Longshots Thread

[Poizun]

We have a shorties thread? Im sure there alot of people that love having very small nibbles on long shots!!

Start the ball rollling @ Shepparton Race 4, No.7 Sticks. By no means the best dog in the race, but has been completely luckless of late, which has been due to its bad beginners. Its form at the track is not horrid, even tho its numeric form looks that way and its only win came from an inside draw.

With that being said, it is monstrous odds, around the 30-1 it will start, and ill be having a nibble e-w....

Strike rate here obviously wont be anywhere near the 1.20 thread, if not about 20-1 less probably, but thats why they are long shots!!

 

[Poizun]

Good start. Actually jumped better than it had in its last 3 starts but got skittled out and fell to last looking for the fence!! 8,8,7,7 last 4 boxes. Lesson learnt. Wait till its drawn in

0/1 =)

 

[Cuzz09]

Im going to put $20 on an Adelaide Crows/Gold Coast Titans AFL/NRL double.

paying $132 for a return of $2640.

Got a feeling about Adelaide even though they havent had a good pre season and titans were around the mark.

Ya never know

 

[SmothOperRaider]

It'll be tough to get a run going on these, but you only need to hit on one in nine at the least when you're going double figure odds.

Any rules to the thread, ie must be over $10?

Would be good for blokes to post before the bet too, not hindsight heroes.

Would also be good if Nuke came back around these parts to give us some of his racing long shots

 

[Poizun]

Good idea.

Any bets over $10 only. Multis including a few $5 shots don't really count. Looking for SINGLE RESULT LONGSHOTS.

Also, this isnt sa thread trying to get a "run" on, its more looking for the odd bolter here and there for punters who are fans of backing the roughies...

And your right, backing something at tens, 1 in 10 is all you need to break even...

as they say in punting....VALUE!!

 

[half_back_flank]

It might be a bit touch and go, but i like the number 1 (Best chord) at Shep race 10.

Isn't a quick starter and therefore has found a heap of trouble in his last couple of races. Has a decent record from the inside draws (5 starts, 3 seconds) and hopefully won't get too far back as there isn't alot of pace in this race.

Apologies if he starts under 10, watchdog have him at 16 dollars but Hotdogs has him third.

 

[tazlgnd]

tough with the greyhounds cos the price can be halved in about a minute

i remember one race i got on a dog at 40-1 with betting closing in about 30 seconds, i rated it about a 10-1 shot and it came in to 15-1 inthe last seconds of betting

 

[tazlgnd]

just like jenny isnt a bad bet here


yes it is.

 

[roospur]

Nice thread Poizun shoud be some fun.
Like a couple tomorrow at Flemington at odds.
Race 5 no 11 Tell the Story currently about 40-1. Backed it the last 2 starts and it's won well, up in class but mares in form are good bets.
Also like Race 8 no 11 Zagreb Tough race but very open finshed close up in this race last year. Frustrating horse but I'll be having a nibble anyway.
Should be at least 20-1.

 

[roospur]

It might be a bit touch and go, but i like the number 1 (Best chord) at Shep race 10.

Isn't a quick starter and therefore has found a heap of trouble in his last couple of races. Has a decent record from the inside draws (5 starts, 3 seconds) and hopefully won't get too far back as there isn't alot of pace in this race.

Apologies if he starts under 10, watchdog have him at 16 dollars but Hotdogs has him third.

Not bad mate came 2nd had a little go e/w $6.60 place

 

[half_back_flank]

It might be a bit touch and go, but i like the number 1 (Best chord) at Shep race 10.

Isn't a quick starter and therefore has found a heap of trouble in his last couple of races. Has a decent record from the inside draws (5 starts, 3 seconds) and hopefully won't get too far back as there isn't alot of pace in this race.

Apologies if he starts under 10, watchdog have him at 16 dollars but Hotdogs has him third.

2nd. Stoked with that, paid extremely well for the place, NSW being the lowest tote at 4.80.

 

[Schmucta]

I like to look for long shots in sports such as basketball, and also a roughie in the footy leagues, but they won't be anywhere near $10.

I'd say you can pick a decent roughie in a sports match at $3+, that is what I like to get on.

 

[The Dawes]

A couple tomorrow at Flemington.

Rock Classic in the Guineas - currently $21 fixed odds.
Growl in the Aust Cup - currently $41 fixed odds with iasbet.

 

[tazlgnd]

harness racing is good for this sort of thing

MARYBOROUGH R4

Prince Calaf

good early speed and no without a chance

 

[SmothOperRaider]

Zarita looks juicy in the Aus Cup ($16), as does Sir Hallowell in the Randwick Gunieas ($10).

 

[tazlgnd]

SILKARI LASS in race 7 at maryborough

the other roughie i am looking at on the card

 

[Poizun]

harness racing is good for this sort of thing

MARYBOROUGH R4

Prince Calaf

good early speed and no without a chance

On time form, the pole marker and the #8 look blowout chances for the multiples..

 

[tazlgnd]

well the roughie was there, we just selected around it!

 

[_SYT_]

as does Sir Hallowell in the Randwick Gunieas ($10).

I/we can hope.. it would be awesome to see him win some of these big Eastern 3yo races since I've been following him for ages. Biggest query coming into this would have to be Corey given the boot for Carbery (who isn't my fave Perth jock) - the Randwick mile is a tough one for a first timer, let alone in a G1. Fingers crossed mate!

 

[Poizun]

SILKARI LASS in race 7 at maryborough

the other roughie i am looking at on the card

Impressive selection taz. Paid something like 12 bucks a place and if you could somehow snag the winner (virtually impossible since it had not gone quicker than 2.03 for a mile rate in its last 5 or 6 runs), the exotics paid huge with the trifecta paying OVER 42k. Obviously someone only got a partial of that...

 

[tazlgnd]

i have a little theory on the harness that has served me well, although i rarely punt on them.


spewin it ran 2nd in a way 88.80 the win but cant complain at a $12 placing

 

[tazlgnd]

dont mind sushi sushi in race 8 at melton, donno what the odds will be but i would imagine over $10

 

[tazlgnd]

Race 5 Gold coast

JOANS PRIDE the big roughie

ARK DE JEANNE is my top pick, although im not sure it will remain at 11-1

 

[Poizun]

Race 5 Gold coast

JOANS PRIDE the big roughie

ARK DE JEANNE is my top pick, although im not sure it will remain at 11-1

On times Joans Price has no hope. Her mile rates over the longer trips at Redcliffe are disgraceful, where as Silkari Lass actually had some good times, but for some reason keeps getting sent out huge odds.

Ark De Jeanna probably has the best current form in the whole field and on current time form the pole marker would be the one I would be backing each-way and for class, she is a Machstar is that.

Verdict - Im backing Marg E-W and hope a price holds up

 

[tazlgnd]

glad i read that, jumped on ark de jeanne but pipped on the line