- Joined
- May 15, 2007
- Posts
- 1,036
- Reaction score
- 477
- Location
- Central Vic
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Melbourne Renegades
With Master O'Reilly basically being across the line in tomorrow's race, I thought it may be interesting to field a market on the winning margin.
I think it would be reasonable if it looked something like this :
Nse > half length - $3.75
Half length > One & a half-lengths - $2.50
One & a half-lengths > 3 lengths - $3.50
3 lengths > 5 lengths - $6.00
5 lengths > 10 lengths - $14.00
10 lengths + - $41.00
Personally I would be very keen to be on 5-10 lengths @ $14.00, as I truly think he will walk in. My only concern would be that Vlad would ease up on him, but that's probably less likely in the Melbourne Cup than any other race.
The lesser margins (Nse - 3 lengths brackets) may seem a little tight in the market, but if you go back through history you will find not too many Cups are won outside these margins, so it's probably reasonably fair.
(And yes, in the incredibly unlikely case that Master O fails to win - all bets would be refunded!!!)
I think it would be reasonable if it looked something like this :
Nse > half length - $3.75
Half length > One & a half-lengths - $2.50
One & a half-lengths > 3 lengths - $3.50
3 lengths > 5 lengths - $6.00
5 lengths > 10 lengths - $14.00
10 lengths + - $41.00
Personally I would be very keen to be on 5-10 lengths @ $14.00, as I truly think he will walk in. My only concern would be that Vlad would ease up on him, but that's probably less likely in the Melbourne Cup than any other race.
The lesser margins (Nse - 3 lengths brackets) may seem a little tight in the market, but if you go back through history you will find not too many Cups are won outside these margins, so it's probably reasonably fair.
(And yes, in the incredibly unlikely case that Master O fails to win - all bets would be refunded!!!)





