I'm gonna do it....

[catempire]

I think it is incorrect to state that Varcoe has better decision making skills, because he simply doesn't get the ball enough in tight encounters or within our set plays to test him out.

Even if that's the case, you can say:

Byrnes: woeful decision making skills in tight and woeful when in the clear
Varcoe: good decision skills when in the clear and unknown when under pressure.

That's still better.

If people are ever expecting Varcoe to win a stack of clearances and hard ball, they are going to be left disappointed. He is an outside player and always will be. If he gets enough outside ball, he will be worth his selection in the team because he has the pace and skills to hurt the opposition.

Agree he has better skills, but it doesn't help much if he can't get his hands on the leather though, and going on the three NAB Cup games so far Byrnes is clearly ahead of him form wise IMO.

Perhaps there's your problem. "Going on the three NAB Cup games so far"...

In 2008, Byrnes averaged just 4 possessions a game more than Varcoe. Given Byrnes' general standard of ball use, that's not a difference that is going to be enough to suggest he is "considerably" better than Varcoe.

And bear in mind, until recently, Byrnes has been playing further up the ground and Varcoe deep in the forward line. In the Prelim final, Varcoe played more on the wing and had the best game of his career collecting 18 possessions. But what made it good wasn't the number of possessions, it was what he did with them. Eighteen possessions from Varcoe are worth so much more than 18 from Byrnes.

You do realise I was comparing him on his early 07 form and his form subsequently, and going on that criteria I stand by what I said.

In that period [ 07 ] his defensive efforts were excellent, he led the competition for tackles inside fifty, often causing a turnover that resulted in a shot on goal, he was personally averaging one goal a match, plus he had a number of assists as well.

At that stage he looked like he could develop into something special, but his form tapered off [ not unusual for a young player ] to the point where he was dropped, and since that time, except on a few very rare occasions he's never come close to replicating the form, or consistency, he displayed then; in other words, instead of showing gradual improvement from the time he first burst on the scene he's done precisely the opposite, and that's the point I was making with the statement about him going backwards.

Christ Cattery!

In early 07 Varcoe was coming on the ground for 5 minute spells playing as a crumbing forward. He would lay a tackle or two and maybe kick a goal. In 18 games, he got over 10 possessions only four times! And bear in mind, you and others are complaining that now he isn't getting enough of it and that he has gone backwards at a rate of knots! He'd have to be sitting in the grandstand coaching the other team for that to be the case!

Since early 07 he has grown in confidence, got more of the ball, and he's STILL doing the good things you point out that he did in early 07, only he's doing MORE of them.

I'm still baffled that you could possibly think he has gone backwards, let alone "at a rate of knots".

 

[Cattery]

Perhaps there's your problem. "Going on the three NAB Cup games so far"...

Errrrrr well isn't that what we're talking about, which one of them, if either, most deserves to play in round one, in which case I would have thought current form was a better guide then what they did last year or at some time in the dim past, so "going on the three NAB Cup games so far" would be the way to determine that I would have thought.

Christ Cattery!

In early 07 Varcoe was coming on the ground for 5 minute spells playing as a crumbing forward. He would lay a tackle or two and maybe kick a goal. In 18 games, he got over 10 possessions only four times! And bear in mind, you and others are complaining that now he isn't getting enough of it and that he has gone backwards at a rate of knots! He'd have to be sitting in the grandstand coaching the other team for that to be the case!

Seem to recall just about everybody was raving about him at the start of 07, yet the way you sum it up it sounds like he was hardly worth a game.

Since early 07 he has grown in confidence, got more of the ball, and he's STILL doing the good things you point out that he did in early 07, only he's doing MORE of them.

He's "grown in confidence" ... not even sure how you measure that .... "get's more of the ball" ... you get more ground time and spend more time in the midfield I assume you will get more of the pill, still doesn't get anywhere near enough of it though to make that a convincing argument ..... "and he's STILL doing the good things you point out that he did in early 07" .... this is where we really part company I'm afraid, because he isn't.
He's not laying as many tackles, not creating as many goal scoring opportunities for team mates, not putting as much defensive pressure on the opposition players coming out of defence, and not kicking as many goals himself as he did in the period under discussion.

Despite your somewhat dismissive comments about his contributions at that time he was far more value to the team then he has been since IMO, whether he was on the ground for five minute spells or whatever is irrelevant.

I'm still baffled that you could possibly think he has gone backwards, let alone "at a rate of knots".

I'm fairly baffled myself that you think he's shown improvement since early 07 when he was earning his place in the team, since then, except for the rare occasion he's really done nothing to warrant his selection.

Can't sum it up any more succinctly then Tay29 in Post#30 ..................

"I have been bewildered by the Varcoe supporters for some time. He's shown he's got flashy skills but he hasn't translated that into consistent and meaningful contributions. He's pretty much a passenger most weeks bobbing up here and there." ...........................

I'm willing to admit he has time on his side and "may" develop into a very good player, but until he shows a heck of a lot more then he is at present I'll be skeptical, and certainly wouldn't consider playing him ahead of Byrnes ................ not that I'd have Shannon in my side either.

 

[catempire]

Errrrrr well isn't that what we're talking about, which one of them, if either, most deserves to play in round one, in which case I would have thought current form was a better guide then what they did last year or at some time in the dim past, so "going on the three NAB Cup games so far" would be the way to determine that I would have thought.

You select players primarily based on who you think is most likely to perform in the upcoming game. The games immediately prior have the most significance, but you also take into account history. You also take into account the future and you plan ahead for what is going to be best for the future of the club. We’re going around in circles here, but when faced with a choice between two players with similar contributions, you go with the one with more upside in future.

Seem to recall just about everybody was raving about him at the start of 07, yet the way you sum it up it sounds like he was hardly worth a game.

Go back and look at the threads if you like. Any raving was short lived and by the end of the year, people were complaining that “all he could do” was chase down blokes from behind. He was “a one trick pony”. His goals came from handballs over the top, apparently.

It’s not that he was hardly worth a game, but on any measure, he wasn’t contributing as much then as he is now.

He's "grown in confidence" ... not even sure how you measure that .... "get's more of the ball" ... you get more ground time and spend more time in the midfield I assume you will get more of the pill, still doesn't get anywhere near enough of it though to make that a convincing argument ..... "and he's STILL doing the good things you point out that he did in early 07" .... this is where we really part company I'm afraid, because he isn't.
He's not laying as many tackles, not creating as many goal scoring opportunities for team mates, not putting as much defensive pressure on the opposition players coming out of defence, and not kicking as many goals himself as he did in the period under discussion.

This is just incorrect. He IS laying as many tackles.

He laid more tackles per game in 2008 than he did in 2007.

In the Port game two weeks ago, he laid 5!

Against Adelaide he laid 4.

What are you basing this on? One NAB cup game when he had just about a career low 1 tackle?

He IS creating more opportunities for teammates. That’s what happens when you get more of the ball which he clearly is doing.

And of course he’s not kicking as many goals. He is being pushed into the midfield to do a different job. We don’t want or need him in a forward line that has small forwards like Stokes, Chapman and Gamble. He’s better off up the field feeding these guys and Mooney and Hawkins the ball.

Despite your somewhat dismissive comments about his contributions at that time he was far more value to the team then he has been since IMO, whether he was on the ground for five minute spells or whatever is irrelevant.

There is no evidence of this.

The stats beg to differ.

The GFC coaching staff would tell you otherwise too if you were able to ask them.

Your case that he hasn't improved is weak. Your case that he has "gone backwards at a rate of knots" is non-existent!

 

[someday-somehow]

FWIW I agree with Cattery re Varcoe.

I went to the game Saturday night and his performance was sub-standard to say the least. His enthusiasm and even interest was reminiscent of James Kelly circa 2006.

I will cut him a bit of slack and hope he is going through some intensive training at the moment which may explain that performance (and his others to date). I know the aboriginal boys can take a lot longer to develop - I was a huge critic of Leon Davis for years and he has finally turned that around but I hope we don't have to wait 8 years for Varcoe to do the same.

I really hope he can turn this around because when I first saw him play in the nab cup against Brisbane 2 years ago I was very impressed by his skills - I would love to see him fulfill his potential but at this stage Byrnes is ahead of him because he looks like he actually wants to win.

 

[catempire]

FWIW I agree with Cattery re Varcoe

Would you say he has "gone backwards at a rate of knots" since 2007?

 

[Cattery]

You select players primarily based on who you think is most likely to perform in the upcoming game. The games immediately prior have the most significance, but you also take into account history. You also take into account the future and you plan ahead for what is going to be best for the future of the club. We’re going around in circles here, but when faced with a choice between two players with similar contributions, you go with the one with more upside in future.

Getting a bit confused now, before you were saying you don't pick a bloke on potential, now you seem to be saying the opposite.
The "best for the future of the club" is winning this years flag, which means putting our best team on the park, and judging by his output so far this year combined with that from midway through 07 that doesn't include Travis.

Go back and look at the threads if you like. Any raving was short lived and by the end of the year, people were complaining that “all he could do” was chase down blokes from behind. He was “a one trick pony”. His goals came from handballs over the top, apparently.

Sheesh mate, thought I'd made it clear that "early 07" was the period under discussion, even said that as the year progressed his form dropped off to the point where he was dropped, and in that period he was contributing more to the team then he has since.

It’s not that he was hardly worth a game, but on any measure, he wasn’t contributing as much then as he is now.

I beg to differ.

This is just incorrect. He IS laying as many tackles.

He laid more tackles per game in 2008 than he did in 2007.

In the Port game two weeks ago, he laid 5!

Against Adelaide he laid 4.

What are you basing this on? One NAB cup game when he had just about a career low 1 tackle?

He IS creating more opportunities for teammates. That’s what happens when you get more of the ball which he clearly is doing.

And of course he’s not kicking as many goals. He is being pushed into the midfield to do a different job. We don’t want or need him in a forward line that has small forwards like Stokes, Chapman and Gamble. He’s better off up the field feeding these guys and Mooney and Hawkins the ball.

How much more game time is he getting to lay those tackles? how effective are they? We can bang on about stats until we're blue in the face but they're only a "very" rough guide to a players overall effectiveness.

There is no evidence of this.

The stats beg to differ.

The GFC coaching staff would tell you otherwise too if you were able to ask them.

Your case that he hasn't improved is weak. Your case that he has "gone backwards at a rate of knots" is non-existent!

As I said, I think you place way to much reliance on stats, and continually bringing up the coaching staff to support your argument is not that valid either, I'm sure if I had the chance to ask them they'd say every player on the list is coming along nicely.

If we're to believe media reports coming out of the cattery there's a role this year for Tenace, and McKenna is a chance to play round one, personally I take anything I hear from Bomber or the other coaches with a large dose of salts.

Plus is this the same coaching staff that picked Varcoe and an unfit Stokes for last years Grand Final ahead on the likes of Wojcinski and Gamble, or going back a few years kept preserving with McCarthy despite the fact blind freddy could see the kid wasn't up to AFL standard.

Tell you what I'll do, I'll withdwaw that "gone backwards at a rate of knots" throwaway remark that you seem to have latched onto and just say that IMO Varcoe isn't as effective now as he was in "early 07" doesn't deserve a game ahead of Byrnes on current form, current being the NAB Cup matches, and would probably be somewhere around 25th cab off the rank if picking the Geelong side.

 

[darren forssman]

If people are ever expecting Varcoe to win a stack of clearances and hard ball, they are going to be left disappointed. He is an outside player and always will be. If he gets enough outside ball, he will be worth his selection in the team because he has the pace and skills to hurt the opposition.

this is the crux of any argument for/against varcoe and the reason for his "disinterest". he is an outside player and will always be.

 

[catempire]

Tell you what I'll do, I'll withdwaw that "gone backwards at a rate of knots" throwaway remark that you seem to have latched onto and just say that IMO Varcoe isn't as effective now as he was in "early 07" doesn't deserve a game ahead of Byrnes on current form, current being the NAB Cup matches, and would probably be somewhere around 25th cab off the rank if picking the Geelong side.

Could have saved me a lot of time!

I reckon if you were picking a GF side (not a NAB Cup GF side) tomorrow, you'd go with Byrnes.

But given that this is the start of the season, given the two players past histories, how many opportunities they have had and how likely each is to be a better player by the end of the season, I think Varcoe is the correct decision.

This is not selecting purely on potential. It is a decision that will lose you very little in the short term (if anything) and potentially gain you a lot in the long term.

 

[Cattery]

Could have saved me a lot of time!

Yeah, gotta be careful about my choice of words.

I reckon if you were picking a GF side (not a NAB Cup GF side) tomorrow, you'd go with Byrnes.

But given that this is the start of the season, given the two players past histories, how many opportunities they have had and how likely each is to be a better player by the end of the season, I think Varcoe is the correct decision.

This is not selecting purely on potential. It is a decision that will lose you very little in the short term (if anything) and potentially gain you a lot in the long term.

Can't argue with what you say there, Varcoe certainly has more upside, but until some of that "potential" translates into real results I'd be looking elsewhere, not necessarily at Byrnes who as I've said wouldn't be in my best 22 either.

Hope I'm proven wrong by the end of the year regarding Travis.

 

[someday-somehow]

Would you say he has "gone backwards at a rate of knots" since 2007?

Well I wouldn't say "at a rate of knots" but I would say I'm closer to agree with cattery than your good self....no offence

 

[someday-somehow]

this is the crux of any argument for/against varcoe and the reason for his "disinterest". he is an outside player and will always be.

Of course he's an outside player....no argument here, the disinterest I was referring to was to apply a tackle and to chase down. I haven't seen it.

If Travs job is to run the lines and collect and deliver then he should play a midfield role, if his job is to man the forward line then he must play defensive as a forward and at the moment he's not doing that.

It could be that the forward line isn't for him, if so he should be used in the wings during the nab cup. Who knows maybe the coaching staff are experimenting with him ATM.

 

[CF]

If only we could combine Shannon's effort and ball finding ability and Varcoe's silky skills into one player.

I think we already have one of those...name is Gary

 

[catempire]

Well I wouldn't say "at a rate of knots" but I would say I'm closer to agree with cattery than your good self....no offence

None taken. You'll have to do better than that!

Of course he's an outside player....no argument here, the disinterest I was referring to was to apply a tackle and to chase down. I haven't seen it.

If Travs job is to run the lines and collect and deliver then he should play a midfield role, if his job is to man the forward line then he must play defensive as a forward and at the moment he's not doing that.

It could be that the forward line isn't for him, if so he should be used in the wings during the nab cup. Who knows maybe the coaching staff are experimenting with him ATM.

I think we are seeing a progression from him being somewhat forced into playing as a crumbing forward in his early career to now being tried in his more natural environment. As a junior, he was a midfielder, not a crumbing forward.

I can see why people are concerned about Varcoe's progress. What perplexed me in this thread was a suggestion that he had regressed in his development in a big way. I don't see the evidence of this and I actually see the contrary.

But I see two issues (for want of a better word) in the analysis of Varcoe as a player generally.

The first, as I've already mentioned, is the expectation that he must win more hard ball (not necessarily by you someday-somehow, but certainly by others). This is coupled with the bizarre football discussion board belief that having outside players in your team is somehow an unacceptable situation and that all players must fling themselves fearlessly into each and every pack to attempt to extract the clearance. This is fallacy. It is not the way the real football world works and the way coaches look at the game. Geelong has plenty of extractors and tough nuts as it is and there is no need to bring another one of those to the table or to force players like Varcoe into that mould. Especially with the way the game is going at the moment, having players with clean skills and pace (notwithstanding that they must be willing to use that pace) are vital. This is why Geelong persists with player like Varcoe.

Secondly, Varcoe is still young and he produces inconsistent performances. One of the aspects of developing as a player is becoming more consistent and I think we need to recognise this and accept that it is something that will only come with experience.

 

[catswhiskers]

I think we are seeing a progression from him being somewhat forced into playing as a crumbing forward in his early career to now being tried in his more natural environment. As a junior, he was a midfielder, not a crumbing forward.

This is insightful. I think you are correct catempire. The coaching staff want Varcoe to play outside midfield. There lies his upside and I see him being very good at this in the not too distant future.

This then leaves the question as to who plays as the small linking forward who works hard up the field to chase/tackle and set up. ATM it is Byrnes who is in front. His form in the NAB practice matches was good. I don't read game stats much but I stumbled across some today. Byrnes in the game v Carlton had more possessions than all bar 2 carlton players (Grigg and Hadley). Shannon had a higher efficiency than both those. Byrnes couldn't have put his hand up much higher- (although kicking the goal on the run would have been sweet.)

Varcoe is the next cab for a midfield spot unless Laidler or someone else who is eligible has a few stellar weeks in the magoos

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

This is insightful. I think you are correct catempire. The coaching staff want Varcoe to play outside midfield. There lies his upside and I see him being very good at this in the not too distant future.

This then leaves the question as to who plays as the small linking forward who works hard up the field to chase/tackle and set up. ATM it is Byrnes who is in front. His form in the NAB practice matches was good. I don't read game stats much but I stumbled across some today. Byrnes in the game v Carlton had more possessions than all bar 2 carlton players (Grigg and Hadley). Shannon had a higher efficiency than both those. Byrnes couldn't have put his hand up much higher- (although kicking the goal on the run would have been sweet.)

Varcoe is the next cab for a midfield spot unless Laidler or someone else who is eligible has a few stellar weeks in the magoos

This was never meant to be a witch hunt on Varcoe! He is a decent player and will come good in time, but at the moment as has been pointed out - he has not stamped his authority on any position within the team. No one is trying to turn Varcoe into a hard at the contest tought nut, we all know this is not his role. However saying this, Varcoe just doesn't seem to read the play well enough to get involved in enough passages to justify his selection. His impact is very minimal, which is concerning and requires that he do a bit more work to involve himself more. Byrnes on the other hand is putting his hand up and really creating something out there - Byrnes is never going to be the awesome small goal sneak; he is more of a link midfielder to the forward line. In short (excuse the pun), Shannon seems to provide more options for us and he is obviously throwing everything he has got at trying to win selection - i say this needs to be rewarded!

 

[TheOutsider]

I am a big fan of Varcoe but on current form I can't so him or Byrnes in the Round 1 side.

I think Varcoe has a big future as an outsider player on a wing He showed against the Dogs in PF what he is capable of. He really needs to improve his consistency and work rate until then I dont think he is in the best 22.

Byrnes on the other hand IMO is a list depth filler nothing else. His work rate is fantastic but his skills and decision making continue to let him down.