Longshots Thread

[Poizun]

Decent longshot trifecta Scone race 5..

26/03/201016:0826/03/2010CR57,8,9-7,8,9,11,14-F (FLEXI 11.3636%)PTrifecta15$15.00$718.12

 

[win1soon]

Rosehill Race 6 SOPHISTICATION currently around $16's think u might get better tomorrow. good e/w hope imo

 

[roospur]

Run for Naara tomorrow at Rosehill in the guineas. Just backed it fixed at 15's, think it's really looking for the 2000mtrs now and the favourites aren't proven like her at the distance.

 

[muttley45]

wind shear @ caulfield race 7

lohan @ rosehill race 5

illuminates @ rosehill race 8

any 2 of these 3 will produce me a very juicy parlay

 

[roospur]

Keen on Happy angel in the next at caulfield.

 

[Poizun]

wind shear @ caulfield race 7

lohan @ rosehill race 5

illuminates @ rosehill race 8

any 2 of these 3 will produce me a very juicy parlay

ILLUMINATES OR BEADED FOR 1.9% of big6 PLZZZZZZZZ

 

[Poizun]

ILLUMINATES OR BEADED FOR 1.9% of big6 PLZZZZZZZZ

**** you PAT cost me 4.4k ..Hope your ****ing happy

 

[fredd]

not really a long shot as such, but i'm not sure where else to post this...

for anyone who follow's the f1's, sportsbet have a Mercedes GP v Renault group for todays race. This group includes Nico Rosberg at ridiculous odds off $2.70...

Mercedes have a far better car than Renault and barring mechanical fault or crashes both cars will beat the Renault's comfortably. Rosberg has out qualified his team mate (Schumacher), been consistently quicker than him all weekend and beat him in the only round so far this season, but for some unknown reason is paying $2.70 compared to Schumacher's $1.45.

This is made even more crazy by the fact that you can get $1.93 for Schumacher head to head with Rosberg!!

 

[adii_7]

Carlton
41.00
Port Adelaide
51.00

last man standing ?

 

[half_back_flank]

Two dogs i like at odds at Ballarat tonight.

R6 - Regal Cadet. Can show pace early, and is well drawn. Form isn't great at the moment, but i think he can turn it around.

R9 - Sasha Jet. Consistently quick starter who should lead, will need a little luck to hold them out tho.

EDIT: Sasha Jet is at Bendigo, Regal Cadet dead last, copped a nasty check and didn't look 100% down the straight.

 

[half_back_flank]

Two dogs i like at odds at Ballarat tonight.

R6 - Regal Cadet. Can show pace early, and is well drawn. Form isn't great at the moment, but i think he can turn it around.

R9 - Sasha Jet. Consistently quick starter who should lead, will need a little luck to hold them out tho.

EDIT: Sasha Jet is at Bendigo, Regal Cadet dead last, copped a nasty check and didn't look 100% down the straight.

BOOOM! paying 25s

 

[asanque]

BOOOM! paying 25s

Thanks mate, good tip

 

[half_back_flank]

Thanks mate, good tip

No problem mate, glad i could share the winnings

 

[The Dawes]

Got a couple for Randwick tomorrow.

Race 7. Typhoon Zed, currently $41 fixed odds - very smart horse in an even field with reasonable form at a silly price.

Shellscrape, hoping it might benefit from the freshen since the Newmarket. Way over the odds if anywhere near his best - currently @ $26 fixed.

Race 8. Cullen Castle, 3 starts 1st up for 2 wins and a 3rd. First up tomorrow against a field with more than it's share of stayers resuming @ $41 fixed.

 

[GoodesStuff]

What percentage of your bankroll do you guys typically use for a long shot (ie. longer than 10-1) ???

 

[shizzle]

Race 8. Cullen Castle, 3 starts 1st up for 2 wins and a 3rd. First up tomorrow against a field with more than it's share of stayers resuming @ $41 fixed.

I don't mind Cullen Castle, think it's as good a chance as any in a very open race.

Another one I might look at EW is Caulfield R6-N6 Life to the Full, hasn't been far away in it's last 2 outings against some pretty handy horses.

 

[Cuzz09]

I had $5 on West Coast to win last night by 23-24 points @ $34

return $170

Long shot but had a vibe

 

[clivewaterhousen]

I had $5 on West Coast to win last night by 23-24 points @ $34

return $170

Long shot but had a vibe

funny

i had a minimal bet of eagles 29-30

spewing when they didnt get it, so close was paying $61

always sweeter counting the 61 grand winnings from a long shot

 

[shizzle]

Another one I might look at EW is Caulfield R6-N6 Life to the Full, hasn't been far away in it's last 2 outings against some pretty handy horses.

Didn't pay as much as I thought it might, not really a longshot eventually, but did it well.

 

[win1soon]

Bashfull girl and golden jaguar in adelaide. both around $21 on fixed odds

 

[whats_at_stake]

I placed $1 per innings (for two games) on the IPL first dismissal being a stumping at odds of $26. Given 3 of the 4 teams open with spinners the odds seemed really good. Worked out for one and got the $26. I checked more recently and the odds have dropped to $17.

 

[Oaksnaf]

What percentage of your bankroll do you guys typically use for a long shot (ie. longer than 10-1) ???

Depends on how you rate the runner.

If its rated at $2.50 and starts at $10, you will have $40 on it, based on $100 bets per race.
If its rated at $5.00 and starts at $10, you will have $20 on it, based on $100 bets per race.

I set my market bets to a maximum of 5%.

Which means, if my bank is $10,000. My maximum outlay will be $500. Which only really happens if all your runners at OVERS except for your bottom rater who starts at $1.20.


If you rate a runner the same, you should probably even bet heavier on it, when it runs at $10 compared to $3.50.

I just look at my markets, then compare the prices on the tote and betfair and bet accordingly.