Prediction Knowing that our games are over at Half Time if we're trailing...

[ReaperX]

Hey guys,

So I dunno how many of you have felt at half time in our 3 losses this year, but for me, it's been a foreboding and undisputed knowledge that, despite being well within striking distance in all of these matches, I simply KNEW that we wouldn't win.

Lately I've been asking myself; is this simply down to my negativity, or are there stats to back this up? Because at the beginning of Hardwick's tenure at Richmond, even though we lacked some polish, I distinctly remember having that feeling that if we were close at half time, we were still in the game and could pull off a win.

So I went back into the archives and looked at all of our results since 2010. What I was looking for were times where we'd won matches, after trailing at half time. Here's what I came up with:

---------------------

2010: Ladder Position - 15th, 6 wins.

Round 14, 2010 - Sydney - trailed by 12 points at half time, won by 4 points.
Round 15, 2010 - Fremantle - trailed by 11 points at half time, won by 19 points.
Round 18, 2010 - Adelaide - trailed by 19 points at half time, won by 20 points.

Honourable mention:

Round 22, 2010 - Port Adelaide - trailed by 53 points at half time, got to within 4 points in the last quarter, lost by 10 points.

2011: Ladder Position - 12th, 8 wins and 1 draw.

Round 5, 2011 - North Melbourne - trailed by 10 points at half time, won by 9 points.
Round 9, 2011 - Essendon - trailed by 1 point at half time, won by 16 points.
Round 23, 2011 - Adelaide - trailed by 16 points at half time, won by 22 points.

2012: Ladder Position - 12th, 10 wins and 1 draw.

Nothing.

2013: Ladder Position - 5th, 15 wins

Round 19, 2013 - Hawthorn - trailed by 2 points at half time, won by 41 points.

2014: Ladder Position - 8th, 12 wins.

Nothing

2015: Current Ladder Position = 9th, 2 wins from 5 matches.

Nothing.

---------------------

What a truly alarming stat. So despite playing in finals for the last 2 seasons, and winning 10+ games in a season for the past 3 seasons, we've only won 1 solitary game that we've trailed in at half time. And that game was a game where we led for most of the first half anyway, and were unlucky to be behind in at half time.

In the 2 seasons prior to this though, despite in an overall sense winning far less games, we won 6 matches from being behind at half time, and there was a 7th match in there against Port in 2010 that we nearly won from a nigh impossible position to win from.

What this tells me, clearly, is that as we have "improved", we have lost the ability to fight out games when things are not going our way. Our players play like spoilt prima-donnas that will only run and tackle and chase when things are absolutely perfect and when it suits their agenda.

Now, how is this inevitably Hardwick's fault? It's Hardwick's fault because he doesn't put enough accountability on these players to "fight and fight and win", like our song says. He's not a horrible coach technically speaking, but he simply seems incapable of getting this list to fight when the chips are down.

We can reverse form over the course of a season, but even with that 9 match winning streak, we never trailed at half time in any of those wins.

So essentially, opposition teams have learned that, if they stop us early, and we don't get going in the 1st half, we don't have the passion, desire, or ability to actually "will" ourselves to tough victories.

Melbourne knew it, Western Bulldogs knew it, and Geelong knew it. Everybody knows it, and yet, we either won't, or can't, actually do anything to fix it.

We only win when we're in-front at half time, so if we're trailing at half time, it's safe to turn off the telly, because you already know the result.

It is pathetic, it is insipid, and it is an infectious, insidious disease that has spread through Hardwick, his coaching team, and every single RFC listed player currently at the club.

Hardwick is a good-spirited bloke, and he wants to see us succeed. But he has clearly hit the wall here, and he is not capable of taking us any further, or overcoming this hurdle. He simply doesn't have what it takes to "will" us to victory.

 

[Nallad]

You only knew at half time? I knew before the game

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

heck man, you need a hobby

 

[ReaperX]

heck man, you need a hobby

Richmond is my life. The rest of the things involved in staying alive, i.e work, friends, eating, social life... those are my minor hobbies during the week while I'm waiting for the only 2 actual important hours of my life to happen on the weekend, which is when Richmond is playing.

Good god almighty, if our players played like they were even half as devoted to Richmond as we are on here, we'd have premierships coming out of our ears.

The side lacks the fight required to be a contender.

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

 

[Croat tiger]

You only knew at half time? I knew before the game

So did i and i tipped against us because i know we're the cat's bitches...

 

[Lsta062]

Hey guys,

So I dunno how many of you have felt at half time in our 3 losses this year, but for me, it's been a foreboding and undisputed knowledge that, despite being well within striking distance in all of these matches, I simply KNEW that we wouldn't win.

Lately I've been asking myself; is this simply down to my negativity, or are there stats to back this up? Because at the beginning of Hardwick's tenure at Richmond, even though we lacked some polish, I distinctly remember having that feeling that if we were close at half time, we were still in the game and could pull off a win.

So I went back into the archives and looked at all of our results since 2010. What I was looking for were times where we'd won matches, after trailing at half time. Here's what I came up with:

---------------------

2010: Ladder Position - 15th, 6 wins.

Round 14, 2010 - Sydney - trailed by 12 points at half time, won by 4 points.
Round 15, 2010 - Fremantle - trailed by 11 points at half time, won by 19 points.
Round 18, 2010 - Adelaide - trailed by 19 points at half time, won by 20 points.

Honourable mention:

Round 22, 2010 - Port Adelaide - trailed by 53 points at half time, got to within 4 points in the last quarter, lost by 10 points.

2011: Ladder Position - 12th, 8 wins and 1 draw.

Round 5, 2011 - North Melbourne - trailed by 10 points at half time, won by 9 points.
Round 9, 2011 - Essendon - trailed by 1 point at half time, won by 16 points.
Round 23, 2011 - Adelaide - trailed by 16 points at half time, won by 22 points.

2012: Ladder Position - 12th, 10 wins and 1 draw.

Nothing.

2013: Ladder Position - 5th, 15 wins

Round 19, 2013 - Hawthorn - trailed by 2 points at half time, won by 41 points.

2014: Ladder Position - 8th, 12 wins.

Nothing

2015: Current Ladder Position = 9th, 2 wins from 5 matches.

Nothing.

---------------------

What a truly alarming stat. So despite playing in finals for the last 2 seasons, and winning 10+ games in a season for the past 3 seasons, we've only won 1 solitary game that we've trailed in at half time. And that game was a game where we led for most of the first half anyway, and were unlucky to be behind in at half time.

In the 2 seasons prior to this though, despite in an overall sense winning far less games, we won 6 matches from being behind at half time, and there was a 7th match in there against Port in 2010 that we nearly won from a nigh impossible position to win from.

What this tells me, clearly, is that as we have "improved", we have lost the ability to fight out games when things are not going our way. Our players play like spoilt prima-donnas that will only run and tackle and chase when things are absolutely perfect and when it suits their agenda.

Now, how is this inevitably Hardwick's fault? It's Hardwick's fault because he doesn't put enough accountability on these players to "fight and fight and win", like our song says. He's not a horrible coach technically speaking, but he simply seems incapable of getting this list to fight when the chips are down.

We can reverse form over the course of a season, but even with that 9 match winning streak, we never trailed at half time in any of those wins.

So essentially, opposition teams have learned that, if they stop us early, and we don't get going in the 1st half, we don't have the passion, desire, or ability to actually "will" ourselves to tough victories.

Melbourne knew it, Western Bulldogs knew it, and Geelong knew it. Everybody knows it, and yet, we either won't, or can't, actually do anything to fix it.

We only win when we're in-front at half time, so if we're trailing at half time, it's safe to turn off the telly, because you already know the result.

It is pathetic, it is insipid, and it is an infectious, insidious disease that has spread through Hardwick, his coaching team, and every single RFC listed player currently at the club.

Hardwick is a good-spirited bloke, and he wants to see us succeed. But he has clearly hit the wall here, and he is not capable of taking us any further, or overcoming this hurdle. He simply doesn't have what it takes to "will" us to victory.

Yep exactly. I made a thread about this earlier this year. Even top 4 teams trail at half time against the lesser teams. The difference is, they get the job done whereas we just fold. The team could be a wooden spooner and we would still lose. Tells me there is a serious issue with mental weakness. They will not go near top 4 let alone a premiership if this is not rectified

 

[Mr Magic]

Yep exactly. I made a thread about this earlier this year. Even top 4 teams trail at half time against the lesser teams. The difference is, they get the job done whereas we just fold. The team could be a wooden spooner and we would still lose. Tells me there is a serious issue with mental weakness. They will not go near top 4 let alone a premiership if this is not rectified

Well atm I would rather Richmond's list and direction than North.

Looks like North although possibly top 4 are going to follow Geelong in the next few years for sure!

 

[Lsta062]

Well atm I would rather Richmond's list and direction than North.

Looks like North although possibly top 4 are going to follow Geelong in the next few years for sure!

Exactly, and I don't want to end up in the position that North are in right now. North is following Geelong, whereas we are following North atm

 

[TigerImposter]

We are following Richmond from circa 1983 onwards
Sink to mid table to sink again
The inverted parabola effect all over

 

[tigs2010]

So did i and i tipped against us because i know we're the cat's bitches...

Cats were paying $2.20 which is ludicrous.

 

[Craze]

Well atm I would rather Richmond's list and direction than North.

Looks like North although possibly top 4 are going to follow Geelong in the next few years for sure!

Where is Geelong going? Not quite sure what you're getting at here. When Geelong bottom out it's 10th at worst. Their list is regenerating (much like Collingwood, they've made some hard calls), and I fully expect them to rebound right past us like Port, the Dogs, Pies, etc. Wouldn't be too critical of North either. The Geelong Scott was on SEN Friday night and spoke really well about what they're doing at Geelong.

Sorry if I've misunderstood your post.