Ladder Predictor

[witsend]

If the following events occur, my Predictor shows Geelong on top of the ladder by percentage, over Hawthorn, with Sydney 3rd and Freo 4th.
Geelong beats Sydney at Simonds-60/40 chance imo
Sydney beats Hawthorn in Sydney-60/40 chance again
Those teams above win all other games apart from those listed above.
Not outlandish...
The percentage could be extraordinarily important. We would neet to beat Brisbane in Rd 23 by about 40+ if Sydney beat Hawks in a tight one.
Hawthorn actually have the tough run home, having to play North, Collingwood, Sydney in the last 3 Rds, followed by a 1st final against Sydney. We definitely have the better journey.

 

[LongBomb]

West Coast in Perth won't be an easy game. Would not be surprised if we dropped that one.

 

[Hoffy95]

West Coast have shut up shop for the year. We are playing them at a very good time IMO.

 

[dazbroncos]

Questionable J Brown for brisbane will help us too....

And i'll take all the help we can get right now...

Go Catters

 

[kicksome]

I have us finishing 3rd and playing freo in the first week of finals. eeeek

 

[catstorm]

I have us finishing 3rd and playing freo in the first week of finals. eeeek

Thats what i get as well, it would be just so much easier if we win out and get that top 2 spot and play Freo or Sydney in Melbourne

 

[fpm84]

I'm confident we won't see another flat performance in the H&A. Top two and home finals are in our control - simply, if we win all four games we can't finish lower than second.

The players know there's no room for error. We're simply better than Port Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane - and we will treat the Sydney game like it's a final to take our record v top four teams to 5-0.

 

[catstorm]

I'm confident we won't see another flat performance in the H&A. Top two and home finals are in our control - simply, if we win all four games we can't finish lower than second.

The players know there's no room for error. We're simply better than Port Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane - and we will treat the Sydney game like it's a final to take our record v top four teams to 5-0.

I just dont know where we are at, are we a pretender or a contender.

I see us lose to teams like Brisbane and Adelaide ( not so much Norths as i really rate them) and cant reconcile it with a team that flat out smashed Freo and can comfortably handle Sydney and Hawthorn, this years Geelong team is an enigma.

 

[Jon Douglas]

Really hard to know as there have been really good signs and some really bad signs in the last 5-6 games.

The good news is we have 3 of the last 4 games at home - so we are a good chance to win those 3.

As stated good time to play WC at home. Wont be easy but not as hard as per usual.

If we win the last 4 games - and that is say 60 % chance we will avoid playing interstate - our first priority I would think.

Sydney may or may not beat Hawks - but Freo will win its last 4 games.

Its in our own hands - and if we play well we will finish second or better.

The other good news is Pods and Bundy back. That has to be a good thing.

Chappy maybe back soon.

I have no idea how things will work out but if we lose another game we will be playing interstate.

 

[witsend]

I have us finishing 3rd and playing freo in the first week of finals. eeeek

Which game do you have us losing? Sydney seems the obvious danger game, but I feel our home advantage is simply too strong in such a crucial game.

 

[James1970]

I have us finishing 3rd and playing freo in the first week of finals. eeeek

I've taken us to get all four, but only end up on top if we can thump the Lions by at least 30 points - but we still play Freo first week!

 

[FredLeDeux]

Does anyone have the stats for which team wins the most - home state or away state - in finals played between teams which finished the H&A season on equal points?
And allowing also for the difference between playing in your home state (ie us) and at your home ground (everyone else).

In other words, is there any proof that home state finals are an advantage?

 

[bigfarter]

No margin for error now. This is where that Brisbane game really stings. I desperately don't want to play Freo at Patersons but I don't know if playing interstate is a big issue as it pertains to Sydney. They'll be the same at the 'G or ANZ Stadium. An away Prelim (especially at Patersons) would be disastrous, if we make it that far.

 

[barmy44]

In other words, is there any proof that home state finals are an advantage?

it comes down to a mix of the impossible to quantify 'home ground advantage', and the fact that teams playing at home are the 'better team' due to finishing higher on the ladder.

 

[FredLeDeux]

it comes down to a mix of the impossible to quantify 'home ground advantage', and the fact that teams playing at home are the 'better team' due to finishing higher on the ladder.

Which is why I limited it to all things being roughly equal, ie teams which finished equal on points.

 

[barmy44]

Which is why I limited it to all things being roughly equal, ie teams which finished equal on points.

right you are... ive been about as helpful as hamish macintosh.

carry on.

 

[candiehappy]

I'm just worried about this week

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Port, Sydney or Brisbane will not beat us.

The Eagles match is the only game I'm not confident of winning.

Defeat the Eagles and we'll finish 1st or 2nd.

 

[candiehappy]

Port, Sydney or Brisbane will not beat us.

The Eagles match is the only game I'm not confident of winning.

Defeat the Eagles and we'll finish 1st or 2nd.

I shouldn't say this, because I know that it is an inane statement of the obvious - BUT ... "if" we hadn't dropped the brissy game .......

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I shouldn't say this, because I know that it is an inane statement of the obvious - BUT ... "if" we hadn't dropped the brissy game .......

Kardinia Park is a different kettle of fish.

 

[goyoucatters]

I just dont know where we are at, are we a pretender or a contender.

I see us lose to teams like Brisbane and Adelaide ( not so much Norths as i really rate them) and cant reconcile it with a team that flat out smashed Freo and can comfortably handle Sydney and Hawthorn, this years Geelong team is a riddle, wrapped up in a mystery, encapsulated in an enigma.

Amended, in the interests of full disclosure.

And for those of us who've been following the hoops for more than the last six years, this latest model's terrifying uncertainty is also eerily familiar...

 

[bigfarter]

And for those of us who've been following the hoops for more than the last six years, this latest model's terrifying uncertainty is also eerily familiar...

Too right. I've feared saying it due to inviting the cruel fates of the past but this year's results have had a little element of "the type of game we usually lose" about it. I desperately don't want to see our club go back to that kind of consistent inconsistency. Loathe as I am to praise Fremantle, I envy their professionalism this year. Have a look at their draw over the next four weeks. Geelong may be a chance to unexpectedly drop one of those games but Freo will just put their head down and get it done.

 

[msamosco]

My predictor

1. Sydney
2. Freo
3. Hawthorn
4. Geelong

with the lose to WestCoast, the next few weeks will decide where will we finish? I have a faith to this club but what we've seen for the past few weeks that we are losing to the side outside top 8 is not a good sign, I just think that we aren't good enough to become premiers this year.

 

[Old_Man_James]

Does anyone have the stats for which team wins the most - home state or away state - in finals played between teams which finished the H&A season on equal points?
And allowing also for the difference between playing in your home state (ie us) and at your home ground (everyone else).

In other words, is there any proof that home state finals are an advantage?

Just took a quick glance since year 2000 for EF and QF (i think thats when last chance of finals system was?) , Home State Vs Interstate when on Equal points, Home State 6 wins to 1.

Including when a team is within 2 points (which would be the case with freo having a draw this year). Home state wins 10 to 1

The 1 against was Sydney defeating StKilda, 2011.

 

[romeoh]

Hawks 72 (lose to Sydney)*
Geelong 72 (win all 4)
Swans 70 (lose to Geelong)
Freo 70 (win all 4)

*If, as is possible, even likely, Hawks lose to North as well, they finish 4th)