Liston Stakes Day

[OverRated]

Fixed Odds are up on tab website.

Vain - Zizou($3) to fight it out with murtajill. Not much between them but maybe zizou for me. Diplomatic force is a good horse too.

Quezette - The slipper winner returns. Interesting races with sleek chasis($3.10) and some other smart ones returning. I will be watching this one. Maybe rose ceremony($12) each way.

Premiere - Mentality($2.50) is top class and should be able to win here. Only danger i think is camirilla with 9.5kgs less than mentality and german chocolate($5) who is in top form.

RUn to the Rose - Lisson Grove($8) won a good race in adelaide last start and zupaone came out and won on the weekend. Have to stick with it. Cent per cent($10) is a very good horse too.

Liston - I was lown away by the ease of Apache Cats($2.25) win last start against a gun in Haradasun. Must be on it here. Super horse below the mile. LOAD UP!

Cockram - Universal Queen all day! ($2.90) on fixed odds now. Get on before it drops to $2. Best bet of the day!

 

[sethlad]

Fixed Odds are up on tab website.
Cockram - Universal Queen all day! ($2.90) on fixed odds now. Get on before it drops to $2. Best bet of the day!

Have you got a Centrebet account?

$3.30 available Universal Queen
$4 Zizou
$3.50 Sleek Chassis
$16 Rose Ceremony

$9 Lisson Grove
$12 Cent per Cent

seth

 

[Lockyer24]

My early (and detailed!) thoughts...

Caulfield

Race 1 - Wide open one so I'm inclined to look at a trifecta I think. On class 1 Jukebox Johnny is a standout, having run closeup to Caulfield Cup chance Blutigeroo. However, form thus far has been average, although heavy/dead tracks are clearly its downfall. 3 Magnetic is lightly raced however keeps improving and answering the challenge, that said it hasn't beaten much. Has hit the line strongly though each time. 6 Dane Empire is another on its best form will be right in it, and will be better for the first up run. 8 Tradesmans Choice just plugs away but ran a very good race against Magnetic last time, and has a weight advantage this time in. 2 Lancettier is the pick of Hayes two, and he more often than not wins the first race. That said I won't be suprised if Willo rides the other to a shock win.
Trifecta - 1,3/1,3,8/1,2,3,6,8

Race 2 - Watch the betting on 2 Expunge and 3 Mettre En Jeu, but I think 4 Rubiscent last win was full of promise, and will win better races than this. Newitt is aboard and while Im at it he might be a good bet for the jockeys challenge.
Win - 4, Froggy for Jockeys Challenge!

Race 3 - Nice little race won easily by Haradasun last year. Better field though and a few chances this time. 1 Zizou is a consistent performer from all the big 2YO races of last year without breaking through. Willo will be rabid for a win by this stage Saturday. 2 Murtajill is of equal ability but I suspect might have a bit more of the X factor - although this is the Melbourne way of going now. 3 Shrewd Rhythm is no spud either and has just a credible record. 4 Diplomatic Force is the danger runner
10 Green Mankini has a fabolous name, but its maiden run was very good, worth blackbooking and is my outside chance to sneak into the placings.
Win 1, Trifecta 1/3,4/2,3,4,10

Race 4 - I suspect a lot of money will come in for the top 2 as per the previous race (the numbering is based on prizemoney to date afterall) 1 Forensics and 2 Sleek Chassis considering these two brilliant fillies took the major 2YO races last year. I am a big fan of the Lion Hunter breeds though so my Slipper tip 3 Chinchilla Rose will get another chance. Danny O'Brien is its new trainer and along with the Pins sired ones he seems to be getting quite a collection of both. Like Gold Edition should be an out and out sprinter only while the top two might be embarking on Guineas/Tous Guineas campaigns over longer distances, so might not be fully wound up. Speculative bet!
Win 3

Race 5 - I've been waiting a while for this one to come to Melbourne and it's here, 6 Tenshi coming off the back of a last to first win in Adelaide 3 wks ago. Was not far off in some unlucky runs up in the Brisbane carnival. This is her best distance, and for form reference has taken it up to Growl from the Hayes camp previously. Nicely weighted.
Win - 6*

Race 6 - Like the rest of the world I think 1 Apache Cat is the winner, with only possibly a wound up 3 Pompeii Ruler a chance to knock him off, which he isn't Im told. (although this could be a ruse, he won this last year) I'm warming to 6 Marasco and will be wrapped if my Caulfield Cup horse 9 Maldivian sneaks a place, which it is a fair chance to do in its first race at this level.
Win 1, Place 9

Race 7 - Good race with a few handy types resuming - a battle between some sprinters and middle distancers over 1200. 5 Chiack has looked out of sorts but is right in this at its best, hopefully gets a non-heavy track. 8 Bon Hoffa is another danger, very talented horse and has won 2/3 first up and 2/2 this distance. 9 Jennings is a lightly raced sprinter, think its had problems but will most likely start favourite. 15 Blitz'Em Riley is in the same boat. Think the last two sprinters mentioned will be favoured, but wont be suprised at all to see the two mid distancers knock them off. If 18 Art House gets a run might be gwise to chuck in also.
Box Trifecta 5,8,9,15

Race 8 - Like the first race of the day a wide open one despite the obvious pick 1 Universal Queen who should just win based on her best. She can be up and down though so there is hope. You can throw a blanket over 10 Amarazetti 11 Jacqueline Rouge 12 Bellini Rose 15 Cancanelle as honest chances. 4 Permaiscuous at her best would be a chance but hard to overlook her fading efforts last time in. Won't win but one of the most promising middle distance mares 2 Brom Felinity should put in an eye catcher.
Another race for a trifecta.
Trifecta 1,11,15/1,11,12,15/1,4,10,11,12,15

 

[Ricketts]

Vain:

Thinking Zizou here, but won't back him at those odds. I think he might be better over 1100m than Murtajill, Shrewd Rhythm and Purrealist.

Quezette:

I'll have a bit each-way on Bel Mer, thought it ran quite well 1st-up and might be fitter than the big names that contested big races in the Autumn. Has a lighter weight also.

Liston:

Certainly looks a two-horse-race, i prefer Apache Cat, doubtful if i'll back him though.

Race #7:

Chiack interests me here, wonder what his price will be? He cost me a bit in his last few runs though.

Cockram:

Universal Queen listed at $4.50 in The Age here (yes i know they're never right) quickly opened up tab.com.au to check if she was anything like that price, meh, only $2.50 or something.

 

[sethlad]

Have you got a Centrebet account?
$3.30 available Universal Queen

Heavily supported overnight,now $2.40

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Yes, Universal Queen looks the winner of the last, but very short now. For value I like Storm Signal for the place ($5 with Centrebet).

Others likely bets (depending on track):

R1 - Magnetic
R2 - Rubiscent (unless he's too short or there's significant money for Mettre en Jeu or Expunge)
R3 -?
R4 - Chinchilla Rose
R5 - Speedalot or maybe Danevade if he gets in and it's not too wet
R6 -Apache Cat and Marasco quinella - will pay very little but looks safe
R7 - Monahan Tweed or Stanzout
R8 - Storm Signal for a place. Maybe 1,3,12, 15 and 16 in a tri

 

[oreos]

R1 Magnetic
R2 Rubiscent
R3 Diplomatic Force
R4 Forensics
R5 Kalashani Star
R6 Apache Cat
R7 Blitz'em Riley, Stanzout, Bon Hoffa
R8 Universal Queen

Will be loading up on the daily double of Apache Cat/UQueen.
Really like Blitz'em Riley and Diplomatic Force as well.

Quaddie- F/1,6/8,9,11,15/1

Good Luck all

 

[angus6]

sleek chassis is a horse to watch this spring. there are only 3 3year olds that are under $101 for the cox plate at the moment and he is one of them at $71. Big fan after his diamond win.

The other horse to watch is camarilla. she is the only 3 year old that has been nominated for the cox plate, oaks and derby this spring. Is racing in sydney against mentality and with the light weight could be the horse to cause the upset. Is equal fav of the 3 year olds in cox plate betting at $35.

Liston looks to be a super race. I said at the start of the week i liked the cat but everyone is know spruiking marasco. and pompeii ruler is one of my favs so its a hard race to choose.

good luck punting

 

[Disrespect_16]

My tips for tomorrow:

Caufield

R1) Lancettier - Liked his last start run over the 1400m at Caufield. He ran on very nicely. Is a sharp rise in distance, but he will appreciate it. Ran 2nd to Polar Bear on Melb Cup Day last year over 1800m, so his best is up to this. D Holland has a 2kg claim too. EW

R3) Shrewd Rhythm - Gone for a bit of value here, Murtajil is obviously the hotpot with Zizou not too far behind and Diplomatic Force also in the market. IMO, little seperates the top 3 and Shrewd Rhythm showed last campaign that he definitely has the speed to compete with the best. Murtajil has to contend with the other way of going and along with Zizou may not be as wired for this race as SR. EW again.

R4) Probably won't be backing in this race, but think a fresh Sleek Chassis is going to be very hard to beat.

R5) Looks to be a lottery and probably one to miss, but if you're travelling ok, I'd go with the exposed form and back Speedalot. Good win last start over the same trip against some smart ones in similar grade. Magistra Delecta is also a chance from the 1 gate.

R6) - Marasco is the one I think. Apache Cat will rightfully start favourite, but I think he has shown in the past that he has struggled against the top WFA performers. If Marasco brings his A-game, I think Apache Cat will be outclassed. Maybe Better should be running on and I'l throw him in for 3rd on the back of a big run. 1) Marasco
2) Apache Cat
3) Maybe Better

R7) - Can't go past Blitz Em Riley. Has looked impressive and seems to be one that will just keep stepping up. In his last start, he defeated Muzdaher, who franked that form with a dominant performance at Sandown when back from a short spell. Drawn well and should run a big race. Monahan Tweed should also be prominent and is generally over the odds for such a consistent performer. Loves the 1200m and will be better for the 1st up 4th. He will be thereabouts as usual. Quinella or roving trifecta the two.

R8) Universal Queen looks the one. She will be very hard to beat and looks like too classy over the 1200m for the others. I do like Devil Moon to run alright though. Was only beaten 3.3 lengths behind Universal Queen in the Sangster and does gain a 2kg swing. Bad draw will make it tough and Rodd will have to slot her in handy. UQ is the one they want though, so she must be firing and her best form looks extremely hard to beat.

For those that enojy a punt on the Jockey Challenge, Clair Lindop has a nice set of rides at Morphetville. Victory Chant looks like a 'lock' in the 1st and she has another 4 rides with genuine claims.

Good luck to all tomorrow/today

 

[eastaugh36]

Big day today.
I'll be more inclined just to watch without betting and try and pick some out to follow over the spring.

A couple at Morphettvile have caught my eye.

1-3 Cosmic Commander - have heard the trainer has high hopes for this one and as been kept in private to trial.

8-6 Our Dior - liked how it worked home well last time

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Best bet of the day for me:
Race 7 No 15 Blitz em Riley - will need just an ounce of luck, but at least won't be pratted 3 wide as per its previous 2 starts.
Could be anything this horse

 

[danielz_23]

Excellent analysis. Looking at the Quaddie and its driving me crazy. Big fields and plenty of chances. It will be a big one today but as with every other week its unlikely I will hit the right combination!!

My early (and detailed!) thoughts...

Caulfield
Race 5 - I've been waiting a while for this one to come to Melbourne and it's here, 6 Tenshi coming off the back of a last to first win in Adelaide 3 wks ago. Was not far off in some unlucky runs up in the Brisbane carnival. This is her best distance, and for form reference has taken it up to Growl from the Hayes camp previously. Nicely weighted.
Win - 6*

Race 6 - Like the rest of the world I think 1 Apache Cat is the winner, with only possibly a wound up 3 Pompeii Ruler a chance to knock him off, which he isn't Im told. (although this could be a ruse, he won this last year) I'm warming to 6 Marasco and will be wrapped if my Caulfield Cup horse 9 Maldivian sneaks a place, which it is a fair chance to do in its first race at this level.
Win 1, Place 9

Race 7 - Good race with a few handy types resuming - a battle between some sprinters and middle distancers over 1200. 5 Chiack has looked out of sorts but is right in this at its best, hopefully gets a non-heavy track. 8 Bon Hoffa is another danger, very talented horse and has won 2/3 first up and 2/2 this distance. 9 Jennings is a lightly raced sprinter, think its had problems but will most likely start favourite. 15 Blitz'Em Riley is in the same boat. Think the last two sprinters mentioned will be favoured, but wont be suprised at all to see the two mid distancers knock them off. If 18 Art House gets a run might be gwise to chuck in also.
Box Trifecta 5,8,9,15

Race 8 - Like the first race of the day a wide open one despite the obvious pick 1 Universal Queen who should just win based on her best. She can be up and down though so there is hope. You can throw a blanket over 10 Amarazetti 11 Jacqueline Rouge 12 Bellini Rose 15 Cancanelle as honest chances. 4 Permaiscuous at her best would be a chance but hard to overlook her fading efforts last time in. Won't win but one of the most promising middle distance mares 2 Brom Felinity should put in an eye catcher.
Another race for a trifecta.
Trifecta 1,11,15/1,11,12,15/1,4,10,11,12,15

 

[Lockyer24]

Had an average day.

First race had a box tri and bloody Derringer (who a mate backed straight out!) tipped me out.

Got Rubiscent at 3's with the bookies, thought that was an okay start.

Zizou and Tenshi had fizzers.

Apache Cat won and Maldivian placed as expected! Got first four but it paid nothing.

Was tossing up between Bon Hoffa and Blitz'Em Riley in the 2nd last, the fact frontrunner/on pacers were winning led me to back B'E R. Cost me dearly.

Get out stakes impossible to pick, as usual!

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Had an average day.
Was tossing up between Bon Hoffa and Blitz'Em Riley in the 2nd last, the fact frontrunner/on pacers were winning led me to back B'E R. Cost me dearly.

Get out stakes impossible to pick, as usual!

Average also.
Riley was extremely disappointing, was just never in the race & looked a different horse being scrubbed up well before the turn.

 

[haywood jablome]

Started of shit and flew home late in the day, came out on top. It wasn't looking good early though..

 

[Lockyer24]

I would back Hayes/Willo in every race next week, they will be making up for todays stinker.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

I would back Hayes/Willo in every race next week, they will be making up for todays stinker.

Take them or Freedmans.
This time next week we will by swimming in $$$.

 

[haywood jablome]

Take them or Freedmans.
This time next week we will by swimming in $$$.

Moody had a damn good day, 4 winners I think it was

 

[danielz_23]

• For the second week I got the first 3 legs of the quaddie and missed the last. this week I covered with bets in the last leg. So came out in front. Tried the same last week but didnt have Miss La Tar... helped that Universal queen was such a short placed favourite in covering this week. (ie the rest were huge odds)
  
• Should have considered betting per race today... got Blessed in the first leg at $22.70 & had Flash Coupe who ran a place at $9.20
  
• Quaddie paid $14,750 - had Universal Queen in the last which was for a $900 quaddie... and Causeway Lass for a $7,500 quaddie. Quite obvious that most punters went field into Apache Cat into field in Universal Queen. Could have been a massive massive quaddie if Apache Cat lost I feel (where I had the other two)

FYI - my quaddie picks were: 5,6,11,19 - 1,2,6 - 4,7,8,14,15 - 1,13

 

[Lockyer24]

Heard someone go mental when Storm Signal got up - wonder if they had it one out for the quaddie?

Anyone see that bloke give Brereton a spray audible to the whole racetrack after he got done on Diplomatic Force.

Storm boys were also there in numbers..then saw them later on the tram...must think they have the NRL wrapped up.

 

[haywood jablome]

Anyone see that bloke give Brereton a spray audible to the whole racetrack after he got done on Diplomatic Force.

Tell me about it... I was on Diplomatic Force, shit ride by Brereton... I reckon it would have shat in if he hadn't of taken up so many horses assholes... Where I was we had a few people including me cheering for Storm Signal

 

[eastaugh36]

Pompeii Ruler wouldn't have lost any admirers. Was cruising at the turn,untouched and ran on well enough first up. Considering Marasco had the fitness edge, it was a great run. Will he go to the cox plate or caulfield cup though?

 

[plays tall 1]

I was in the restaurant overlooking the track and a table nearby got the quaddie - they were pretty happy. I was left to rue backing storm signal for the place only

 

[angus6]

it was a pretty good days racing.

i didnt win on the day but with all these good horses coming through its going to be a great spring.

my bets were i had s/rythem into sleek chassis running double
dont know what it would have paid but it would have been a nice collect.
And a mate told me that that horse would run a big race
Greart run from sleek chassis.

Took a quaddie and picked blessed. Had four horses picked out and when i told my old man about blessed he talked me out of backing it.
L Nolan and Moody have a great record with horses first up.

The Cat imo was always going to win. Pompeii ruler would not have lost any admirers and imo i think he is set to win the c/cup.

Sin bin blitzen reily

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Pompeii Ruler wouldn't have lost any admirers. Was cruising at the turn,untouched and ran on well enough first up. Considering Marasco had the fitness edge, it was a great run. Will he go to the cox plate or caulfield cup though?

Amazed no one has mentioned Maldivian (thought you would be all over it - with the SA connection).
It was the incredible run in the race, couldn't believe it was taking on Live In Vain. Still managed to hang on & beat the likes of Pompeii Ruler.

The bookies did, slashed in all futures markets.