I am a DT Spud!

[LemmingMaster]

Where did Tarquin finish the competition and do the bigfooty players do well.

Not that it really means much about knowledge of DT at times, but I finished roughly 140th. I played SuperCoach for the first time and finished 19th. I can tell you now that my knowledge of SC is limited.

There are some very solid posters on this forum, just take your time and you soon learn which people to trust and maybe match some of your ideals.

It is always great to watch a poster who ranked in the 1000's one season, moving up the rankings the following season.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

I laugh when people say they go for a player who: "kicks more than he handpasses, gets heaps of tackles" etc.

At the end of the day, I look at the raw points- it doesnt matter how he gets them. Look at the stats, and go from there. Subscribe to the Fantasy Freako and get the AFL Record- Dream Team Guide.

Kirk and Bolton lead for tackles and weren't anywhere close to the highest DT'ers.

If anything, don't go for a player who kicks more than he handpasses, go for the player who leads in kicks, period. In 08' Montagna was #1 for kicks, and look at the 09' he had.

 

[RolyPolyRioli]

There is really no way you can say the leading kick getter last year will turn into Montagna the following year.

Most of the points in DT are scored from kicks so it is good to look at players like Jason Gram who get 20 possessions with only 2 handballs, that is extra points. And someone who tackles generally would avoid really low scores.

The other thing i would throw in the mix is goals - I avoid goal kicking players like Fevola Lloyd and Bradshaw because they could score 30-40 when you need a league win.

I'm sure everyone has their own way of selecting players but points and averages is always something I look at but I like to see how the points were generated.

 

[Virgil]

I laugh when people say they go for a player who: "kicks more than he handpasses, gets heaps of tackles" etc.

At the end of the day, I look at the raw points- it doesnt matter how he gets them. Look at the stats, and go from there.

I disagree with this. Often those statements are indicative of the way a player will score.

An example of this would be Daniel Cross. Last season he averaged 25 possessions, 5.6 marks and 4.3 tackles per game, and still ended up with an average of only 94, because three out of every four of his possessions are handpasses. Any other midfielder with those numbers would have been averaging three figures.

RPR's example of key forwards is also one that comes up often. Being so reliant on marks and goals for their points, when they have a bad game they can put together some terrible scores. Two of those in a row and their price will plummet, allowing you to pick them up cheaper later on.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I'm the opposite - I focus on DT more than SC, and do much better in DT than SC.

Apart from the great advice already in this thread, don't pick almost identical starting teams in both competitions. I researched my DT, picked my 30 players, then picked a similar squad for SC. Players like Stanton, although they did well in SC, were much better in DT, and I'd have been better off picking a more SC-oriented player than a DT player.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Yeah but what did Daniel Cross score the year before?? Close to 94?

 

[54Dogs]

Yeah but what did Daniel Cross score the year before?? Close to 94?

96 in 2008
93 in 2007

No doubt kicking more helps. If you have 30 touches and turn 8 of your 20+ handballs into kicks the average goes up by 8 pg to 102.

That said, different players have different strengths and Cross has poor disposal so he won't be kicking more any time soon.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Exactly. He avg. 94 in the 2 years before that. It doesn't matter how he managed those scores, just that he did.

And look: this year he avg. 94 again.

Look at that scores they get. That is proof in itself.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Look, Gary Ablett Jr. had an avg. of 120 and he handpasses more than he kicks.

If a players kicks the ball everytime he gets is, but only averages 50, is he a good player to have in your DT?

 

[Virgil]

If a players kicks the ball everytime he gets is, but only averages 50, is he a good player to have in your DT?

Depends on how much he cost and how often he plays. A player that plays every game and averages 50 is definitely worth having if they are at a basement price.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

So irrelevant to the topic it's not funny.

Yeah, if a player avg's 50 compared to a player who avg's 20, then he is worth getting. But that is bloody obvious isnt it? We are not discussing value, idiot.

 

[Clonkers]

So irrelevant to the topic it's not funny.

Yeah, if a player avg's 50 compared to a player who avg's 20, then he is worth getting. But that is bloody obvious isnt it? We are not discussing value, idiot.

You asked a question and Virgil answered it, i dont see whats so idiotic about that.

 

[Virgil]

We are not discussing value.

Looking for value is one of the biggest reasons to look at a player's scoring history. To use the Cross example again, his previous averages suggest he might not have much upside on his 94 average because of his poor kick-to-handball ratio, so perhaps it is best to overlook him for someone who represents better value.

 

[54Dogs]

So irrelevant to the topic it's not funny.

Yeah, if a player avg's 50 compared to a player who avg's 20, then he is worth getting. But that is bloody obvious isnt it? We are not discussing value, idiot.

Settle pal, comments like that belong in the Bay not here.

Make your point, stay on topic, don't get personal.

 

[RolyPolyRioli]

Well said 54Dogs that was really unnecessary.

You can ignore the way a player gets his points if he is an established gun, but if you can honesty say that is a sensible way to approach other players I think it is the wrong tack. For example a ruckman should get a certain amount of points from hitouts and if you know they are up against an inexperienced ruckman for say the first 3 rounds you should consider that. Also as I mentioned someone like Jason Gram is more attractive to DT because he kicks a lot. As has been mentioned Daniel Cross doesn't - this coupled with his inability to score goals makes him less attractive for the midfield than he used to be.

I don't even see why you would play DT if you didn't care about how the points are arrived at - Super Coach I get it because it seems random at times.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

..Super Coach I get it because it seems random at times.

Random at times? I reckon the entire SC scoring system is random.

 

[Subanite]

Also as I mentioned someone like Jason Gram is more attractive to DT because he kicks a lot.

I've always liked the players that have the ability to score big with minimal possessions. I seem to remember Bartel last year gaining less than 20 possessions and scoring ~109 points.

I was looking at Bartel's game thinking it was terrible, then found out his DT score and being I was shocked. Even on his off days, he seems to have the ability to post a large score.

While I've watched a Cross/Kerr with their 30 possessions to produce scores of ~90. While not terrible, you would hope for a higher return.

This might not be the thread for this discussion, but just looking at the genie, I noticed that it calculates standard deviations. Not sure if many people use that part of the program? but it is something to consider. I never had a program to work out the figures for me, but part of my initial team selection process was avoiding players with high variations in scores.

In some ways it worked for me in previous seasons, staying away from those TALL forwards. A players standard deviation in scores could be something worth considering. (Still unsure if many people remember SD from their school days or have even learnt SD yet.)

Is this a case of over thinking DT?

I sometimes feel that is my weakness, I guess I am a "spud" for over thinking. It leads to finding a negative in all options and at times making a some what simple decision, difficult. I've spent many nervous hours looking at the pros and cons of some trading decisions. I am jealous at times of those Monday morning traders, it all seems so easy.

Another thing to add to the Spud debate, is NEVER TRADE DAYS BEFORE LOCKOUT. Sorry, my post has taken many different directions and that just came to mind.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Well thats something i looked into last year SUBANITE, i looked into SD of forwards and premium type players. I also tried to pick players that i thought wouldnt fall in price, because if you think their gonna fall in price than you should probably not select them straight up.

Deledio
SP = $332 600
Below 85% of SP = Did not go under 85% of SP
Standard Deviation = 22.07
Lowest % of SP = 99% of SP (Round 3)
Round 1-11 SD = 18.68
Round 1-11 Average = 92
Round 11-22 SD = 23.73
Round 11-22 Average = 103.18
HS = 136 (Round 22)
LS = 51 (Round 13)
Difference = 136 – 51 = 85
Round 1-11 100’s = 4
Round 11-22 100’s = 7 
Total 100’s = 11

Franklin
SP = $344 600
Below 85% of SP = Did not go under 85% of SP
SD = 27.88
Lowest % of SP = 95.5% (Round 17)
Round 1-11 SD = 26.98
Round 1-11 Average = 103.09
Round 11-22 SD = 27.18
Round 11-22 Average = 89.81
HS = 146
LS = 49
Difference = 146 – 49 = 97
Round 1-11 100’s = 6
Round 11-22 100’s = 4
Total 100’s = 10

Riewoldt (premium value)
SP = $431 500
Below 85% of SP = 6 rounds under 85% of SP (Rounds 7-13)
SD = 26.47
Lowest % of SP = 74% (Round 10)
Round 1-11 SD = 19.97
Round 1-11 Average = 82
Round 11-22 SD = 21.16
Round 11-22 Average = 115.27
HS = 152
LS = 55
Difference = 152 – 55 = 97
Round 1-11 100’s = 4
Round 11-22 100’s = 9
Total 100’s = 13

Gianciracusa
SP = $357 500
Below 85% of SP = Did not go under 85% of SP
SD = 18.47
Lowest % of SP = 91% (Round 20)
Round 1-11 SD = 18.29
Round 1-11 Average = 98.18
Round 11-22 SD = 17.22
Round 11-22 Average = 88.09
HS = 131
LS = 57
Difference = 131 – 57 = 74 
Round 1-11 100’s = 4
Round 11-22 100’s = 3
Total 100’s = 7

Steve Johnson (premium price)
SP = $412 100
Below 85% of SP = 4 rounds under 85% of SP (Rounds 9, 20, 21 and 22)
SD = 23.31
Lowest % of SP = 79% (Round 20)
Round 1-11 SD = 27.55
Round 1-11 Average = 90.27
Round 11-22 SD = 17.92
Round 11-22 Average = 93.81
HS = 163
LS = 53
Difference = 163 – 53 = 110 
Round 1-11 100’s = 3
Round 11-22 100’s = 2
Total 100’s = 5

Matthew Pavlich (premium price)
SP = 443 000
Below 85% of SP = Did not go under 85% of SP
SD = 20.54
Lowest % of SP = 86% (Round 6)
Round 1-11 SD = 17.64
Round 1-11 Average = 94.45
Round 11-22 SD = 22.28
Round 11-22 Average = 106
HS = 148
LS = 51
Difference = 148 – 51 = 97 
Round 1-11 100’s = 2
Round 11-22 100’s = 5 (only 8 games)
Total 100’s = 7

Matthew Richardson
SP = 373 900
Below 85% of SP = Did not go under 85% of SP
SD = 33.01
Lowest % of SP = 95% (Round 3)
Round 1-11 SD = 25.63
Round 1-11 Average = 102.09
Round 11-22 SD = 39.61
Round 11-22 Average = 92.55
HS = 154
LS = 48
Difference = 154 – 48 = 106
Round 1-11 100’s = 6
Round 11-22 100’s = 3
Total 100’s = 9

Alan Didak
SP = 284 900
Below 85% of SP = Did not go under 85% of SP
SD = 22.73
Lowest % of SP = 108% (Round 3) or best to picked from start, did not fall from SP
Round 1-11 SD = 15.61
Round 1-11 Average = 102.72
Round 11-22 SD = 26.26
Round 11-22 Average = 82.26
HS = 128
LS = 44
Difference = 128 – 44 = 84
Round 1-11 100’s = 6
Round 11-22 100’s = 2 (7 games)
Total 100’s = 8

It didnt really help that much, It would be interesting to further investigate this. Its sort of similar to not selecting a player because they usually start slow and thus lose price early. But key forwards would have a higher SD in their scores than others, so this i why their not picked early. Sometimes it doesnt refer to players like Pavlich. This is hwy im questioning starting Buddy Franklin. Although underpriced he could have a stinker like he did quite a bit last year and score poorly and drop severly in price. Plus the game he is missing could hurt me. ATM i have 2 rookies starting on the field and it would make it 3 for round 1, which is alot and not knowing the sides is very risky.

 

[Subanite]

I've never put my thoughts into that much work Dunn - Well Done, I guess my selections are slightly more based around gut feelings.

I just tend to be drawn to forwards that are more midfielders than the conventional forwards. The Deledio, Didak, B Johnson, Goodwin, Higgins styled forwards over the Volt, Pavlich, Franklin styled forwards.

Pity it did not work for you last year, still something worth considering.