Kenya through to Super Six, finish 2nd in Group B

[red+black]

As far as I can calculate, Sri Lanka defeating West Indies means that Kenya go through to the Super Six.

Assumptions:
Kenya defeat Bangladesh
New Zealand defeat Canada
West Indies defeat Kenya

Scenario One:
Sri Lanka defeat South Africa

Sri Lanka 20
Kenya 16
New Zealand 16
West Indies 14
South Africa 12

- West Indies and South Africa eliminated
- Sri Lanka finish top and Kenya finish 2nd on head to head v NZ.

Scenario Two:
South Africa defeat Sri Lanka

South Africa 16 (2 wins, 1 loss)
Kenya 16 (2 wins, 1 loss)
Sri Lanka 16 (1 win, 2 losses)
New Zealand 16 (1 win, 2 losses)
West Indies 14

Four teams finish level on 16 points. South Africa and Kenya progress as they have 2 wins against teams they are tied with. South Africa will have a better NRR than Kenya, and will finish top. Kenya thus finish 2nd. Chances are that Sri Lanka (+1.396) will end up with a better NRR than New Zealand (+0.402).

- West Indies and New Zealand eliminated
- South Africa finish top, Kenya 2nd, Sri Lanka 3rd.

Hopefully my analysis is correct, but I encourage someone to point out any flaws.

 

[red+black]

Originally posted by red+black
Assumptions:
Kenya defeat Bangladesh
New Zealand defeat Canada
West Indies defeat Kenya

Scenario One:
Sri Lanka defeat South Africa

Sri Lanka 20
Kenya 16
New Zealand 16
West Indies 14
South Africa 12

- West Indies and South Africa eliminated
- Sri Lanka finish top and Kenya finish 2nd on head to head v NZ.

Probably the less likely scenario, but nevertheless, the teams would go through to the Super Six with:
Sri Lanka: 1x4 + 4x1 = 8 points
Kenya: 2x4 + 2x1 = 10 points
New Zealand: 0x4 + 4x1 = 4 points

Originally posted by red+black
Assumptions:
Kenya defeat Bangladesh
New Zealand defeat Canada
West Indies defeat Kenya

Scenario Two:
South Africa defeat Sri Lanka

South Africa 16 (2 wins, 1 loss)
Kenya 16 (2 wins, 1 loss)
Sri Lanka 16 (1 win, 2 losses)
New Zealand 16 (1 win, 2 losses)
West Indies 14

Four teams finish level on 16 points. South Africa and Kenya progress as they have 2 wins against teams they are tied with. South Africa will have a better NRR than Kenya, and will finish top. Kenya thus finish 2nd. Chances are that Sri Lanka (+1.396) will end up with a better NRR than New Zealand (+0.402).

- West Indies and New Zealand eliminated
- South Africa finish top, Kenya 2nd, Sri Lanka 3rd.

Odds are probably with South Africa to win. Assuming that:

The teams would go through to the Super Six with:
South Africa: 2x4 + 2x1 = 10 points
Kenya: 1x4 + 3x1 = 7 points
Sri Lanka: 1x4 + 3x1 = 7 points

As can be seen from the two scenarios, Kenya have qualified, but will be hoping for Sri Lanka to defeat South Africa so they go through with 10 points rather than 7 points.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Amazing effort by the Kenyans ...

 

[DaveW]

Let's wait until Kenya actually beats Bangladesh before we start congratulating them, eh?

 

[wagstaff]

Originally posted by DaveW
Let's wait until Kenya actually beats Bangladesh before we start congratulating them, eh?

Agreed. Like Ian Chappell said on last night's broadcast, it would be dangerous to assume Kenya will beat Bangladesh as they know what is it stake and for once, there is an expectation on them to win.

 

[GoEagles]

Originally posted by wagstaff
Agreed. Like Ian Chappell said on last night's broadcast, it would be dangerous to assume Kenya will beat Bangladesh as they know what is it stake and for once, there is an expectation on them to win.

Kenya currently 0/49 (14 overs). They lost a wicket on the 3rd ball of their innings.

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by GoEagles
Kenya currently 0/49 (14 overs). They lost a wicket on the 3rd ball of their innings.

How did they get back to being '0/' for then?

 

[scmods]

Kenya 2/68 after 18 overs.

 

[dr nick]

amazing, if you are right R+B, NZ's forfeited match has cost them dearly. i bet they would have fancied themselves to be a possible contender to win the tournament.

 

[scmods]

Originally posted by nicko18
amazing, if you are right R+B, NZ's forfeited match has cost them dearly. i bet they would have fancied themselves to be a possible contender to win the tournament.

I fancied them a possible contender to win the tournament!

 

[Kenny_01]

Bangladesh dropping too many catches for my liking.

 

[SpecialBruce]

I prefer this scenario better as I want West Indies in the super 6.

Sri Lanka to beat South Africa
Bangaldesh to beat Kenya (They need to win 1 game)
New Zealand to beat Canada
West Indies to beat Kenya

Sri Lanka 20
New Zealand 16
West Indies 14
Kenya 12
South Africa 12

Kenya and South Africa eliminated.

Possible.

 

[DaveW]

Well Kenya have made 217 in their innings. This could be a good match.

 

[Darky]

Originally posted by DaveW
Well Kenya have made 217 in their innings. This could be a good match.

It's probably fair to say that Bangladesh's batting is what's let it down so far (not that the bowling's been good). The top order has been nothing short of disgraceful and it's usually been some late rallying by the tail that gets them past three figures.

120 all out vs Canada (chasing 180)
124 all out vs SL
108 all out vs SAF
32 (for 2) vs WI after 8.1 overs
198 (for 7) vs NZ

Kenya might be the least threatening attack they'll face, so it could be line ball. They've conceded

0-142 in 21.1 overs vs SAF
197 (all out in 49 overs) vs Canada
157 (all out in 45 overs) vs SL

Okay, the last one doesn't back up the argument but let's look at that as just an abherration.

Should go down to the wire.

 

[The Ewok]

Originally posted by red+black
As far as I can calculate, Sri Lanka defeating West Indies means that Kenya go through to the Super Six.

Assumptions:
Kenya defeat Bangladesh
New Zealand defeat Canada
West Indies defeat Kenya

Scenario One:
Sri Lanka defeat South Africa

Sri Lanka 20
Kenya 16
New Zealand 16
West Indies 14
South Africa 12

- West Indies and South Africa eliminated
- Sri Lanka finish top and Kenya finish 2nd on head to head v NZ.

Scenario Two:
South Africa defeat Sri Lanka

South Africa 16 (2 wins, 1 loss)
Kenya 16 (2 wins, 1 loss)
Sri Lanka 16 (1 win, 2 losses)
New Zealand 16 (1 win, 2 losses)
West Indies 14

Four teams finish level on 16 points. South Africa and Kenya progress as they have 2 wins against teams they are tied with. South Africa will have a better NRR than Kenya, and will finish top. Kenya thus finish 2nd. Chances are that Sri Lanka (+1.396) will end up with a better NRR than New Zealand (+0.402).

- West Indies and New Zealand eliminated
- South Africa finish top, Kenya 2nd, Sri Lanka 3rd.

Hopefully my analysis is correct, but I encourage someone to point out any flaws.

Do you knwo that 'your analysis' is a compete word for word cut and paste from a rec.sport.cricket posting?

 

[EagleBlue]

The amazing thing is that if Kenya beat Bangladesh and SL beat SAF. Kenya will go through to the Super 6 with 10pts as NZ and SL will go through with them. (As I write this Ian Chappell says the same thing)

 

[scmods]

Re: Re: Kenya through to Super Six, finish 2nd in Group B

Originally posted by The Ewok
Do you knwo that 'your analysis' is a compete word for word cut and paste from a rec.sport.cricket posting?

Gosh!! You mean people post on both boards!!

 

[scmods]

Bangladesh 2/17 in the 5th over...

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by DaveW
Let's wait until Kenya actually beats Bangladesh before we start congratulating them, eh?

Congratulations Kenya. Through to the second round of the World Cup. Test status can't be far away now.

 

[wagstaff]

Originally posted by DaveW
Congratulations Kenya. Through to the second round of the World Cup. Test status can't be far away now.

If South Africa lose to Sri Lanka, this means that Kenya will go into the Super Six with the highest number of points in their group (and anyone bar Australia).

This would probably mean they would need only one win to qualify for the semi-finals - Zimbabwe were in a similar situation in 1999 but weren't able to deliver - will Kenya be able to take the next step as the surprise qualifier?

 

[red+black]

Re: Re: Kenya through to Super Six, finish 2nd in Group B

Originally posted by The Ewok
Do you knwo that 'your analysis' is a compete word for word cut and paste from a rec.sport.cricket posting?

yeah that was me too, I posted here first, then followed up on RSC. Congratulations, now you know my name.

Anyway, very early on I was going to concede to DaveW that yes, Kenya were no certainties to beat Bangladesh. A few dropped catches here, a few rash shots there, and the result could have been different. I was almost hoping that they would lose to make up for the injustice the West Indies copped with the washout.

Kenya will now hope for a Sri Lanka win v South Africa so they carry 10 points through (11 if they manage to upset the Windies too).

Anyway, pencil Saturday March 15 in:
Australia V Kenya (D/N in Durban)

 

[red+black]

Originally posted by DaveW
Congratulations Kenya. Through to the second round of the World Cup. Test status can't be far away now.

at least five years plus according to the ICC !

 

[red+black]

Originally posted by wagstaff
This would probably mean they would need only one win to qualify for the semi-finals - Zimbabwe were in a similar situation in 1999 but weren't able to deliver - will Kenya be able to take the next step as the surprise qualifier?

I won't look too far ahead, but assuming Sri Lanka beat South Africa, Kenya just might manage to qualify for the semis by losing all three Super Six games. If they did, they would qualify 4th, and probably play Australia in the semi-finals.

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka, I'd say Kenya don't have a prayer.

Kenya's best chance would be a Super Six match up v Zimbabwe or England, but I really wouldn't give them much hope.

 

[red+black]

Originally posted by EagleBlue
The amazing thing is that if Kenya beat Bangladesh and SL beat SAF. Kenya will go through to the Super 6 with 10pts as NZ and SL will go through with them. (As I write this Ian Chappell says the same thing)

that's right, as I said in the 2nd post:

Sri Lanka: 1x4 + 4x1 = 8 points
Kenya: 2x4 + 2x1 = 10 points
New Zealand: 0x4 + 4x1 = 4 points

as you said, if Sri Lanka defeat South Africa.

Remember, Kenya have already qualified but still have a game to play. Whoever thought that the Kenyans would get the opportunity to rest some players?