Analysis Lin Jong 2017

[Wetdog]

I really don't get what the big deal is about Jong.

He was a speculative rookie pick, who has played 49 matches at the age of 23, and who takes up minimal salary cap room. He has some nice attributes, some flaws, and has performed in the range from poor to good footy over his career. He has been inconsistent, like most young players.

Jong's time to prove himself is now, and over the next 12 months.

This season he has performed reasonably well to keep himself in an indifferent performing reigning premiers team. Maybe he will build on this form and make a good career, maybe he won't and fall into the bracket of a could have been. He is a maybe player. But either way, I will be barracking hard that he succeeds, just like every other player on our list.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I really don't get what the big deal is about Jong.

He was a speculative rookie pick, who has played 49 matches at the age of 23, and who takes up minimal salary cap room. He has some nice attributes, some flaws, and has performed in the range from poor to good footy over his career. He has been inconsistent, like most young players.

Jong's time to prove himself is now, and over the next 12 months.

This season he has performed reasonably well to keep himself in an indifferent performing reigning premiers team. Maybe he will build on this form and make a good career, maybe he won't and fall into the bracket of a could have been. He is a maybe player. But either way, I will be barracking hard that he succeeds, just like every other player on our list.

Through virtue of having played 49 games relative to where he was drafted (the rookie list), he's already a success.

 

[Wetdog]

Through virtue of having played 49 games relative to where he was drafted (the rookie list), he's already a success.

In that context, yes. I suspect the average games played by a rookie selected player would be less than 49. So he is above average in that context.

The kid is a project player who has cost us very little in terms of picks, list space or salary cap. And he was a part of our list last year in a premiership winning year where we were universally lauded for our depth. Every player on that list helped in some small way to deliver the premiership, and Jong can hold his head high like the rest of them.

 

[Metal]

Jong has a shoulder problem and looks very stiff backed to me. This means he takes longer to get the ball to his foot to kick it. There are players who are very supple and can, in one bending motion, gather the ball and kick it. Jong struggles to do this and gets caught before he can get a kick away. He gets tackled often as he tends to fall or straight line it rather than evade the crush.

I would think he handballs more often as he (and the coaches) think this will be more effective and can open up the play, whereas his kicking can be stifled due to the time he takes to get it to his foot. Fatigue would also account for shorter distances from some of his kicks.

I actually thought he played well on the weekend. He was involved in a lot of play and scoring chains where his contribution was quite effective.

 

[Wetdog]

Jong has a shoulder problem and looks very stiff backed to me. This means he takes longer to get the ball to his foot to kick it. There are players who are very supple and can, in one bending motion, gather the ball and kick it. Jong struggles to do this and gets caught before he can get a kick away. He gets tackled often as he tends to fall or straight line it rather than evade the crush.

I would think he handballs more often as he (and the coaches) think this will be more effective and can open up the play, whereas his kicking can be stifled due to the time he takes to get it to his foot. Fatigue would also account for shorter distances from some of his kicks.

I actually thought he played well on the weekend. He was involved in a lot of play and scoring chains where his contribution was quite effective.

Well, I can't comment on most of that because I don't know.

But I do agree he put in a solid performance on the weekend.

 

[BRWB]

This thread isn't actually about Jong. It's about you proving yourself to be right, and barracking against a kid trying his best so that you can pursue your own personal vendettas against certain posters.

You actually lose either way. Either Jong plays well for our team and your position looks more ridiculous. Or Jong doesn't perform for our team, which hurts our prospects of winning matches, and you clutch onto this as some sort of personal victory. What a loser position to be in, kiddo. I know which side of the argument I would rather be on.

Wrong again. Noticing his faults is not barracking against him. I hope Jong does well, like I do with all our players. If it turns out I'm wrong about him I'm wrong - so what?

The only foolish posts I've seen on this page are your digs at me and a claim that Jong would keep an in form Libba out of the team.

Chill

 

[Wetdog]

Wrong again. Noticing his faults is not barracking against him. I hope Jong does well, like I do with all our players. If it turns out I'm wrong about him I'm wrong - so what?

The only foolish posts I've seen on this page are your digs at me and a claim that Jong would keep an in form Libba out of the team.

Chill

Your position last year - in a nutshell - was that Jong was not best 22. Jong has played every match this year. That seems pretty wrong to me.

 

[BRWB]

Your position last year - in a nutshell - was that Jong was not best 22. Jong has played every match this year. That seems pretty wrong to me.

Subject to injury m8. If he is best 22 when all our mid/fwds are fit and firing I'd be surprised - yes and wrong. But that hasn't been the case all year.

 

[Wetdog]

Subject to injury m8. If he is best 22 when all our mid/fwds are fit and firing I'd be surprised - yes and wrong. But that hasn't been the case all year.

So you are saying that if all midfielders and forwards on our list are fit and playing to their potential ("firing"), then Jong is not best 22. That's fine to have that opinion. But it's just an opinion that their potential form is better than Jong's potential form. But that opinion may well be wrong, just like when some posters said that a fit Wallis would replace Jong when he returned to the side. As we know, it transpired that Wallis replaced Libba.

I love your argument by the way - it is very convenient as (i) teams will generally always have a couple of injuries on their books at a minimum and (ii) future form can always be debated as it is forward looking. So I guess, in that sense, Jong can never be best 22 because in your eyes there will always be someone injured or playing in the VFL who has the potential to play better football than Jong. Very clever.

But that is very distinct from what I am saying: Jong is in our best 22 RIGHT NOW. That is indisputable FACT. And why is it indisputable? Because the match committee have picked him for every game this season.

BTW - I look forward to reaching this mythical land of no injuries/everybody firing, that you and your friend keep referring to, because if I understand anything from watching footy for thirty years it is that there will always be injuries and form issues with certain players. But if that's your "happy place", then I would love to visit sometime.

 

[yebiga]

That bit is fine.

The bit where you expect them to become All-Australian is the whacked bit. Jong is capable at AFL level and therefore is already a success.

Your being way to defensive
If you invest 15 years into 3 players and end up with average - is that acceptable?

 

[yebiga]

You're overestimating the statistical certainty of finding a Dahlhaus, Morris or Moyd in the rookie draft when we can look at the evidence of the Rookie draft.
In the history of the rookie draft, if you take the first 2 rounds (rookie draft picks 1-36), you get an average games per selection of about 30 games in the history of the rookie draft since the late 90's - with a sample size of over 700 players drafted. Whilst that includes players who will go onto play games but haven't yet, drafted in the last few years, it also includes mature-aged selections who are picked up for the benefit of 5-10 games here and there as injury cover/as a mature body for young kids etc. but provide no long-term value (so may as well be rated 0 games for that purpose). In any case, if we take 30 games as a benchmark, and compare that to Jong's return of 50 games and the likelihood that he'll be a 100, 150 gamer in time, it literally makes no sense to pass over Jong (someone who proved he could play in his 1st year), over the 10% chance of recruiting a Dahlhaus or whatever, which in the end, averages to 30 games or whatever production.

There's also the argument to be had, as more and more clubs invest more resources into the art of drafting, that the draft becomes more "efficient" than it was 10/20 years ago - the players that become better at the end of their careers are less likely to have been rookie picks than ever before, because the greater resources of AFL clubs as a collective are better at judging talent. Using data from 1998-now might even be underselling my point.

I can't follow your logic. It's not based in evidence/facts/what we know about the evidence at hand of the value of the rookie draft. It's a 30 game average.

I was not putting together an iron clad theory. I don't know the averages and percentages.

My point is best made with a question- how many years do you invest in developing a players and how do you measure whether the return on any single investment is warranted?

On one hand I've got Jong'a mum Thinking I'm having a go at her son and you wanting a statistical fact based thesis.

Sometimes you feel there are a lot of us on the spectrum here.

 

[yebiga]

Lin Jong has not conceded a free kick yet this season. #NewBillings

And this may well be what's holding him back - his way too nice out there. I little bit of anger and attitude is good - the odd free kick is healthy.

 

[doggies ftw]

I was not putting together an iron clad theory. I don't know the averages and percentages.

My point is best made with a question- how many years do you invest in developing a players and how do you measure whether the return on any single investment is warranted?

On one hand I've got Jong'a mum Thinking I'm having a go at her son and you wanting a statistical fact based thesis.

Sometimes you feel there are a lot of us on the spectrum here.

I just don't get where you're coming from in the slightest. Jong being an athletic 'project' player has nothing to do with anything. We got him extremely cheaply and he's a solid AFL player in our best team right now, and will most likely play over 150 games for the club. how is that not a win? Why does he have to be AA to justify developing him for 6 years but if we drafted a player whose not so athletically gifted but more of a natural footballer (with limitations) who after 6 years was just a solid cog of your 22 that would be okay?

Literally makes no sense.

 

[yebiga]

I just don't get where you're coming from in the slightest. Jong being an athletic 'project' player has nothing to do with anything. We got him extremely cheaply and he's a solid AFL player in our best team right now, and will most likely play over 150 games for the club. how is that not a win? Why does he have to be AA to justify developing him for 6 years but if we drafted a player whose not so athletically gifted but more of a natural footballer (with limitations) who after 6 years was just a solid cog of your 22 that would be okay?

Literally makes no sense.

Your absolutely right

It's like quantum physics: I don't believe the wave collapses - there are multiverses everywhere. And everything that can happen does happen somewhere.

 

[darthbards]

Can't believe people actually come to a thread to barrack against one of our player.
To some he's not even a scapegoat, it's like they are angry that Jongs type is even on our list for whatever reason that is.

 

[darthbards]

I hope they have a good banner for Jongys 50th.
Lol he has to be AA now to keep people happy.

 

[dogwatch]

I hope they have a good banner for Jongys 50th.
Lol he has to be AA now to keep people one particular poster happy.

EFA.

Anyway, congrats Lin on getting to 50 games (assuming you're picked!) and thanks for sticking with us. You've had to do it the hard way.

 

[lachy]

Can't believe people actually come to a thread to barrack against one of our player.
To some he's not even a scapegoat, it's like they are angry that Jongs type is even on our list for whatever reason that is.

Other than one poster who has actually toned down a bit there is not a single poster barracking against Lin so really what is the point of your hyperbole?

This is a discussion forum. Reading some posts on here you would think Lin rivals some of the greats of the game.

There are always players who polarise and there always will be.

As he is playing right now, if he is in our team we will not be winning finals. No this is not how MD says what he says about Lin, however if with his current form he is best 22, which according to selection he is, we are not challenging this year. Being clear, that is not to say he is not best 22 right now, but our best 22 right now as they have been playing is barely a finals side let alone one challenging for the flag.

As a mid he is being led into contests, hence why some games he has a high tackle count, which means opposition mids are controlling the football. When he does get the football he is breaking away with great speed, then more times than not handballing it back into traffic not continuing the spread and utilising that skill. And his goal kicking and decision making around goals is poor at best.

Does this mean he cannot improve in these area's, of course not. However, he has been in the system 7 years already. We are not a developing team these days, we are here to challenge so a fit and in form Libba replaces him in the middle, and Maclean and Smith replace his as forward mids. If they do not get fit or into form our team is weaker.

For a comparison Bailey Dale had a breakout game on the weekend. His decision making and skills were clearly better than Lin's.

In saying all of this he is clearly a very competent AFL level player who works hard at his game, has great character and you know will put in 100% effort. So far from barracking against him, the vast majority of us so called anti Jong posters actually want nothing more than for him to succeed and become a consistently good player in his role. If that's mid well over 20 constructive possessions a game, if it is a forward games of 3 or 4 goals every 4 or so weeks. That is what good players consistently do and that is what we need from players in those positions to challenge again and it is what Jong has done in the VFL but has not consistently in the AFL as yet

 

[yebiga]

I just don't get where you're coming from in the slightest. Jong being an athletic 'project' player has nothing to do with anything. We got him extremely cheaply and he's a solid AFL player in our best team right now, and will most likely play over 150 games for the club. how is that not a win? Why does he have to be AA to justify developing him for 6 years but if we drafted a player whose not so athletically gifted but more of a natural footballer (with limitations) who after 6 years was just a solid cog of your 22 that would be okay?

Literally makes no sense.

Your being deliberately dim.
If we drafted 3 natural footballers lacking elite athletic abilities your almost guaranteed to get one who is ok. So if your going the athletic path which has a higher risk surely you need better than ok - or why bother.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I would think Lin would be in our top 5 in the B & F at the moment. END OF STORY

I am not sure why there is any discussion about the merits of his selection other than one poster who has an obsession on him not being good enough. The same poster used to say the same about Tory but I think he has given up bagging him.

 

[BRWB]

Other than one poster who has actually toned down a bit there is not a single poster barracking against Lin so really what is the point of your hyperbole?

This is a discussion forum. Reading some posts on here you would think Lin rivals some of the greats of the game.

There are always players who polarise and there always will be.

As he is playing right now, if he is in our team we will not be winning finals. No this is not how MD says what he says about Lin, however if with his current form he is best 22, which according to selection he is, we are not challenging this year. Being clear, that is not to say he is not best 22 right now, but our best 22 right now as they have been playing is barely a finals side let alone one challenging for the flag.

As a mid he is being led into contests, hence why some games he has a high tackle count, which means opposition mids are controlling the football. When he does get the football he is breaking away with great speed, then more times than not handballing it back into traffic not continuing the spread and utilising that skill. And his goal kicking and decision making around goals is poor at best.

Does this mean he cannot improve in these area's, of course not. However, he has been in the system 7 years already. We are not a developing team these days, we are here to challenge so a fit and in form Libba replaces him in the middle, and Maclean and Smith replace his as forward mids. If they do not get fit or into form our team is weaker.

For a comparison Bailey Dale had a breakout game on the weekend. His decision making and skills were clearly better than Lin's.

In saying all of this he is clearly a very competent AFL level player who works hard at his game, has great character and you know will put in 100% effort. So far from barracking against him, the vast majority of us so called anti Jong posters actually want nothing more than for him to succeed and become a consistently good player in his role. If that's mid well over 20 constructive possessions a game, if it is a forward games of 3 or 4 goals every 4 or so weeks. That is what good players consistently do and that is what we need from players in those positions to challenge again and it is what Jong has done in the VFL but has not consistently in the AFL as yet

That is a fantastic post which sums up the situation brilliantly IMO.

The quality of this post is like a bolt from the blue in this thread and has quite possibly saved this thread from being locked...not sure whether to thank you or curse you Lachy.

 

[yebiga]

I hope they have a good banner for Jongys 50th.
Lol he has to be AA now to keep people happy.

Close to - of his 49 games it's only his last 20 that are on merit.
That's a solid 29 game investment and I'm a strong fan of that investment.and I think his upside is still large but if he stagnates where he is - it is still always a credit to him but I suggest there is good reason to be a little disappointed.

That said we invested too much time in Tutt Jones & Grant and got bigger all out of it. So Jong has surpassed that. On the other hand Consider Dale Hamilton and Caleb.

 

[Del165892]

If Jong could just get those hospital handballs out of his game he would be great

 

[BEaston]

As he is playing right now, if he is in our team we will not be winning finals. No this is not how MD says what he says about Lin, however if with his current form he is best 22, which according to selection he is, we are not challenging this year. Being clear, that is not to say he is not best 22 right now, but our best 22 right now as they have been playing is barely a finals side let alone one challenging for the flag.

Don't necessarily disagree with the rest of your post but this bit is just ridiculous. Just completely baseless.

No team is made up of only superstars and many premiership sides have had bottom 22 players that are worse than Jong. To say we won't win a final with him in the team is a bit OTT. Let's just ignore the fact we already won a final with him in the team so evidence says you're actually already wrong anyway. A game in which he was dominating before getting injured btw, in case you forgot. This claim of yours is reminiscent of another posters' predictions regarding Jong which turned out to be wrong about 4 weeks (years?) running.

 

[Struggle]

Don't necessarily disagree with the rest of your post but this bit is just ridiculous. Just completely baseless.

No team is made up of only superstars and many premiership sides have had bottom 22 players that are worse than Jong. To say we won't win a final with him in the team is a bit OTT. Let's just ignore the fact we already won a final with him in the team so evidence says you're actually already wrong anyway. A game in which he was dominating before getting injured btw, in case you forgot. This claim of yours is reminiscent of another posters' predictions regarding Jong which turned out to be wrong about 4 weeks (years?) running.

He got injured at the 13 minute mark of the 2nd quarter and had 6 touches with 2 tackles. Hardly dominating.
And if that is a Dominant game for Jong then it explains why people think he is a long way from our best side with everyone in form (not that this is likely to ever happen)