Leppa's third year.

[bato]

I get what you were trying to say, but at most times its players bad judgement not game plan that brings us unstuck.

Yep, but how many times have you noticed the boys intentionally go backwards to go forward? I think it's Leppa's way of slowing things down and doing it the 'proper' way, instead of rushing and giving the forwards little time to lead. Almost like a rugby style attack (not that I watch rugby).

In the end, it might just take a good year for the players we have to fully understand the way Leppa wants them to play. As of right now, we're seeing the boys forcefully do it and it coming unstuck plenty of times. Other times they're just not confident enough to move the ball quickly.

 

[notliondown]

Yep, but how many times have you noticed the boys intentionally go backwards to go forward? I think it's Leppa's way of slowing things down and doing it the 'proper' way, instead of rushing and giving the forwards little time to lead. Almost like a rugby style attack (not that I watch rugby).

In the end, it might just take a good year for the players we have to fully understand the way Leppa wants them to play. As of right now, we're seeing the boys forcefully do it and it coming unstuck plenty of times. Other times they're just not confident enough to move the ball quickly.

Think you've nailed it here... I think initially we were all expecting "a" gameplan - maybe even Leppa himself - but now I think there are multiple styles we play based on who we are up against. Some have suggested its to mitigate big losses, and maybe it is, but I think it's probably more about trying to maintain possession and control against quick skillful teams who will hurt us quickly, without giving up hope of winning.

No game plan (unless you are Ross Lyon) will revolve around possession and defense entirely, but I think there has been a change in philosophy from a "one fits all" scenario once it became obvious we weren't ready and able to play that way to a more fluid approach. All of them require different skill sets and I think in the past 12 months its been more basic skill errors that have hurt us regardless of approach to a specific game.

 

[Skoob]

Yep, but how many times have you noticed the boys intentionally go backwards to go forward? I think it's Leppa's way of slowing things down and doing it the 'proper' way, instead of rushing and giving the forwards little time to lead. Almost like a rugby style attack (not that I watch rugby).

In the end, it might just take a good year for the players we have to fully understand the way Leppa wants them to play. As of right now, we're seeing the boys forcefully do it and it coming unstuck plenty of times. Other times they're just not confident enough to move the ball quickly.

One of the aims, when Leppa first took the reigns, was for the players to make every kick count (where possible). So in situations where there is congestion or big numbers forward, a kick in hope is a last option. Different when you're in the back 50 and you take your chances to clear it, going inside 50 is aimed to be more deliberate and considered. When we don't have a forward target and we do have space to maintain uncontested possession backwards, it is often the better option until something presents.

Edit: I don't think it is always a deliberate strategy to "slow things down", but more a case of us being slowed by the opposition. Sometimes we'll have space to move forward quickly, other times not. Confidence in hitting targets would also come into play.

 

[jackess]

The second half of the season has been a lot better. You still couldn't give Leppa another contract but there has been a few positive signs.

The team seems to be a lot more willing to take the game on and take some risks which has been a lot better.

We should and probably need to have 6-8 wins for Leppa next year.

 

[Ironmonger]

Musing on Leppitsch's future, I've come up with this pretty simplistic measure:

In 2016, if we win fewer than six games, Leppitsch almost certainly won't be our coach in 2017.

If we win ten or more games, Leppitsch almost certainly will be our coach in 2017.

Between six and nine wins is the zone of uncertainty, where other factors will be taken into account and Leppitsch may or may not keep going.

My reasoning is this: a season with five wins or fewer will see us anchored in the bottom two or three, and in that environment I think it would be difficult to give Leppitsch a contract extension even if the club wanted to. Even if we were generally more competitive across those seventeen losses I still think it would be hard to justify not making that change after three miserable years.

But ten wins or more, which would be similar to our progress from 2011 to 2012, would make it easy to market that the team is improving and headed in the right direction. Sacking Leppitsch would critically undermine that. Even with eight or nine wins that might be a sustainable message, but less so if a number of players look to leave.

So I say six wins to give the coach a shot at keeping his job, ten wins to make it a cinch.

Thoughts?

 

[POBT]

10 is pretty much the number I came up with as the point of absolute certainty for Leppa's future with a sliding scale of certainty with each extra loss.

I think he could mount a strong argument to be retained with 9 and even 8 wins and after that, it starts to become a struggle to say that he's got a future.

And before someone says it, yes, I do think his future can be decided by wins and losses because I think the club should be driven by performance and 3 years is enough time to get results on the board.

Having said that, I've been bullish about our list since we got Beams and co so I'm quite hopeful that 8 wins is a pretty reasonable target to set.

 

[ColdWarWarrior]

I agree, next year is make or break for Leppa, he needs the team to improve if he is going to keep his job and I think that the 10 win margin will do it for him, less than that and he has a problem.

 

[Albi_Mangler]

Tend to agree and believe Leppa would be under no illusions that next season is crucial for him

Unfortunately if we suffer a poor start again e.g. 0-5 or 1-5, I don't think he will make it to the end of the season for this 6-10 buffer to come into play.

Much will hinge in the all allusive fixture. We had a relatively tough draw this year. Leppa will be hoping for some early home games against bottom half teams.

 

[lions27]

I agree but I just can't see us getting close to 10 wins.
Will be stoked if we do though.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Hard to know what keeps Leppa in a job when we will be a younger team again next season. I can't think of many teams going backwards so that we can overtake them.

 

[Eons]

I wonder what the directive of the board will be to Leppa in regards to the long term plan of the club and what their benchmark on his coaching performance will be. Obviously we want to get as many games into the kids as we can but we can't sacrifice being competitive just for the sake of getting games into the kids. Very excited to see who we bring in over the trade period, if we can bring in some decent players and remain relatively injury free next year I don't think 8-10 wins is completely out of the question.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

can't see us getting near 10 unless we sign a dixon or tippett

 

[Ironmonger]

I wonder what the directive of the board will be to Leppa in regards to the long term plan of the club and what their benchmark on his coaching performance will be. Obviously we want to get as many games into the kids as we can but we can't sacrifice being competitive just for the sake of getting games into the kids. Very excited to see who we bring in over the trade period, if we can bring in some decent players and remain relatively injury free next year I don't think 8-10 wins is completely out of the question.

I wonder about benchmarks as well. Obviously it'll be more nuanced than wins and losses, but I reckon there would be an expectation of meaningful on-field improvement.

There's a lot of scepticism about how many games we can potentially win on this thread; I maintain our list isn't substantially behind the Bulldogs, who are breathing down the necks of the top four. Sure we have real weaknesses, but I honestly believe our current group is capable of a lot more than what we've seen.

 

[kylegee28]

Don't think Leppa has any say in the matter at all, but unfortunately, Jack Redden's likely departure is going to tighten the screws even more.

 

[jackess]

Don't think Leppa has any say in the matter at all, but unfortunately, Jack Redden's likely departure is going to tighten the screws even more.

Will definitely build pressure if we continue to lose players.

 

[SizeMatters]

What happened to a complete club/board review to stop this rubbish? Fair enough I understand why 19 year olds want to go back to mummies tit but a 25 year old?

 

[Last of the Roys]

Don't think Leppa has any say in the matter at all, but unfortunately, Jack Redden's likely departure is going to tighten the screws even more.

Not sure about that - Leppa has now been there two years. He has a big say in how players feel about the Club. To absolve him if that just because of Aish and the GH5 is a bridge too far.

 

[James North]

What happened to a complete club/board review to stop this rubbish? Fair enough I understand why 19 year olds want to go back to mummies tit but a 25 year old?

I think he's just slipped down the order - nothing like homesickness or anything.

 

[Kevvo]

I think it's worth considering the counterfactual where we had gone well this year. Say we got 10 wins with each players making the same relative contribution (ie everyone plays a bit better, list order of performance stays the same). That's not enough to play finals yet, but a pretty good result with a young group and would've created a sense of momentum for sure. How would that affect the situation with players? In my opinion:

• Aish probably leaves either way. It's hard to know his exact reasons, but a common thread is that he would've rather been at a different club from the get go.
• Leuey is a bit hard to make a call on, but the club could very plausibly have reached the position that we can't afford two first-choice rucks.
• It's hard to see how we would've reached a different position on Jed. If anything, it is harder to let go of your senior players when you have an underperforming young side. Also, I suspect the strategy that the bulldogs went for (commit to high quality youth) may have had a role in our planning.
• The factors reportedly influencing the club's position on Redden and Redden's position on the club wouldn't change. He would still have slid a bit down the midfield rankings due to our strong recruiting, Leppa's personality would still be what it is, our likelihood of short term success might look a bit better but I haven't seen anything suggesting Redden is chasing a premiership.

Those things being the case, I don't really think the movements so far indicate much about where Leppa is at. My opinion would probably change if some key players wanted out, but so far there's nothing beyond rumours to suggest that and you'd expect those sorts of rumours when you underperform relative to expectations.

 

[Bucking Beads]

They've just gotta back Leppa in. Similar to what Richmond did with Hardwick. We need some better results next year though.

 

[Last of the Roys]

They've just gotta back Leppa in. Similar to what Richmond did with Hardwick. We need some better results next year though.

We have no choice but to back him in, at least to the end of next year, but there are no doubt some worrying signs at the moment.

When I get some time I will list what I think he is getting right and what I think he is getting wrong. But at the end of all of this, it could just be the case that Leppa isn't good enough as a coach. On the other hand he might end up being a genius and prove a lot of us wrong. I guess the problem is that you don't really know the outcome until you back your coach in for at least a few years (if not more) to put his stamp on the place.

But, given where the Club is at, he just has to be able to show the Club is heading in the right direction by the end of next year, but at the moment that seems like even that will be difficult to achieve. It is definitely not all within his control, but the buck stops with him in terms of on-field performance. If we have another injury plagued year on top of mounting losses in experience in the off-season then it is hard to see how Leppa can survive.

What would be even more frightening is if we don't have an injury plagued year and we are still uncompetitive / play at appalling style of footy most of the time.

 

[Dan Steffen]

can't see us getting near 10 unless we sign a dixon or tippett

I agree. I feel like even without a big forward recruit, if we have a better run with injuries next year we should still be able to manage ~6-7 wins, which is a decent improvement over this years tragedy. If we can't do that, personally I'll be inclined to blame the coaches as much as the players.

Without help up forward, I think the only way we'd make it to 10 wins is if we have the aforementioned luck with injuries, while all of our young players take steps forward and the majority of our more senior players have good years. That's a tall order, but regardless some adept coaching of youngsters is going to be required.

Given our position I admit to being a bit skeptical about Leppa at this point... but I'd really just love to see us back someone in for a change and give the group some continuity where possible, especially if Lambert comes back into the fold too. I don't mean sign him to a long deal now, I just mean giving him enough support so he's shielded from circumstances where he's fired just to appease a mob. If he's sacked, I rather it was based on something more considered and substantial than than the optics of a win/loss record and media-driven pressure.

 

[SizeMatters]

If any of the exodus players leave and say Leppa was a reason behind it then he won't have a 3rd year.

 

[pulpdriver]

If any of the exodus players leave and say Leppa was a reason behind it then he won't have a 3rd year.

Extremely rare for a player to cite a coach as a reason they're leaving.

 

[Harris Specter]

Extremely rare for a player to cite a coach as a reason they're leaving.

When he told the club yesterday of his desire to leave, he confirmed his relationship with Leppitsch was the primary reason.