Werewolf Kingmaker Werewolf

[Bet on Blue]

Just good.

No the initial King was chosen from everyone, by the Kingmaker. The Kingmaker isn't privy to anyone's roles.

 

[Red mist]

The assassins killed BJD first. That's some reactionary glass half empty stuff. They're running scared.

 

[DapperJong]

sante kill red mist he is muddying the waters like a damn fool.

 

[Red mist]

No the initial King was chosen from everyone, by the Kingmaker. The Kingmaker isn't privy to anyone's roles.

Yeah I'm following, just not posting correctly.

 

[sante]

The Kingmaker chose The Filth Wizard prior to Day 1.

Yep. Sorry I got confused with KingMaker and king.

 

[SM]

Basically we are meant to give advice to the king. So it's not a vote count as such, but reasoning as to your lynch choice. But yeah, ultimately the king decides. So if we are pretty set on an assassin and the king ignores us, well then we have a lead.

But how would we know someone's an assassin if we have nothing to go on?

 

[Red mist]

sante kill red mist he is muddying the waters like a damn fool.

I'm just seeking clarification you translucent pooh.

 

[Red mist]

Yep. Sorry I got confused with KingMaker and king.

This.

 

[sante]

I'm thinking SM is playing dumb on purpose.


Where is everyone though? I won't make my kill til I get home from work which is around 7, sorry guys

 

[SM]

I'm thinking SM is playing dumb on purpose.


Where is everyone though? I won't make my kill til I get home from work which is around 7, sorry guys

I'm really not, I just have no idea how this is working. Feel free to kill me though Assassin.

 

[Kennedy Parker]

But how would we know someone's an assassin if we have nothing to go on?

Same as any game, look at their postings, behaviour, reactions etc.

It's no different to early stages of any game when the seer is still hidden and no evil have been killed.

 

[brahj]

So am I the Kingmaker?

 

[SM]

Same as any game, look at their postings, behaviour, reactions etc.

It's no different to early stages of any game when the seer is still hidden and no evil have been killed.

But that's my point. We're going on hunches - and there's no seer to confirm any roles. So if we push for the King to kill someone we think is evil and they don't kill them, it doesn't tell us anything as we don't know if the person we wanted to kill simply wasn't evil and the King had a better idea of someone to kill, or if the person we wanted to kill IS evil and the King is also evil.

Just seems far more guesswork than usual with a lot more standing around doing nothing from non-Kings who can't even affect who gets killed.

 

[DapperJong]

But how would we know someone's an assassin if we have nothing to go on?

At this stage yeah we are in crapshoot mode, unfortunately we have to wait for something to reveal itself. As Dennis has argued today, TFW could be a worthwhile lynch because he chose to kill someone outside of the assassin PM. Ya know

 

[Dennis Trumpet]

Already we are at 10 assassins and 19 good.

Best case scenario for the next 5 days only villagers get elected as king and they kill 5 assassins. And the assassins have killed 5 villagers overnight.

That would leave us with 5 assassins and 14 good. However, 6 villagers have already had a turn at being king, and the kingmaker can't elect himself. So there are only 12 people that can be elected and 5 of them are villagers.

Still assuming 2 more days with perfect results, and it will be 3 assassins left and 12 good, but now 8 villagers have had a turn at being king, and the kingmaker can't elect himself, so there are only 6 possible people to elect and 3 of them are evil.

1 more day and there will be 2 assassins left and 11 good but 9 have had a turn at being king and the king can't elect himself, so there are only 3 people that can be elected and 2 of them are evil.

So even if the kingmakers always picks and villager, and these villagers always manage to lynch an assassin, then this game will be a 1-10 finish.

Each time an assassin is made king the ratio changes, there will be 1 more assassin and 1 less villager, and each time a villager executes another villager, it also changes.
one of these could be nullified if an assassin king kills the hero, but then the hero will be killed the next night, so at best he can only take out one assassin.

Taking that into account, if the town makes just 5 more errors, then it will be impossible for them to win.

And considering the chances the king electing a villager, and then the villager lynching an assassin is (18/28)x(10/28) is just 22% then there is pretty much no way that the village can win this game...

 

[SM]

At this stage yeah we are in crapshoot mode, unfortunately we have to wait for something to reveal itself. As Dennis has argued today, TFW could be a worthwhile lynch because he chose to kill someone outside of the assassin PM. Ya know

So TFW guessed someone was an Assassin and guessed wrong?

 

[SM]

Because of the amount of effort and thought going into his posts I think Sante should be killing Crumpet.

In confusing new conceptual games, the people who hit the ground running are usually those who are in a PM where they have extra info/can ask questions away from the thread.

 

[Red mist]

So am I the Kingmaker?

I'm the groom of the stool?

 

[The Filth Wizard]

So TFW guessed someone was an Assassin and guessed wrong?

Correct.

 

[DapperJong]

So TFW guessed someone was an Assassin and guessed wrong?

If you're to believe he's a villager, then yes. But he could have been an assassin and obviously chose to lynch anyone who wasn't a teammate.

 

[SM]

Correct.

Dang, you evil sonofabitch.

 

[brahj]

So TFW guessed someone was an Assassin and guessed wrong?

I think he is saying that Filth can't be an Assassin because he was the first King.

Which means Dapper is an Assassin.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

And considering the chances the king electing a villager, and then the villager lynching an assassin is (18/28)x(10/28) is just 22% then there is pretty much no way that the village can win this game...

Alright A Beautiful Mind, tone it down with the math essays.

You have hit one nail on the head though, the ratio means realistically this game works better with less starting Assassins.

 

[brahj]

Alright A Beautiful Mind, tone it down with the math essays.

You have hit one nail on the head though, the ratio means realistically this game works better with less starting Assassins.

Does this mean that Dennis is the first King?

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Does this mean that Dennis is the first King?

It means he may be the true king.