If.............................

[Kane McGoodwin]

I never look at teams in terms of players, but rather in terms of positional blocks.
If Stevo is fit for the whole year AND Hentschell develops more, plus Burton has a good year in the forward line, you have potentially a very good forward line.
If your main midfielders have a good year and the next tier plays well, you have a V-good to great midfield.
If Hart plays well and McGregor has a good year, then you will have a solid-ish back line.
Your ruck division is not as good IMO as you lot rate them, but still good to V-good.

So overall, if all goes well, top four is not out of the question, but will also depend on how Craig coaches. That is unknown at this stage.

However, the flip side is that if all goes well and all your older players play well, plus the second tier players play all your games, then you will stifle the development of your "third" tier players.

IMO you have good "first" tier players, potentially good "third" tier players and not so good ageing "second" tier players, by having everything going well you will be sort of going for a premiership (again) in a year where you most likely will not have a chance of getting one, and potentially cause long term damage (again). If that makes sense.

This year you lot should really try and speed up the development of your third tier players while they still have top shelf players to learn from. Forget all about ladder position, as long as it isn't an embarrassing one.

Good analysis.

I think we won't have an embarassing year as long as we keep all our tier 1 players on the park for most games. Even doing this, I believe we can develop the 3rd teir players & stay competitive - it's just it will be an the expense of some of the 2nd tier players, who have had plenty of chances any way.

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Although rather negative the reality is that because of our aeging players finishing below 10th may be a distinct possibility. There are two ways to approach this either we go with those second tier players who have not performed in the past or we go with youth ala what the bulldogs did and suffer short term pain for long term gain. It just depends on how courageous the match committee is .I personally believe going with youth will provide a positive platform for the future. But then again maybe this is defeatist given that craigy has not really made major changes to last years list other than replacing retirees. So he obviously sees something in these second tier players that impresses. By the way as a new member i have enjoyed reading the majority of these postings with most being insightful and well constructed.

Welcome to the club craigster, good to have you here and by the looks of it a really good thinker as well. Thats what we both (BF and the AFC) need thinking outside the square, and not just fence sitters, dummy spitters, and agreeers all.

 

[whity26]

M Stevens plays 22 minor round games

AND Hart plays 22 minor round games

AND our other top liners consistently play to their ability in 22 minor round games (Ricuitto, Mc Leod, Edwards)

AND our real quality but injury prone players like Welsh, Goodwin (and possibly Burton) play 22 minor round games

AND some of our quality but inconsistent players like Ladhams, Bode and Biglands play well all year

AND our young quality developing players move up another level (Johncock, Mc Gregor, Thompson, Reilly, Hentschel, Rutten and friends)


Could the Crows be a top 4-5 chance? Or would we still only be 6-8 in a best case scenario?

IMHO, IF all the above happens we could be 5 or 6 next year. We still couldnt compete with the biggest guns (Power, Lions, Saints and possible Cats/Eagles) but would be immediately below them on the ladder.

What I am asking is if all goes as well as possible whats our best case finish?

A few IFs though

if u guys dont finish on the bottom or second last you have done very well. dont rate your list at all!!!

 

[PAfolwr]

if u guys dont finish on the bottom or second last you have done very well. dont rate your list at all!!!

That's probably because you haven't watched them play enough to know just how good they could be IF all their players are on the park and (these players) have an injury free season.

 

[macca23]

if u guys dont finish on the bottom or second last you have done very well. dont rate your list at all!!!

Then how will you feel in round 6 if the Kangaroos lose to a team that you rate in the bottom 2?

Odds from Centrebet:

WIN PREMIERSHIP


ADELAIDE 41.00

KANGAROOS 81.00

MAKE TOP 8

ADELAIDE 2.40

KANGAROOS 3.25

Looks like your mob are rated by the bookie boys as an even greater bunch of scrubbers.

People in glasshouses shouldn't............

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Between 7-13. I only hope guys like Krugs, Schuie, Watts and other youngsters are given valuable game time. Our best 22 isn't a top 4 side.

 

[Damien_R1]

I remember watching Melbourne in 2003 and they were absolute crap. No joke, they were playing some awful football.

Come year 2004, they got belted by Hawthorn in the first round and was on top of the table late in the year. They finished 5th at the end of the minor round which was a fair achievement considering how poorly they fared in 2003.

Their two gun draftees, Sylvia and Mclean were not responsible in any definitive way for their rise back up the ladder, which would indicate the second tier players lifted their games to a new level and along with their senior players firing, they were playing some very good team football.

Given the above Melbourne example, there is no reason why we cannot achieve the same, as long as the players believe it. A change of attitude in some and a little luck will go a long way.

 

[PAfolwr]

Between 7-13. I only hope guys like Krugs, Schuie, Watts and other youngsters are given valuable game time. Our best 22 isn't a top 4 side.

I agree with the above apart from your last statement.
It also feels funny that for a couple of years now I have been debating on this board against your (this board that is) overstating the importance of a top shelf midfield, and now I feel that I have to debate for the opposite side.

I do believe that people on here that predict the best possible outcome for the Crows not to be scraping into the top 4 are understating the value of your midfield by as much as people on here overstated it a year or two back.
Your best possible outcome for your midfield has not changed. It is great.
Clark will tap the ball to your midfielders, Roo, McLeod and Goodwin are on the very top shelf. You need one more top shelf player to be one of the very best midfields again.
Will Reilly step up? Will Johncock get fitter? Will Bode play as good as he can? Will..., will..., will...

Your defence is solid.
Potentially your forward line is good IF all goes well.

Top 4 is your best outcome. Chances of it happening are not very good at all, very very slim actually, but possible.

Personally I think that your chances of making the eight are not very good at all, but that doesn't stop your best possible outcome being top four if everything goes well.
Chances of a premiership are zippo though.

 

[Markthirtytwo]

I agree with the above apart from your last statement.
It also feels funny that for a couple of years now I have been debating on this board against your (this board that is) overstating the importance of a top shelf midfield, and now I feel that I have to debate for the opposite side.

I do believe that people on here that predict the best possible outcome for the Crows not to be scraping into the top 4 are understating the value of your midfield by as much as people on here overstated it a year or two back.
Your best possible outcome for your midfield has not changed. It is great.
Clark will tap the ball to your midfielders, Roo, McLeod and Goodwin are on the very top shelf. You need one more top shelf player to be one of the very best midfields again.
Will Reilly step up? Will Johncock get fitter? Will Bode play as good as he can? Will..., will..., will...

Your defence is solid.
Potentially your forward line is good IF all goes well.

Top 4 is your best outcome. Chances of it happening are not very good at all, very very slim actually, but possible.

Personally I think that your chances of making the eight are not very good at all, but that doesn't stop your best possible outcome being top four if everything goes well.
Chances of a premiership are zippo though.

Talk about confusion here.
Thats what I call a "springer" of a quote.
A smear coming onto our board and actually springing to his own arguments.

 

[PAfolwr]

Talk about confusion here.
Thats what I call a "springer" of a quote.
A smear coming onto our board and actually springing to his own arguments.

Now I am confused.
Springing to his own arguments?

If you are having a go at me, how about being a bit more clear?

 

[PAfolwr]

Question: Compare players

2003 form of:
Bickley
Burns
Carey
Massie
Perrie
Shirley
Smart
Stenglein

Vs best potential 2005 form of:
Begley
Doughty
Hentschel
Jericho
Johncock
McGregor
Rutten
Thompson

 

[Mad Dog]

I agree with the above apart from your last statement.
It also feels funny that for a couple of years now I have been debating on this board against your (this board that is) overstating the importance of a top shelf midfield, and now I feel that I have to debate for the opposite side.

I do believe that people on here that predict the best possible outcome for the Crows not to be scraping into the top 4 are understating the value of your midfield by as much as people on here overstated it a year or two back.
Your best possible outcome for your midfield has not changed. It is great.
Clark will tap the ball to your midfielders, Roo, McLeod and Goodwin are on the very top shelf. You need one more top shelf player to be one of the very best midfields again.
Will Reilly step up? Will Johncock get fitter? Will Bode play as good as he can? Will..., will..., will...

Your defence is solid.
Potentially your forward line is good IF all goes well.

Top 4 is your best outcome. Chances of it happening are not very good at all, very very slim actually, but possible.

Personally I think that your chances of making the eight are not very good at all, but that doesn't stop your best possible outcome being top four if everything goes well.
Chances of a premiership are zippo though.

you make a valid point PAfolwr....the veiled jibes get people on the defensive though !!

It's true that our midfield is still potentially rated in the top 2 or 3 in the league....Reilly and Goody are good additions together with Edwards Macca and Roo.

Whether this converts into top 4 finish is another matter but our personnel isn't materially different from 2003 so that is a positive.

my analysis of where we will finish takes into account our reasonably favourable draw......but it always comes down to "who can we displace in the 8".......that's why I'm thinking 7th might be top of the range.

 

[Cap]

I think our best chance of success this year comes with our defence, they will really need to stand up especially with the potential forward line issues and a newer midfield, if we can be like geelong and really restrict opposition teams (while still attempting to entertain the crowds) we will be in with a much better chance of moving into the top 8, I dont think open attacking football with help us this year unless the likes un Kruger, Watts and co become over night superstars

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

It's true that our midfield is still potentially rated in the top 2 or 3 in the league....Reilly and Goody are good additions together with Edwards Macca and Roo.

People please dont forget Scott Thompson - this boy looks a fairly good replacement for Kane Johnson and IMHO is probably a starting midfielder - ahead of Reilly/Gooey/Stiffy

I reckon he will be in the top 7 come B&F - assuming a good injury run

 

[Mad Dog]

People please dont forget Scott Thompson - this boy looks a fairly good replacement for Kane Johnson and IMHO is probably a starting midfielder - ahead of Reilly/Gooey/Stiffy

I reckon he will be in the top 7 come B&F - assuming a good injury run

....you're right......I'm 6 hours away from being on leave for a month and Thommo slipped my mind !!

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

....you're right......I'm 6 hours away from being on leave for a month and Thommo slipped my mind !!

What are your plans MD? Any travel or staying in ADL (and watching the boys train on occasion)

 

[Mad Dog]

What are your plans MD? Any travel or staying in ADL (and watching the boys train on occasion)

I'm hanging around town for most of the time....nothing more planned than beach in the mornings, Middleton might get a visit every now and then !!....a bit of work around home (landscaping my backyard), and also I'll be trying to get to some training sessions at WL. We will probably do some overnighters here and there also.

I've got nothing major planned - which is good for a change....just looking forward to going with the flow.....

 

[noddy]

I'm hanging around town for most of the time....nothing more planned than beach in the mornings, Middleton might get a visit every now and then !!....a bit of work around home (landscaping my backyard), and also I'll be trying to get to some training sessions at WL. We will probably do some overnighters here and there also.

I've got nothing major planned - which is good for a change....just looking forward to going with the flow.....

Have a good break MD & if you can (along with macca23) post your thoughts on the training sessions you have a look at.

 

[Mad Dog]

Have a good break MD & if you can (along with macca23) post your thoughts on the training sessions you have a look at.

Roger that

 

[PAfolwr]

...the veiled jibes get people on the defensive though !!
...

No veiled jibes intended MD. Not deliberately anyway.

 

[Mitch Power]

With respect to the thread question - If everything went our way, particularly keeping our core players on the park, we could make the top-4. .

Kane, one too many pale ales for you at lunch mate...or were they crownies?

Surely you jest about making the top 4! As we discussed at the pub...I mean at the office...you have a good midfield and a sound defence but that's where it ends. Your rucks are soft and your key forwards are weak, they just can't seem to stand on the own two feet - they're all shook up uh uh

Seriously Kane, Perrie would not get a game at CHF at just about any other team, Stevens is injured and certainly nowhere near the same player he was and ******** pot Welsh is just too short for a key offensive position.

2005 position between 10 and 12

see you at 3.00

 

[Mitch Power]

I think our best chance of success this year comes with our defence, they will really need to stand up especially with the potential forward line issues and a newer midfield, if we can be like geelong and really restrict opposition teams (while still attempting to entertain the crowds) we will be in with a much better chance of moving into the top 8, I dont think open attacking football with help us this year unless the likes un Kruger, Watts and co become over night superstars

I totally agree with you Capitalist. The Crows have a fine defence (without too much depth) and pretty good midfield. The question is how long can the sound defence hold out against a wave of attacks from opposition sides because I don't think you have the key forward personnel to hold the ball.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

People please dont forget Scott Thompson - this boy looks a fairly good replacement for Kane Johnson and IMHO is probably a starting midfielder - ahead of Reilly/Gooey/Stiffy

I reckon he will be in the top 7 come B&F - assuming a good injury run

We haven't mate. He should definately go straight into the Midfield rotation. He has the Stenglein toughness with a little mongrel. Stiffy, Reilly and Bode must also be included in our midfield rotations in 2005.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Kane, one too many pale ales for you at lunch mate...or were they crownies?

Surely you jest about making the top 4! As we discussed at the pub...I mean at the office...you have a good midfield and a sound defence but that's where it ends. Your rucks are soft and your key forwards are weak, they just can't seem to stand on the own two feet - they're all shook up uh uh

Seriously Kane, Perrie would not get a game at CHF at just about any other team, Stevens is injured and certainly nowhere near the same player he was and ******** pot Welsh is just too short for a key offensive position.

2005 position between 10 and 12

see you at 3.00

Mitch, you buggar - you selectively quoted me. I said that IF EVERYTHING went our way we could make the top-4 - but this is DAMN UNLIKELY & we will probably finish between 6th & 12th.

If we have a fit M Stevens, Welsh & Hentschel, we will kick enough winning scores to make the finals.

PS Crownies are over-rated!

 

[Mitch Power]

PS Crownies are over-rated!

Yeah, I really enjoy West End - a good South Aussie beer