Leppa's third year.

[lukiuslion]

This for me is a very interesting topic of conversation and something I would like to litmus test amongst the intelligent and insightful fans of Big footy (lols). I know some will say 'It's hypothetical lets worry about the now", But I think gaining a general understanding, wouldn't hurt.

What is expected of Leppa as our coach, in his third year?

If we are in the same position as we are now, this time next year, I couldn't think of coach in the history of the AFL (regardless of re-build and injuries) who would have performed so poorly, in almost every way (statistically) in his first three years, and still have kept his job.

Now let me say this - I like Leppa as coach, I think he is the right man. I am not preparing to call for his head now, I am undecided as to how we should proceed if things don't dramatically improve next year. He has the backing of Leigh and Rocky who have both stated several times "He is the right man", however Leigh himself said in relation to Voss, 'excuses and reasons stop mattering, and your numbers will eventually get you in the end".

So is the club determined to keep him? Leppa himself mentioned a 'long term' plan they had agreed upon. Are we as fans willing to risk giving him 4-5 years (another 3 year contract at the end of next year), if his third year shows no improvement? How long is a long term plan because ATM, if we are to be frank, there has been no sustained, overall, improvement so far - at all.

If half way through next year we are in the same position - do we??..

- Start looking for another coach, 3 years is enough by any measure
- Stick it out, the kids are coming along, just slowely, it was always going to be a long journey.

What are peoples expectations for the side and our coach next year?

 

[SizeMatters]

I'm not sure 3 years is enough considering our list demographics. Would like to see some improvement in key areas though such as contested possessions, clearances and less injuries would be a good start and I think will be some KPIs the board will have set out for him. I found it odd that Leppa refused to sign a contract extension during pre-season which doesn't instil a lot of confidence in his players... does he want to be here long term?

 

[Lace Out]

Would like to stick with him until the end of 2017.

Might be time for a change if we don't play a final in that year.

 

[Kevvo]

I'm not sure 3 years is enough considering our list demographics. Would like to see some improvement in key areas though such as contested possessions, clearances and less injuries would be a good start and I think will be some KPIs the board will have set out for him. I found it odd that Leppa refused to sign a contract extension during pre-season which doesn't instil a lot of confidence in his players... does he want to be here long term?

I agree with the first point here and I think those are a pretty good set of measures.

On the contract issue, I'm not sure about that. I think Leppa may sincerely have believed that this would be a tough year again (IIRC we already had a bunch of injuries) and would rather negotiate a new contract with the team on the improve when he has a bit more currency. I think that's fair enough, and neither he nor the club made a big song and dance about the deferral so at this point I'm not worried. He's also gone public a few times and said he wants to be the long term coach, so I guess we don't have a reason to doubt him at this point.

As for my response to the OP, I've been pretty open that I drink the Leppa Kool-Aid, but I think either way I'd probably be arguing that we need to stick with him for a while unless next year is especially dire. We've had to play an especially young team for two years running, and have had a really poor trot with injury. At some point in the next couple of years, we won't have many 30+ year olds on the way out and our list should naturally stabilize a bit. At a similar point, we should have some depth in players with 30+ or even 50+ games not making the first 22. I think it's really important that we have a bit of continuity into and through that stretch with the coaching. I've seen enough positive patches in the way we play to think that we will naturally improve with experience if nothing else, and I get the feeling our coaching panel aren't so dogmatic that they won't reflect and improve.

 

[POBT]

A lot of crystal ball work required here but....

If we are in the same place on the ladder this time next year then Leppa will not survive. At some point, performance matters and clubs can't afford to be infinitely patient.

The question is how much performance improvement is required to justify him having his contract extended. I really believe in this list when fully fit so, all things being equal, I'd want to see something approaching a 50% win record half way through next year.

 

[jackess]

Leppa wanted to be in the middle 6 teams this year. We should be in the middle 6 next year with some decent recruiting. Top 8 in 2017.

 

[Viceregal]

A lot of crystal ball work required here but....

If we are in the same place on the ladder this time next year then Leppa will not survive. At some point, performance matters and clubs can't afford to be infinitely patient.

The question is how much performance improvement is required to justify him having his contract extended. I really believe in this list when fully fit so, all things being equal, I'd want to see something approaching a 50% win record half way through next year.

Of course if we have a 25 strong injury list filled with things we couldn't have done anything about or some bomber (small 'b') takes out the team bus etc we would have to revisit our expectations ...

... but with a reasonable amount of health we know this list can do better and we have seen signs of what they can do when they gel ... but if they are no fitter and no more skilled etc and will be good to get a full pre-season into our young guys and imports

With KPP we look for 'signs' ... if we look at the team we can see the same ...

 

[POBT]

Of course if we have a 25 strong injury list filled with things we couldn't have done anything about or some bomber (small 'b') takes out the team bus etc we would have to revisit our expectations ...

I'm not sure Leppa will be given that luxury. It might not be fair but I think the reality is that a 3rd consecutive finish at the bottom of the ladder will probably end his senior career with us, irrespective of circumstances.

 

[HowYouDoin]

If we finish above 10th or higher next year, then leppa should be safe, but if we have another year like this, then unfortunately he is gone. Problem is, whoever we replace him with will probably do just as bad anyway. I'm pretty sure we're doomed to be a bottom feeding club forever

 

[Ruse]

He's gotta go, he's done nothing in his first 2 years.

 

[Viceregal]

I'm not sure Leppa will be given that luxury. It might not be fair but I think the reality is that a 3rd consecutive finish at the bottom of the ladder will probably end his senior career with us, irrespective of circumstances.

Possibly more of a numpty question but if the team bus ran over a cliff or something and all of the senior players and most of the coaching staff were taken out ... what would the AFL do?

Re bottom of the ladder - as in bottom four finish or out of the eight or ... ?

 

[Ironmonger]

I'm not sure Leppa will be given that luxury. It might not be fair but I think the reality is that a 3rd consecutive finish at the bottom of the ladder will probably end his senior career with us, irrespective of circumstances.

Agreed. It's important to remember that fairness isn't a big consideration here. If we can't be confident after three years that Leppitsch has the capability to be a head coach at this level then it would be irresponsible to give him another two or three years.

There are always reasons why a club might be less successful than they should be. Those are the factors the coach has to deal with, not excuses.

 

[Milux]

Id be super happy if next season we improved our %. If we can improve it to the 80-85% mark then we should be winning a few more games and our structures are working better. A little unrealistic to expect top 8 but it would be nice.

 

[jackess]

The club's pretty committed to Leppa's long term plan. As long as the playing group is still following him he'll be fine.

 

[Eons]

I think with the cards he's been dealt he's been doing well. The silver lining to all our injuries this year is we keep getting more games into the kids which is going to be a massive help in the future. Most kids in their 3rd year would be getting to the 20 game mark, ours will be pushing 50.

Really excited to see who we can land at the end of the year, if we can get Dixon and and a key defender and remain fairly injury free, we will be in that 8-12 range on the ladder and push for finals in 2017.

Interesting to see what he does with Close next year, as others have mentioned, I wouldn't mind seeing him trialed in the back line. Freeman is a natural forward, hopefully Dixon and McStay would be a pretty potent forward line moving forward. Like to see Bourke stay forward too, needs to improve his fitness but he looks like he'll be a fairly handy option in years to come.

 

[Kevvo]

Agreed. It's important to remember that fairness isn't a big consideration here. If we can't be confident after three years that Leppitsch has the capability to be a head coach at this level then it would be irresponsible to give him another two or three years.

There are always reasons why a club might be less successful than they should be. Those are the factors the coach has to deal with, not excuses.

I think that is reasonable, but equally I think Swann and Lethal are pretty publicly committed to Leppa being up to it.

Results have to be a critical KPI, but we're in a market where just retaining players for long enough to improve is a big challenge. At the very least, Leppa seems to have made improvements on the latter, and I think that would be a non-negligible factor in his prospects of staying on. I agree that, for example, the wooden spoon two years in a row would probably be too much, but I suspect he'll survive even if we're in the 12-14 region next year.

 

[knaf]

Not having any information from inside the club I can only judge Leppa from what I have seen on the box and from results.

I admire the way Leppa has represented the club from day one and given the injury run we have had I think he has handled the losses pretty well. Players speak well of him and are prepared to shoulder the responsibility for losses (at least in the media).

I cant say I am happy with the results. Even with my limited understanding of concepts like "game plan" I have seen instances where Leppas instructions seem to have lead to worse performances. On the other hand I have seen some good moves, good structures and development in certain players. I acknowledge that injuries have effected results this year. However it is impossible to know whether or not a coaching panel of Malthouse, Matthews and Norm Smith would have got better results with the team on the field this year. Personally I would give Leppa the benefit of the doubt and extend now to the end of 2017.

Whether or not the club will do this is I suppose dependent on how the club sees Leppa's performance in developing the group and the club administrations courage in standing up to calls for the quick and easy solution of sacking the coach if result dont meet supporters expectations regardless of how realistic they may be.

The "sack the coach" push seldom takes into account the potential to get a better coach. I cant see us attracting a first rate coach at the end of 2016 if Leppa is seen to be scape-goated by the club.

At the end of 2017 if we are still in the mire we will need a new coach.

 

[lukiuslion]

I think that is reasonable, but equally I think Swann and Lethal are pretty publicly committed to Leppa being up to it.

Results have to be a critical KPI, but we're in a market where just retaining players for long enough to improve is a big challenge. At the very least, Leppa seems to have made improvements on the latter, and I think that would be a non-negligible factor in his prospects of staying on. I agree that, for example, the wooden spoon two years in a row would probably be too much, but I suspect he'll survive even if we're in the 12-14 region next year.

This is exactly where I am at. I think bottom 4 finish, continued floggings and being bottom 4 in almost all key statistical indicators (as we are now) will have the jungle drums beating, and it will lead to a review - and a one year extension type scenario.

A complete disaster, say winless first 6-7 games again, hellish percentage, good players not playing well - will lead to a mid season sacking.

However I think anything over 8 wins, with a decent percentage, will see him secure another 3 year contract, given where he has come from and the sort of program he has inherited, it doesn't have to be a finals appearance.

with any three of these scenarios, he needs to start talking in terms of 'We should be improving' each week and not there 'We know where we are at', "that's what we get with young teams' etc etc.. I think his time in that zone HAS to be be over in his third year.

I am hoping and think, that we will improve next year. However, if we are at the same stage next year, as we are now, we the fans and the footballing world with be getting restless.

It's an interesting topic, not so much for predicting what might happen, but more, what we expect coming into his third year.

 

[Fatcat08]

I'd say bare minimum would be a move out of the bottom third of the table, even if we had some bad injuries. At the end of the day AFL is a results orientated industry and if you're not getting improved results over a period of time you're going to find it hard to keep your job. Harsh but thats reality of top line sport.

 

[Slax]

This year has been really hard to judge and that isn't going to change much for another couple of weeks. The injuries we've had has meant that it has been impossible to even get anywhere near our best 18 on the field, this will improve of the next few weeks though (injury god's willing). What I'd want to see once we get out best midfield back on the park is for us to start doing a hell of a lot better at the stoppages, our clearance work and contested ball work is poor, something we really need to improve.

So if we can't improve that basic area with the midfield talent we have for me it means Leppa goes. Sure the KPPs will take some more time, but if we can't win the clearances and contested ball count on a regular basis (something we haven't done in ages) then it doesn't matter how the KPPs are developing, it says there is a problem with the set plays and structures which falls on Leppa's head.

 

[jackess]

This year has been really hard to judge and that isn't going to change much for another couple of weeks. The injuries we've had has meant that it has been impossible to even get anywhere near our best 18 on the field, this will improve of the next few weeks though (injury god's willing). What I'd want to see once we get out best midfield back on the park is for us to start doing a hell of a lot better at the stoppages, our clearance work and contested ball work is poor, something we really need to improve.

So if we can't improve that basic area with the midfield talent we have for me it means Leppa goes. Sure the KPPs will take some more time, but if we can't win the clearances and contested ball count on a regular basis (something we haven't done in ages) then it doesn't matter how the KPPs are developing, it says there is a problem with the set plays and structures which falls on Leppa's head.

When are we ever going to have our best midfield playing though?

 

[Fatcat08]

This year has been a pretty good example on the depth issues associated with losing multiple high draft picks over a significant range to time.

 

[jackess]

We have had injuries but you can't understate just how awful we've been this season. The only other team that's been worse beat us by 10 goals.

 

[dlanod]

We have had injuries but you can't understate just how awful we've been this season. The only other team that's been worse beat us by 10 goals.

But if we're using head to head results, we're also better than two teams above us, which suggests that we've actually been better than our ladder position.

 

[jackess]

But if we're using head to head results, we're also better than two teams above us, which suggests that we've actually been better than our ladder position.

There's a champion data table which forms a ladder based on who we've played and we're last.