Looking ahead

[Malifice]

^ Ok, I'll pretty much leave it at that.

Maybe it is just me, but your points and argument seem to be getting more and more unrealistic, while ignoring simple common sense.

GC17 is a reality mate. Players are going to walk from their clubs this year for money. We had better get used to it.

We can say trading Gibbs for Buddy, or Gibbs for Selwood+Ablett, or Gibbs for Riewoldt+Goddard+Montagna are all good trades for us, but what is the point when none of these trades will eventuate (even with your naive trading techniques)

Chill out man. The aggression and 'naive' comment isn't necessary. We're on the same side remember.

Consider it from the other perspective:

As of right now, Gibbs has yet to sign.

Yet he has had a contract in front of him for more than a few months.

It would be quite naive for any of us to suggest that Bryce hasn't gotten an offer from GC17 under his nose as well. He is just the sort of player they are looking for. And they dont have to give us anything by way of compensation to land him.

I would suggest that this is one of, if not THE main reason for his delay in signing.

What if that offer is for 200k a year more than he is currently getting at CFC? Money that CFC cant or wont match.

For a 21 year old that adds up to a lot of money over the next ten years (a 2 million dollar difference over the length of his career in fact).

Love of the club over money and all that Jazz is one thing, but lets get realistic here. Its a business. He will only play footy for another ten years and then its all over. He needs to set himself up now.

What if he decides to accept the GC offer in a few months?

Hopefully he notifies the club that he is leaving. Do we then:

a) play him in the 2's for being an ungrateful prick and take the compensation pick in two years from the AFL like smiling idiots?

or

b) contact Adelaide, see if they are prepared to offer identical $$$ to the GC's offer, then see if Gibbs is prepared to head back to SA instead of QLD if the money is the same, and then TRADE him for two first rounders... this year and not in 2 years time.

Its a no brainier for mine. Take the better deal. He's going anyway.

Adelaide's happy, we get better compensation and Gibbs is happy. GC17 can go **** themselves.

Any realistic trade involving Gibbs wouldn't be worth it.

How is the above scenario not realistic?

Im around 70% confident that Gibbs will leave this year FWIW. Thought the same thing about Judd when he left WCE. I'm also confident Ablett will head north.

Also FWIW Buddy and Roughy will both also get massive offers. If we can match those offers with $$$, convince the players to stay in Victoria for the same (or slightly more) coin, and actually give something to the Hawks better than the AFL's compensation pick then why the **** shouldn't we go after those players?

They ARE un-contracted after all.

And why is this unrealistic?

 

[CrippsonBlue]

GC17 is a reality mate. Players are going to walk from their clubs this year for money. We had better get used to it

What has that got to do with Gibbs? If he decides to go to them, end of discussion - no other team would be willing to match their offer, and even if they did, we would get screwed over in the trade.

I don't see what GC has anything to do with talks of trading Gibbs.

Chill out man. The aggression and 'naive' comment isn't necessary. We're on the same side remember

You'll have to let me know how to spot an unchilled poster some time. I don't try to belittle posters. Sorry, but it is naive to think a player will put the CFC's interests before their own. For us to use the GC as any sort of leverage in trade talks, this would need to happen.

That is not aggression - that is reality.

What if he decides to accept the GC offer in a few months

We would be more likely able to match the GC's offer than the Crows would, so if we can't match it, they won't match it.

If they somehow could, of course it would be more beneficial to deal with them. However, the Crows would still offer less than his worth, in which case, how will this at all benefit the club?

This wasn't the original point of the discussion. If you want to talk about Gibbs leaving us, it comes down to this - we would do our best to get max value for him, but it would ultimately be less than his worth.

No point in talking about what we may get - screwed over is the answer.

Again though, this was never the point.

Also FWIW Buddy and Roughy will both also get massive offers. If we can match those offers with $$$, convince the players to stay in Victoria for the same (or slightly more) coin, and actually give something to the Hawks better than the AFL's compensation pick then why the **** shouldn't we go after those players?

Rarely do players leave clubs to chase the money, and they don't need to because their clubs have plans in place (this is also highlighted by the number of star players having re-signed over the last year or so, knowing the extra dollars they could get from the GC)

If a player moves on his own accord, it is usually to move home interstate, or for more opportunities. Money usually gets worked out in the end (and if it doesn't get worked out, it is certainly not the big names that leave usually)

Also, the increase in our offer needs to be excessive. 100k would need to be the minimum. If you go too much over this, you then run the risk of over paying the player, and are just as likely to lose one of your own young stars when we cant match another teams offer in the following years.

The Hawks aren't stupid - their salary cap would have been planned around players like Buddy. The hawks would do a lot before losing Buddy - certainly enough to stop a team like us getting him.

This doesn't even consider the fact that Buddy would rather play for the Hawks, than for Carlton.

That is why it is unrealistic. (Roughead an outside chance maybe, but for the same reasons, unlikely I would say - also, not worth Gibbs IMO)

 

[BLUE BLEEDING]

Only just read the OP, that was disgusting.

 

[one eyed bluey]

It is shortsighted to claim a team is better, on the back of 2 (or 3) rounds.

If the Crows get beaten today, it doesn't make us a better team than them.

We played finals last year, while Freo were a long way off.

Freo clearly have the better form at the moment - it doesn't make them the better team. (to suggest form is the basis in determining the better team is certainly shortsighted)

They have a long way to go before proving that.



When has footy ever worked this way - come on, that is ridiculous logic.

If we continue to play with no intensity like we did last night, a lot of teams will beat us by 10 goals.

We won't dish that every week however.

I disagree. I think an in form team is a better team than a team who is better as a team but is not the better team as they're not the form team, but good teams are in form teams, generally speaking and ah oh...ooo no I've gone cross eyed....

 

[Malifice]

What has that got to do with Gibbs? If he decides to go to them, end of discussion - no other team would be willing to match their offer, and even if they did, we would get screwed over in the trade.

Im not so sure.

I don't see what GC has anything to do with talks of trading Gibbs.

Hes a young talented and uncontracted player. Has yet to sign. Its a factor in any talk about trading him surely?

Sorry, but it is naive to think a player will put the CFC's interests before their own. For us to use the GC as any sort of leverage in trade talks, this would need to happen.

Were not asking a player to put CFC's interests before thier own. We would be paying them quite handsomely. And reimbursing their clubs better than with just an AFL issued compensatory pick as well.

This wasn't the original point of the discussion. If you want to talk about Gibbs leaving us, it comes down to this - we would do our best to get max value for him, but it would ultimately be less than his worth.

Agree we would want more for him. I'm simply putting trying to reconcile the trading position of clubs later this year with GC17. Its going to be a different landscape.

Rarely do players leave clubs to chase the money,

Rarely do new teams enter the competition. And perhaps you missed the recent successful push for free agency.

Would Ablett be leaving for any other reason but the cash?

and they don't need to because their clubs have plans in place (this is also highlighted by the number of star players having re-signed over the last year or so, knowing the extra dollars they could get from the GC)

The kids that re-signed this year were simply getting the extra dollars from their own clubs rather than GC. They were simply being smart signing this year not loyal. Blokes like Ziebel would have jumped at the opportunity to sign far earlier than what would be considered normal for an AFL footballer... and likely for a lot more money than a 1st year player would ordinarily command.

Using market forces to improve your position. If this wasn't the case, they should sack their managers immediately.

I'm hoping this is all Gibbs manager is currently doing, and there isnt anything more nefarious in it than that.

If a player moves on his own accord, it is usually to move home interstate, or for more opportunities. Money usually gets worked out in the end (and if it doesn't get worked out, it is certainly not the big names that leave usually)

I think you'll find it a little different this year and next with GC17 and WSYD.

Ablett will go. Likely one of Buddy/ Roughy as well. Plus more than a few others. And I would not blame any of them.

Would you go north for an extra 250-350k a year? In a profession that forces you to retire in your early 30s at the latest... if injury doesn't wreck you first?

Its a business now man.

The Hawks aren't stupid - their salary cap would have been planned around players like Buddy. The hawks would do a lot before losing Buddy - certainly enough to stop a team like us getting him.

They'll lose one of their forwards this year. They simply wont be able to match both GC17's offers IMO. Similar to Geelong with Ablett and Selwood.

This doesn't even consider the fact that Buddy would rather play for the Hawks, than for Carlton.

Who do you reckon Ablett wants to play for?

And where do you reckon he will end up?

 

[CrippsonBlue]

We clearly have different views in regard to the GC entering the comp, and I still don't see what this has to do with talk of trading Gibbs by choice.

Not trying to be dismissive, but I'm happy to leave it at that.

 

[Gone Critical]

Who derailed this back onto topic. The other stuff was much more interesting.

 

[HARKER]

Who derailed this back onto topic. The other stuff was much more interesting.

"We clearly have different views in regard to the GC"
From the post before yours.

Secretive reference to you maybe?

 

[Gone Critical]

"We clearly have different views in regard to the GC"
From the post before yours.

Secretive reference to you maybe?

Maybe. Dont know if thats flattering or not.

Then again I dont have a Melb Uni oops sorry a University of Mellbourne LLB

 

[shell23]

I wonder if Rich will ever move home to WA that would be a massive blow for the lions.

 

[JuddFevGoal]

Maybe. Dont know if thats flattering or not.

Then again I dont have a Melb Uni oops sorry a University of Mellbourne LLB

Now now... no need to be a recidivist.

 

[thylacine60]

Now now... no need to be a recidivist.

Clear misuse of the word.

 

[BlueTouchPaper]

Probably why they stopped the Melbourne LLB!

 

[Onlyanopinion]

How much extra cap will the GC have?? If Ablett goes (becoming more of a reality everyday) and they are paying him the reported $1.5m p.a., do you really think they will have SO much extra cash to be able to put an offer on the table that will won't be able to match or get very close to for Gibbs? As it has been mentioned, judd's front-ended contract, stevo moving on, we wont be paying between 30%-50% of Fev contract...

And on the franklin/Roughead debate, i bet BOTH will stay, but if one goes, it will be franklin to GWS...

 

[jono25]

How much extra cap will the GC have?? If Ablett goes (becoming more of a reality everyday) and they are paying him the reported $1.5m p.a., do you really think they will have SO much extra cash to be able to put an offer on the table that will won't be able to match or get very close to for Gibbs? As it has been mentioned, judd's front-ended contract, stevo moving on, we wont be paying between 30%-50% of Fev contract...

And on the franklin/Roughead debate, i bet BOTH will stay, but if one goes, it will be franklin to GWS...

We are only paying 100k of Fev's contract this year and 50k the next two years.

Saves us 500k in salary cap this year and 550k next. Add 400k from Stevens and we have 900k for Roughy.

Yes we need to set aside $ for future stars but I remeber reading the highest paid Hawk was on 600k 12 months ago. So you would think 700k would get Roughy plus each year Judd costs less and less.

Rich to Gold Coast - not signed and been negotiating longer than Gibbs. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Malifice]

How much extra cap will the GC have??

An extra million in thier first year.

Takes them to just over 9 million next year to spend.

Plus around 50% of their starting list will be 1st year players and rookies (and thus on bugger all).

If Ablett goes (becoming more of a reality everyday) and they are paying him the reported $1.5m p.a., do you really think they will have SO much extra cash to be able to put an offer on the table that will won't be able to match or get very close to for Gibbs?

Yes. Yes I honestly do.

They will have the coin for 2-3 talented (read superstar players) plus another 6-12 genuine guns (uncontracted players like Gibbs and aquired in trades for one of thier plethora of 1st rounders).

Id put aside around 3 million aside for the 3 superstars and another 3 million for the traded/ un-contracted rest.

Will pick up another 3-4 discarded/depth players for buckleys via PSD. 500k tops.

Then add the 12 preselected 1st rounders they got last year and the half a dozen or so 1st rounders from this year to the half dozen rookie picks.

Thats around half thier list on around 100k -150k per year max. (around 2.5 million)

As it has been mentioned, judd's front-ended contract, stevo moving on, we wont be paying between 30%-50% of Fev contract...

We'll have the money to spare. Whether we are prepared to pay 'over the odds' for a particular player is another thing.

And on the franklin/Roughead debate, i bet BOTH will stay, but if one goes, it will be franklin to GWS...

If Roughy goes, the Hawks will be able to pay Franklin around a million a year. Should be enough.

And if Tassie is given the choice between losing one or the other, I know which way they would go.

Reckon Buddy stays.

 

[Malifice]

We are only paying 100k of Fev's contract this year and 50k the next two years.

Saves us 500k in salary cap this year and 550k next. Add 400k from Stevens and we have 900k for Roughy.

You can add CJ's guaranteed delisting and Juddys front ended contract on the downhill slope. Thats another 2-300k (minimum) there.

Money is not an issue if we wanted Roughy.

Yes we need to set aside $ for future stars but I remeber reading the highest paid Hawk was on 600k 12 months ago. So you would think 700k would get Roughy

We dont have to beat the Hawks offer. We have to Beat GC17's. Thats the tricky bit.

And (assuming he is on @ 400-600k at the moment) they would be offering him something in the vicinity of 750-850k IMO.

But if he is already leaving for the GC for... say 800k a year (a 250k hike in what he is on atm) its not unreasonable to suggest he would come to us for 850k.

Whether he is worth that to us, and what effects that kind of deal has on our future TPP is another thing altogether.

That said, he would come a lot cheaper this year than in any other year (save a year where we have pick 1 in the PSD). The Hawks trade him to us or lose him to GC17 for nothing more than a compensation pick... that cant even be used for another 2 years.

A first rounder NOW + choice of (Jacobs, Grigg ,Austin, or Walker) would seal it.

Rich to Gold Coast - not signed and been negotiating longer than Gibbs. Interesting times ahead.

Id laugh so loud if this happened.

Oh I would laugh so loud.

 

[jono25]

re Rich - I am not saying he will go at all. And I very much hope he stays. But at Christmas time I was told by a senior member of the Lions that his contract was "close". Nothing has happened since and we all know Rich loves surfing - GC would be a great place to live. It is no secret Brisbane has salary cap issues given all of their recruits so can't get near what GC would offer.

Very possible in my view....

 

[CrippsonBlue]

Money is not an issue if we wanted Roughy

If the Hawks lose him, consider why they lose him.

To build a strong premiership team, you need players who are willing to accept a bit less than they could get elsewhere, for the good of the team (much like the Cats, or Saints for instance)

When all your guys start hitting their prime, and putting the club under pressure with the cap, you need players that are loyal. If every player demands their worth, we will lose players.

We need to promote this sort of loyalty - not bring in guys like Roughead who obviously mustn't have any if he joined us.

When we got Judd, we were far from a premiership, and all our players were young. It was not crucial back then to promote such loyalty, but it is now. Our players will not be willing to accept less than their worth, when they see us bringing in other guys like Roughead, and over-paying them.

If we take Roughead from the Hawks, he takes away their salary cap concerns, and simply adds to ours.

Over paying him takes away all that spare cash for our young guys, and leaves us with no wriggle room (the figures you threw up were crazy for him)

The price of Roughead will be at least one of our young stars some time down the track - we cannot afford him in more ways than one.

I'm all for enticing another forward, but someone at the stage of say Hendo, that will cost a lot less, and keep the team together.

 

[BlueTongue]

If the Hawks lose him, consider why they lose him.

To build a strong premiership team, you need players who are willing to accept a bit less than they could get elsewhere, for the good of the team (much like the Cats, or Saints for instance)

When all your guys start hitting their prime, and putting the club under pressure with the cap, you need players that are loyal. If every player demands their worth, we will lose players.

We need to promote this sort of loyalty - not bring in guys like Roughead who obviously mustn't have any if he joined us.

When we got Judd, we were far from a premiership, and all our players were young. It was not crucial back then to promote such loyalty, but it is now. Our players will not be willing to accept less than their worth, when they see us bringing in other guys like Roughead, and over-paying them.

If we take Roughead from the Hawks, he takes away their salary cap concerns, and simply adds to ours.

Over paying him takes away all that spare cash for our young guys, and leaves us with no wriggle room (the figures you threw up were crazy for him)

The price of Roughead will be at least one of our young stars some time down the track - we cannot afford him in more ways than one.

I'm all for enticing another forward, but someone at the stage of say Hendo, that will cost a lot less, and keep the team together.

A realist ^ at last!

 

[jono25]

A realist ^ at last!

I find this logic fairly compelling.

Does Hurley or dare I say it, Anthony, want to come play for a good team?

 

[Malifice]

If the Hawks lose him, consider why they lose him.

Money. Pure and simple.

To build a strong premiership team, you need players who are willing to accept a bit less than they could get elsewhere, for the good of the team (much like the Cats, or Saints for instance)

Chris Judd? Brock McLean? Nick Stevens before them?

When all your guys start hitting their prime, and putting the club under pressure with the cap, you need players that are loyal. If every player demands their worth, we will lose players.

FWIW I partly agree with you. I had heard a pretty strong rumour around 1999 - 2000 when I was living in Melbourne from a very good friend of Ang Christou that there was a lot of disgruntled players at Carlton and we were set to implode.

A lot of guys thought we were too mercenary, and it was all about $$$.

As it ends up, thats exactly what happened.

We need to promote this sort of loyalty - not bring in guys like Roughead who obviously mustn't have any if he joined us.

When we got Judd, we were far from a premiership, and all our players were young. It was not crucial back then to promote such loyalty, but it is now. Our players will not be willing to accept less than their worth, when they see us bringing in other guys like Roughead, and over-paying them.

How do you explain the Saints? They have brought in a number of players from other clubs (Gardiner etc). The Hawks relied pretty heavily on Stewart Dew for thier flag and Barry Hall got the Swans a flag.

Trading for experienced players may have some downsides, but the upsides outweigh it IMO.

Over paying him takes away all that spare cash for our young guys, and leaves us with no wriggle room

Judds contract was front ended, and our youngsters will be OK for a few years yet. Reports were that we have a million spare at the end of 2010 after Fevola left and Strevens retired. You can tack on another 150k from CJ's delistment this year.

In 3-5 years time (when we are smack in the middle of our window) when the Salary cap starts to bite and Krueze/ Murph/ Bower and co are asking for the big $$$ we can ask players to take pay cuts ala Saints and Hawks (for the good of the team) then.

We might even have a few veterans on the list by that stage!

the figures you threw up were crazy for (Roughead)

400-600k a year? For a 24 year old proven premiership KPF? Sounds about right IMO.

He could attract that sum and more on the open market. Be a few clubs (us especially) that would happily pay that.

The price of Roughead will be at least one of our young stars some time down the track - we cannot afford him in more ways than one.

Roughead is a young star himself.

I dont see the problem with trading a Star player in a position that we have plenty of (Mids in this case) for a star player in a position that we have very very little depth (key forward)

If I could have Roughy or Gibbs right now, Id take Roughy.

 

[shell23]

Hampson or Jacobs and Thornton for Roughy, would that be fair?

 

[Malifice]

Hampson or Jacobs and Thornton for Roughy, would that be fair?

Should Roughead announce he is going for the $$$ would the Hawks accept either:

a) A random 1st round pick from the AFL in 2-5 years time (likely to be a highish pick), or

b) Hampson and Thornton NOW.

They might look at (b).

A 1st rounder NOW + one of those three players (Jacobs, Hammer or Thornton) would do it IMO.

 

[Sin City]

I think Hampson, Thornton and a first rounder is more like what you'd have to pay for a forward as highly rated as Roughead. I'm not a huge fan personally but he has had a nice career so far and the pelican is one of the most unreasonable blokes to deal with as far as trades go.