Here is this weeks edition.
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The build up to round 1 was huge, and both Collingwood and Melbourne would be disappointed to have lost their first round match.
For Melbourne, many would be pleased with their more competitive spirit and better attack on the ball. However, given their long pre-season and boasting that they are extremely fit, to be overrun in the 2nd half will be of concern. Still, with 4 debutants and a swag of youngsters, Melbourne have shown strong early signs of improvement, and they may not be the easy beats in 09.
Collingwood’s opening round was even more disappointing. The Pies were highly fancied to beat Adelaide comfortably at the G. Adelaide stole the game from Collingwood in the first quarter. Despite a solid comeback, and a corresponding 18 point lead in the 3rd, Collingwood faded and lost its run in the last quarter. A few nervous passages of play from the senior players also cost Collingwood dearly.
It is rare for these 2 sides to play so early in the year. It has been a long time since Collingwood played Melbourne on anything other than Queen’s Birthday holiday. For Collingwood, ‘Blockbuster fatigue’ is no excuse this year.
Collingwood has beaten Melbourne in the past 2 of its encounters, though both games were highly uninspiring or convincing victories. Prior to this, Melbourne had won 4 Queen’s Birthday clashes in a row.
No doubt that this is a rebuilding phase for Melbourne, and Collingwood should rightly go in as favourites. However, I never take a game against Melbourne lightly because the Demons have a tendency to lift against their Black and White foes.
When these sides last met, it was Collingwood who won 116-95. Lockyer surprisingly polled the 3 votes with 20 possessions and 2 goals, whilst Scott Burns was dominant 36 disposals, 6 tackles and 12 marks. He polled 2 votes. Adam Yze’s 25 possession and 2 goal game earnt him the 1 vote.
Brock Mclean also had one of his better matches with 36 disposals and Bruce was prominent with 27. Alan Didak won 22 disposals and snared 2 goals. Sylvia kicked 3 goals from 14 disposals playing up forward.
The Sides
No doubt the sides take a different look in 2009. Yze and Burns have retired, as has Jeff White who had 24 hitouts. Shane Wakelin has also retired, and Simon Prestigiacomo has reclaimed his defensive spot. Melbourne are highly likely to continue to play a lot of younger players, whilst the temptation will also be there for Collingwood to introduce Beams and Sidebottom into the team for their first games.
Melbourne debuted 4 players last week and all were reasonably impressive. Cheney was particularly impressive with 22 disposals and was given defensive tasks throughout. His form over pre-season was strong. He has shown to be a gutsy and hard worker, and although he might look a bit unfashionable out there, he will give 100%. Jake Spencer would have also pleased the coaching staff. Spencer was promoted onto the senior list in the pre-season after Jamar was put on the LTI. Spencer was very promising throughout the NAB cup and has already jumped ahead of Meesen in the pecking order.
Hamish McIntosh perhaps dominated both Johnson and Spencer in round 1 kicking 3 goals. However, for a debutant, Spencer was impressive with 9 hitouts and 8 possessions. He showed a willingness to link up with his midfielders and put himself in the right spots.
The 2 other debutants for Melbourne were 2 indigenous players in Bennell and Jetta. Each were given limited gametime. Jetta did quite well with 16 possessions and a goal and looks the more likely to retain his spot. Melbourne would also have been heartened to see Aaron Davey back looking reasonably fit, although his impact on the game was limited by a tight tag from Rawlings.
Collingwood would have been concerned with the form of some of its senior players. Didak and Davis were prominent but far from their dangerous best. Davis has apparently been suffering from illness leading up to Round 1. Hopefully we can see him return to his damaging best. The forward line never fired up. Cloke, Medhurst and Fraser were all quite uninfluential. Fraser in particular seemed to lack a bit of drive, whilst Medhurst is definitely lacking from a bit of match conditioning after an interrupted pre-season.
I think we’ll see around 3 changes from the Pies this week. What stood out to me against Adelaide is that Collingwood seemed top heavy down back. They played 6 talls. Melbourne are currently lacking a really tall forward line, so I think atleast 1 will have to be dropped. Given the fact Cox was 1 of the better players, I think it’s Goldsack who will have to make way. This should make room for Heath Shaw who missed round 1. It has been quite some time since Heath has played senior footy, so it will be great to see him return.
I also doubt Ben Reid has done enough to earn his spot. Malthouse used him in defence and forward, but he had little influence in either position. His spot will be taken by Anthony Rocca eventually. Rocca played a VFL practice match last week and booted 6 goals, but whether this is enough for him to return straight to the senior side I don’t know. If not, then Dawes may get his call up.
I then think 1 of Beams or Sidebottom will come into the side. Beams in particular has proven himself over the pre-season to be a ready-made AFL footballer. My preference for him would be to come in to replace Ben Johnson. However, Johnson did provide some dash, but I still think his disposal is off the boil.
I’d also love to make room for Ryan Cook who has displayed a greater sense of aggression and has sized up over the pre-season. I think there is room for him in a tagging role.
Bryan should hold his spot in the ruck despite an ordinary game against Adelaide. At this stage, Bryan’s bigger frame may be more imposing on young Spencer and he is less a chance to be outmuscled by Paul Johnson. Unfortunately for Cameron Wood, he may have to wait until he can prove himself in the VFL before earning his spot again.
Melbourne’s greatest hole seems to be the forward line. Without Neitz and Robertson, and with number 1 draft pick Jack Watts seemingly off the selection radar, the need for an influence up forward is pressing. Petterd was impressive as a lead-up forward considering the fact he had an injury ravaged 2008. Miller had little influence against the Kangaroos and will be required to step up to present a tall target. Paul Johnson is an imposing figure and will be used as a tall target between ruck stints as well.
Colin Sylvia was left out of the round 1 squad and will be close to selection. However the word is that his form in the VFL was not up to scratch and he may be left out again for disciplinary reasons. Woonameri is perhaps not quite ready yet as he recovers from injury, although Maric may come in to add some spark. The players to make way may include some of the debutants in Bennell and Jetta.
Despite the lack of key talls, Melbourne may actually look to exploit Collingwood’s lack of small defenders by playing a small forward line. The likes of Davey, Jetta, Sylvia, Petterd etc up forward will no doubt worry the Pies, especially if Malthouse is too stubborn to drop a tall defender.
But there is no doubt the major concern for Melbourne at the moment is contested marking. It was reported in the paper this week that Hamish McIntosh doubled the entire tally for Melbourne in terms of contested marks. He took 2. Incredibly, Melbourne was only able to clutch 1 contested mark in the whole game! Finding the right targets is going to be their major concern.
My Collingwood side:
B: Shaw, Prestigiacomo, Cox
HB: Toovey, Brown, O’Brien
C: Clarke, Swan, Maxwell
HF: Didak, Cloke, Thomas
F: Davis, Rocca, Anthony
R: Fraser, O’Bree, Pendlebury
I: Bryan, Lockyer, Beams, Medhurst
E: Cook, Stanley, Sidebottom
The Matchups
Melbourne’s greatest chance of victory lies in the midfield. If Collingwood gets first hands on the ball, they have the fire power to finish the game off. But Melbourne do have a few nuggetty midfielders who will cause some troubles for Collingwood.
I would like to see Collingwood tag Mclean. He had 36 disposals the last time these 2 clubs met. If Ryan Cook is rightly selected, then he is the prime candidate for the role. Otherwise O’Bree will most likely go head to head.
Toovey v Davey – OK, before you all laugh at me hear me out. There is no one else on our list with the footspeed or defensive capacity to run with Davey. Toovey has closing speed and is a fantastic tackler. Davey will spend large periods of time in the forward line. Many are very critical of Alan Toovey, and I think it is undeserved. But for him to cement his spot in the side, then he has to take a big scalp early in 2009.
The other option is Harry O’Brien. Harry did a fantastic job on guys like Steve Johnson and was good on Porplyzia last week. I just fear that Davey will spend too much time in the midfield and expose O’Brien in this area.
Fraser v Johnson – Paul Johnson has the muscle, Fraser the versatility. Josh’s game against Adelaide was below his usual output. I’m expecting a far greater return from Josh this week and he should dominate around the ground.
Bartram v Didak/Davis – Bartram got the tagging job on Brent Harvey last week and was fantastic. He restricted Boomer to 16 disposals, which is well down on his average. I think he’ll be given the responsibility on one of the Pies dangerous small forwards.
Warnock v Rocca/Anthony – The impressive young defender is most likely going to take whoever goes to Full Forward.
McDonald v Swan – James McDonald returned to some of his best last week with 23 disposals, 10 tackles and 6 marks. Swan also found some touch in the 2nd half. Both are hard nuts and I would love to see this matchup.
Pendlebury v Green
Maxwell v Bruce – Maxwell is playing as a midfielder now and is a good size matchup for Bruce. He is one of their more creative players, but is slightly out of form at the moment. Keeping Bruce quiet will go a long way to ensuring victory.
Lockyer v Buckley – Buckley provides a lot of run off half back, so I would like to see Lockyer in his defensive forward role keeping things tight.
Other than that, its quite hard to do the matchup’s against Melbourne. They are a young side and many players are still finding their footing and role within the team. That makes them a difficult team to plan for. It is hard to know what they will structure up like in the forward line.
This further exemplifies the need I feel to drop a tall defender. Prestigiacomo and Brown will simply take whoever lines up at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. Harry O’Brien has the capacity to play small, whilst Maxwell will play in the midfield. Collingwood will then need to bring in a range of smaller guys like Shaw, Toovey and Clarke to do the job on the Melbourne small forwards. Shannon Cox did well in his rebounding role last week and will hold his spot.
The Wrap Up
Despite the glaring holes in the Demon side, they did play a good brand of football against the Kangaroos. They feel confident playing Collingwood and will be keen to put up a good showing in front of a large crowd. I hope a good crowd turns up. This is a Collingwood home game, but Melbourne fans need to come out and get behind their team early before it is too late.
I’ll tip Collingwood by 30 points, but I think we’ll see a close game for the majority of the match. Melbourne enjoy playing Collingwood. They feel they match up well and they often go in more hungry.
The midfield battle is the key for Melbourne. Collingwood won the clearances last week but lost the match. I don’t feel the same will happen this week. If Collingwood gets first hands on the ball then their forwards are far too dangerous. Melbourne on the other hand have a suspect forward line who struggles to take contested marks.
It will be interesting to see whether Melbourne employ zoning techniques or flood or go man on man. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Collingwood struggles against the zone. I think we will see more and more clubs use this strategy against the Magpies.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
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The build up to round 1 was huge, and both Collingwood and Melbourne would be disappointed to have lost their first round match.
For Melbourne, many would be pleased with their more competitive spirit and better attack on the ball. However, given their long pre-season and boasting that they are extremely fit, to be overrun in the 2nd half will be of concern. Still, with 4 debutants and a swag of youngsters, Melbourne have shown strong early signs of improvement, and they may not be the easy beats in 09.
Collingwood’s opening round was even more disappointing. The Pies were highly fancied to beat Adelaide comfortably at the G. Adelaide stole the game from Collingwood in the first quarter. Despite a solid comeback, and a corresponding 18 point lead in the 3rd, Collingwood faded and lost its run in the last quarter. A few nervous passages of play from the senior players also cost Collingwood dearly.
It is rare for these 2 sides to play so early in the year. It has been a long time since Collingwood played Melbourne on anything other than Queen’s Birthday holiday. For Collingwood, ‘Blockbuster fatigue’ is no excuse this year.
Collingwood has beaten Melbourne in the past 2 of its encounters, though both games were highly uninspiring or convincing victories. Prior to this, Melbourne had won 4 Queen’s Birthday clashes in a row.
No doubt that this is a rebuilding phase for Melbourne, and Collingwood should rightly go in as favourites. However, I never take a game against Melbourne lightly because the Demons have a tendency to lift against their Black and White foes.
When these sides last met, it was Collingwood who won 116-95. Lockyer surprisingly polled the 3 votes with 20 possessions and 2 goals, whilst Scott Burns was dominant 36 disposals, 6 tackles and 12 marks. He polled 2 votes. Adam Yze’s 25 possession and 2 goal game earnt him the 1 vote.
Brock Mclean also had one of his better matches with 36 disposals and Bruce was prominent with 27. Alan Didak won 22 disposals and snared 2 goals. Sylvia kicked 3 goals from 14 disposals playing up forward.
The Sides
No doubt the sides take a different look in 2009. Yze and Burns have retired, as has Jeff White who had 24 hitouts. Shane Wakelin has also retired, and Simon Prestigiacomo has reclaimed his defensive spot. Melbourne are highly likely to continue to play a lot of younger players, whilst the temptation will also be there for Collingwood to introduce Beams and Sidebottom into the team for their first games.
Melbourne debuted 4 players last week and all were reasonably impressive. Cheney was particularly impressive with 22 disposals and was given defensive tasks throughout. His form over pre-season was strong. He has shown to be a gutsy and hard worker, and although he might look a bit unfashionable out there, he will give 100%. Jake Spencer would have also pleased the coaching staff. Spencer was promoted onto the senior list in the pre-season after Jamar was put on the LTI. Spencer was very promising throughout the NAB cup and has already jumped ahead of Meesen in the pecking order.
Hamish McIntosh perhaps dominated both Johnson and Spencer in round 1 kicking 3 goals. However, for a debutant, Spencer was impressive with 9 hitouts and 8 possessions. He showed a willingness to link up with his midfielders and put himself in the right spots.
The 2 other debutants for Melbourne were 2 indigenous players in Bennell and Jetta. Each were given limited gametime. Jetta did quite well with 16 possessions and a goal and looks the more likely to retain his spot. Melbourne would also have been heartened to see Aaron Davey back looking reasonably fit, although his impact on the game was limited by a tight tag from Rawlings.
Collingwood would have been concerned with the form of some of its senior players. Didak and Davis were prominent but far from their dangerous best. Davis has apparently been suffering from illness leading up to Round 1. Hopefully we can see him return to his damaging best. The forward line never fired up. Cloke, Medhurst and Fraser were all quite uninfluential. Fraser in particular seemed to lack a bit of drive, whilst Medhurst is definitely lacking from a bit of match conditioning after an interrupted pre-season.
I think we’ll see around 3 changes from the Pies this week. What stood out to me against Adelaide is that Collingwood seemed top heavy down back. They played 6 talls. Melbourne are currently lacking a really tall forward line, so I think atleast 1 will have to be dropped. Given the fact Cox was 1 of the better players, I think it’s Goldsack who will have to make way. This should make room for Heath Shaw who missed round 1. It has been quite some time since Heath has played senior footy, so it will be great to see him return.
I also doubt Ben Reid has done enough to earn his spot. Malthouse used him in defence and forward, but he had little influence in either position. His spot will be taken by Anthony Rocca eventually. Rocca played a VFL practice match last week and booted 6 goals, but whether this is enough for him to return straight to the senior side I don’t know. If not, then Dawes may get his call up.
I then think 1 of Beams or Sidebottom will come into the side. Beams in particular has proven himself over the pre-season to be a ready-made AFL footballer. My preference for him would be to come in to replace Ben Johnson. However, Johnson did provide some dash, but I still think his disposal is off the boil.
I’d also love to make room for Ryan Cook who has displayed a greater sense of aggression and has sized up over the pre-season. I think there is room for him in a tagging role.
Bryan should hold his spot in the ruck despite an ordinary game against Adelaide. At this stage, Bryan’s bigger frame may be more imposing on young Spencer and he is less a chance to be outmuscled by Paul Johnson. Unfortunately for Cameron Wood, he may have to wait until he can prove himself in the VFL before earning his spot again.
Melbourne’s greatest hole seems to be the forward line. Without Neitz and Robertson, and with number 1 draft pick Jack Watts seemingly off the selection radar, the need for an influence up forward is pressing. Petterd was impressive as a lead-up forward considering the fact he had an injury ravaged 2008. Miller had little influence against the Kangaroos and will be required to step up to present a tall target. Paul Johnson is an imposing figure and will be used as a tall target between ruck stints as well.
Colin Sylvia was left out of the round 1 squad and will be close to selection. However the word is that his form in the VFL was not up to scratch and he may be left out again for disciplinary reasons. Woonameri is perhaps not quite ready yet as he recovers from injury, although Maric may come in to add some spark. The players to make way may include some of the debutants in Bennell and Jetta.
Despite the lack of key talls, Melbourne may actually look to exploit Collingwood’s lack of small defenders by playing a small forward line. The likes of Davey, Jetta, Sylvia, Petterd etc up forward will no doubt worry the Pies, especially if Malthouse is too stubborn to drop a tall defender.
But there is no doubt the major concern for Melbourne at the moment is contested marking. It was reported in the paper this week that Hamish McIntosh doubled the entire tally for Melbourne in terms of contested marks. He took 2. Incredibly, Melbourne was only able to clutch 1 contested mark in the whole game! Finding the right targets is going to be their major concern.
My Collingwood side:
B: Shaw, Prestigiacomo, Cox
HB: Toovey, Brown, O’Brien
C: Clarke, Swan, Maxwell
HF: Didak, Cloke, Thomas
F: Davis, Rocca, Anthony
R: Fraser, O’Bree, Pendlebury
I: Bryan, Lockyer, Beams, Medhurst
E: Cook, Stanley, Sidebottom
The Matchups
Melbourne’s greatest chance of victory lies in the midfield. If Collingwood gets first hands on the ball, they have the fire power to finish the game off. But Melbourne do have a few nuggetty midfielders who will cause some troubles for Collingwood.
I would like to see Collingwood tag Mclean. He had 36 disposals the last time these 2 clubs met. If Ryan Cook is rightly selected, then he is the prime candidate for the role. Otherwise O’Bree will most likely go head to head.
Toovey v Davey – OK, before you all laugh at me hear me out. There is no one else on our list with the footspeed or defensive capacity to run with Davey. Toovey has closing speed and is a fantastic tackler. Davey will spend large periods of time in the forward line. Many are very critical of Alan Toovey, and I think it is undeserved. But for him to cement his spot in the side, then he has to take a big scalp early in 2009.
The other option is Harry O’Brien. Harry did a fantastic job on guys like Steve Johnson and was good on Porplyzia last week. I just fear that Davey will spend too much time in the midfield and expose O’Brien in this area.
Fraser v Johnson – Paul Johnson has the muscle, Fraser the versatility. Josh’s game against Adelaide was below his usual output. I’m expecting a far greater return from Josh this week and he should dominate around the ground.
Bartram v Didak/Davis – Bartram got the tagging job on Brent Harvey last week and was fantastic. He restricted Boomer to 16 disposals, which is well down on his average. I think he’ll be given the responsibility on one of the Pies dangerous small forwards.
Warnock v Rocca/Anthony – The impressive young defender is most likely going to take whoever goes to Full Forward.
McDonald v Swan – James McDonald returned to some of his best last week with 23 disposals, 10 tackles and 6 marks. Swan also found some touch in the 2nd half. Both are hard nuts and I would love to see this matchup.
Pendlebury v Green
Maxwell v Bruce – Maxwell is playing as a midfielder now and is a good size matchup for Bruce. He is one of their more creative players, but is slightly out of form at the moment. Keeping Bruce quiet will go a long way to ensuring victory.
Lockyer v Buckley – Buckley provides a lot of run off half back, so I would like to see Lockyer in his defensive forward role keeping things tight.
Other than that, its quite hard to do the matchup’s against Melbourne. They are a young side and many players are still finding their footing and role within the team. That makes them a difficult team to plan for. It is hard to know what they will structure up like in the forward line.
This further exemplifies the need I feel to drop a tall defender. Prestigiacomo and Brown will simply take whoever lines up at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. Harry O’Brien has the capacity to play small, whilst Maxwell will play in the midfield. Collingwood will then need to bring in a range of smaller guys like Shaw, Toovey and Clarke to do the job on the Melbourne small forwards. Shannon Cox did well in his rebounding role last week and will hold his spot.
The Wrap Up
Despite the glaring holes in the Demon side, they did play a good brand of football against the Kangaroos. They feel confident playing Collingwood and will be keen to put up a good showing in front of a large crowd. I hope a good crowd turns up. This is a Collingwood home game, but Melbourne fans need to come out and get behind their team early before it is too late.
I’ll tip Collingwood by 30 points, but I think we’ll see a close game for the majority of the match. Melbourne enjoy playing Collingwood. They feel they match up well and they often go in more hungry.
The midfield battle is the key for Melbourne. Collingwood won the clearances last week but lost the match. I don’t feel the same will happen this week. If Collingwood gets first hands on the ball then their forwards are far too dangerous. Melbourne on the other hand have a suspect forward line who struggles to take contested marks.
It will be interesting to see whether Melbourne employ zoning techniques or flood or go man on man. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Collingwood struggles against the zone. I think we will see more and more clubs use this strategy against the Magpies.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
