JLT Series Discussion Thread

[nameless]

So I've been compiling a bit of a spreadsheet over the JLT series, I know mid pricers in SC are generally considered very risky, but I just wanted to put some names out there to see how people are feeling about them. Not necessarily picking them myself, but there's a few who have started their 2017 campaigns off in solid form. I'll throw in some rookies worth discussing too. Comment on all, comment on none, comment on one or comment on some, share your thoughts

*all stats and TOG% are averages*

DEFENDERS
Zak Jones - 307k - 114 SC - 84% TOG - Has only played the one game so far, but would anyone consider him if he had a 90+ average from his 3 JLT games?
Zach Tuohy - 443k - 130 SC - 90% TOG - Again, just the one game so far, but can Tuohy become one of many names that we've seen come to a new club and reach a new level?
Christian Salem - 379k - 86 SC - 70.5% TOG - Melbourne on the rise, only played 8 games last year for an average of 69.75, but still yet to really breakout. Could 2017 be the year?
Robert Murphy - 392k - 52 SC - 87% TOG - One game for the Dogs, one game for Bob. Had a 103 average from 3 games before his injury last year. Anyone backing him to get back to premium status?
Michael Hibberd - 402k - 58 SC - 77% TOG - Didn't play JLT 1, a bit quiet in JLT 2. Was a quality player pre-ban, new club now, should be fresh, worth a shot?
Callum Mills - 420k - 111 SC - 80% TOG - Will he go to another level this year after an excellent debut season, or will it be second year blues?

MIDFIELDERS - Looking at some names that aren't Swallow, JOM, Beams or Murphy.
Will Brodie - 175k - 75 SC - 73% TOG - Lock?
Mitch Hibberd - 123k - 51.5 SC - 78.5% TOG - Lock? DPP status.
Clayton Oliver - 382k - 102 SC - 69.5% TOG - Tonned up twice from 2 games. Awkward price though. Anyone?
Dom Sheed - 267k - 91.5 SC - 73% TOG - Interesting one here. Spent 84% of time on the ground in JLT 1, but then Priddis, Shuey and Mitchell came back and he only played 64%. Still scored 92.
Michael Barlow - 533k - 111 SC - 78% TOG - Always been a prolific ball winner, and now he's moved clubs. They need him to fill the void left by JOM and Prestia, so if fit, should play all 22. Anyone?
Jobe Watson - 453k - 93 SC - 65.5% TOG - Lock?

RUCKS - Thoughts on structure? Set and forget 2 premiums? 1 premo 1 mid price? 1 premo 1 rookie?
Braydon Preuss - 123k - 82.5 SC - 75% TOG - Anyone starting with him? Despite the good start, he's still not their number 1.
Toby Nankervis - 366k - 89 SC - 72% TOG - Toby should be number 1. Unless Maric reinvents himself drastically, or Hampson puts serious pressure on, Nankervis should be number 1 all year.
Daniel Currie - 338k - 94 SC - 66.5% TOG - Played JLT 1 with Witts, JLT 2 with Brooskby. Scored 90's in both. Not sure who the number1 is at GC, with Nicholls also another contesting for a spot.

FORWARDS
Isaac Heeney - 433k - 100 SC - 81% TOG - Ready to reach the next level?
Chad Wingard - 439k - 100 SC - 85% TOG - Been a popular pick, goes big and then has a rough one. Thoughts?
Elliott Yeo - 409k - 91 SC - 76.5% TOG - Never had Yeo in my side. What are others experiences with him?
Christian Petracca - 395k - 111 SC - 70% TOG - A seriously good player, dangerous price though. Anyone risking it?
Nathan Hrovat - 301k - 89 SC - 74.5% TOG - Another player at a new club. Seems refreshed and should be given opportunity. Yes or No?

Just to give you all a glimpse of what I'm looking at, heres a screenshot of the spreadsheet I slaved over lol.

View attachment 340534

I am someone who's had Yeo before, and I can say with 100% certainty he will never be in my side again.

He won't even be thought of, and anyone who mentions his name at my club will be fired.

 

[jjsmitty8]

I am someone who's had Yeo before, and I can say with 100% certainty he will never be in my side again.

He won't even be thought of, and anyone who mentions his name at my club will be fired.

How do you feel about Sheed? I like him, but feel weird picking him ahead of O'Meara.

 

[nameless]

How do you feel about Sheed? I like him, but feel weird picking him ahead of O'Meara.

Sheed is a lock for me.

Our gameplan looks to have evolved, last year we were second last for possessions. This year we have seen evidence of being a far more handball happy team, bodes well for Sheed.

Only concern is sharing points between Mitchell, Priddis, Shuey and Gaff.
So his limit is probably 90-95, which means he's unlikely to be a keeper.

 

[adammania9]

Elliott Yeo - 409k - 91 SC - 76.5% TOG - Never had Yeo in my side. What are others experiences with him?

 

[jjsmitty8]

Sheed is a lock for me.

Our gameplan looks to have evolved, last year we were second last for possessions. This year we have seen evidence of being a far more handball happy team, bodes well for Sheed.

Only concern is sharing points between Mitchell, Priddis, Shuey and Gaff.
So his limit is probably 90-95, which means he's unlikely to be a keeper.

I'm very seriously considering Shuey too. I like Sheed, think he might be able to make 150-200k

 

[nameless]

I'm very seriously considering Shuey too. I like Sheed, think he might be able to make 150-200k

Yes, Shuey a strong choice.

Just so many good players around him.

 

[Kadog]

Yes, Shuey a strong choice.

Just so many good players around him.

Although I'm not running with him in my side I've picked this bloke to be a breakout contender this year (Big Calls thread) No nonsense player who gets it done. Has great support cast to run amok.

 

[00Stinger]

View attachment 340571 View attachment 340572

That score isnt too bad for his time on ground.

Thanks

Sent from my SM-P555 using Tapatalk

 

[Franky_024]

Brilliant spreadsheet, I remember pumping many hours into one last year when I should've been studying only to have one of those facebook sites release a similar yet more user friendly version.

Most of those guys i'm not even contemplating except for the few rookies listed. Last year I was going to start with 1 or 2 mid priced players and after the preseason comp, ended up with about 5. Only 1 of those guys lasted till the end, the other 4 were disasters that had to be traded for no profit. This season I have Roughy and Mills and thats it.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

So I've been compiling a bit of a spreadsheet over the JLT series, I know mid pricers in SC are generally considered very risky, but I just wanted to put some names out there to see how people are feeling about them. Not necessarily picking them myself, but there's a few who have started their 2017 campaigns off in solid form. I'll throw in some rookies worth discussing too. Comment on all, comment on none, comment on one or comment on some, share your thoughts

*all stats and TOG% are averages*

DEFENDERS
Zak Jones - 307k - 114 SC - 84% TOG - Has only played the one game so far, but would anyone consider him if he had a 90+ average from his 3 JLT games?
Zach Tuohy - 443k - 130 SC - 90% TOG - Again, just the one game so far, but can Tuohy become one of many names that we've seen come to a new club and reach a new level?
Christian Salem - 379k - 86 SC - 70.5% TOG - Melbourne on the rise, only played 8 games last year for an average of 69.75, but still yet to really breakout. Could 2017 be the year?
Robert Murphy - 392k - 52 SC - 87% TOG - One game for the Dogs, one game for Bob. Had a 103 average from 3 games before his injury last year. Anyone backing him to get back to premium status?
Michael Hibberd - 402k - 58 SC - 77% TOG - Didn't play JLT 1, a bit quiet in JLT 2. Was a quality player pre-ban, new club now, should be fresh, worth a shot?
Callum Mills - 420k - 111 SC - 80% TOG - Will he go to another level this year after an excellent debut season, or will it be second year blues?

MIDFIELDERS - Looking at some names that aren't Swallow, JOM, Beams or Murphy.
Will Brodie - 175k - 75 SC - 73% TOG - Lock?
Mitch Hibberd - 123k - 51.5 SC - 78.5% TOG - Lock? DPP status.
Clayton Oliver - 382k - 102 SC - 69.5% TOG - Tonned up twice from 2 games. Awkward price though. Anyone?
Dom Sheed - 267k - 91.5 SC - 73% TOG - Interesting one here. Spent 84% of time on the ground in JLT 1, but then Priddis, Shuey and Mitchell came back and he only played 64%. Still scored 92.
Michael Barlow - 533k - 111 SC - 78% TOG - Always been a prolific ball winner, and now he's moved clubs. They need him to fill the void left by JOM and Prestia, so if fit, should play all 22. Anyone?
Jobe Watson - 453k - 93 SC - 65.5% TOG - Lock?

RUCKS - Thoughts on structure? Set and forget 2 premiums? 1 premo 1 mid price? 1 premo 1 rookie?
Braydon Preuss - 123k - 82.5 SC - 75% TOG - Anyone starting with him? Despite the good start, he's still not their number 1.
Toby Nankervis - 366k - 89 SC - 72% TOG - Toby should be number 1. Unless Maric reinvents himself drastically, or Hampson puts serious pressure on, Nankervis should be number 1 all year.
Daniel Currie - 338k - 94 SC - 66.5% TOG - Played JLT 1 with Witts, JLT 2 with Brooskby. Scored 90's in both. Not sure who the number1 is at GC, with Nicholls also another contesting for a spot.

FORWARDS
Isaac Heeney - 433k - 100 SC - 81% TOG - Ready to reach the next level?
Chad Wingard - 439k - 100 SC - 85% TOG - Been a popular pick, goes big and then has a rough one. Thoughts?
Elliott Yeo - 409k - 91 SC - 76.5% TOG - Never had Yeo in my side. What are others experiences with him?
Christian Petracca - 395k - 111 SC - 70% TOG - A seriously good player, dangerous price though. Anyone risking it?
Nathan Hrovat - 301k - 89 SC - 74.5% TOG - Another player at a new club. Seems refreshed and should be given opportunity. Yes or No?

Just to give you all a glimpse of what I'm looking at, heres a screenshot of the spreadsheet I slaved over lol.

View attachment 340534

Of the defensive midpricers there's a few interesting ones but none scream out as a must have. Not with so many rookie choices and a few good premo options.
Tuohy looked good in game 1 but it's a big call at his age to break out and end up a keeper.
Murphy old and not a history of going massive. Lots of risk for potentially modest gain.
Hartlett looked putrid and the R9 bye a turn off. Has he really got a spot in the Port leadership group? History says yes, everything else no.
Jones interesting and will improve but not enough to be a keeper.
Hibberd might be a slow starter in new colours, never really considered him but in theory could be ok. Hard to see him average close to 100 though which you may want with so many juicy defensive premos this year.
Mills won't score enough - not many 2nd year defenders become keepers (do any?)
Vastuin - was interested (useful bye) before I saw him play. Quickly decided not worth the risk.

Mids
I would only look at the obvious names - O'Meara, Swallow, Beams, Watson, Murphy is my order of preference and I'll probably stack at least 3 into my team. The only other possibility I'm considering is Selwood (if he plays both the last 2 preseason games). Proven elite scoring history when he's healthy.

Ruck
Sandi and Witts all the way with Ryder to cover. Round 9 is a huge issue but I'm going to upgrade my ruck line as early as possible. Trying to go set and forget (even with Gawn) is a crapshoot. I would rather see who looks good when the season starts. That said the injury risk is huge and if they struggle through the rest of the preseason my plans will change.

Forward
Will only touch fallen premos (eg Roughy, Wingard) staying well clear of breakout candidates. Especially Yeo who did a preseason tease this weekend for the suckers.
Roughy is locked for me - partly sentimental but he's got the history and looked great in the Hawks 2 games.
Not really a midpricer but keen on Caddy as a player who could go to the next level (and has the R12 bye)

 

[Double the Fist]

Of the defensive midpricers there's a few interesting ones but none scream out as a must have. Not with so many rookie choices and a few good premo options.
Tuohy looked good in game 1 but it's a big call at his age to break out and end up a keeper.
Murphy old and not a history of going massive. Lots of risk for potentially modest gain.
Hartlett looked putrid and the R9 bye a turn off. Has he really got a spot in the Port leadership group? History says yes, everything else no.
Jones interesting and will improve but not enough to be a keeper.
Hibberd might be a slow starter in new colours, never really considered him but in theory could be ok. Hard to see him average close to 100 though which you may want with so many juicy defensive premos this year.
Mills won't score enough - not many 2nd year defenders become keepers (do any?)
Vastuin - was interested (useful bye) before I saw him play. Quickly decided not worth the risk.

Mids
I would only look at the obvious names - O'Meara, Swallow, Beams, Watson, Murphy is my order of preference and I'll probably stack at least 3 into my team. The only other possibility I'm considering is Selwood (if he plays both the last 2 preseason games). Proven elite scoring history when he's healthy.

Ruck
Sandi and Witts all the way with Ryder to cover. Round 9 is a huge issue but I'm going to upgrade my ruck line as early as possible. Trying to go set and forget (even with Gawn) is a crapshoot. I would rather see who looks good when the season starts. That said the injury risk is huge and if they struggle through the rest of the preseason my plans will change.

Forward
Will only touch fallen premos (eg Roughy, Wingard) staying well clear of breakout candidates. Especially Yeo who did a preseason tease this weekend for the suckers.
Roughy is locked for me - partly sentimental but he's got the history and looked great in the Hawks 2 games.
Not really a midpricer but keen on Caddy as a player who could go to the next level (and has the R12 bye)

Good calls, steering clear of Wingard but really tempted by Watson, but not quite enough yet.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Good calls, steering clear of Wingard but really tempted by Watson, but not quite enough yet.

I was tempted by the dear leader especially after hearing about his 2016 average of 27 goals per game playing out of the back pocket. However the recent doping scandal made me reconsider.

 

[Double the Fist]

I was tempted by the dear leader especially after hearing about his 2016 average of 27 goals per game playing out of the back pocket. However the recent doping scandal made me reconsider.

If you don't pick him, don't go to Malaysia for holidays....

 

[nameless]

Although I'm not running with him in my side I've picked this bloke to be a breakout contender this year (Big Calls thread) No nonsense player who gets it done. Has great support cast to run amok.

He will benefit as a player from the inclusion of Mitchell and Sheed.

But this could mean he plays more outside role and less contested possessions - but can't be sure exactly how it'll all play out.

As mentioned above, we should be a higher possession team, so I think a few West Coast mids could see some upside.

 

[jjsmitty8]

Of the defensive midpricers there's a few interesting ones but none scream out as a must have. Not with so many rookie choices and a few good premo options.
Tuohy looked good in game 1 but it's a big call at his age to break out and end up a keeper.
Murphy old and not a history of going massive. Lots of risk for potentially modest gain.
Hartlett looked putrid and the R9 bye a turn off. Has he really got a spot in the Port leadership group? History says yes, everything else no.
Jones interesting and will improve but not enough to be a keeper.
Hibberd might be a slow starter in new colours, never really considered him but in theory could be ok. Hard to see him average close to 100 though which you may want with so many juicy defensive premos this year.
Mills won't score enough - not many 2nd year defenders become keepers (do any?)
Vastuin - was interested (useful bye) before I saw him play. Quickly decided not worth the risk.

Mids
I would only look at the obvious names - O'Meara, Swallow, Beams, Watson, Murphy is my order of preference and I'll probably stack at least 3 into my team. The only other possibility I'm considering is Selwood (if he plays both the last 2 preseason games). Proven elite scoring history when he's healthy.

Ruck
Sandi and Witts all the way with Ryder to cover. Round 9 is a huge issue but I'm going to upgrade my ruck line as early as possible. Trying to go set and forget (even with Gawn) is a crapshoot. I would rather see who looks good when the season starts. That said the injury risk is huge and if they struggle through the rest of the preseason my plans will change.

Forward
Will only touch fallen premos (eg Roughy, Wingard) staying well clear of breakout candidates. Especially Yeo who did a preseason tease this weekend for the suckers.
Roughy is locked for me - partly sentimental but he's got the history and looked great in the Hawks 2 games.
Not really a midpricer but keen on Caddy as a player who could go to the next level (and has the R12 bye)

Appreciate the feedback mate, always nice to see what other people think.

 

[Migzeh]

He will benefit as a player from the inclusion of Mitchell and Sheed.

But this could mean he plays more outside role and less contested possessions - but can't be sure exactly how it'll all play out.

As mentioned above, we should be a higher possession team, so I think a few West Coast mids could see some upside.

I had shuey as my first pick (complete team bias). Buuttt i honestly think this will be his year. while mitchell might be stealing some of his inside work i feel like his Inside 50 kicking will be one of the teams greatest assets. If he cracks 75% kicking (which i think is easy for him considering his new freedom) he will rack up the points. Plus the fact he isn't scared at all to actually go in for the hard ball AND can break a tackle unlike marsden. So his points will come from breaking lines with long inside kicks to JKKs chest. Plus he loves a sneaky goal. He even had a crack at a super goal with his left boot on the weekend.

 

[Double the Fist]

I had shuey as my first pick (complete team bias). Buuttt i honestly think this will be his year. while mitchell might be stealing some of his inside work i feel like his Inside 50 kicking will be one of the teams greatest assets. If he cracks 75% kicking (which i think is easy for him considering his new freedom) he will rack up the points. Plus the fact he isn't scared at all to actually go in for the hard ball AND can break a tackle unlike marsden. So his points will come from breaking lines with long inside kicks to JKKs chest. Plus he loves a sneaky goal. He even had a crack at a super goal with his left boot on the weekend.

Will Marsden be able to increase his average footballing to slightly better than average footballing?
PM me please, I don't want everyone jumping on him as my POD! *wink

 

[nameless]

Will Marsden be able to increase his average footballing to slightly better than average footballing?
PM me please, I don't want everyone jumping on him as my POD! *wink

Do they do Supercoach scores in the WAFL?

 

[Migzeh]

Do they do Supercoach scores in the WAFL?

They do actually because i applied for a job with champion data last year and had an interview and got rejected. Felt worse than when i was at the year 7 disco and got laughed at by kate.

**** YOU KATE

 

[JuddgementDay]

So I've been compiling a bit of a spreadsheet over the JLT series, I know mid pricers in SC are generally considered very risky, but I just wanted to put some names out there to see how people are feeling about them. Not necessarily picking them myself, but there's a few who have started their 2017 campaigns off in solid form. I'll throw in some rookies worth discussing too. Comment on all, comment on none, comment on one or comment on some, share your thoughts

*all stats and TOG% are averages*

DEFENDERS
Zak Jones - 307k - 114 SC - 84% TOG - Has only played the one game so far, but would anyone consider him if he had a 90+ average from his 3 JLT games?
Zach Tuohy - 443k - 130 SC - 90% TOG - Again, just the one game so far, but can Tuohy become one of many names that we've seen come to a new club and reach a new level?
Christian Salem - 379k - 86 SC - 70.5% TOG - Melbourne on the rise, only played 8 games last year for an average of 69.75, but still yet to really breakout. Could 2017 be the year?
Robert Murphy - 392k - 52 SC - 87% TOG - One game for the Dogs, one game for Bob. Had a 103 average from 3 games before his injury last year. Anyone backing him to get back to premium status?
Michael Hibberd - 402k - 58 SC - 77% TOG - Didn't play JLT 1, a bit quiet in JLT 2. Was a quality player pre-ban, new club now, should be fresh, worth a shot?
Callum Mills - 420k - 111 SC - 80% TOG - Will he go to another level this year after an excellent debut season, or will it be second year blues?

MIDFIELDERS - Looking at some names that aren't Swallow, JOM, Beams or Murphy.
Will Brodie - 175k - 75 SC - 73% TOG - Lock?
Mitch Hibberd - 123k - 51.5 SC - 78.5% TOG - Lock? DPP status.
Clayton Oliver - 382k - 102 SC - 69.5% TOG - Tonned up twice from 2 games. Awkward price though. Anyone?
Dom Sheed - 267k - 91.5 SC - 73% TOG - Interesting one here. Spent 84% of time on the ground in JLT 1, but then Priddis, Shuey and Mitchell came back and he only played 64%. Still scored 92.
Michael Barlow - 533k - 111 SC - 78% TOG - Always been a prolific ball winner, and now he's moved clubs. They need him to fill the void left by JOM and Prestia, so if fit, should play all 22. Anyone?
Jobe Watson - 453k - 93 SC - 65.5% TOG - Lock?

RUCKS - Thoughts on structure? Set and forget 2 premiums? 1 premo 1 mid price? 1 premo 1 rookie?
Braydon Preuss - 123k - 82.5 SC - 75% TOG - Anyone starting with him? Despite the good start, he's still not their number 1.
Toby Nankervis - 366k - 89 SC - 72% TOG - Toby should be number 1. Unless Maric reinvents himself drastically, or Hampson puts serious pressure on, Nankervis should be number 1 all year.
Daniel Currie - 338k - 94 SC - 66.5% TOG - Played JLT 1 with Witts, JLT 2 with Brooskby. Scored 90's in both. Not sure who the number1 is at GC, with Nicholls also another contesting for a spot.

FORWARDS
Isaac Heeney - 433k - 100 SC - 81% TOG - Ready to reach the next level?
Chad Wingard - 439k - 100 SC - 85% TOG - Been a popular pick, goes big and then has a rough one. Thoughts?
Elliott Yeo - 409k - 91 SC - 76.5% TOG - Never had Yeo in my side. What are others experiences with him?
Christian Petracca - 395k - 111 SC - 70% TOG - A seriously good player, dangerous price though. Anyone risking it?
Nathan Hrovat - 301k - 89 SC - 74.5% TOG - Another player at a new club. Seems refreshed and should be given opportunity. Yes or No?

Just to give you all a glimpse of what I'm looking at, heres a screenshot of the spreadsheet I slaved over lol.

View attachment 340534

Great work - thanks for sharing
If there is a season to go mid-pricers this has to be one of those years...
Without stretching most could have 3+ from the following JOM swallow MM roughy ryder wingard heeney and to a lesser extend sandi tuohy mills beams
Personally, I've got burnt badly last year by starting with too many mid-pricers, but what the heck - double or nothing!

 

[big bootaaaaah]

I had shuey as my first pick (complete team bias). Buuttt i honestly think this will be his year. while mitchell might be stealing some of his inside work i feel like his Inside 50 kicking will be one of the teams greatest assets. If he cracks 75% kicking (which i think is easy for him considering his new freedom) he will rack up the points. Plus the fact he isn't scared at all to actually go in for the hard ball AND can break a tackle unlike marsden. So his points will come from breaking lines with long inside kicks to JKKs chest. Plus he loves a sneaky goal. He even had a crack at a super goal with his left boot on the weekend.

Yes Shuey is getting better and better and in his prime but If I was another teams coach with priddis and Mitchell in and under I'd be double tagging Shuey.... just saying.

 

[stevebbb]

Nice jjsmitty8 , thanks for posting

Even though there's a table like this posted at the end of the JLT, I decided to put one together myself for the players I'm tossing up over, might help somebody



I'll post update after the weekend

 

[Falchoon]

Nice jjsmitty8 , thanks for posting

Even though there's a table like this posted at the end of the JLT, I decided to put one together myself for the players I'm tossing up over, might help somebody

View attachment 340782

I'll post update after the weekend

If I may be so bold, 2 suggestions on the above.

1. is to scale the players outputs, e.g. Swallow had 80 points in 53% GT in JLT1. How does that play out to a full game? I'd scale it up to 75% game time with the points per minute at approx 75% of the demonstrated output, giving Swallow a full game equivalent of approximately 105pts. Most of the others bar O'meara should stand.


2. I'd recommend a 5th set of columns, one based on scaling the importance of the games. As a general rule, teams take the 3rd game more seriously than the 2nd, and the 2nd more seriously than the 1st, and the minutes played are a better representative - so I'd weight them.

The easiest way is to take 1* JLT1, 2* JLT2 & 3 *JLT3 and average them, or use some sort of combination based on weighting the later games higher. It woks really well with the rookies.

 

[stevebbb]

If I may be so bold, 2 suggestions on the above.

1. is to scale the players outputs, e.g. Swallow had 80 points in 53% GT in JLT1. How does that play out to a full game? I'd scale it up to 75% game time with the points per minute at approx 75% of the demonstrated output, giving Swallow a full game equivalent of approximately 105pts. Most of the others bar O'meara should stand.


2. I'd recommend a 5th set of columns, one based on scaling the importance of the games. As a general rule, teams take the 3rd game more seriously than the 2nd, and the 2nd more seriously than the 1st, and the minutes played are a better representative - so I'd weight them.

The easiest way is to take 1* JLT1, 2* JLT2 & 3 *JLT3 and average them, or use some sort of combination based on weighting the later games higher. It woks really well with the rookies.

Appreciate the input, does makes a lot of sense.
If I can be bothered I'll do it

 

[Metapod]

Beams selected to play on Thursday... imagine a few teams will change come Friday morning