If.............................

[No 1 Draft Pick]

M Stevens plays 22 minor round games

AND Hart plays 22 minor round games

AND our other top liners consistently play to their ability in 22 minor round games (Ricuitto, Mc Leod, Edwards)

AND our real quality but injury prone players like Welsh, Goodwin (and possibly Burton) play 22 minor round games

AND some of our quality but inconsistent players like Ladhams, Bode and Biglands play well all year

AND our young quality developing players move up another level (Johncock, Mc Gregor, Thompson, Reilly, Hentschel, Rutten and friends)


Could the Crows be a top 4-5 chance? Or would we still only be 6-8 in a best case scenario?

IMHO, IF all the above happens we could be 5 or 6 next year. We still couldnt compete with the biggest guns (Power, Lions, Saints and possible Cats/Eagles) but would be immediately below them on the ladder.

What I am asking is if all goes as well as possible whats our best case finish?

A few IFs though

 

[Mad Dog]

I think best case is 7th with our favourable draw.

you pretty much deduced the answer my saying that The smears, Brions, Cats, Weegles, saints, and I think Sydney - are all in front of us.

We will be competing with Freo, Melbourne, North, Essendon for the 7th and 8th spots.

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Only.

Very optimystic IMHO but if correct this little black duck would be very happy.

Best 8-9 and worst 12.

 

[LBJ23]

I think it's a possibility, if everyone's healthy we can give it a big crack, i'm remaining very positive for next year.

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

I think it's a possibility, if everyone's healthy we can give it a big crack, i'm remaining very positive for next year.

Whats possible in your view LBJ? Top 4-5 or top 6-8 ?

 

[Port01]

anything is possible
if the camries can play well at home they are a good chance of making the 8
if they can string together a few away wins that puts them top 6

 

[noddy]

M Stevens plays 22 minor round games

AND Hart plays 22 minor round games

AND our other top liners consistently play to their ability in 22 minor round games (Ricuitto, Mc Leod, Edwards)

AND our real quality but injury prone players like Welsh, Goodwin (and possibly Burton) play 22 minor round games

AND some of our quality but inconsistent players like Ladhams, Bode and Biglands play well all year

AND our young quality developing players move up another level (Johncock, Mc Gregor, Thompson, Reilly, Hentschel, Rutten and friends)


Could the Crows be a top 4-5 chance? Or would we still only be 6-8 in a best case scenario?

IMHO, IF all the above happens we could be 5 or 6 next year. We still couldnt compete with the biggest guns (Power, Lions, Saints and possible Cats/Eagles) but would be immediately below them on the ladder.

What I am asking is if all goes as well as possible whats our best case finish?

A few IFs though

"If" the above became a reality then a position in the top 4 is a real possibility.

However if Stevo & Benny only manage half a season & our 2nd tier group don't all rise to the occasion then even making the 8 would seem out of reach.

 

[AdelaideFan]

Perhaps wishful thinking but I think we are a genuine chance to make the eight. I am looking forward to a trip to melb at the end of the year. In saying this I think the worst years are ahead of us though.

 

[macca23]

I've got a $100 bet with tredders16, with my money saying that we will make the 8.

In my synopsis in the thread "Adelaide 2005", I forecast a result of 7 to 10, based on normal luck in running and no major injuries to key players for prolonged periods. A 50-50 call as to whether we make the 8 or not.

But in the very very unlikely event that all the Christmas goodies came at once as No 1 Draft Pick specified, then we would surely have to move up to the 4 to 6 bracket, wouldn't we?

That won't happen though - Father Christmas is never that kind!!

 

[PAfolwr]

I never look at teams in terms of players, but rather in terms of positional blocks.
If Stevo is fit for the whole year AND Hentschell develops more, plus Burton has a good year in the forward line, you have potentially a very good forward line.
If your main midfielders have a good year and the next tier plays well, you have a V-good to great midfield.
If Hart plays well and McGregor has a good year, then you will have a solid-ish back line.
Your ruck division is not as good IMO as you lot rate them, but still good to V-good.

So overall, if all goes well, top four is not out of the question, but will also depend on how Craig coaches. That is unknown at this stage.

However, the flip side is that if all goes well and all your older players play well, plus the second tier players play all your games, then you will stifle the development of your "third" tier players.

IMO you have good "first" tier players, potentially good "third" tier players and not so good ageing "second" tier players, by having everything going well you will be sort of going for a premiership (again) in a year where you most likely will not have a chance of getting one, and potentially cause long term damage (again). If that makes sense.

This year you lot should really try and speed up the development of your third tier players while they still have top shelf players to learn from. Forget all about ladder position, as long as it isn't an embarrassing one.

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

I've got a $100 bet with tredders16, with my money saying that we will make the 8.

An Investment banker would be telling Tredders16 to arbitrage and put $90 on the Crows at $2.40 with Centrebet. Either way, he cant lose


That won't happen though - Father Christmas is never that kind!!

Bad Santa

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

This year you lot should really try and speed up the development of your third tier players while they still have top shelf players to learn from. QUOTE]

Some good points in this post. It comes down to our priorities for this year. Im sure they will go full tilt at the 8 - if this becomes realistically out of reach mid-late season then time to fully blood the youngsters and make some hard decisions come seasons end

 

[crowsarethebest]

I think we are going to be around the 7-12 mark. If wvery thing fires we will be around the 5th position mark but thers "ifs" so i wouldn't back us in the 8 just yet

 

[macca23]

An Investment banker would be telling Tredders16 to arbitrage and put $90 on the Crows at $2.40 with Centrebet. Either way, he cant lose


That won't happen though - Father Christmas is never that kind!!

Bad Santa

I was only telling tredders16 this morning that he got a damn good deal, considering I could have got $2 40 with Centrebet.

He won't lay it off - he's too greedy!!

 

[LBJ23]

No 1 draft pick

Whats possible in your view LBJ? Top 4-5 or top 6-8 ?

I think we could be in the top six, think we are highly underated by others in the competition, which will come in handy early on in the season, maybe top four is a little bit to over zealous, but stranger things have happened, think craigy is gonna be a very good coach, long term for us.

 

[Stiffy_18]

M Stevens plays 22 minor round games

AND Hart plays 22 minor round games

AND our other top liners consistently play to their ability in 22 minor round games (Ricuitto, Mc Leod, Edwards)

AND our real quality but injury prone players like Welsh, Goodwin (and possibly Burton) play 22 minor round games

AND some of our quality but inconsistent players like Ladhams, Bode and Biglands play well all year

AND our young quality developing players move up another level (Johncock, Mc Gregor, Thompson, Reilly, Hentschel, Rutten and friends)


Could the Crows be a top 4-5 chance? Or would we still only be 6-8 in a best case scenario?

IMHO, IF all the above happens we could be 5 or 6 next year. We still couldnt compete with the biggest guns (Power, Lions, Saints and possible Cats/Eagles) but would be immediately below them on the ladder.

What I am asking is if all goes as well as possible whats our best case finish?

A few IFs though

IF (and its a monsterous if) everything you said happens then we can be a top 4 side (subject to Craig coaching well)

In this competition the difference between a top 4 side and a bottom 4 side is only a couple of good players. If Stevens and Hart played all games this year I reckon we wouldn't have had as bad a year as we did.

The competition is pretty much even and the clubs can make a dramatic improvements or falls from year to year. Last year Melbourne were a lottery team, this year they were top 4 for most of the year. If all those scenarios you mentioned turn out to be true then we could very easily make the top 4. Anyone remember 2002??????

But as macca23 said, Santa is never that kind I expect us to either be a revelation next year or to just miss out on the finals.

 

[Bockchoy67]

I never like to be too optimistic during the pre-season.

However I do expect us to improve marginally. If everything goes right there is a chance for a top 8 spot, but knowing the AFC we won't get that much luck.

Right now I believe we will finish around 9-11 on the ladder.

I do not expect us to make the finals. If we do, that'll be a bonus. All I want right now is for our second-tier players to stand up and our young players to show consistent positive signs.

 

[NikkiNoo]

I agree that those other teams are ahead of us, but the afl these days is still fairly close amongst the teams. IF we do make the 8, we proved it in 97 and 98 that a desire to win and a little bit of luck from the footy gods can go a long way

 

[maccas_no1]

I think being realistic 7-10 all going well, a disaster of 2005 could see us slip 13-16 Key players on the park week in week out a key, consistancy in front of goal, and a good game plan are what is needed

 

[outback jack]

think that some of you need to get in touch with reality, really,


These teams are all miles in front:
port
bris
saints
wcoast
freo
geelong


and for
melbourne good young players coming through
essendon sheedy never fails
collingwood good draw
sydney should be better than us, actualy have a good coach


only teams that we have a chance with are

kangaroos
wbulldogs
richmond
hawthorn
carlton

and these teams have the best young talent especially the bulldogs

its unlikely to happen but we're a chance to finish last if none of the second graders step up

 

[- PC -]

I think pafolwr summed it nicely when talking 'blocks'' and I dont see our best blocks been any better than 7th based on NO1D scenario.

Port have Tredrea, Lions have Brown..well for the second third on anyway, Saints have Yahvoldt and Gehrig, Cats have Ottens (potentially but I dont rate him) ,Melbourne have Neitz

But I will say a running game can overcome those shortcomings, and I would rather have carriers than a beacon a team aims for. I always believe if you shut those guys down others have to step up.


OH and is outback jack someone we know or am I really too positive for my own good?

 

[RooDog]

I think pafolwr summed it nicely when talking 'blocks'' and I dont see our best blocks been any better than 7th based on NO1D scenario.

Port have Tredrea, Lions have Brown..well for the second third on anyway, Saints have Yahvoldt and Gehrig, Cats have Ottens (potentially but I dont rate him) ,Melbourne have Schwartz .

But I will say a running game can overcome those shortcomings, and I would rather have carriers than a beacon a team aims for. I always believe if you shut those guys down others have to step up.


OH and is outback jack someone we know or am I really too positive for my own good?

i hope you mean Neitz, god i think with his knees the way they are you and i could play better than schwarta.

ps. knew who you meant just wanted to be a smart ar#e

 

[tinman]

An Investment banker would be telling Tredders16 to arbitrage and put $90 on the Crows at $2.40 with Centrebet. Either way, he cant lose


That won't happen though - Father Christmas is never that kind!!

Bad Santa

A $60 bet would be a better e/w. $40 in front if the Crows don't make it but $44 if they do.

I reckon if everything goes our way as posted by No1DP then we would be a top 4 finish. The truth is that now the gap between top & bottom teams is pretty narrow thanks to the draft and salary cap.

If you just look at the games lost by narrow margins, if we pick ALL these games up we wil finish top 4-6.

The truth is also that everything doesn't go your own way and we will not win all of our close encounters. Our depth will be tested and our younger players will have bad weeks. That's the reality.

It would be great to make the finals next year, but I think that themost important thing for us now is to be developing some of the younger players (and sorting out which ones of them can play) with a view to having a decent dip in a couple of years - best case scenario. If we can do that, be competitive and see some talent coming through I'll be happy.

I think people need to be fair to Craig. He hasn't inherited the best squad on earth and realistically the Carey deal set us back a couple of years.

We will be a premiership team again though - it will just take awhile. Early days, but at least now I'm confident we are heading in the right direction. I can't say the same of the period under Ayres.

 

[craigster]

think that some of you need to get in touch with reality, really,


These teams are all miles in front:
port
bris
saints
wcoast
freo
geelong


and for
melbourne good young players coming through
essendon sheedy never fails
collingwood good draw
sydney should be better than us, actualy have a good coach


only teams that we have a chance with are

kangaroos
wbulldogs
richmond
hawthorn
carlton

and these teams have the best young talent especially the bulldogs

its unlikely to happen but we're a chance to finish last if none of the second graders step up

Although rather negative the reality is that because of our aeging players finishing below 10th may be a distinct possibility. There are two ways to approach this either we go with those second tier players who have not performed in the past or we go with youth ala what the bulldogs did and suffer short term pain for long term gain. It just depends on how courageous the match committee is .I personally believe going with youth will provide a positive platform for the future. But then again maybe this is defeatist given that craigy has not really made major changes to last years list other than replacing retirees. So he obviously sees something in these second tier players that impresses. By the way as a new member i have enjoyed reading the majority of these postings with most being insightful and well constructed.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

think that some of you need to get in touch with reality, really,


These teams are all miles in front:
port
bris
saints
wcoast
freo
geelong


and for
melbourne good young players coming through
essendon sheedy never fails
collingwood good draw
sydney should be better than us, actualy have a good coach


only teams that we have a chance with are

kangaroos
wbulldogs
richmond
hawthorn
carlton

and these teams have the best young talent especially the bulldogs

its unlikely to happen but we're a chance to finish last if none of the second graders step up

On paper what you say is mostly true, but things aren't always that straight forward, as it is unlikely that all things (such as injuries, form) will be even. There are usually surprises, both over & under performers v expectations every year.

eg. In answer to a couple of your points - the Pies had a good draw last year, but we still finished above them. The Dees are in an odd year - can they reverse their yo-yo trend?

With respect to the thread question - If everything went our way, particularly keeping our core players on the park, we could make the top-4. However, as has been pointed out, this is unlikely. Given our lack of depth, realistically I see us finishing somewhere between 6th-12th, depending how luck runs our way.