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Laidley's Optimism

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understudy said:
Without doubt mathematically speaking you are definitely a very low chance of winning the lotto.

Mathematically its impossible to say with any certainty who will win the game of football but Laidely is correct in saying it is a two hourse race and as such 50:50.

The comparison made above is nonsensical.
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I agree the lottery remark is taking it to an extreme (and probably not the best way example for him to use).

What if we were talking a foot race between Maurice Green and Billy Brownless over 100 metres? It's a 2 'horse' race but hardly 50/50. I'm not saying that there's that much difference between Geelong & the Roos but it is oversimplifying things by saying 50/50 just because there's two teams involved.
 
Waverley73 said:
What if we were talking a foot race between Maurice Green and Billy Brownless over 100 metres? It's a 2 'horse' race but hardly 50/50. I'm not saying that there's that much difference between Geelong & the Roos but it is oversimplifying things by saying 50/50 just because there's two teams involved.
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Such assesments are subjective, I believe the bookies have North a 21 per cent chance and Geelong a 79 per cent chance.

Typically these assesments are for betting markets and are based on whats happened in the past and what people consider to be the most likely outcome.

Obviously Green and Brownless both have to run 100 metres if Green does his hammy any previous form or expectations are probably out the window and Brownless is back in the race.

I believe Laidely's observation that both teams start on 0 points and that its a 50/50 contest has merit on the basis that the futures unpredictable and we cant possibly know how Sunday will pan out.
 
understudy said:
Such assesments are subjective, I believe the bookies have North a 21 per cent chance and Geelong a 79 per cent chance.

Typically these assesments are for betting markets and are based on whats happened in the past and what people consider to be the most likely outcome.

Obviously Green and Brownless both have to run 100 metres if Green does his hammy any previous form or expectations are probably out the window and Brownless is back in the race.

I believe Laidely's observation that both teams start on 0 points and that its a 50/50 contest has merit becuase the futures unpredictable and we cant possibly know how Sunday will pan out.
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Yeah, of course no one can predict whats going to happen on the day, but would you honestly say before the race is run that Brownless is a 50/50 to win that race? They both start at the starting line and the distance covered is the same.
 
Waverley73 said:
Yeah, of course no one can predict whats going to happen on the day, but would you honestly say before the race is run that Brownless is a 50/50 to win that race? They both start at the starting line and the distance covered is the same.
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Greens got a history of choking sorry pulling hammies I mean !
 

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understudy said:
Greens got a history of choking sorry pulling hammies I mean !
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So if you were placing bets on that race and saw that Billy 'froffies' Brownless was at $4.00 you'd put your hard earned on him to win? I reckon Greene could pull both hammies and break both ankles and he'd still beat Billy to the line.
 
The Teflon Dean said:
We can roll Geelong, no worries about that, and a lot of the skylarking from the supposedly oh so confident Geelong fans reeks of insecurity.

I'd be more concerned if we were playing Sydney or Adelaide.

We have the ability to beat all the others.
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Funny thing is, I'd be more concerned if we were playing Hawhtorn, Collingwood, Port, WC,.... Sydney or Adelaide. Pretty confident we can take care of Norht tho. But no doubt I'm just insecure... or just another arrogant Geelong supporter.
 
daddy_4_eyes said:
He's spot on. The cats have 4 more wins than the Roos, but what advantage to they have? Neutral venue, same thing at stake in terms of win/loss, etc.
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That exactly right. Despite Geelong finishing 1st, by facing a vic team first up they have received no real advantage out of it what so ever.

There's a few geelong fans being a bit precious on this thread thinking Laidley is claiming favouritism, which he isn't at all.

That heavy chain of favourtism/expectation is laying quite heavily on geelongs shoulders for this game.
 
The Zebra said:
Well perhaps the fact that north were not favorites in 17 of their 22 games, yet won 14 - it has made him question his maths teacher.

He has said nothing wrong. Not cocky, said he has huge respect, just said what everyone knows - home and away means nothing now, it all starts again.
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Exactly. Funnily enough, it's what most sane Geelong supporters have been saying for some time. Both sides have to prove themselves.
 

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Waverley73 said:
His point was that if there are only two possible outcomes (eg. you win the lottery, you don't win the lottery) it doesn't mean that by default that each outcome is 50% chance of happening.

For Laidley to say that they've got a 50% chance of winning because there's two teams (and therefore two possible outcomes) is a bit of oversimplification. Maybe given the Roos fan base thats not such a bad thing...:p
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Comparing a game of football to lottery is moronic, judging from his post history, right up his alley as to his intellectual level.
 
Waverley73 said:
If you were single and had a chance to choose out of Barb (Carlton Barb from the footy show) and Jennifer Hawkins are you saying Barb has a 50/50 chance of being picked by you? There's only two of them mate so that must be the case....
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Are you reading these out of "The Book of Shit Analogies?"
 

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The Teflon Dean said:
We can roll Geelong, no worries about that, and a lot of the skylarking from the supposedly oh so confident Geelong fans reeks of insecurity.

I'd be more concerned if we were playing Sydney or Adelaide.

We have the ability to beat all the others.
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Bit cocky don't you think. So you'll cream us and and all the other sides in the 8 excluding Sydney and Adelaide(including Port and WC who finished above you in case you didn't notice). But im just another arrogant Geelong supporter. To all the Kangaroos supporters out their who aren't w@nkers like this guy, good luck on the weekend.
 
Blah blah blah, sick of all this trash talk by both sides, wish the dam game would start now to shut everyone up. Good luck Roos, go Cats, may the best team win. Now close the dam thread and the 856 other ones...:thumbsu:
 
hbk_aus said:
Blah blah blah, sick of all this trash talk by both sides, wish the dam game would start now to shut everyone up. Good luck Roos, go Cats, may the best team win. Now close the dam thread and the 856 other ones...:thumbsu:
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Could not agree more.
 
Catteract said:
So why don't the bookmakers agree and have them at even odds. I have a 50% chance of winning Tattslotto also. I either win or I don't win!

Back to the classroom Dean.
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This was more about statistics and probability rather than football form.

However Dean may be right in saying the the playing field may be equal but I don't believe the players are....anyway we will know in 55 hours!
 
GAPH said:
Bit cocky don't you think. So you'll cream us and and all the other sides in the 8 excluding Sydney and Adelaide(including Port and WC who finished above you in case you didn't notice). But im just another arrogant Geelong supporter. To all the Kangaroos supporters out their who aren't w@nkers like this guy, good luck on the weekend.
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Talk about quoting out of context!:rolleyes:

I said we can "roll" you. Roll means we can beat you, just as we have already done this year.

Pardon me for having an opinion and not falling on my knees in awe of the GFC.:rolleyes::thumbsd:
 
Catteract said:
So why don't the bookmakers agree and have them at even odds. I have a 50% chance of winning Tattslotto also. I either win or I don't win!

Back to the classroom Dean.
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Yeah.... Dean is the one that needs to go back to class.......:rolleyes:
 

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