- Jan 30, 2013
- 16,166
- 16,559
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Alright, this looks like the TAB's first attempt at a low takeout system. so let's have a closer look.
i'm not sure how this will go, apparently the markets are set at 107% and no records apart from winning figure is recorded so you can only mark against 1 out of the 3 results. Anyhow i have built something quickly that should resemble the outcomes and probabilities.
The general plan is calculate expected payout (SP represented in odds/even/split) pre-race. either race morning (surely cant win this way) or more usefully 30-5 mins before the race then if overlay declare that as a bet pre-race and cop the price whatever it is. i will update and if i don't i'll take the race morning suggested bets.
a quick overlook at the synthetic track today (yesterday now) at ballarat with what it should have paid vs what it did
Rated/Paid
1.60/1.60
1.71/1.50
1.65/1.40
1.78/1.70
6.47/5.00
3.92/5.00
4.60/4.40
average deviation from expected price was 0.6% so quinella merged pool market looks fairly accurate and i should just have to beat the SP at better than 107% plus any lagg in the system.
seems enough for a trial period.
i'm not sure how this will go, apparently the markets are set at 107% and no records apart from winning figure is recorded so you can only mark against 1 out of the 3 results. Anyhow i have built something quickly that should resemble the outcomes and probabilities.
The general plan is calculate expected payout (SP represented in odds/even/split) pre-race. either race morning (surely cant win this way) or more usefully 30-5 mins before the race then if overlay declare that as a bet pre-race and cop the price whatever it is. i will update and if i don't i'll take the race morning suggested bets.
a quick overlook at the synthetic track today (yesterday now) at ballarat with what it should have paid vs what it did
Rated/Paid
1.60/1.60
1.71/1.50
1.65/1.40
1.78/1.70
6.47/5.00
3.92/5.00
4.60/4.40
average deviation from expected price was 0.6% so quinella merged pool market looks fairly accurate and i should just have to beat the SP at better than 107% plus any lagg in the system.
seems enough for a trial period.