Opinion International Geopolitics

[Papa G]

Germany is BIT - Back In Town - when it comes to military power and influence.

Last night - early evening - new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz of socialist democratic party, has decided to "rearm" Germany and has committed to spending 2%+ of GDP on defence every year. This saga has highlighted to Germany that its dependence on Russian gas has left it exposed.

A few weeks ago I thought the world needed Angela Merkel if the sh*t hit the fan over Ukraine. 16 years as chancellor, never defeated at election, leaving office with 70% popularity rating gives her a lot of political capital to negotiate Europe through this crisis.

But Nord Stream 2 has left her decisions on Russia badly exposed. Scholz avoided using the phrase Nord Stream 2 right up to the point where he had to announce it was put on hold.











At the same time as Scholz was talking to the Bundestag, Germans were out in the street of Berlin saying help Ukraine - with weapons if need be. This is all a big shift in German thinking.

They know its time to be less dependent on USA and NATO. Will this spook the rest of the world given German armaments history and use from about 1870 to 1945??





And even though Angela Merkel is off the scene, its another German female politician who is shaping European thinking.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is driving Europe's response that has effectively changed the Commission into a Defence Department overnight, sending weapons to a non member for the first time.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

War is always great for some businesses.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Jane's and a couple of other sites the other day tried to confirm if an Antonov AN225 was destroyed. Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced they did.












Its a big mother.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This has to be taken with a grain of salt but of half true its a significant


Hate to think what the Ukraine military losses are, BUT more importantly what the bloody hell is the Ukrainian civilian death number.

 

[JimmyBC]

I swear I saw a Putin interview once where he corrected an english translator, he must like the pause or refuses to speak the language of his enemies.. I could be quite wrong it's just stuck in my head for some reason.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I swear I saw a Putin interview once where he corrected an english translator, he must like the pause or refuses to speak the language of his enemies.. I could be quite wrong it's just stuck in my head for some reason.

He speaks good english. he spoke English to the world when he made the pitch in 2007 for Sochi to host the 2014 Winter Olympics.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Back on page 158 I linked an article from The Atlantic and said its worth listening to this guy - General David Petraeus' take on Ukraine when things started.

A four-star general, who served in US forces for over 35 years, saw action in Iraq and Afghanistan, was put in charge of the surge in Iraq in 2007, when Bush finally got rid of that idiot Rumsfeld and put Chaney in his box.

Petraeus was/is a counterinsurgency expert, he wrote the US Army's field manual on the subject and that's why he was given the job to head up the surge forces after Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his Jama'at al-Tawhid started filling the power vacuum in late 2004 and then joining up with Al Qaeda ( and eventually led to ISIS) thru to 2006, created so much havoc in Iraq that lead to so many deaths of innocent civilians as well as coalition forces.

After he successfully commanded the surge in Iraq, he then became the Commander of US Central Command which was responsible for both wars US had to battle in, and then commander of the International Security Assistance Force on the ground in Afghanistan. This is the name of the UN approved force to protect and train up Afghan government forces.

In 2011 they appointed him head of CIA and he left that in 2012 because he was caught having an affair with with his biographer and I think she had previously been on his staff when she served in the military. He resigned when the affair became known to his boss, the director of national intelligence. National security implications - potential bribery of the CIA boss.

In other words he knows his warfare shit.

Anyway in that article ot said - In Petraeus’s estimation, however determined Vladimir Putin may be to invade Ukraine, he lacks the troops and the popular support needed to succeed in taking over the country for any significant period of time. In essence, however difficult the Iraq War was for the United States, the Ukraine crisis will be far harder for Russia.

Today in this CNN interview he said the following - ok their might be some USA vs Russia bias but listen to him outline strategy and practical common sense stuff needed to fight and win a war.

Remember Putin is a spy. A ruthless one, surrounded by yes men scared of him, but he never served in the military and on a battlefield.

Petraeus says the following in the Monday morning US time interview in answer to the first question- what is your assessment of the Russian advance? His 3 minute answer;

This is going terribly for Vladimir Putin and his forces. They designed a flawed concept.

They haven't weighted the main effort (to topple government in Kiev and replace it)

They've failed to integrate their air and ground capabilities. They're not achieving the combined arms affect of infantry armour and artillery.

Their logistics is a mess.

And on top of all that, Vladimir Putin's actions have united the, most of the world against him. With countries like Germany taking actions that no one, would have imagined possible just a week ago.

This is (pause) This could actually be worse for Russia than Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union.

If you reflect on that, they left in an orderly fashion, and the regime they put in place stayed in power in Kabul at least another 2 years, until they cut off funding, then the country descended into civil war.

I've invade a country. (how many people can say that?) If you, hell I was a 2 star general and division commander, with 20,000 troops, 101 first airborne division ..... 250 helicopters.

I can't imagine attacking a country in which virtually everyone hates us, as opposed to applauding us. Remember in Iraq they did applaud us, they hated Saddam Hussein and his sons and his henchmen and were glad to see him go. Then things took a different course for a variety of reasons.

But in this case the entire country is united against them.

Many of the adults who are not in the military or in the partisan units, are taking up arms against them.

Nowhere is safe.

You can never really rest, you can't refit, they can't do maintenance on their vehicles without being under threat.

Armed vehicles require a lot of maintenance, a lot of fuel, rearming and all the rest of that.

They may bring in Belarusians, Chechens - who are quiet thuggish into the fight.

There is a lot of combat power. They will get frustrated. THEY WILL DO ENORMOUS DAMAGE TO KVIV.

They will try to turn the lights out, literally, they may even starve the city if they have to, But at the end of the day, they aren't really even getting to the outskirts.

Because their lines of communication behind them aren't secure.

So I would be at a loss how to take on the problem having failed.

The Russians failed at the outset to take advantage of a window of a day or two when there were no real obstacles on the road or so forth because -

President Zelenskyy didn't want to mobilise the country and scare them until he really had to.

So that's the situation here and it is going abysmally for Vladimir Putin and his forces literally at every level. tactical level, individual and as you can see the operational level and certainly at the strategic level.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Petraeus gets asked about Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons. He gives a straight forward answer and then a surposing one. Will type that up later.

 

[Harlott]

I’m not sure how this is going to end well for Putin? Ukraine aren’t having a bar of it and the world is with them. Sounds like there’ll be nothing left to sanction by the end of the week. God knows what kind of pressure cooker that will create in Russia.

 

[Grave Danger]

You'd like to think a popular uprising in Russia deposing Putin would be the ideal outcome, but the population no doubt still remember the chaos and deprivations that ensued after the break up of the USSR and would settle for the devil they know. Also, a timid Western world would probably be too worried about pushing the sanctions so far that Putin does something really stupid/bad.

 

[bomberclifford]

Remember what happened the last time a major European economy tanked because of extreme sanctions?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Petraeus' answer when asked about Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons and if he will use them??

I hope not, but don't ride on hope, ride on reality.

What we need to do is #1 take that seriously and #2 we have to start thinking thru how do we provide Putin an out?

I mean you never want to put a guy who has nuclear weapons truly in a corner that he feels he has nothing left to loose.

So as the weight of the world is coming down on him, on his economy on his financial institutions and his forces in the field.

(#2 surprised me a bit, then I realised its classic Sun Tzu, Chapter VIII the Nine Variables - There are some roads not to follow; some troops not to strike; some cities not to assault and some ground which should not be contested. - an army although it may be attacked, is not to be attacked if it is in desperate circumstances and there is the possibility that the enemy will fight to the death.)

The Ukrainians will is incredible. To see what they are doing. To see their president.

You know he was a comedian who played the president on tv and this is the role of a lifetime. He should get an academy award and every other for what he is doing.

He's a natural!

To see this come together for the Ukrainians who have nowhere near the mass the Russians can bring to bare, but they're defending, defending their homeland and doing it with a home field advantage.

So what we need to do is start thinking about how does Vladimir Putin get out of this? What can we discuss with President Zelenskyy that can be provided in these diplomatic negotiations to provide Putin some way out, but obviously NOT capitulate to his demands he has placed on Ukraine or on NATO or the EU.

Interviewer asks if he worries if Putin is unstable or does he still see him as the calculating Putin??

Its different than that. He is calculating but calculating in a bubble of his own making.

goes on about the scenes of Putin in a huge room with subordinates at a distance and only listening.

calculating but probably on incomplete and on inaccurate information.

Imagine being the one who has to report to him - well Mr President this really is not going well, this really is a terrible idea you had, you ought to go sit under a tree until the thought passess and let us solve this.

Obviously that's not going to be well received. That's the issue you have here. Very difficult for the world when he starts to rattle the nuclear sabre.

Have to be very calm and prepare for that potential eventuality.

They will lash out. Again they do have quantity and mass. We've seen the columns of vehicles lined up. The question is if they get them to the right place given how clogged the roads will be over time with wreckage of destroyed vehicles and so forth, and obstacles the Ukrainian military have been putting in.

I can't overemphasis how difficult a position he and his forces are in and therefore how important it is to try and provide a way out.

But then again keep in mind there is still ENORMOUS DAMAGE THAT RUSSIA CAN DO.

Goes on about the thermobaric missiles Russia has that suck oxygen out of the room and any lungs of people in that space they land.

I fear that in frustration they're going to do a great deal of that.

What has been surprising - again - is the inability to use the tools that we thought they had in overwhelming numbers. Their airforce, their cyber capabilities, really haven't been brought to bare. They haven't completely grounded with the Ukrainian air force, so what they've done is really underwhelming. They're underperforming.

There is the potential they could get their act together, but they are strung out on 7 different axises of advance. They are proceeding in the south and that has to be a worry for the Ukrainians as that could lead to the southern part of Kviv.

But that will take quiet a bit and that unit coming from the south has very exposed lines of communication.

And again I can't imagine invading like this - as I had the privilege as the head of the 101st Airborne division, and you send your 100,005 gallon tankers back, which we literally did and they get interdicted (ie intercepted) and you grind to a halt.

It's hard to argue against much of what Petraeus said, even with any USA v Russia biases. I interpret what he said, is what I have been thinking for a few days that Kviv in particular, but other big cities and towns will end in a street by street battle, the Russians will continue to be ruthless, but the Ukrainians will fight to the death, towns will be destroyed to bits with bombings and bullets smashing them to bits, rubble and shit everywhere, just like you see from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and have started seeing already in Ukraine.

If this goes for a few months or longer, my guess is there will probably be 5 million to 10 million refugees flee Ukraine, 100,000 deaths every month, the total for both sides, and you can probably triple the monthly casualties figures.

It is going to get farken terrible. The best chance is millions protesting in Russia as the sanctions start hurting. The state police wont be able to lock up 10 million people a month and stop so many people working in vital industries.

This page gives you info on the 101st Airborne Division

101st Airborne Division - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And this bit is what they did in 2003 in Iraq under then Major General David Petraeus.

101st Airborne Division - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

When I saw the long clogged queues of 6 lane highway out of Kviv on Friday, or the 80km line of cars trying to get to the Polish border from Lviv, virtually the distance from Lviv CBD to the border, the long line of Russian tanks over the weekend, and even tonight the supposed 60km line of tanks moving to Kviv ( my guess about 3,000 tanks), my first thought was, farken hell, you don't want fighter jets carpet bombing these line ups.

That's what happened at the end of Gulf War I in February 1991, when the yanks just carpet bombed every vehicle on what has become known as they Highway of Death, a 6 lane highway at some stages, on the road leaving Iraq into Kuwait, but the target was Iraqi defence forces escaping Kuwait back to Basra.

No doubt there was a lot of Iraqi defence forces and friends of the regime trying to escape, but there would have been a shit load of innocent people as well.

An official death count has never been done, but estimates are of over 10,000 people.

If you think things are bad at the moment, there would be nothing stopping an enraged Putin or some of his senior military leaders choosing this type of option if things go poorly. I have no idea if the Ukrainians have thought about doing something similar to that line of tanks, or if they have the air strike power left to do it.


If this is what the good guys did - imagine what the bad guys could do.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I watched Zelenskyy's speech to the European Commission. He got a 1 minute standing ovation at the end even though he walked off screen at the end of his speech before they had stopped.

At 1.50 in he says - I don't read off the paper, off the sheet, because the paper phase in the life of my country has ended. Now we are dealing with reality. Real life. Kill people.

He talked about the 2 cruise missiles that have hit border towns. Said 20 university towns along the border. One of them has Freedom Square, the largest square in all of Europe and a cruise missile hit the square and killed dozens of people.

Yesterday 16 children killed and President Putin will say its operational and we are hitting a military structure. Where are our children, what kind of military factories do they work at??

We are fighting also to be equal members of Europe. I believe that today we are showing everybody that's exactly what we are.


From Sky News UK. The translator at one point almost loses it.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Watching European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen's speech. I didn't realize that the EC has banned all transactions by/with the Russian Central Bank. They initially took banned a whole lot of commercial banks from SWIFT, but removing the Central Bank is a huge move. Wonder if Oz and our RBA has done the same thing.

 

[Grave Danger]

Watching European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen's speech. I didn't realize that the EC has banned all transactions by/with the Russian Central Bank. They initially took banned a whole lot of commercial banks from SWIFT, but removing the Central Bank is a huge move. Wonder if Oz and our RBA has done the same thing.

Most of the grog shops have agreed to take Russian brands of vodka off the shelves.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Watched Stephen Colbert's show last night/early this morning and I thought he handled the war situation well for such a delicate issue. It was Monday night's show and he talked about weekend events in Ukraine.

Sometimes you gotta have a laugh to counterbalance the misery. The Diggers in WWI trenches were famous for it.

He used some of the viral videos to make jokes around them and praise the Ukrainians. The guy driving up to the tank that had run out of fuel, the guys on Snake Island telling the Russian navy guys to go **** yourself.

But a couple I hadn't seen. The guy who picked up a land mine and whilst smoking, walks the land mine to the side so the Ukraine tanks and cars don't hit it. At 4.55 they show the Reuters story about Ukrainian road sign company removing road signs to confuse the Russians and posted a photo of the edited road sign had been replaced with phrases that said .... you guessed it. Had video of Zelenskyy winning Dancing with the Stars.





He did a rare 2nd Monologue - about Ukraine and the different sanctions and who was imposing them on Russia.




And Taylor Swift did a song about removing the Russians from SWIFT.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I flicked on the satellite channels at lunchtime and saw what is in the video below on Belarus 24, channel 163, as well as watching a couple of the Russian channels, one had a panel show of talking heads about the war.

It would have been about 3am in Moscow and 2am in Minsk so obvious were replays.

I watched the Lucashenko lecture for about 4 minutes. Didn't understand a word he was saying, but it looked like an invasion plan to me. That's what the news.com.au video below says and that in his arrogance he has leaked the plan.

At about 9 seconds in, you see a military uniformed guy standing up. Probably a general. The camera regularly panned onto his face and he looked really uncomfortable, and was a bit red faced. After 2 or 3 minutes, Lucashenko forced him to sit down and he still looked bloody uncomfortable.


Comment under the video
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko has shown a battle map on live TV, seemingly showing a planned Russian operation which moves beyond Ukraine into another nearby country.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

A mate sent me this. Russians are making comments on things like reviews for Moscow restaurants on Google maps as one way to bypass internet censorship.

 

[OneGreatClub]

A mate sent me this. Russians are making comments on things like reviews for Moscow restaurants on Google maps as one way to bypass internet censorship.

Yes they have been asking non Russians to do so too to get the message out to the Russian people about what is actually happening, not the Kremlin propaganda.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The cold war isn't fully back until I hear some American politician call Putin or his lackies - pinko commie bastards.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Such bravery by the people

 

[edgie]

I don't think I've ever seen an army whose heart is less in it than these Russians.

It's like 99% of the soldiers don't want to be there and then there's 1% or less that are the thugs that unfortunately make up the ranks just wanting to be fighting anywhere.

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