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Coach John Longmire - Part II

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What should we do about the coaching situation?

  • We should sack Longmire before his contract is over and bring in someone new.

    Votes: 31 34.1%

  • We should allow Longmire to see out his contract, but we should definitely not give him a new one.

    Votes: 18 19.8%

  • We should allow Longmire to see out his contract, seeing how he goes before offering a new one.

    Votes: 33 36.3%

  • We should extend Longmire's contract beyond its current duration.

    Votes: 9 9.9%
  • Total voters
    91

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The Swans Blog said:
Swans are in a transition year where game style is concerned. They're no longer winning contested every week, or even topping the tackle count. They're trying to implement a tempo style with a lot of control through short kicks and possession, and burst on the counter.
Click to expand...

I disagree.
Slow ball movement or as Tuco highlights lateral or backwards kicks doesn't necessarily equate to a possession based game. It can just be simply unimaginative risk averse football.
If we were implementing the gameplan you refer then it would be reasonable to expect our uncontested possession count would be up.
However our UCP is actually the lowest it has been since 2013 (our overall number of kicks remains at our 2014/18 average).

Pre-season there was some indication we were attempting a more controlled possession game, for example going at the 45 to create space/run, I've seen no such implementation in the season proper.
 
The Swans Blog said:
Swans are in a transition year where game style is concerned. They're no longer winning contested every week, or even topping the tackle count. They're trying to implement a tempo style with a lot of control through short kicks and possession, and burst on the counter.

Ronke, Rohan, Papley and Jones are quick, Stoddart and Ling are faster yet and they're carving up the NEAFL, while Florent and Hayward are growing in confidence every week, and they're quick too.

I don't think the players are completely across it yet and with the significant coaching panel changes, almost all of them changing, the team will be a bit inconsistent for a while. It usually takes 2-3 seasons to adopt a new style of play.

For all that champion Clarko, he was at the bottom early, won they '08 gf, out of the 8 in '09, struggled in '10. After '15 out straight sets then no finals. He's changed style 3 times.

Swans have changed style 3 or 4 times since '05 and only once missed the finals. We'll make the finals this year, and we may well have a tilt at the cup too, but I suspect next year with this style is where we'll make it rain money.
Click to expand...


Grundy jack and McVeigh are all best 22 and could all retire seasons end
Kennedy is in his 30s
Ditto buddy

So why are we preparing for it to rain in a couple of years

Horse has the tools now and doesn’t use them, why would he suddenly figure it out when the stars age more
 

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hairy biker said:
Watching the game last night I thought of the Jack Riewoldt criticism of the Richmond gameplan back in 2014; ball movement too slow, too many sideways kicks allowing the opposition to flood back so that when the ball was bombed into the 50 the forwards were outnumbered etc. Hardwick gave JR a fair old whack and certainly the Tigers 'keepies off' style gave us problems, but when Richmond adopted pressure football, the run off HB, support runners, quick ball movement, often through the centre corridor, getting the ball into the fwd 50 and locking it in there, well....

Now certainly some personnel changes, particularly quick small fwd fleet, a season for the ages from Dusty, but Richmond swung away from the possession football used so effectively by Hawthorn to an up tempo attacking mindset and it established an identifiable Richmond brand.

Watching us at present I struggle to define a Swans identity, other than 'hard working'.

Since Longmire took over I'd suggest, very basically, we have focussed on contested ball, high tackle count, keep the ball moving fwd, force the opposition wide, keep opposition fwd 50s shallow, use a spare/3rd up and quickly transition out the opposite side.

In the years 2012 - 2016 we topped the contested possession count in 4 of the 5 seasons. 2017 we were 5th, 2018 we are currently 8th.
In the years 2012 - 2016 we topped the tackle count in 4 of the 5 seasons. 2017 we were 12th, 2018 we are currently 11th.
In the years 2012 - 2016 we ranked between 2nd and 6th in the I50 count, 2017 we were 11th, 2018 we are 8th
Intercept marks are only available for the last 4 years; 2015 2nd, 2016 1st, 2017 6th, 2018 12th

The above are what I would consider key stats/indicators of the Longmire gameplan.
Comparing 2012-16, with 2017 and again with 2018 shows a clear drop off in those measures.

Another area we have dropped off is in overall disposals. 2012 - 2016 we ranked between 2nd and 5th, 2017 we were 13th, similarly 2018 we are 13th.
(There appears no discernible pattern in other measures, eg clearances, uncontested possession, R50s, marks, MI50, bounces, k/hb ratio).

We have clearly lost some important players (particularly flankers such as Shaw & Malceski), this season we have been hit with the loss of talls, but we have recruited a superstar in Buddy and there is still significant talent on the list.

Watching in 2017/8 I find it difficult to see any real change in the Longmire gameplan, but based on what I see and the stats above there has been a clear drop off in its effectiveness.
Now I'm sure there will be an argument that we are still 4-3 and made the SF last year after 0-6, but unless there is significant personnel changes good teams rarely fall off the cliff, but rather are subject to gradual decline.

So, as I see it, the options are;
the team lifts in the KPIs I've listed above or the gameplan is modified or we change personnel (talls/back half run in) or of course I could be totally wrong and we'll go on to have a successful season(s).
OR the gradual decline continues because nothing changes.
Click to expand...

Cheers for taking the time to put together an excellent post worth reading! Have a good one, love the stats and think youve summed it up really well.
 
Kapanis said:
We're on a permanent rebuild, it's how good teams do it. Buddy's 31, gonna be an interesting couple of years watching how the swans work this.
Click to expand...

Agreed. In the last 15 years we have missed the finals once, in 2009. In that time we have rejuvenated the team continuously, for the most part staying very competitive while doing it. We had a peak in 2005 and 2006 and then again from 2012 to 2016, two clusters of grand final appearances, and when we "dropped" down the ladder it was only as far as the lower half of the 8.

That is a remarkable record at a time when so much is done to equalise the competition and to ensure that success is more evenly spread through the competition There are really only three teams who have shown that kind of gravity-defying consistency - the Hawks, the Cats and us. It is a record that has raised expectations around here in a way that seems pretty unreasonable. There is a sense of entitlement around here that leads to massive over-reactions to anything that goes wrong. Rather than be happy about constantly being in the mix each season, people complain about our conversion rate, only winning 2 out of 5 Grand Finals.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be wanting to win, that we shouldn't be doing whatever we can to continue to put the team in the best position to win, that we should just rest on the laurels of that period of sustained success without question.

We are in the midst of a massive injury crisis - how many other teams are currently playing without their first choice ruckman, first choice ruck/forward, first choice full forward and first choice centre half forward? And yet despite that we went down to Geelong and won the game.

The big difference between the game against Geelong and the game against North? Conversion. We had more inside 50s against North, but we butchered our set shots all evening.

It was a shit game, skills were deplorable, there is plenty to be unhappy about. But what isn't needed is panic or this rush to scapegoat and blame people for what is going on. It doesn't serve any productive purpose.

We sit with a 4-3 record, in the 8. We are only two wins off top. We have already played the teams coming 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th. We have beaten three of them and lost to one of them by two points. In what is shaping up to be a very close season, we are well and truly in the mix. We will bring key players back in, we are about to have a run of games that includes playing the current bottom three sides. It looks like, again, we are going to be a team that is going to the finals, all the while getting games into the next generation of players (Heeney, Mills, Florent, Hayward, Papley, Melican, Fox...) who are going to be the core of the side for a long time to come.

I have no idea why there is so much doom and gloom around here. How would some of you fare following the likes of Carlton or Melbourne?
 
RobbieK said:
Agreed. In the last 15 years we have missed the finals once, in 2009. In that time we have rejuvenated the team continuously, for the most part staying very competitive while doing it. We had a peak in 2005 and 2006 and then again from 2012 to 2016, two clusters of grand final appearances, and when we "dropped" down the ladder it was only as far as the lower half of the 8.

That is a remarkable record at a time when so much is done to equalise the competition and to ensure that success is more evenly spread through the competition There are really only three teams who have shown that kind of gravity-defying consistency - the Hawks, the Cats and us. It is a record that has raised expectations around here in a way that seems pretty unreasonable. There is a sense of entitlement around here that leads to massive over-reactions to anything that goes wrong. Rather than be happy about constantly being in the mix each season, people complain about our conversion rate, only winning 2 out of 5 Grand Finals.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be wanting to win, that we shouldn't be doing whatever we can to continue to put the team in the best position to win, that we should just rest on the laurels of that period of sustained success without question.

We are in the midst of a massive injury crisis - how many other teams are currently playing without their first choice ruckman, first choice ruck/forward, first choice full forward and first choice centre half forward? And yet despite that we went down to Geelong and won the game.

The big difference between the game against Geelong and the game against North? Conversion. We had more inside 50s against North, but we butchered our set shots all evening.

It was a shit game, skills were deplorable, there is plenty to be unhappy about. But what isn't needed is panic or this rush to scapegoat and blame people for what is going on. It doesn't serve any productive purpose.

We sit with a 4-3 record, in the 8. We are only two wins off top. We have already played the teams coming 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th. We have beaten three of them and lost to one of them by two points. In what is shaping up to be a very close season, we are well and truly in the mix. We will bring key players back in, we are about to have a run of games that includes playing the current bottom three sides. It looks like, again, we are going to be a team that is going to the finals, all the while getting games into the next generation of players (Heeney, Mills, Florent, Hayward, Papley, Melican, Fox...) who are going to be the core of the side for a long time to come.

I have no idea why there is so much doom and gloom around here. How would some of you fare following the likes of Carlton or Melbourne?
Click to expand...
Excellent post! My feelings exactly!
 
hairy biker said:
Watching the game last night I thought of the Jack Riewoldt criticism of the Richmond gameplan back in 2014; ball movement too slow, too many sideways kicks allowing the opposition to flood back so that when the ball was bombed into the 50 the forwards were outnumbered etc. Hardwick gave JR a fair old whack and certainly the Tigers 'keepies off' style gave us problems, but when Richmond adopted pressure football, the run off HB, support runners, quick ball movement, often through the centre corridor, getting the ball into the fwd 50 and locking it in there, well....

Now certainly some personnel changes, particularly quick small fwd fleet, a season for the ages from Dusty, but Richmond swung away from the possession football used so effectively by Hawthorn to an up tempo attacking mindset and it established an identifiable Richmond brand.

Watching us at present I struggle to define a Swans identity, other than 'hard working'.

Since Longmire took over I'd suggest, very basically, we have focussed on contested ball, high tackle count, keep the ball moving fwd, force the opposition wide, keep opposition fwd 50s shallow, use a spare/3rd up and quickly transition out the opposite side.

In the years 2012 - 2016 we topped the contested possession count in 4 of the 5 seasons. 2017 we were 5th, 2018 we are currently 8th.
In the years 2012 - 2016 we topped the tackle count in 4 of the 5 seasons. 2017 we were 12th, 2018 we are currently 11th.
In the years 2012 - 2016 we ranked between 2nd and 6th in the I50 count, 2017 we were 11th, 2018 we are 8th
Intercept marks are only available for the last 4 years; 2015 2nd, 2016 1st, 2017 6th, 2018 12th

The above are what I would consider key stats/indicators of the Longmire gameplan.
Comparing 2012-16, with 2017 and again with 2018 shows a clear drop off in those measures.

Another area we have dropped off is in overall disposals. 2012 - 2016 we ranked between 2nd and 5th, 2017 we were 13th, similarly 2018 we are 13th.
(There appears no discernible pattern in other measures, eg clearances, uncontested possession, R50s, marks, MI50, bounces, k/hb ratio).

We have clearly lost some important players (particularly flankers such as Shaw & Malceski), this season we have been hit with the loss of talls, but we have recruited a superstar in Buddy and there is still significant talent on the list.

Watching in 2017/8 I find it difficult to see any real change in the Longmire gameplan, but based on what I see and the stats above there has been a clear drop off in its effectiveness.
Now I'm sure there will be an argument that we are still 4-3 and made the SF last year after 0-6, but unless there is significant personnel changes good teams rarely fall off the cliff, but rather are subject to gradual decline.

So, as I see it, the options are;
the team lifts in the KPIs I've listed above or the gameplan is modified or we change personnel (talls/back half run in) or of course I could be totally wrong and we'll go on to have a successful season(s).
OR the gradual decline continues because nothing changes.
Click to expand...

Good analysis and probably true. The one area I have question mark is accepting stats from 2018 after only 7 games as being representative of a sample size sufficient in size to provide meaningful data capable of comparison with full years 2012 to 2017. The very nature of statistical sampling to test hypothesis is that it requires a large sample size. A full season does to an extent, 7 games doesn't.

What I see in AFL each year is that when the season starts and all teams have goal of a finals berth the competitiveness early from ALL teams is quite strong. It's only when strong teams establish patterns and weak teams lose impetus that 'upsets' become less frequent. That coincidentally is the data sample you have chosen for comparison because it's all that is available at this point. You must also accept that the fact we have played the majority of our games in 2018 against top eight sides and that will influence standing on stats.

We have in the past habitually dominated midfield. Midfield ran deep enough that any inconsistency by one was compensated by others. We no longer have Mitchell and Hanners (due to body wear and year) is a shadow of his former self and sadly may play out his days that way. Kennedy (usually most consistent) has had patches of inconsistency to match Parkers regular inconsistency . Heeney (brilliant at his best) has yet to show that brilliance consistently. We are now vulnerable there.

I'll watch with hope how we perform against more moderate opposition now the draw eases
 

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Blacky said:
At 3 this thread already has more pages than the Longmire coaching manual.
Click to expand...
You say that like it's a bad thing but one of the biggest criticisms about Eade was he was overly complicated. When Horse first joined the Swans he watched Eade put forward another overly complicated plan which clearly went over the players heads. When Horse asked Roos what it all meant Roos said "don't worry about it". Is that what you want your assistants to say to your team instructions?!?
 
kickthething said:
That is unbelievable, a manager talking up someone he manages!
Click to expand...

Aye. I have to reach for the heart pills whenever I hear Pickers talking about one of his charges. From memory, Pickers no longer manages Clarko but they are still mates.
 

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Even the best coach has a use by date , I think you can point to consistency of ladder position and that is fine

But don’t forget we made a solid transition from Roos to Longmire or even going back further Eade to Roos to Longmire

The swans have invested heavily in the list when star talent and have a team capable of achieving great things so not sure where this grand idea of unfair expectations really comes from

We have some fairly talented players in their peak we also have one of the largest and lengthiest contracts on our list and absolute contender for all time great. If we don’t win a flag with him say what you want it will be judged a failed recruit.

Ohh but we got 50k members and buddy is awesome to watch so it’s a success.... maybe but we know reality is if we are developing then you don’t have that high contract on the list and hover around contention

My concern is wasted talent and the way we play is bloody awful even in the wins

But people are welcome to wait until we miss finals or drop all the way down to make change I’d rather be pro active in life and deal with glaring issues as they occur to avoid absolute disaster

We won’t win another flag with this coach mark my words
 
RobbieK said:
Agreed. In the last 15 years we have missed the finals once, in 2009. In that time we have rejuvenated the team continuously, for the most part staying very competitive while doing it. We had a peak in 2005 and 2006 and then again from 2012 to 2016, two clusters of grand final appearances, and when we "dropped" down the ladder it was only as far as the lower half of the 8.

That is a remarkable record at a time when so much is done to equalise the competition and to ensure that success is more evenly spread through the competition There are really only three teams who have shown that kind of gravity-defying consistency - the Hawks, the Cats and us. It is a record that has raised expectations around here in a way that seems pretty unreasonable. There is a sense of entitlement around here that leads to massive over-reactions to anything that goes wrong. Rather than be happy about constantly being in the mix each season, people complain about our conversion rate, only winning 2 out of 5 Grand Finals.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be wanting to win, that we shouldn't be doing whatever we can to continue to put the team in the best position to win, that we should just rest on the laurels of that period of sustained success without question.

We are in the midst of a massive injury crisis - how many other teams are currently playing without their first choice ruckman, first choice ruck/forward, first choice full forward and first choice centre half forward? And yet despite that we went down to Geelong and won the game.

The big difference between the game against Geelong and the game against North? Conversion. We had more inside 50s against North, but we butchered our set shots all evening.

It was a shit game, skills were deplorable, there is plenty to be unhappy about. But what isn't needed is panic or this rush to scapegoat and blame people for what is going on. It doesn't serve any productive purpose.
It is not doom and gloom. Its discussion by a very football savvy and educated readership. And if we were in the same position as the toffs I would be in exactly the same position I have been for the last 68 years. Supporting the Bloods through thick and microscopic thinness. Please don't equate critical football analysis with being a weak supporter. Its really cheer sqadism. And really annoying quitter frankly.
We sit with a 4-3 record, in the 8. We are only two wins off top. We have already played the teams coming 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th. We have beaten three of them and lost to one of them by two points. In what is shaping up to be a very close season, we are well and truly in the mix. We will bring key players back in, we are about to have a run of games that includes playing the current bottom three sides. It looks like, again, we are going to be a team that is going to the finals, all the while getting games into the next generation of players (Heeney, Mills, Florent, Hayward, Papley, Melican, Fox...) who are going to be the core of the side for a long time to come.

I have no idea why there is so much doom and gloom around here. How would some of you fare following the likes of Carlton or Melbourne?
Click to expand...
 
Having a bit of a problem with the technology. But in reply to Robbie. Mate please don't equate critical football discussion with being a weak supporter. If we become hopeless like the toffs I will be where I have been for the past 68 years. Supporting the Bloods through some of the worst and longest periods of defeats, drubbings, thrashings, rogerings and pantsings. Its really silly to equate educated football discussion with defeatism.
 
The King! said:
Even the best coach has a use by date , I think you can point to consistency of ladder position and that is fine

But don’t forget we made a solid transition from Roos to Longmire or even going back further Eade to Roos to Longmire

The swans have invested heavily in the list when star talent and have a team capable of achieving great things so not sure where this grand idea of unfair expectations really comes from

We have some fairly talented players in their peak we also have one of the largest and lengthiest contracts on our list and absolute contender for all time great. If we don’t win a flag with him say what you want it will be judged a failed recruit.

Ohh but we got 50k members and buddy is awesome to watch so it’s a success.... maybe but we know reality is if we are developing then you don’t have that high contract on the list and hover around contention

My concern is wasted talent and the way we play is bloody awful even in the wins

But people are welcome to wait until we miss finals or drop all the way down to make change I’d rather be pro active in life and deal with glaring issues as they occur to avoid absolute disaster

We won’t win another flag with this coach mark my words
Click to expand...
Schwatta nailed this morning. The opposition have worked Longmire's game plan out. Time to change. The game plan. And if the Stallion cant or wont. The coach.
 
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