Newspoll - back to 59-41!
- Thread starter CharlieG
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- Banned
- #28
John Schumann Democrat and Redgum singer
The Democrats' Federal result was about 22%, for John Schumann, who is a high profile candidate
One Nation and Labor preferences flowed very tightly to the Democrat, almost electing him.
- Aug 2, 2001
- 8,656
- 3,189
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Swan Districts
I remember that now, however if correct the recent changes in the electoral boundries have made the seat a lot safer for the idiot son of an aristocrat, plus the Democrats being so insignificant at this election, Downer should be re-elected comfortably.
Sad though, one of the most asinine politicians to grace Parliament.
Theseventhhamster
Brownlow Medallist
I was wondering why Downer of all people was playing attack dog on Rudd lately. Equally hilarious and interesting stuff.
New comparison charts
Two party preferred / Preferred PM
Primary vote
Two party preferred / Preferred PM
Primary vote
Well these are based on Newspoll numbers, and the previous one was done just before Strippergate appeared, so I reckon on face value you could say it backfired mightily on the Government. That said, I think this is fairly much a rogue (just as the 54-46 Morgan was in the context of it's series), though I think it's probably on the edge of the margin of error from the real levels of support, which I'd rate as remaining solid around 55-56/45-44.
I think the polls have also shown that the early year statements that Labor's vote was a honeymoon was true - but not by anywhere near as much as people were thinking, and Labor's vote now is pretty solid.
Looking at the graph, I think we can see a Budget bounce two polls after the Budget, but it's been a one off, and all it did was eliminate the honeymoon poll numbers. Basically the Coalition made up about 1.5% after the Budget, but haven't really made up a thing since.
I think the polls have also shown that the early year statements that Labor's vote was a honeymoon was true - but not by anywhere near as much as people were thinking, and Labor's vote now is pretty solid.
Looking at the graph, I think we can see a Budget bounce two polls after the Budget, but it's been a one off, and all it did was eliminate the honeymoon poll numbers. Basically the Coalition made up about 1.5% after the Budget, but haven't really made up a thing since.
- Banned
- #34
the obvious difference between the two elections looks like the primary vote.
labor's is much stronger than it was 3 years ago. i recall labor's low primary vote at the '04 election being really low, and much was made about it in the press.
edit: it was about this point of the election year that labor's primary fell below coalition and gradually decayed to below 40% around election time.
labor's is much stronger than it was 3 years ago. i recall labor's low primary vote at the '04 election being really low, and much was made about it in the press.
edit: it was about this point of the election year that labor's primary fell below coalition and gradually decayed to below 40% around election time.
Whilst the last redistribution did make some big changes to Mayo, I don't think it altered the character of the seat all that much.
The real point is that Schumann was the perfect candidate to (almost) unseat Downer. A quasi-celebrity who, as a Democrat, was running under the banner of a party at least somewhat palatable to the voters of the Adelaide Hills.
A Labor candidate wouldn't stand a chance.
Downer is safe.
well if labor wins and downer manages to get opposition leader ahead of custerello, expect a big landslide victory to labor in 2010.
Actually, looking at the 2004 figures, I reckon the one poll in August with Labor > 40% on primaries is close to being a rogue poll as well. I think there are two clear outliers in the 2004 numbers - the Labor 53-47 after the Budget, and the 53-47 in August. Take those two out, and you can see a slow drop off from the Budget onward - and without them, the Coalition was in front on primary votes from June onward.
Oddly enough, just looking at the charts (ie not doing any hard core maths on them), there seems to be a fair correlation between the Coalition primary vote polling of 2004 and Labor's 2007 primary polling. Except Labor are about 3% higher across the board.
From my recollection, the preferred PM more acurately predicted the result of the 2004 election than the 2 party preferred, in the month or two before the election.
American Person Eating Cow (at Kirribilli) should provide a lift for Howard at the next newspoll.
- Aug 2, 2001
- 8,656
- 3,189
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Swan Districts
I really am hoping that Howard does not step aside before the next election. This hubris man deserves to lose his seat and actually feel the same pain that some under Workchoices has suffered. Besides, if he did step aside, the "Man of Steel" will be seen as a coward who deserted a sinking ship and this image will be the final one of Howard which he will be remembered most for.
Besides, it is too late, if Howard stepped aside for Costello they still will be smashed at the next election. Nothing can save the Liberals now, it's time.
Besides, it is too late, if Howard stepped aside for Costello they still will be smashed at the next election. Nothing can save the Liberals now, it's time.
- Banned
- #41
I've had a few, so I'm not sure what you mean, but is this good fortune for those eager to remove this dangerous, populist, power hungry PM?
- Thread starter
- #42
I agree. It is far, far too late for him to be able to walk away untarnished by the looming destruction of his government, but I will be furious if he gets to escape his concession speech on election night. I want to see quivering lips.
Pretty confident eh Charlie?
Obviously you are entitled to be with the current polls and good luck to you.
But I still reckon something isn't right - see those latest growth figures? IIRC WA and QLD have figures akin to growth in China.
These states will turn on the Libs?
Good luck to Rudd if he wins - but it will be a first when the economy is going gangbusters.
- Thread starter
- #44
I called this election in February and have never had any reason to change that belief. Once you free your mind of Howard's aura of invincibility, it wasn't hard to see that the Government was in all sorts of trouble as soon as Rudd became leader.
But I see that you, like Dennis Shanahan, still just don't get it.
Gary Shadforth
Norm Smith Medallist
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If the little rodent was to arrange for either happening there would be a public lynching.
Gary Shadforth
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What I saw in Howard's body language and the look on his face when greeting and listening to Bush, his inner thoughts: : 'Geeez .... I got this wrong. APEC is not going to give me a boost at all in the next polls ..... I didn't realize I would be on the nose when I booked the event for Sydney a couple of years ago.
'Please George go home so I can get back holding babies around Benelong .... I cant stand all this bulsh you are going on with .... I'll be having fish cooked by my chef, not meat by your personal five greasies, sob!, sob!'
'Please George go home so I can get back holding babies around Benelong .... I cant stand all this bulsh you are going on with .... I'll be having fish cooked by my chef, not meat by your personal five greasies, sob!, sob!'
Wanting a change in policy direction is one thing, but wanting to see another human being humilated in front of a national audience reeks of evil.
Gary Shadforth said:
A show of strength anongst world leaders will surely appeal to the swinging voter. He is probably done on introducing work choices without having had it as an election policy last time but I would be surprised if APEC isn't a plus for the government. He seemed genuinely happy to see Bush to me, perceptions must be in the eye of the beholder.
What you saw as dread, I would put down to nerves.
- Thread starter
- #48
Howard doesn't deserve to go out with dignity. He deserves humiliation. If that makes me "evil", then so be it. I will remind you that I didn't invade any foreign countries, accuse parents of throwing their children into the sea or abandon Australian citizens to torture and five years of false inprisonment. But hey, if I'm "evil" for wanting to see the man who DID do all of that - and who will never be called to account for his crimes - humbled just a little bit, then I can live with that.
If Howard loses, he is no longer a threat to a civil society. The nation doesn't gain from a crest fallen John Howard.
Unless you can substantiate some sort of electoral fraud in 1996, 1998 amd 2001, going crook about more than what he has done since October 2004 is going against the morality of the ballot box.
My vote against Howard stretches back to the invasion of Iraq but I have to accept that in the scheme of the ballot box, the invasion has been given a tick.
Anybody hot and bothered about Howard policy, fair enough, but the likes of you would turn up at the gallows early if Howard was due to swing.
Find the attitude of wanting to see Howard suffer very immature. Sure others do to.
- Banned
- #50
You're reading to much into economic data. People don't vote just based on that. I think the results of the last election have twisted everyone into believing that economic performance is the sole determining factor.
For example, the economy was much stronger in 1996 than it was in 1993 or 1990, yet Labor was reelected in those years. The reason for reelection was unpopular policy (Fightback), and unpopular opposition leaders. The reason for Labor's loss in 1996 was almost solely due to Paul Keating's massive unpopularity.
In 1998, Labor achieved a greater share of the vote (yet lost because Liberals targeted the marginals) due to unpopular policy. The economy was again stronger than in 1996.
John Howard's good wins as an incumbent (2001 + 2004) have come when the central message of his platform has been stability and security.
This boom is entirely out of John Howard's control, and I think most people know that their fortunes are tied to China. Meanwhile, the main platform of John Howard's current term is another unpopular policy. These don't do well at election time.
Kevin Rudd is not as unstable as Mark Latham, and seems to have stronger, more considered ideas than Beazley.
Who wins the election will come down to the campaign strategy, as it did in 1998, but there's no doubt that there will be a massive swing to Labor, unless something major happens which reinforces an incumbent's strengths.
I think these numbers are probably pretty correct.
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