Recommitted Josh Kelly [re-signed]

[Glen Buterol]

IF North trade for Kelly I suspect it'll be their first this year & whatever they get for trading Goldstein (late 1st?).

 

[Benj7]

IF North trade for Kelly I suspect it'll be their first this year & whatever they get for trading Goldstein (late 1st?).

Where do we sign for a late first? We will add steak knives

 

[Glen Buterol]

Where do we sign for a late first? We will add steak knives

The Dogs could do worse

 

[Great8]

IF North trade for Kelly I suspect it'll be their first this year & whatever they get for trading Goldstein (late 1st?).

Can't see that cutting it. Would need a couple of top 10 picks as starters

 

[Glen Buterol]

Can't see that cutting it. Would need a couple of top 10 picks as starters

Pick 6 (which they currently hold) & say pick 16 would go close to getting the deal done imo

 

[bird_man]

Sounds like it's between staying at the Giants or going to the Saints.

Honestly, I think GWS will do what it takes to sign him on a two year deal, it might mean they have to let someone like Whitfield go to free up a bit of space and he'd obviously have to take less than what he'd be on at St Kilda but you would think he would earn himself a flag in the meantime.

 

[Great8]

Pick 6 (which they currently hold) & say pick 16 would go close to getting the deal done imo

Maybe, personally I don't think that's enough but who knows

 

[Snake_Baker]

Pick 6 (which they currently hold) & say pick 16 would go close to getting the deal done imo

Going by the AFL draft weighted system, Norths expected 1st & 2nd round draft picks (6 & 22 = ~2700 points) would compensate for Kellys draft status (2 = ~2500 points)

 

[Unity-28]

Would North risk trading poorly and letting him go to say the Lion's through PSD?

As ive said before the Giants wont be ridiculous in their trading. But i dont think North are going to try and screw us either.

Getting a fair trade isnt hardball. North think he is worth 9 mil for 9 years then they have to put up in the trade as well.

If i see Smith and the others all sign on then ill know 100%, at the moment its a gut feel he is gone.

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i dont think north would risk it, but depending of how hard gws play. if our first this year, and first next year aint enough, who knows what can happen.....ultimately, if he does go into psd, he just puts a massive price on his head, and we front load his contract (which we will do anyway)
i honestly dont think it will get to that.

 

[Colonial]

i dont think north would risk it, but depending of how hard gws play. if our first this year, and first next year aint enough, who knows what can happen.....ultimately, if he does go into psd, he just puts a massive price on his head, and we front load his contract (which we will do anyway)
i honestly dont think it will get to that.

I dont think so either.

IF Kelly goes a trade will be done.

But if you have the funds you would be mad to think other clubs dont have it below you on the ladder.

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[Snake_Baker]

i dont think north would risk it, but depending of how hard gws play. if our first this year, and first next year aint enough, who knows what can happen.....ultimately, if he does go into psd, he just puts a massive price on his head, and we front load his contract (which we will do anyway)
i honestly dont think it will get to that.

GWS would be the ones taking the risk, not us.

In the bizarre way out event that this might occur, North would lose nothing and gain nothing.

GWS would lose Kelly AND Norths draft picks.

GG can talk it up all he likes, but it won't happen. They aren't that stupid.

 

[Colonial]

GWS would be the ones taking the risk, not us.

In the bizarre way out event that this might occur, North would lose nothing and gain nothing.

GWS would lose Kelly AND Norths draft picks.

GG can talk it up all he likes, but it won't happen. They aren't that stupid.

Neither are North. Funny how you think other clubs wouldnt jump and pay that money to get him there.

I havent talked it up at all. North fans threatening something that would cause them to lose Kelly.

Both clubs wouldnt risk it. Talk tough as you want but your club wont be fools about it.

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[aussierulesrules]

It is/will be down to blue and white and we want him stitched up nice and tightly and for the money he's worth.

A million bucks will likely be 5-6% of the salary cap in 2023, and I expect a 28 year old Kelly to be worth every piece of 5-6% of the cap. It will be a steal. What club wouldn't take a 28 year old Kelly for that?! Good times!

I reckon you're absolutely dreaming if you think you're getting him for a mil a year. Pure fantasy.

He's already worth more than that now, at just 22yo, so imagine what he could be worth in the latter part of the next 9 years, if salary caps continue to go up and he continues to improve and has maybe won a Brownlow or two and made multiple AA teams?

I'd happily offer him $1.3mil PA for 6 years (and I'd expect St Kilda have or will do just that) which would be $7.8mil in total, and when he's due to come OOC at the end of that time (and probably eligible for FA), he'd be every chance to sign for $1.5mil PA or more, for the following 3 years, which could take him up to $12.7mil for the 9 years you're talking about.

Almost $4mil more over that time than the quaint $9mil offer you're talking about!

If you guys are going to have any chance to get him, you'll likely need to up your offer (if you haven't already) to around the $12mil that it was reported to have gone up to on Monday night.

 

[aussierulesrules]

BTW, if Josh was so desperate to get to North, not only would they not need to resort to offering him a staggering contract that could cripple the club if something goes wrong, but surely he would have asked to be traded there at the end of his initial 2 year rookie contract!?

Did he just forget how much he loved North and how desperately he wanted to get there when he re-signed with GWS the first time around!?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Funny how you think other clubs wouldnt jump and pay that money to get him there.

Other clubs are irrelevant.

North fans threatening something that would cause them to lose Kelly. Both clubs wouldnt risk it. Talk tough as you want but your club wont be fools about it.

Again, our worst case scenario is that we gain nothing and lose nothing.

GWS's worst case scenario is they lose a gun and gain nothing.

As the desired location for the player we would have the negotiation whip hand.

IF the truly bizarre circumstance were to arise and Josh were to hold the club to a financial bidding war, and IF we still had to part with absurd trade picks, then I would expect the club to push back its chair, collect its papers and exit the room. It would simply be an act of idiocy to continue.

1.4 million + 2 x top 10 picks would get us 4 very good players and no single player is worth that much!

 

[coniglio_number1]

Sounds like it's between staying at the Giants or going to the Saints.

Honestly, I think GWS will do what it takes to sign him on a two year deal, it might mean they have to let someone like Whitfield go to free up a bit of space and he'd obviously have to take less than what he'd be on at St Kilda but you would think he would earn himself a flag in the meantime.

Whitfield recently re-signed.

I think you mean smith

 

[bird_man]

Whitfield recently re-signed.

I think you mean smith

No I don't.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I reckon you're absolutely dreaming if you think you're getting him for a mil a year. Pure fantasy.

He's already worth more than that now, at just 22yo,...........

There is no Dow Jones index for players and this is not trading on the foreign exchange market.

This is the sort of rubbish that super coach arm chair types engage in. It's absurd. What if he does a hammy next week? What if he gets shut down with a tag? Do we all run back in here and drop his value drop to 2 x 2nd rounders? I'm sure AFL clubs aren't that ridiculous. If you want to value players like stock then remind yourself that no one buys a stock solely based on its highest fluctuation throughout a particular season..

 

[coniglio_number1]

No I don't.

What team re-signs a player and trades him out a few months later?? Especially a number 1 pick that has proven himself to be a gun?

 

[Colonial]

Other clubs are irrelevant.

Obviously not if North are willing to up their offer depending on other clubs.
Oh and if this does go to psd (it wont) the clubs below you on the ladder will also be relevant.

Again, our worst case scenario is that we gain nothing and lose nothing.

GWS's worst case scenario is they lose a gun and gain nothing.

As the desired location for the player we would have the negotiation whip hand.

IF the truly bizarre circumstance were to arise and Josh were to hold the club to a financial bidding war, and IF we still had to part with absurd trade picks, then I would expect the club to push back its chair, collect its papers and exit the room. It would simply be an act of idiocy to continue.

1.4 million + 2 x top 10 picks would get us 4 very good players and no single player is worth that much!

You can keep trumpeting as much as you wish. It will be 2 high 1st rounders at a minimum if he goes there.

So you would tell him you are willing to pay that mill or more a year but then go hard and try and low ball on the trade? Lol players and managers will love North when they keep failing to get a trade done once agreements are made.

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[bird_man]

What team re-signs a player and trades him out a few months later?? Especially a number 1 pick that has proven himself to be a gun?

If by a few months you mean over a year ago, then yes he did. He is contracted for next year (2018), but he would not be the first contracted player to be traded out.

I'm not saying he will be the one to go, but if you are to keep Kelly I expect someone to be traded out to free up space and Whitfield was just one that came to mind because he would be in high demand and would get the Giants something decent on the trade table as well as free up space.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Obviously not if North are willing to up their offer depending on other clubs.

We won't have to get in to a bidding war with Josh if he chooses us. The only entity that wins out of a bidding war is your club, hence your myopic understanding of this matter.

Oh and if this does go to psd (it wont) the clubs below you on the ladder will also be relevant.

If it goes to the PSD, we will have already conceded. North loses nothing. GWS loses everything. This is very simple math, I don't know why your are struggling with it.

You can keep trumpeting as much as you wish. .

You can keep trumpeting as much as you wish. It will be what North are willing to pay or the PSD. GWS don't hold the whip hand. They hold what North is prepared to give them, Nothing more. If you really want to be a player then pony up with your chip stack and get in the game.

It will be 2 high 1st rounders at a minimum if he goes there.

This is just your opinion and nothing more. Searching through your post history I see little reason to place much weight in your opinion in regards to trades.

So you would tell him you are willing to pay that mill or more a year but then go hard and try and low ball on the trade?

Of course we are going to try to pay the least for the goods. What planet do you live on?

Lol players and managers will love North when they keep failing to get a trade done once agreements are made.

Josh's manager won't give two stuffs about what GWS get out of this. Neither will Josh. It's simply not their business.

You won't be turning your back on a trade because the people that ultimately control your club (aka The AFL) wouldn't allow your club to commit such a ridiculous act of stupidity.

 

[joop]

Going by the AFL draft weighted system, Norths expected 1st & 2nd round draft picks (6 & 22 = ~2700 points) would compensate for Kellys draft status (2 = ~2500 points)

Kelly is worth more than the Pick he was drafted at 4 years ago.
No chance 6 & 22 would get it done. It'd be your 1st rounder this year and next year at a minimum.
You can't say he's worth a 9m 9 year contract then offer up that trade.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Kelly is worth more than the Pick he was drafted at 4 years ago.
No chance 6 & 22 would get it done. It'd be your 1st rounder this year and next year at a minimum.
You can't say he's worth a 9m 9 year contract then offer up that trade.

Why?

He has 4 years less football left in him.

He's a realistic chance to win the Brownlow for GWS this season. Should we also pay them for their Brownlow?

What about a Norm Smith, should we pay THEM for that?

 

[joop]

Why?

He has 4 years less football left in him.

He's a realistic chance to win the Brownlow for GWS this season. Should we also pay them for their Brownlow?

Why? Thought it was pretty easy to understand but anyway....
4 years ago Kelly was drafted at number 2.
Since then he's had 4 years development in an AFL system. His game has progressed every year to where he is now a top 5 player in the league. As you said, he might win the Brownlow this year.
So yeh, pretty easy to see why his value has gone up since he was drafted.