List Age Analysis

[SHill Shall]

Now that the list has been finalised for 2011, I thought I'd update the age profile and average age calc's and compare to 2010. This is based on the player's age at 31 March in the relevant year (2011 stated first, 2010 in brackets).

28+ 6 (8)
25-27 8 (7)
22-24 12 (9)
20-21 11 (7)
17-19 9 (15)
Total 46 (46)
​

Average listed players age 23.45 (23.62)
Average age incl. rookies 23.06 (23.18)
​

My conclusions are:

• list age reduced slightly
• profile changes from an hour glass to the more normal bell curve
• given the difficulty we're all having in selecting a best 22, this squad should perform even better than in 2010. Particularly if some of the mid age recruits can find their feet (Mzungu, Faulks, Anthony, Griffin).

 

[greatgatsby]

Good stuff SHill Shall There's been a lot written elsewhere (Melbourne-centric media) about how young and promising some other lists are (North, Melb, Richmond). But I suspect we are barely older than them, if at all, and we have in my view three advantages; we've already been to the finals with this group; more depth (particularly after recent recruiting) and; Pav and Sandi!

 

[Clay Davis]

The thing I like the most is that the reduction of age in our list has mostly come from chopping dead wood (Dodd, Murphy, Thornton). We haven't lost too much in our best 22.

 

[Scham]

Are we in Premiership mode?

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

It's all part of the process

 

[sabre_ac]

The value of an age analysis is normally pretty limited, having the lowest average age means nothing.

It's all about the age of your major contributors and how much longer they have got.

We have a great bunch of kids, but our three most important players Pav, Mcpharlin and Sandi are getting on with limited replacements coming up the ranks.

I realise the game has changed and your traditional KPP player is no longer as important as they once where, the Chapmans of the world are now dominating (Hello Fyfe), I still worry about who will replace Pav, Sandi and Mcpharlin/Grover when they go/decline.

 

[Avid_Avenger]

The value of an age analysis is normally pretty limited, having the lowest average age means nothing.

It's all about the age of your major contributors and how much longer they have got.

We have a great bunch of kids, but our three most important players Pav, Mcpharlin and Sandi are getting on with limited replacements coming up the ranks.

I realise the game has changed and your traditional KPP player is no longer as important as they once where, the Chapmans of the world are now dominating (Hello Fyfe), I still worry about who will replace Pav, Sandi and Mcpharlin/Grover when they go/decline.

So do I. But having a better, productive, skillful midfield and quality medium-sized KPP offsets this concern somewhat. History shows you can have a couple of brutish muppets manning the forward line and still win the premiership if your spread of running talent is strong. Our talented running players are all going to be peaking together and there will be more than 1 A grade mid for the opposition to worry about - all we need to do is find a Ben Reid or a Nathan Brown within our younger KPP backs and we'll be okay I think.

Sandilands probably stands to be the biggest loss of all (no pun intended). No offense to Pav (who has carried us for years) and McPharlin (our best ever CHB).

 

[Clay Davis]

all we need to do is find a Ben Reid or a Nathan Brown within our younger KPP backs and we'll be okay I think.

A top 10 draft pick?

 

[Avid_Avenger]

A top 10 draft pick?

Hopefully we won't have any of those for a while, so no.

Change the Reid and Brown in my post to Mathew Scarlett and Brian Lake if it makes you sleep easier. There are numerous Reid or Brown quality defenders taken from anywhere in the draft. I was merely suggesting we need to find one player of that caliber from within our young KPPs. If we can't then we might have a problem.

 

[Righteo]

Hopefully we won't have any of those for a while, so no.

Change the Reid and Brown in my post to Mathew Scarlett and Brian Lake if it makes you sleep easier. There are numerous Reid or Brown quality defenders taken from anywhere in the draft. I was merely suggesting we need to find one player of that caliber from within our young KPPs. If we can't then we might have a problem.

Of our young KPD Sibosado looks the most likely to fill that role, but he is athletic and skillful too so if he came on he would cut opposition fowards up going the other way IMO, much like Scarlett in his prime.

 

[Kickett Punches Read]

i honestly believe that when pav retires, morabito will be moved to the CHF role. he is touted as a mid, but i reckon he would be the perfect replacement for the great man. nobody else seems to mention/agree with that.

 

[Avid_Avenger]

Of our young KPD Sibosado looks the most likely to fill that role, but he is athletic and skillful too so if he came on he would cut opposition fowards up going the other way IMO, much like Scarlett in his prime.

I agree, really high hopes for Sibo but he is as yet untried. He reminds me a lot of McPharlin actually - Luke likes to run off his player and create as well but will lockdown if necessary. I think Sibo will make a show of it this year if he can stay injury-free.

 

[yakka man]

i honestly believe that when pav retires, morabito will be moved to the CHF role. he is touted as a mid, but i reckon he would be the perfect replacement for the great man. nobody else seems to mention/agree with that.

He's got too much talent to play in the forward line full time. If we are struggling in a game or he wants a rest he can pinch hit in the forward line, but with his speed and size he could be way more damaging as a midfielder. + his kicking is awful at the moment

 

[Kickett Punches Read]

average age is highly overrated IMO. we recruited ballantyne, barlow, JVB, Silvagni, Faulks.... all of them will play next year and jack up our average age, but in reality they have played around 60 AFL games between them. it is average games played that makes the difference

 

[yakka man]

average age is highly overrated IMO. we recruited ballantyne, barlow, JVB, Silvagni, Faulks.... all of them will play next year and jack up our average age, but in reality they have played around 60 AFL games between them. it is average games played that makes the difference

Thats right. We have one player who has played over 200 games (Pav). Four players who have played between 150-200 (Mcpharlin, Grover, Sandi and Mcphee). And four who have played between 100-150 (Johnno, Hayden, Mundy and Schammer.

That's not much experience compared to the other teams. Especially when the majority of the rest havn't played 50 AFL games yet.

 

[theGav56]

I

Hopefully we won't have any of those for a while, so no.

Change the Reid and Brown in my post to Mathew Scarlett and Brian Lake if it makes you sleep easier. There are numerous Reid or Brown quality defenders taken from anywhere in the draft. I was merely suggesting we need to find one player of that caliber from within our young KPPs. If we can't then we might have a problem.

Scarlett was F/S so your examples are not hitting the mark, especially when put up against the list of players we have drafted and failed to develop as KPPs. Notably early draft picks.

 

[yakamoto]

KPR's point regarding games played as opposed to players' age is a good one. In the season just gone there were three clubs with a realistic chance of winning the flag - Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood. From memory, pretty vague at this stage, the average age of their finals teams was 25+, 25+ and 23+. The average age amongst the also runs was, in general, significantly less than 25. A comparison of team structure on a games played basis might be interesting if anyone can be bothered.
On another tack, KPPs are probably not worth worrying about in a draft. They are rapidly going the way of big ruckmen - and dodos.

 

[Jezzitizle]

KPR's point regarding games played as opposed to players' age is a good one. In the season just gone there were three clubs with a realistic chance of winning the flag - Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood. From memory, pretty vague at this stage, the average age of their finals teams was 25+, 25+ and 23+. The average age amongst the also runs was, in general, significantly less than 25. A comparison of team structure on a games played basis might be interesting if anyone can be bothered.
On another tack, KPPs are probably not worth worrying about in a draft. They are rapidly going the way of big ruckmen - and dodos.

Thats a relief. I'll pass that on to our recruitment staff so they know not to bother

 

[yakamoto]

The game's changing faster even than the Steves can dump Fremantle's icons overboard.

 

[SHill Shall]

In the season just gone there were three clubs with a realistic chance of winning the flag - Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood. From memory, pretty vague at this stage, the average age of their finals teams was 25+, 25+ and 23+. The average age amongst the also runs was, in general, significantly less than 25.

But that's exactly the point. I confidently predict that our list age has bottomed out with most of the deadwood pruned and the bulk of the young players in place. We can now look forward to lower list turnover and maturation towards a premiership. Should be right at peak by 2012/2013, just before Pav and Sandy presumably fall off their perch. Going to be fun seeing the window slowly open.

By the way, Collingwood is probably the exception that proves your rule!

 

[Avid_Avenger]

I

Scarlett was F/S so your examples are not hitting the mark, especially when put up against the list of players we have drafted and failed to develop as KPPs. Notably early draft picks.

Forgot about Scarlett (God Geelong have had some steals!) but you're missing the point. My point was we need to find someone of that quality from within our young KPPs when McPharlin goes. Lake was taken in the 5th round so it can be done and we certainly have promising prospects with Faulks, Sibo and Silvagni. You need one player of McPharlin's ability to hold a defense together. If we can't find one within our young KPP stocks then we'll probably have a problem going forward. Then again another JA might fall off a tree and land in our lap.

And please don't remind me of the number of KPPs we have taken early that were complete spuds. The quicker we put those behind us, the better.

 

[estibador]

On another tack, KPPs are probably not worth worrying about in a draft. They are rapidly going the way of big ruckmen - and dodos.

And yet our big ruckman is the most valuable and influential player in our whole squad.

 

[theGav56]

I just don't buy it. Sandi and Pav out of our side and we are less than ordinary. And one MacPharliin is not enough.

Quick question; if KPPs are unimportant, why did the Premiers just recruit Tarrant given the have adequate players at both ends of the ground, plus depth waiting in the wings?

Secondary question; if big ruckman are going the way of the dodo, why did they recruit Jolly (who was pivotal to their success)?

 

[greatgatsby]

I just don't buy it. Sandi and Pav out of our side and we are less than ordinary. And one MacPharliin is not enough.

Quick question; if KPPs are unimportant, why did the Premiers just recruit Tarrant given the have adequate players at both ends of the ground, plus depth waiting in the wings?

Secondary question; if big ruckman are going the way of the dodo, why did they recruit Jolly (who was pivotal to their success)?

"less than ordinary" - don't think so. Weaker yes, but take out Swan and Pendlebury and the reigning premiers have an ordinary midfield, and take out Buddy and Roughead and the Hawks are condemned to bottom 8.

Collingwood didn't 'recruit' Tarrant - he fell into their lap (btw Jack Anthony has as much talent as Tarrant had at the same age and because he can kick may actually succeed as a key forward).

The real point re ruckman is that only class specimens really influence contests. Otherwise, like most of the league when they play us, you're just aiming to contain damage. The Pies got Jolly, who is good and professional but not great, to fill a hole - looks like genius now because it turns out they had the rest of the puzzle.

I'm not sure how many KPPs we are meant to be stocking up; we have a goal-to-goal line and at least 2-3 promising kids. It would be lovely to have a stock of three AFL-ready CHF but it ain't realistic.

In the end it's about class in the midfield and modern tactics. If you have the best midfield and an appropriate game plan you can expect to play in GFs. I happen to think we are building a mid that can be in that category by 2012. And our game plan based on skill and a high level of efficiency is the way to go (and which Jack's potential to kick 4 from 7-8 possessions fits perfectly).

 

[Scham]

There's no doubt that we'll trade for and draft KPP's over the next couple of years.