Kurt's Kicking Konundrum

[King Elvis]

It depends on a number of factors and there isn't just one figure.

Certainly 30m out with little to no angle I'd expect an AFL footballer to be nailing it at least 80% of the time, even that feels a little low.

Doesn't take into account the freakish ones he does get, when they're a 0% chance.


It's not unreasonable to ask for a realistic expectation of his scoring conversions - it's an average percentage, so it takes into account the freakish and the simple.

60%?
70%?
80%?


Overall, what's reasonable?

What you're missing is when and from where he misses them. That's what I'm interested in, not a fluffed up conversion statistic.

Indulge me then.

Or if it turns out he has a decent conversion ratio, is the argument going to be that he misses the easy ones but nails the hard ones, so the ratio is irrelevant?

Kurt's goal kicking is an issue, I'm not disputing that, but let's not ignore all of the great work he does because he missed a couple of easy ones - which everybody does from time to time.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Is that the bloke whos kicked 6.6?

Your obsession with conversion rates shows your complete ignorance on the topic.

 

[Team DJ]

Doesn't take into account the freakish ones he does get, when they're a 0% chance.


It's not unreasonable to ask for a realistic expectation of his scoring conversions - it's an average percentage, so it takes into account the freakish and the simple.

60%?
70%?
80%?


Overall, what's reasonable?



Indulge me then.

Or if it turns out he has a decent conversion ratio, is the argument going to be that he misses the easy ones but nails the hard ones, so the ratio is irrelevant?

Kurt's goal kicking is an issue, I'm not disputing that, but let's not ignore all of the great work he does because he missed a couple of easy ones - which everybody does from time to time.

Set Shot < 40m out, <45 degree angle = +75%
Set Shot 40-50m Out, <45 degree angle = 60%

Set Shot >45 degree angle 40-50%


I have no issue with his kick for goal (most of the time) on the run so his current percentages are fine. Added to that he is a key marking forwad so any he can get in those situations are a bonus.

An overall average i would hope to be 65% at a minimum

 

[afc1991]

Your obsession with conversion rates shows your complete ignorance on the topic.

So which is it?

"A forward is only as good as his finishing, blah blah blah, the end."

Finishing is the ability to score goals rather than points last time I checked. The players you rate finish as the well as the ones you condemn. Its there in black and white. It would be good if you had something to back up your opinions.

 

[Niximus]

Doesn't take into account the freakish ones he does get, when they're a 0% chance.


It's not unreasonable to ask for a realistic expectation of his scoring conversions - it's an average percentage, so it takes into account the freakish and the simple.

60%?
70%?
80%?


Overall, what's reasonable?

Again, it depends on where he is taking them from.

If he has 90% of his shots from set shots they you'd want him to hit a higher % than if 90% of his shots were snaps.

An overall % just doesn't consider all the factors.

He must hit the gimmes!

 

[Niximus]

Kurt's goal kicking is an issue, I'm not disputing that, but let's not ignore all of the great work he does because he missed a couple of easy ones - which everybody does from time to time.

But he misses them more than 'from time to time' doesn't he?

 

[Niximus]

So which is it?

"A forward is only as good as his finishing, blah blah blah, the end."

Finishing is the ability to score goals rather than points last time I checked. The players you rate finish as the well as the ones you condemn. Its there in black and white. It would be good if you had something to back up your opinions.

Think of it this way.

If a forward was able to partially intercept a kick-in 5 times per game and every time was immediately tackled by 2 players but managed to get a kick out from nowhere and 1 of the 5 went through for a goal, you'd be happy.

If that same player instead took 5 marks in the goal square and kicked 1/5 you'd be pissed!

 

[SugarShane]

Just on Callinan, is he naturally right or left footed? I'm pretty sure he's a righty but i'm sure more than half of his goals have been off the left. Regardless, he has sublime skills on either leg.

 

[Slippery Pete]

He's a right footer, but you've just paid him the ultimate compliment for a footballer.

 

[Heafy83]

He is a crumber often kicking snap shots under pressure.
You'd back him 4/5 from a set shot.

I'm a huge centrals fan and this isn't entirely true. He is better on the run or snapping a goal than he is on a set shot. I would say 3/5 is more an accurate number and prob 2/5 if its further than 40m out.

 

[Heafy83]

He's a right footer, but you've just paid him the ultimate compliment for a footballer.

Yes he is no Darren Jarman but is probably the best user of the ball on both sides in our team.

 

[King Elvis]

Again, it depends on where he is taking them from.

If he has 90% of his shots from set shots they you'd want him to hit a higher % than if 90% of his shots were snaps.

An overall % just doesn't consider all the factors.

He must hit the gimmes!

An averages takes into account all of the factors, that's why it's an average

Over a full season, the bad misses and the freakish goals will even out to give us an average kicking conversion percentage, which will be representative of his ability to kick goals - what is a reasonable expectation for this percentage to be?

It's a pretty simple question, I'm not sure why you refuse to answer it?

But he misses them more than 'from time to time' doesn't he?

He misses more than I'd like, sure, but you can't condemn him for that in isolation.

I haven't checked what the average conversion ratio for a key forward is, and I haven't checked what Kurt is converting at either, so I can't answer one way or another.

I was planning to go home tonight and find out what those stats are, but I was hoping people would tell us what % they expect Tippett to convert at before I do

 

[Niximus]

An averages takes into account all of the factors, that's why it's an average

Over a full season, the bad misses and the freakish goals will even out to give us an average kicking conversion percentage, which will be representative of his ability to kick goals - what is a reasonable expectation for this percentage to be?

It's a pretty simple question, I'm not sure why you refuse to answer it?

What % of the shots are easy.

What % are difficult.

If he is having 90% easy shots and 10% difficult then you'd want a higher overall % than if he had 90% difficult shots and 10% easy.

I don't see how you keep failing to get this?

Average =/= taking into account all factors. If Ports average crowd was 30k and our average crowd was 30k, we haven't both performed equally have we?

He misses more than I'd like, sure, but you can't condemn him for that in isolation.

I haven't checked what the average conversion ratio for a key forward is, and I haven't checked what Kurt is converting at either, so I can't answer one way or another.

I was planning to go home tonight and find out what those stats are, but I was hoping people would tell us what % they expect Tippett to convert at before I do

I expect him to convert 80-90% of the easy shots.

I expect him to hit 60-65% on a slight angle >50m

I expect him to hit <20% when pushed into the deep pocket by the boundary.

Can you not see how these don't add up to a simple overall % rate?

 

[King Elvis]

Average =/= taking into account all factors. If Ports average crowd was 30k and our average crowd was 30k, we haven't both performed equally have we?

WTF?

If we both averaged 30,000 to a game a year, then yes, we have performed relatively equally.

I'm not asking you to commit to a number and gamble your life on it.

 

[Team DJ]

An averages takes into account all of the factors, that's why it's an average

Over a full season, the bad misses and the freakish goals will even out to give us an average kicking conversion percentage, which will be representative of his ability to kick goals - what is a reasonable expectation for this percentage to be?

It's a pretty simple question, I'm not sure why you refuse to answer it?



He misses more than I'd like, sure, but you can't condemn him for that in isolation.

I haven't checked what the average conversion ratio for a key forward is, and I haven't checked what Kurt is converting at either, so I can't answer one way or another.

I was planning to go home tonight and find out what those stats are, but I was hoping people would tell us what % they expect Tippett to convert at before I do

I did answer it.

Set Shot < 40m out, <45 degree angle = +75%
Set Shot 40-50m Out, <45 degree angle = 60%

Set Shot >45 degree angle 40-50%


I have no issue with his kick for goal (most of the time) on the run so his current percentages are fine. Added to that he is a key marking forwad so any he can get in those situations are a bonus.

An overall average i would hope to be 65% at a minimum

 

[Niximus]

WTF?

If we both averaged 30,000 to a game a year, then yes, we have performed relatively equally.

I'm not asking you to commit to a number and gamble your life on it.

Well no, we didn't because it is ignoring the important factor that we have a higher supporter base and should therefore average higher crowds if we're performing equally.

A simple overall % doesn't give the full picture. Missing sitters saps team morale and breaks momentum. Missing a very easy shot isn't counteracted by scoring a relatively difficult shot.

 

[King Elvis]

I'd say an overall conversion rate of 60% is a pass mark, 70% is very good and 80% is great/elite.

Reasonable?

As for the momentum thing, you're spot on, but so does Vince missing a sitter, so does VB doing a hospital hand pass, so does Reilly kicking across goal to disadvantage, so does a poor kick out from defense.

No player is perfect - Tippett needs to improve his accuracy, no question at all; but I think people should focus a little more on the huge amount of positive things he's doing, and a little less on the negative.

 

[Niximus]

I'd say an overall conversion rate of 60% is a pass mark, 70% is very good and 80% is great/elite.

Reasonable?

As I have been saying, it isn't that easy, it is relative.

If by some chance every time he got the ball he got a 50m and had all of his shots from right on the goal line then I would think that only hitting 8/10 would be pretty average.

Even if he snagged two highly unlikely goals from the boundary, you wouldn't excuse missing 20% of shots from point blank.

Likewise, the amount of unlikely shots he gets is irrelevant to how he goes with the simple shots. At AFL level missing as many gimmes as he does is unacceptable.

 

[Niximus]

As for the momentum thing, you're spot on, but so does Vince missing a sitter, so does VB doing a hospital hand pass, so does Reilly kicking across goal to disadvantage, so does a poor kick out from defense.

Exactly right, and I would expect them to be judged on that too.

If they kick across goal and give up a goal, simply contributing to another goal later on doesn't excuse the first brain fart.

 

[Slippery Pete]

The difference is, you'd normally back Vince. He misses, Tex misses, you know it's an abberation.

You wouldn't back Kurt with your lunch money.

 

[afc1991]

The difference is, you'd normally back Vince. He misses, Tex misses, you know it's an abberation.

You wouldn't back Kurt with your lunch money.

Thats the annoying thing, youre flat out wrong. Look it up.

Tex is on par with tippett. They kick at 60%. Vince has kicked 1.5 this year. Spud. But play on, petes pets are winners.

 

[Paladin]

The difference is, you'd normally back Vince. He misses, Tex misses, you know it's an abberation.

You wouldn't back Kurt with your lunch money.

I love Tex but his kicking has been an abberation for a while now. Misses just as many easy ones as Kurt.

 

[King Elvis]

Walker probably gets more in harder positions, to be fair. Whether that's his fault or not is a other argument

 

[BACCS]

This is from the man himself off his blog:

One of the routines that has received a huge amount of attention is my ‘goal kicking’ routine. This is one facet of the game that can be really broken down and practiced in isolation effectively as it happens under controlled circumstances in a game. I practice the intricacies of this routine over and over again so that when the pressure is high on game day I am able to execute my routine fluently and with success. For instance I take 16 steps back from where I want to kick the ball, pick a spot behind the goals to aim at, taking into consideration the conditions, control my breathing, concentrate on staying strong through my core and kick the ball on an out breath through the goals!

He really is trying hard to improve, and I think it certainly has since he first arrived. It was more the moments at which he missed goals on the weekend, because 3.3 isn't the worst return. If he can get that to 4.2 in more games than not, I think everyone would be pretty happy. It just sucks that he can't nail those 30m set shots atm, because otherwise he is seriously good nick.

 

[King Elvis]

He will be fine, the guy is a competitive beast, he will sort it out.