Draft Expert ModernArtillery 2022 Draft Thread

ray8182

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Round 1
  1. Brisbane – Will Ashcroft (matched bid)
  2. North Melbourne – Harry Sheezel
  3. West Coast – George Wardlaw
  4. GWS – Bailey Humphrey
  5. Essendon – Aaron Cadman
  6. Gold Coast (from Adelaide) - Elijah Tsatas
  7. Hawthorn – Olli Hotton
  8. Gold Coast – Jedd Busslinger
  9. Port Adelaide – Jhye Clark
  10. St Kilda – Cam Mackenzie
  11. Carlton – Matthew Jefferson
  12. Western Bulldogs – Lewis Hayes
  13. Richmond – Mattaes Phillipou
  14. Fremantle – Reuben Ginbey
  15. Brisbane – Jaspa Fletcher (matched bid)
  16. Sydney – Henry Hustwaite
  17. Collingwood – Elijah Hewett
  18. Sydney – Coby Burgiel
  19. Geelong – Oliver Hollands
I've probably got Humphrey, Hotton and Hayes at their ceilings from a draft position perspective. I have them there without any confidence, but I do feel like they would at least be in the conversation for those clubs in that range.

I've obviously given Gold Coast the extra selection from the Crows in anticipation of the Rankine trade. I think Gold Coast walk away pretty well with Tsatas and Busslinger from both a needs and talent perspective. Retention will of course be the challenge.

I'm not really a fan of Ginbey or Hustwaite, but there seems to be a strong indication that Ginbey in particular will be a first round selection. Who knows where Fremantle's picks will land with the Jackson trade + Lobb/Logue/Acres all seemingly on their way out.

Collingwood and Geelong walk away looking pretty good here with Hewett and Hollands respectively. I think this will very much be the theme of the draft, with clubs selecting later in the piece being perceived to have got real value due to the depth of the tiers in this group.

Also - huge props to anyone who has managed to do a phantom beyond the first round. I quit after pick 25.

Would be surprised if Carlton took Jefferson. Don’t think we will be looking at a key forward unless you think he’s a key defender. Even then l would be surprised if we went with a tall.

My opinion is Carlton needs durable players that can run both ways and help with ball movement/transition. Hotton, Clark, Mackenzie, Hewitt or Hollands might help with this.


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ModernArtillery

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Would be surprised if Carlton took Jefferson. Don’t think we will be looking at a key forward unless you think he’s a key defender. Even then l would be surprised if we went with a tall.

My opinion is Carlton needs durable players that can run both ways and help with ball movement/transition. Hotton, Clark, Mackenzie, Hewitt or Hollands might help with this.


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It does feel early for Jefferson but I actually thought the fit was good. Carlton don't have any young developing key forwards on the list, have depth through the midfield and have more than enough options in defence at the moment.

Based on this phantom draft, only Hollands and Hewett are still on the board from your list. I'm still a fan of Hewett, but I don't see him breaking into that midfield in the short-term. Hollands could be an option, but I'm not sure he has an immediate impact either. At that point, I'd personally be leaning towards Jefferson.
 

Coona Blues

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It does feel early for Jefferson but I actually thought the fit was good. Carlton don't have any young developing key forwards on the list, have depth through the midfield and have more than enough options in defence at the moment.

Based on this phantom draft, only Hollands and Hewett are still on the board from your list. I'm still a fan of Hewett, but I don't see him breaking into that midfield in the short-term. Hollands could be an option, but I'm not sure he has an immediate impact either. At that point, I'd personally be leaning towards Jefferson.
It is a fair call. I am of the belief our greatest need is a combination of two way run and improved connection, however you are correct that we need a viable key forward option developing. It doesn’t need to be at the pointy end of the draft. I look at the likes of Phoenix Foster and Olivier Northam in later rounds who are less touted, but decent prospects.

Fascinated to see how we jump. Many posters want mature depth, but we must embrace the draft in my opinion. More chance of kicking a goal with a “diamond in the rough” than grabbing a journeyman or two to cover our depth needs.

Assuming Tassie comes in in 2027, we need to be addressing generation next in the key posts now rather than waiting until Charlie, Harry and Weiters near their thirties. We suffered enough trying to rebuild during the formation of GWS and the Suns, one would hope we learned our lesson and drop some irons in the fire.

Foster does have a National combine invite and interests me, given he also has a legitimate prospect to play as a forward/ruck.

I look at Hollands and Hotton as best fit on type for our first, but don’t discount Jefferson at all. He may be slow burn with his slight frame, but we have time. Minute chance Phillipou slides far enough, but would be impossible to ignore if he does.
 

bone2468

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Round 1
  1. Brisbane – Will Ashcroft (matched bid)
  2. North Melbourne – Harry Sheezel
  3. West Coast – George Wardlaw
  4. GWS – Bailey Humphrey
  5. Essendon – Aaron Cadman
  6. Gold Coast (from Adelaide) - Elijah Tsatas
  7. Hawthorn – Olli Hotton
  8. Gold Coast – Jedd Busslinger
  9. Port Adelaide – Jhye Clark
  10. St Kilda – Cam Mackenzie
  11. Carlton – Matthew Jefferson
  12. Western Bulldogs – Lewis Hayes
  13. Richmond – Mattaes Phillipou
  14. Fremantle – Reuben Ginbey
  15. Brisbane – Jaspa Fletcher (matched bid)
  16. Sydney – Henry Hustwaite
  17. Collingwood – Elijah Hewett
  18. Sydney – Coby Burgiel
  19. Geelong – Oliver Hollands
I've probably got Humphrey, Hotton and Hayes at their ceilings from a draft position perspective. I have them there without any confidence, but I do feel like they would at least be in the conversation for those clubs in that range.

I've obviously given Gold Coast the extra selection from the Crows in anticipation of the Rankine trade. I think Gold Coast walk away pretty well with Tsatas and Busslinger from both a needs and talent perspective. Retention will of course be the challenge.

I'm not really a fan of Ginbey or Hustwaite, but there seems to be a strong indication that Ginbey in particular will be a first round selection. Who knows where Fremantle's picks will land with the Jackson trade + Lobb/Logue/Acres all seemingly on their way out.

Collingwood and Geelong walk away looking pretty good here with Hewett and Hollands respectively. I think this will very much be the theme of the draft, with clubs selecting later in the piece being perceived to have got real value due to the depth of the tiers in this group.

Also - huge props to anyone who has managed to do a phantom beyond the first round. I quit after pick 25.
I think if fremantle take a defender with our first pick our recruiter will be sacked on the spot
 

WalshistheGOAT

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It does feel early for Jefferson but I actually thought the fit was good. Carlton don't have any young developing key forwards on the list, have depth through the midfield and have more than enough options in defence at the moment.

Based on this phantom draft, only Hollands and Hewett are still on the board from your list. I'm still a fan of Hewett, but I don't see him breaking into that midfield in the short-term. Hollands could be an option, but I'm not sure he has an immediate impact either. At that point, I'd personally be leaning towards Jefferson.
I'd also be stunned if we went for a tall outside of Busslinger. We have real issues on the outside and we desperately need some competent hard running wings/half forwards who can use the ball well. Hotton, Hollands, Mckenzie or Clark the dream for me. There's not really any goal kicking small forward specialists early on which is our other big weakness.

Durability probably the most important thing in whoever we pick. Voss made that quite clear in his post season address to the fans given how many injury prone players on our list.
 

ModernArtillery

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I think if fremantle take a defender with our first pick our recruiter will be sacked on the spot
If you take Ginbey in the first round I don't think you're expecting him to be a defender.

I'd also be stunned if we went for a tall outside of Busslinger. We have real issues on the outside and we desperately need some competent hard running wings/half forwards who can use the ball well. Hotton, Hollands, Mckenzie or Clark the dream for me. There's not really any goal kicking small forward specialists early on which is our other big weakness.

Durability probably the most important thing in whoever we pick. Voss made that quite clear in his post season address to the fans given how many injury prone players on our list.
I can understand going for any of those guys you listed over Jefferson, none would surprise. Based on this phantom, Hollands would be the only one available. Interestingly, you mentioned Carlton have real issues on the outside, but named four players who do their best work in and around the stoppage.

Would it really be that crazy for a team that has only two key forwards to draft one of the more promising key forwards in the draft? Perhaps some of those concerns on the outside could be addressed through trade and free agency.

If durability is the most important attribute then I'd be really, really concerned. I would've thought talent, athleticism, potential and list fit are pretty important.
 

ModernArtillery

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Thought's on Phoenix Foster reckon bit to work with.
Yeah agreed - he's raw but there's a bit to work with. He had some nice moments in the first game for SA at the Champs and recently tore apart a quarter of football for Norwood in the SANFL U18's. I like his competitiveness in the air and the fact that he can go through the ruck is valuable. I think he'll draw consideration as a late/rookie selection.
 

ModernArtillery

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I don't see Mackenzie or Clark getting past Hawks first pick.
I'd rather have Noah Long than Hotton also.
Certainly are quality players there in that first 30.
I think you're probably right, though I wouldn't be surprised if they rated others higher.

I think you'd probably be in the minority in the Hotton v Long debate, but nothing wrong with that. I quite like Noah Long as well.

I think this draft is relatively deep with guys that could develop into solid role players. I just don't see much depth in the top end guys, and I feel like there's a few question marks over those with genuine star potential.
 

Chris25

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I think this draft is relatively deep with guys that could develop into solid role players. I just don't see much depth in the top end guys, and I feel like there's a few question marks over those with genuine star potential.

There's a lot of guys in this draft that I look at and think I'd be happy to take a chance on in the second or third rounds - problem is, they're currently rated as first round picks.
 
Harry Barnett Profile New

ModernArtillery

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Harry Barnett Profile

I'm not one to get overly excited by ruck prospects but I'd genuinely consider picking Barnett late in the first round. If you look at his listed strengths, he ticks all the boxes for me, and I think there's still a fair bit of untapped potential. There's just too many ways that he can impact the game from a ruck perspective that I'd be very surprised if he didn't have a career at AFL level.
 
Adam D'Aloia Profile New

ModernArtillery

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Adam D'Aloia Profile

You could genuinely make a case that D'Aloia is the best-performed junior footballer in the country not named Will Ashcroft. The athletic attributes are obviously the biggest concern and the ball use is not AFL-standard at this point in time, but if you want a good kid that can find the footy and do absolutely every right, D'Aloia is your man.
 

Smythe

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Harry Barnett Profile

I'm not one to get overly excited by ruck prospects but I'd genuinely consider picking Barnett late in the first round. If you look at his listed strengths, he ticks all the boxes for me, and I think there's still a fair bit of untapped potential. There's just too many ways that he can impact the game from a ruck perspective that I'd be very surprised if he didn't have a career at AFL level.
Highly agree
 

ModernArtillery

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Is the draft this year that weak?
I know this question was directed at Chris but I'll add my two cents.

I think this draft just generally lacks that group of kids at the top that generate real excitement and optimism that they'll be stars. If we look at the last few years, we've had Horne-Francis, Daicos and Darcy (2021), Jamarra, Thilthorpe, McDonald and Hollands (2020), Rowell, Anderson, Jackson and Green (2019) and then most of the top 10 in 2018. Each of those drafts have had can't miss prospects at the top end. In all likelihood, Ashcroft, Wardlaw, Tsatas, Sheezel and Cadman become really good players. However I don't get the feeling that any of them really carry the same level of hype that some of those other names have in years gone past. Part of that is probably because Wardlaw, Tsatas and even Humphrey have missed a fair bit of footy this year.

On top of that, the perception of some of the late first round rated talent is that you might not feel like you've got first round value. The evenness from as early as say 11-12 all the way through to 35-40 means that it's kinda hard to feel like you've got genuine value picking at the early end of that range.
 
Billy Dowling Profile New

ModernArtillery

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Billy Dowling Profile

After working on Dowling's profile I really feel like I've underrated him as a prospect. I've probably judged him too harshly because he wins a lot of empty calorie possessions, but putting that aside, he's got a lot of scope to fill a variety of roles at AFL level. I think I like him best as a winger at the next level where I see a pretty clear path for him to be a best 22 player.
 

Chris25

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On top of that, the perception of some of the late first round rated talent is that you might not feel like you've got first round value. The evenness from as early as say 11-12 all the way through to 35-40 means that it's kinda hard to feel like you've got genuine value picking at the early end of that range.

It's sort of a strange one for me.

Of the top guys, I'm not any less confident than other years - I'm just not as excited. And I agree on the relative evenness from the teens through to sort of the late second/early third round. I think this draft will be more about getting your guy, rather than getting value.

But the strange part is, I think the strength of the draft is in that second to third round depth. But a lot of teams are looking like taking minimal picks in. So someone like Billy Dowling could both be considered a strength of the draft (a decent mid round option) but also go undrafted because of the amount of picks likely to be taken.
 

Thunderstruck

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For me I see good midfielder depth in this draft with plenty of high end talent. Next year lacks midfielders in terms of numbers but has a far greater quantity of dangerous and damaging half forwards and versatile players.
 
Harry Lemmey + Isaac Keeler + Phoenix Foster Draft Profiles New

ModernArtillery

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Harry Lemmey Profile
Isaac Keeler Profile
Phoenix Foster Profile

I thought it might be worth sharing these profiles in the one post given they're all SA KPF's with varying degrees of ability in the ruck.

It's hard not to be worried about Lemmey given the trajectory he was heading after his 2021 season. The talent hasn't disappeared though and I'd still be willing to draft him. I do have some concern that if things don't fall exactly his way at AFL level that he may struggle to put together a meaningful career. I'm curious to see how recruiters view Lemmey and can't help but wonder if there's a chance he misses out altogether.

I've probably seen Keeler live more than any other prospect in this years draft pool, but he just never won me over. I see the talent, the athletic attributes, the movement, but it's the floating in and out of games and the lack of physicality that worries me.

Though I have Foster ranked the lowest of the three, there's a world where he has the longest AFL career as a serviceable ruck/forward. His willingness to compete in the air and versatility to play deep, push up the ground and then go through the ruck suggests there's plenty to work with. Foster also has an element of rawness that indicates there may be a fair bit of untapped potential with him.

My gut tells me that all three get drafted, with Keeler the only of the two I'd be comfortable betting my house on.
 

Swiggy

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Yeah agreed - he's raw but there's a bit to work with. He had some nice moments in the first game for SA at the Champs and recently tore apart a quarter of football for Norwood in the SANFL U18's. I like his competitiveness in the air and the fact that he can go through the ruck is valuable. I think he'll draw consideration as a late/rookie selection.
Wouldn’t mind freo taking a punt on him