Analysis Lin Jong 2017

[BEaston]

He got injured at the 13 minute mark of the 2nd quarter and had 6 touches with 2 tackles. Hardly dominating.
And if that is a Dominant game for Jong then it explains why people think he is a long way from our best side with everyone in form (not that this is likely to ever happen)

Fair enough. Regardless of stats I remember him playing very well up to that point. Dominating probably not accurate though.

 

[BRWB]

Fair enough. Regardless of stats I remember him playing very well up to that point. Dominating probably not accurate though.

It's less than half a game and six possessions, I just don't see how you could suggest that this supports a contention that Jong helped us win a final. Seems dodgier than a Jong set shot.

Don't necessarily disagree with the rest of your post but this bit is just ridiculous. Just completely baseless.

No team is made up of only superstars and many premiership sides have had bottom 22 players that are worse than Jong. To say we won't win a final with him in the team is a bit OTT. Let's just ignore the fact we already won a final with him in the team so evidence says you're actually already wrong anyway. A game in which he was dominating before getting injured btw, in case you forgot. This claim of yours is reminiscent of another posters' predictions regarding Jong which turned out to be wrong about 4 weeks (years?) running.

It's certainly not ridiculous to make the point that if Jong is playing then other better players are injured or have form issues, and that the team suffers because it isn't playing optimal players. Can we win a flag this year if Jong is playing? Maybe. Are our chances reduced if he plays? Undoubtably IMO.

 

[DelRe]

Lin Jong's top 5 possession games have all have come since R23 last year.

Of those 5 games we lost 4 only beating NM by 3 points.

Something in that for everyone in this thread.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Subject to injury m8. If he is best 22 when all our mid/fwds are fit and firing I'd be surprised - yes and wrong. But that hasn't been the case all year.

So we have no midfield injuries and Jong keeps getting selected every game. Now they don't count either cause players are down on form...

It's getting pretty rediculous. Jong is being selected as best 22 on form plain and simple

 

[BRWB]

So we have no midfield injuries and Jong keeps getting selected every game. Now they don't count either cause players are down on form...

It's getting pretty rediculous. Jong is being selected as best 22 on form plain and simple

Smith and Dunkely are both fwd/mids who are injured. What's so ridiculous?

 

[doggies ftw]

Smith and Dunkely are both fwd/mids who are injured. What's so ridiculous?

And Jong was picked before both...

There's just no arguing about it anymore, he's best 22 with a full midfield available

 

[yebiga]

Come on guys - I'm a Jong fan
I'm desperate to see him and expect him to go to the next level.

But right now if everyone is available and inform he still misses. To his credit this point is now being debated - I don't think it would have been 12-24 months ago.

So he is almost there where the debate is done and dusted in his favour. But his not quite there.

At some point, McLean and Liber will jump past Jongs current out put. What did McLean have in the VFL 33 and 38 posies during the last two weeks? And his always good for a goal at AFL level.

And Liber is too good to languish in the VFL for long.

So the question is whether Jong can go another level. Because he is going to need to. If he does then the pressure will fall elsewhere.

It's actually a very healthy situation to have this pressure on staying in the 22.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Are people also forgetting the excellent Elim final vs Adelaide that Jong played in 2015? Okay, we might not have won the game, but Jong unarguably played an excellent game and we would have lost by more without him. Remember that critical contested mark I50 and goal he kicked? How he chipped in with 23 touches and influence around the ground? He was also playing well against West Coast as much as people want to diminish it. Combine all this with his two VFL GF performances (arguably could have been BOG ahead of Goodes for the 2014 GF, and was the 2016 VFL GF BOG).

There are valid criticisms of Jong but on the evidence we have on hand I don't think capabilities to perform in finals is one of them.

 

[Unorth]

I'm not a huge Jong fan, but does he really miss if everyone's healthy?

I don't think he does. I think it's pretty clear Bevo loves him. He would have been playing in the rest of our finals series if he didn't get injured. I think, in a world where our entire list is healthy and in form, Jong would get a game.

Do I agree? Not necessarily. But what do I know. If Bevo thinks he should play then I'll trust that he does what he's been asked every week.

 

[BEaston]

It's less than half a game and six possessions, I just don't see how you could suggest that this supports a contention that Jong helped us win a final. Seems dodgier than a Jong set shot.



It's certainly not ridiculous to make the point that if Jong is playing then other better players are injured or have form issues, and that the team suffers because it isn't playing optimal players. Can we win a flag this year if Jong is playing? Maybe. Are our chances reduced if he plays? Undoubtably IMO.

My point was not that Jong helped us win a final (even though he clearly did, to a small degree). My point was to dispute that we wouldn't win a final with him in the team. Which is wrong because we already have done exactly that. Unless you or lachy want to argue that we won that game because Jong got injured which would be pretty moronic.

Regarding your second para: OK that's fine you think he would reduce our chances of winning, but it's completely different to what lachy said who was very unequivocal that we would not win with him in the team. At all.

 

[BEaston]

Lin Jong's top 5 possession games have all have come since R23 last year.

Of those 5 games we lost 4 only beating NM by 3 points.

Something in that for everyone in this thread.

Really? Jong's fault for the rest of the midfield/team not performing then I guess.

 

[BEaston]

Come on guys - I'm a Jong fan
I'm desperate to see him and expect him to go to the next level.

But right now if everyone is available and inform he still misses. To his credit this point is now being debated - I don't think it would have been 12-24 months ago.

So he is almost there where the debate is done and dusted in his favour. But his not quite there.

At some point, McLean and Liber will jump past Jongs current out put. What did McLean have in the VFL 33 and 38 posies during the last two weeks? And his always good for a goal at AFL level.

And Liber is too good to languish in the VFL for long.

So the question is whether Jong can go another level. Because he is going to need to. If he does then the pressure will fall elsewhere.

It's actually a very healthy situation to have this pressure on staying in the 22.

It's impossible to predict the future.

McLean has been dropped multiple times. There's something he's not doing and he's no guarantee he can fix that to cement his spot.
Libba looks miles off it atm. If he doesn't pull his finger out, Bev won't simply play him on reputation.

Also your situation ignores the fact that Jong is still outperforming more than 2 others currently in the side. Even if those 2 do come back in, who's to say it's not two others that go out?

 

[lachy]

Don't necessarily disagree with the rest of your post but this bit is just ridiculous. Just completely baseless.

No team is made up of only superstars and many premiership sides have had bottom 22 players that are worse than Jong. To say we won't win a final with him in the team is a bit OTT. Let's just ignore the fact we already won a final with him in the team so evidence says you're actually already wrong anyway. A game in which he was dominating before getting injured btw, in case you forgot. This claim of yours is reminiscent of another posters' predictions regarding Jong which turned out to be wrong about 4 weeks (years?) running.

He got injured at the 13 minute mark of the 2nd quarter and had 6 touches with 2 tackles. Hardly dominating.
And if that is a Dominant game for Jong then it explains why people think he is a long way from our best side with everyone in form (not that this is likely to ever happen)

For one thing Struggle covers off on your hyperbole about how Lin was going in the final. Will just say this is evidence of my second line "This is a discussion forum. Reading some posts on here you would think Lin rivals some of the greats of the game. If that was a dominant game what was Bont's game against the Hawks!!!!!

Next you obviously struggle a bit with reading. I stated "we are not challenging this year" if Jong is in our best 22. Your comment was "To say we won't win a final with him in the team is a bit OTT" then carry on with the hyperbole Struggle has addressed. We won finals in 1985, 1992, 1997,1998, 2006,2008,2009 and 2010 and most of those years were not genuine challenges so evidence is I am in no way wrong but you and your biased reading clearly are or believe you are reading a MD post. no where did I say we would not win a game or final with him in it. Merely if this is his best and he is in our 22 I believe we will not challenge

Due to some of our better mids and mid forwards being either injured or out of form we are slightly off the pace this year so far. Those players return to fitness and form Lin is out of the team and we are back challenging. OR Lin actually becomes a quality mid or forward mid in a genuine top 4 team ie over 20 quality possessions a game or a 3 or 4 goal game every 4 games or so averaging 1.5 to 2 goals a game, which given he is average just on 20 disposals a game and clearly they have not mostly been quality, and he is averaging a goal every 2 games he is not staring in his roles. Either he picks up or others get back to form or we will not be challenging.

 

[BEaston]

For one thing Struggle covers off on your hyperbole about how Lin was going in the final. Will just say this is evidence of my second line "This is a discussion forum. Reading some posts on here you would think Lin rivals some of the greats of the game. If that was a dominant game what was Bont's game against the Hawks!!!!!

Next you obviously struggle a bit with reading. I stated "we are not challenging this year" if Jong is in our best 22. Your comment was "To say we won't win a final with him in the team is a bit OTT" then carry on with the hyperbole Struggle has addressed. We won finals in 1985, 1992, 1997,1998, 2006,2008,2009 and 2010 and most of those years were not genuine challenges so evidence is I am in no way wrong but you and your biased reading clearly are or believe you are reading a MD post. no where did I say we would not win a game or final with him in it. Merely if this is his best and he is in our 22 I believe we will not challenge

Due to some of our better mids and mid forwards being either injured or out of form we are slightly off the pace this year so far. Those players return to fitness and form Lin is out of the team and we are back challenging. OR Lin actually becomes a quality mid or forward mid in a genuine top 4 team ie over 20 quality possessions a game or a 3 or 4 goal game every 4 games or so averaging 1.5 to 2 goals a game, which given he is average just on 20 disposals a game and clearly they have not mostly been quality, and he is averaging a goal every 2 games he is not staring in his roles. Either he picks up or others get back to form or we will not be challenging.

Mate the words are right here:

As he is playing right now, if he is in our team we will not be winning finals.

So tell me again, how did I misinterpret what you wrote? What did you mean here? Sorry to interpret the words "winning finals" exactly as "winning finals".

If you want me to stop reading an MD post, stop writing one.

See, two people can be condescending

This whole predictive thing is just fkd anyway. It's setting up some massive "I told you so's" when these ridiculous expectations are not met. If we struggle to contend, it's Jong's fault. Forget the rest of the team under performing. If we contend but fall short, it's still Jong's fault because he was the difference. The way it's going, the only way for some people to call Jong a success is if he wins a Norm Smith in a premiership (we've already had calls he must be AA to be successful, why stop there?!). It's just a ridiculous monotone way of looking at things, that completely ignores that there's 21 other players that make up a team.

 

[lachy]

Mate the words are right here:

So tell me again, how did I misinterpret what you wrote? What did you mean here? Sorry to interpret the words "winning finals" exactly as "winning finals".

If you want me to stop reading an MD post, stop writing one.

See, two people can be condescending

This whole predictive thing is just fkd anyway. It's setting up some massive "I told you so's" when these ridiculous expectations are not met. If we struggle to contend, it's Jong's fault. Forget the rest of the team. If we contend but fall short, it's still Jong's fault because he was the difference. The way it's going, the only way for some people to call Jong a success is if he wins a Norm Smith in a premiership. It's just a ridiculous monotone way of looking at things, that completely ignores that there's 21 other players that make up a team.

For the majority on here they including me really want him to do well.

At the moment he is doing well enough to be playing each week in a team that sits 6 and 4. For that team to push to top 2 players playing mid in particular but also mid forward have to improve.

Therefore either Lin improves, others step up or we will not be a top 2 team. That is a reality the first 10 weeks have shown.

Lin is a success. He is a competant AFL player who has and always will work his backside off.

However in the finals last year mids and forward mids were exceptional in games. We won finals and won a flag. For Lin to be part of a team that doea that he needs to produce an exceptional game against a good team. As this is what made the 2016 team different to any of our prelim teams in past years.

At this stage, on what he has produced so far, this has not happend. We are 6 and 4. Not enough of the others who would replace or keep him out of the side however, have stepped up and produced exceptional games either. Hence we are hanging in at 6 and 4.

Either Lin or Libba, Maclean or Smith do this and otherwise are consistently good or we will not challenge this year. The proof is simply our performance so far

 

[Metal]

As a mid he is being led into contests, hence why some games he has a high tackle count, which means opposition mids are controlling the football. When he does get the football he is breaking away with great speed, then more times than not handballing it back into traffic not continuing the spread and utilising that skill. And his goal kicking and decision making around goals is poor at best.

Some of this is debatable. He has to choose when to go in and when to stay outside. We don't want all players piling in. He gets the tackle count up because he often is on the outside ready to pounce on the ball or stop a player getting free. That would appear to be his role.

I don't think he is being led to contests, rather that the ball comes out of a contest in a different position to where he is. At ball ups this might have more to do with what the ruck is doing, what other mids are doing and what everyone's role is at the time. Nevertheless an elite player might better know where to be.

And when he goes in, he has been first to the ball, but is unable to break free. Sometimes in part because he cannot get his body into a position to release fast enough or he fumbles and misses the opportunity.

As for his hand balling, it is vastly improved. He is successfully involved in chains every week.

The MC would be well aware of his limitations, but they, it would appear, choose to focus on his strengths.

 

[maddog37]

Jong has speed and can take a mark up forward. Which of our other mids can do this?

 

[BEaston]

For the majority on here they including me really want him to do well.

At the moment he is doing well enough to be playing each week in a team that sits 6 and 4. For that team to push to top 2 players playing mid in particular but also mid forward have to improve.

Therefore either Lin improves, others step up or we will not be a top 2 team. That is a reality the first 10 weeks have shown.

Lin is a success. He is a competant AFL player who has and always will work his backside off.

However in the finals last year mids and forward mids were exceptional in games. We won finals and won a flag. For Lin to be part of a team that doea that he needs to produce an exceptional game against a good team. As this is what made the 2016 team different to any of our prelim teams in past years.

At this stage, on what he has produced so far, this has not happend. We are 6 and 4. Not enough of the others who would replace or keep him out of the side however, have stepped up and produced exceptional games either. Hence we are hanging in at 6 and 4.

Either Lin or Libba, Maclean or Smith do this and otherwise are consistently good or we will not challenge this year. The proof is simply our performance so far

So basically:
The team needs to improve to get to top 2 (not sure why this is in a Jong thread)
The reason we're 6-4 is because the team is not performing (not sure why this is in a Jong thread)

Let's just continue on the Jong thread though, even if it's somewhat irrelevant to your points....

Nobody is really arguing that Jong isn't in the lower third of the 22 if everyone is playing at their best. So why are the expectations on him to produce exceptionally the same as the exceptional players? A premiership team is not made up of 22 exceptional players. The quality falls off through the 22. That much should be obvious. There are good premiership teams that contained legit spuds. It is completely unrealistic to expect everyone in the 22 to be exceptional. Dunkley last year was never really exceptional, but he played a role well to the best of his ability. Same with Cordy really. Roberts too. Did these players have exceptional games during the finals? Not really. They just played their roles well and generally won more contests than their oppo and made good decisions more often than not. It's over the top to say that Jong needs to be exceptional for us to do anything. He is averaging 21 possessions, 3 marks and 5 tackles as a player in the bottom third of the 22. That is completely acceptable for a player at that level. I'm sure Jong will continue to improve and as he does our expectations of him will grow. As it stands we have a lot more players who we have bigger expectations of, who are severely underperforming against those expectations. More urgently, the improvement needs to come from those players.

 

[yebiga]

Jong has speed and can take a mark up forward. Which of our other mids can do this?

Agree but no point charging towards goal with your speed or marking 30 out and consistently missing or stuffing up

 

[perro_loco]

I was not putting together an iron clad theory. I don't know the averages and percentages.

My point is best made with a question- how many years do you invest in developing a players and how do you measure whether the return on any single investment is warranted?

On one hand I've got Jong'a mum Thinking I'm having a go at her son and you wanting a statistical fact based thesis.

Sometimes you feel there are a lot of us on the spectrum here.

This is a tough question to answer. Lake is an example. First 3 to 4 years I thought he was terrible. Then he became a super star due to confidence. Last season at the dogs he was terrible, but went to Hawks and killed it. I guess the rule is, if the player does what the coach and MC expects, then he will be in. Jong is a good player, but we all want him to better than Dangerfield. Well that is what I hope, but we all know he won't be that good. He might have a blinder in a GF and he becomes a hero. All I hope is that he does well simply because it's is good for the game. It is an emotional and not a rational thing. That's what fans do, I guess.

 

[perro_loco]

That is a fantastic post which sums up the situation brilliantly IMO.

The quality of this post is like a bolt from the blue in this thread and has quite possibly saved this thread from being locked...not sure whether to thank you or curse you Lachy.

Jong is not good enough. Worst player in the history of the game. Just thought I put it out there to keep the thread going.

 

[perro_loco]

Come on guys - I'm a Jong fan
I'm desperate to see him and expect him to go to the next level.

But right now if everyone is available and inform he still misses. To his credit this point is now being debated - I don't think it would have been 12-24 months ago.

So he is almost there where the debate is done and dusted in his favour. But his not quite there.

At some point, McLean and Liber will jump past Jongs current out put. What did McLean have in the VFL 33 and 38 posies during the last two weeks? And his always good for a goal at AFL level.

And Liber is too good to languish in the VFL for long.

So the question is whether Jong can go another level. Because he is going to need to. If he does then the pressure will fall elsewhere.

It's actually a very healthy situation to have this pressure on staying in the 22.

But I think that Mclean and Liber are likely to replace other players other than Jong, based on what the MC expect him to do. I think Jong is about 1 or 2 games away from a blinder. All he needs is that "believe in myself' kickstart and he will deliver. On the other hand, I am worried about Liber thinking that winning one premiership is just enough and he goes to sleep on his laurels. now that is what I call is waste and I hope I am totally wroonnnggg!!!!

 

[yebiga]

But I think that Mclean and Liber are likely to replace other players other than Jong, based on what the MC expect him to do. I think Jong is about 1 or 2 games away from a blinder. All he needs is that "believe in myself' kickstart and he will deliver. On the other hand, I am worried about Liber thinking that winning one premiership is just enough and he goes to sleep on his laurels. now that is what I call is waste and I hope I am totally wroonnnggg!!!!

I concur on both
I too am concerned about Liber
At full tilt he is as good as the Bont

 

[DelRe]

Really? Jong's fault for the rest of the midfield/team not performing then I guess.

There's a good chance I probably got the stat wrong but just thought it was a classic example of one that both sides of the argument could take as supporting their view.

Firmly tongue in cheek.

 

[perro_loco]

You are right MD
If Jong doesn't turn out to be something special and only becomes what he is or there abouts then that is a non optimal use of our resources. He essentially needs to get to AA standard to justify the investment. I agree. I still think it's possible.

Agree - we wasted too many years on Tom Williams and I believe Ayce Cordy too. I luv that Bev gave Ace every chance in 2015 and we made the hard call quickly.

We may be going a year too long on Declan right now.

I think having one athletic project player on a list is a good strategy.

They need to be improving every year though to justify the investment.

When it works you get an Eastern Wood. I expect only 1/3 will work but you need to keep at it.

As for Jong - the clubs done all it can - he must now sink or swim on his own merits. I think he knows that - the clubs got him to a level - the rest is really all mental.

He has the capacity to be sinking 2 goals a game on top of his current out put. His leap and his speed is elite.

If he does - it changes the equation in our favor and justifies the investment. If he can't amp it up in front of goal he will drift out of the 22.

I think Bev wants his speed in the mid field and is prepared to give him every chance.

In my view Jong is an investment barely above the inflation rate. and that is good enough for me, because I am in front and not behind, meaning our club is in front. Surely, Bont's return is much higher, but the guy was pick no. 4, a much higher price in terms of picks and a gem recruit!!! In other words, little money spent on Jong as an invementst. in my view, he is a hold and not a sell, unless you can swap that stock for something of much higher potential value. Not a Jaeger O'Meara. That is what I call a poor investment, in the sense that the expected return is not any way near what it is required to come up with. My view, is hold on Jong, just like you would with shares that give you a return well above the inflation rate. HOPE IT MAKES SENSE!