All in all, and IMO, Fevola will be traded at the end of the year. Just too many cons to way up against the pros.

 

[mojo31]

From what I can understand, Carlton did try to trade him at the end of last year, despite what was in the papers. And i'll tell you this, it wasn't just Richmond.

Agree with most of what Mojo has said, and I certainly wouldn't mind getting an early round 2 pick for him, given the depth of this years draft.

All in all, and IMO, Fevola will be traded at the end of the year. Just too many cons to way up against the pros.

Hmmmm. I dont remember that pm. I remember one to Bluemike and maybe Cypher.

Own up guys who has been spilling the story?

Spot on Hugebluesfan. More then Richmond expressed an interest. A lot of the stuff that is leaked is just PR spin and to put the heat on a player.

Denis "He wanted to go but nobody was interested".

really means "We wanted to put the pressure on him that we will trade him next year if he does not get his act together. In the mean time we will talk him down last year and say no club wanted him. That should get him focused. It worked for Lance in 2005. In the event we want to trade him I will get out the violins and sob in public how we despertaely desperately want to keep Fev under any circumstance. In the event a club might be interested then we will listen to there proposal. But there is no way we want to trade him. No way. Do you hear me? No way. Now lets just hear but your proposal is for the hell of it......

Always have to be able to interpret the Denis cliche to know what he means. Expect a better PR campaign about the Fev should the club want to do a deal. Something along the lines of Jon Hay/Ted Richards from last year.
Never seen Denis dudded on any deal yet and will not happen anytime soon I think.

 

[HBF]

^^^ Mojo, not sure what your talking about with the PM mate. Never sent you one. I just so happened to over hear at the practice match on Saturday that Fev was offered up to another club last year and apparently it had some momentum and then Fev pulled the pin. I cannot reveal the source as I do not know the name of the guy.

 

[murphster]

I think the point with Fev comes down to 1 simple thing. Is he a disruptive influence on the playing group as a whole. Will he hinder the development of the very young team we have. Does he hurt the Carlton brand and make us not as enticing to companies looking to sponsor us. Is he in the media for the wrong reasons?

If the answer is yes then at the end of the year he needs to go. Its not a question of how many goals he kicks or who replaces him then. It comes down to that we will not be moving forward with Fev in the team and we need to cut our losses and do a deal.

A Fev of 2003 to 2004 attitude and form is fine. A bit eccentric and a larrakin but basically played very well and I want him kept under those circumstances.

Fev of 2005 with an injured groin and not resting. Not geeting rehab done like he should. Going up to Sydney to watch a fight midweek when he should be resting his groin and getting rehab done. Inappropriate comments at the B+F. Peter Schwab comments. Getting suspended for eye gouging. Poor attitude on the ground in games and especially the Siants and Essendon game. Footy show skits making him look foolish. Playing out his contract negs on the Footy Show and dragging all of it out. Plus many more.
Some is a beatup but its to many incidenets to ignore.
A repeat of a similar year is to disruptive for mine and then trade him.

As for a trade then we cant expect a top 3 or a top 5 pick. I would accept a pick around 10 for him straight out. I would more like 2 picks and a first and second rounder. They dont have to be early ones.
Pick 15 and pick 31 is fine by me. They are the equivalent of pick 2 and pick 12 from the 2005 draft to let people know how the quality is stacking up. So thats Dale Thomas/Xavier Ellis/Nathan Jones territory for Fev. 2 of them.
Thats about the quality of picks in the first 2 rounds at this stage.

Hartlett for mine is the natural full forward we need. Setanta in the pocket and Kennedy at CHF. Waite on the flank and Fisher pushing right up and almost playing as a midfielder as he has great endurance now.
2 very quick opportunists and running player also in the mix to round out the forward line. Then of course players get roatated and a tall forward comes off and we go smaller and quicker depending on form and match ups as well.

So basically if Fev takes the best defender this year. Kicks 50, improved attitude and no real off field controversies then I want him kept.
If he kicks 60 but is petulent and devisive and a problem then I want him traded.
Its not so much the goals but how he does his job and how he contributes on the field and off it. Sometimes just measuring goals does not give a true indication of a players worth. He could kick 2 a week and take the best defender and play as a decoy. Chase and tackle when he needs to and create opportunities for others and I would be very happy with that contribution. Or he could average 3 a game. Give away free kicks, lead only when he wants, kick 6 1 week when he feels like it and then kick none the next when a bad umpoiring decision makes him want to crack the sads.
I player is trying in those scenarios and 1 is a "flat track bully" who might kick goals but only when it suits him and he gets good delivery.
I want a player who competes regardless of the delivery and the game.

For 350K a season I think its not to much to expect.

That is just my opinion though.

That pretty much sums it up on the Fev issue, bad attitude gone, good attitude stays.

 

[Silvagnis]

Hmmmm. I dont remember that pm. I remember one to Bluemike and maybe Cypher.

Own up guys who has been spilling the story?

Wasn't me and I've never had a PM from you.

If the draft is as good as you say it is and he has the same level of immaturity for the rest of the year I'd definitely trade him. I don't like his body language when I've seen him on the track and he just doesn't look fully committed when he's out there. Even Kennedy is recovering from injury but has great body language, trains like he's playing a game and was crashing the tackle bags at training with intensity.

But I'm greedy and I'd want more than the picks Mojo named for Fevola.

I hope one of the contenders crash again and realise they need a goalkicker to win a flag.

 

[BlueWorld]

^^^ Mojo, not sure what your talking about with the PM mate. Never sent you one. I just so happened to over hear at the practice match on Saturday that Fev was offered up to another club last year and apparently it had some momentum and then Fev pulled the pin. I cannot reveal the source as I do not know the name of the guy.

Do you believe everything you overhear from people you don't know?

 

[mojo31]

^^^ Mojo, not sure what your talking about with the PM mate. Never sent you one. I just so happened to over hear at the practice match on Saturday that Fev was offered up to another club last year and apparently it had some momentum and then Fev pulled the pin. I cannot reveal the source as I do not know the name of the guy.

Sorry mate. I was not so clear.

I sent a couple of pms to people saying that exact same thing maybe 2 months ago. Cannot remember who it was. Might have been more than 2.

You are spot on though that. Fev wanted to stay in the end. Seems to go against Denis saying that he wanted to go.

Hence my "how to interpret the Denis cliche" speech.

Its all water under the bridge now but 90% of the stuff in the media is way off from my experience on Carlton. Caro usually gets the politics about right but seems she was fed some nice bait about the CBF when the club was targetting the PP leasing arrangement back quite a long time ago. However sections of the board/her informants led her up the garden path as the board has shifted from one group to another with the lastest developments in the last 3 weeks.
I dont expect Caro to get the inside running anymore and would not advise anyone who reads her articles to expect she knows anything anymore.

Anybody wants me to explain this post will be met with a "shrug" from me.

Read between the lines and you should get the 'drift".

 

[mojo31]

Wasn't me and I've never had a PM from you.

If the draft is as good as you say it is and he has the same level of immaturity for the rest of the year I'd definitely trade him. I don't like his body language when I've seen him on the track and he just doesn't look fully committed when he's out there. Even Kennedy is recovering from injury but has great body language, trains like he's playing a game and was crashing the tackle bags at training with intensity.

But I'm greedy and I'd want more than the picks Mojo named for Fevola.

I hope one of the contenders crash again and realise they need a goalkicker to win a flag.

OMG. You have the same IP as Pivot.
















just kidding.

 

[HBF]

Do you believe everything you overhear from people you don't know?

The guys works for Carlton - that's why I believe him.

 

[OZBomb]

If Fevola has another year like last year, then I would expect he will be traded. We just don't need his bad attitude.

I would think the leading candidate would be Collingwood particularly if they make the 8 (which I think they will.)

Carlton will definitely target a big name this year if they finish last. Goddard might struggle to fit under that cap.

I'd be surprised if Pagan was retained this year if Princes Park's operational costs are taken over by the AFL.

Let's hope the season proper is more exciting than the next off-season shapes to be,

 

[cong8]

I think the point with Fev comes down to 1 simple thing. Is he a disruptive influence on the playing group as a whole. Will he hinder the development of the very young team we have. Does he hurt the Carlton brand and make us not as enticing to companies looking to sponsor us. Is he in the media for the wrong reasons?

If the answer is yes then at the end of the year he needs to go. Its not a question of how many goals he kicks or who replaces him then. It comes down to that we will not be moving forward with Fev in the team and we need to cut our losses and do a deal.

A Fev of 2003 to 2004 attitude and form is fine. A bit eccentric and a larrakin but basically played very well and I want him kept under those circumstances.

Fev of 2005 with an injured groin and not resting. Not geeting rehab done like he should. Going up to Sydney to watch a fight midweek when he should be resting his groin and getting rehab done. Inappropriate comments at the B+F. Peter Schwab comments. Getting suspended for eye gouging. Poor attitude on the ground in games and especially the Siants and Essendon game. Footy show skits making him look foolish. Playing out his contract negs on the Footy Show and dragging all of it out. Plus many more.
Some is a beatup but its to many incidenets to ignore.
A repeat of a similar year is to disruptive for mine and then trade him.

As for a trade then we cant expect a top 3 or a top 5 pick. I would accept a pick around 10 for him straight out. I would more like 2 picks and a first and second rounder. They dont have to be early ones.
Pick 15 and pick 31 is fine by me. They are the equivalent of pick 2 and pick 12 from the 2005 draft to let people know how the quality is stacking up. So thats Dale Thomas/Xavier Ellis/Nathan Jones territory for Fev. 2 of them.
Thats about the quality of picks in the first 2 rounds at this stage.

Hartlett for mine is the natural full forward we need. Setanta in the pocket and Kennedy at CHF. Waite on the flank and Fisher pushing right up and almost playing as a midfielder as he has great endurance now.
2 very quick opportunists and running player also in the mix to round out the forward line. Then of course players get roatated and a tall forward comes off and we go smaller and quicker depending on form and match ups as well.

So basically if Fev takes the best defender this year. Kicks 50, improved attitude and no real off field controversies then I want him kept.
If he kicks 60 but is petulent and devisive and a problem then I want him traded.
Its not so much the goals but how he does his job and how he contributes on the field and off it. Sometimes just measuring goals does not give a true indication of a players worth. He could kick 2 a week and take the best defender and play as a decoy. Chase and tackle when he needs to and create opportunities for others and I would be very happy with that contribution. Or he could average 3 a game. Give away free kicks, lead only when he wants, kick 6 1 week when he feels like it and then kick none the next when a bad umpoiring decision makes him want to crack the sads.
I player is trying in those scenarios and 1 is a "flat track bully" who might kick goals but only when it suits him and he gets good delivery.
I want a player who competes regardless of the delivery and the game.

For 350K a season I think its not to much to expect.

That is just my opinion though.

I guess that is where i differ from most posters - I would look to trade Fev after a VERY good year - not because of a poor season - just simple perceived market value. The other aspect of Fev is that he is no longer 'young' and given the state of our list and when we might expect to contend, I'd rather have younger players in the mix than a 28yo Fev.

Just on a top 3 trade - can anyone remember what croads year was like when he was initially traded to freo for pick 1? were there any off field issues etc?

 

[MeeSo]

I'd like to see Fev traded at the end of the year no matter what. The bulldogs desperately need a forward and Melbourne need a ready made replacement for Neitz so a 1st and 2nd round pick in return would be achievable. While it would place us in a stronger draft position it would also remove him as the face of the club and all the negatives that go with it. I'm sure the sponsors would prefer it and with improvement from Hartlett, Kennedy, Setanta, Fisher and Waite I think we can cover his loss.

 

[Muji]

btw Fev is turning 26 this year.. still has about 6-7 years if is fully fit every season. thats equivalent to about 300-350 goals which is not a bad return if he scores 50 a year.