Nick Suban - When?

[Banker]

Strange he was made sub when he is widely accepted as the best wet tracker in the 22

Ross was probably resting him loll

 

[salim malik]

Strange he was made sub when he is widely accepted as the best wet tracker in the 22

Pure genius by Ross. Subes came on laid a tackle ,claimed the free and kicked the sealer.

 

[poshman]

Barely touched it as a fresh mid for a quarter and a half. Kicked a crucial goal but also gave away a stupid htb...

 

[Dormammu]

You mean like Stephen Hill, who has collected more contested possessions and clearances this season than "stoppage left-footed midfielder" Nick Suban. You are declaring Suban has a role that belongs to someone else already and who is better at it.

Comparing an inside mid to an outside mid who's primary responsibility is distribution? One starts several metres off the stoppage and is seeking to get separation on his opponent whilst the other is striving to hold his position against an opponent, both close to the ruck contest? That's false equivalence right there.

What does that have to do with anything? We're talking midfielders, right? Not defenders. False equivalence.

The example of a Melbourne defender is an excellent way to help highlight the Fallacy of Large Numbers, (e.g., see above). For those not familiar with this trick, think of how a Melbourne defender might rack up large numbers of contested possessions and tackles than a defender at say, Fremantle. Do these large numbers mean he is a superior defender? Not necessarily, for as we know, over the years the ball has spent more time in the Demon's D50 than an Eagle's lawyer negotiating bail conditions. So, with more opportunities to get hands on ball it would be reasonable to expect to see the Melbourne defender getting larger numbers.

You have claimed that he is at stoppages because he has a left foot, and yet have nothing to back up that claim.

First, it's not just that he is left-footed but also that he has, as stated in the post, a mature body, i.e., one that can better withstand the rigours that come from being an inside mid; holding position, absorbing gang tackles, creating blocks, applying a tag, killing the ball if necessary etc.

The importance of having a left-footed inside mid ("LFIM") is due to the desire to achieve quick release from stoppages. Every stoppage will have an area on either side of it. I've heard one coach call it channels, another recently (at the State U16 trials), corridors, which I don't favour as I believe the term should be reserved for the centre of the ground. At training we used to split these two areas into quadrants. Even if a stoppage occurs on the boundary line, umpires will restart the game 3-4 metres in from the boundary so that this area is created (as much for themselves to exit the stoppage after restart).

At stoppage, the LFIM should be positioned so that when he gets the ball, his non-preferred (right side) is closest to the stoppage, as this will help shield the ball from being stripped and reduce the risk of the kick or handpass being smothered. The situation for a RFIM mirrors this. Proof enough?

Furthermore, the necessity of having a LFIM has increased as fitness levels have also increased and allowed coaches to put more players around stoppages. This importance was underscored by Damian Barrett who on Friday wrote "If we're talking about Sam Mitchell ... ... we pose this question: is his title as best exponent of an opposite foot kick under threat? Yep, it is. Angus Brayshaw has arrived." If it wasn't important, why mention it?

Also, this principle is hardly new. Most soccer teams will have a left-footed and right-footed wingers to give better ball protection.

The only thing in your arsenal is to draw comparisons with better footballers at other teams.

Principle holds for any team with LFIMs.

This is crap. Suban has more appearances at centre bouncedowns than Barlow this year.

Barlow's playing more high half forward, so perhaps he drops out of that quartet. So what! With so many players now going through there, including Walters, you cannot establish a link between overall centre clearances to Suban's performance. It's the classic attempt of trying to tie causation with correlation without valid evidence.

The rest of your post was nonsense. Stick to the subject rather that trying to make a personal argument that you will lose.

So it's acceptable for you to mock other poster's comments as hilarious and then get all precious when fire is returned? Hypocrite

 

[clogged]

Barlow's playing more high half forward, so perhaps he drops out of that quartet. So what!

You can't even get basics about present team structure right. Bit rich to have a go at my observations when yours are well off the mark.

Fallacy of large numbers (there's a fallacy? I think you mean law) only applies to actual large numbers.

As it stands, Suban started as sub today. Given it was wet and he is good in those conditions I think it could be considered a warning for him to lift his game.

Edit: also I watched the first quarter of the Richmond match earlier this week. Centre square starters were Fyfe, Mundy, Hill, Neale, Suban and Pav in order of number of appearances. Barlow was only there once.

 

[E Shed]

Freo have arguably improved this year because he has whittled down the number of one dimensional role players to zero (I wouldn't even consider Suban that). But is it still as talented a best 22 as it could be? Will it be more talented than other sides it must face in the top four?

This is the point I keep coming back to.
We have people saying things like it doesn't matter if Taberner can't mark or Mayne doesn't kick goals or If Suban only gets 12 possessions, gives away 2 or 3 frees and bombs the ball blindly half the time. Because they are are playing roles (apparently) their obvious deficiencies are not considered important.
I tend to think if we had Darling, Gunston and say Hepple doing the roles of the 3 examples above we could just about engrave Fremantle on the cup this year.
Its why I believe we need to fast track Blakely and Weller into the team. We just aren't going to topple the Hawks or Sydney with good honest players like Suban in the midfield.
I like Suban and its unfair to single him out like I just did but I'm using him as an example of the general principle that we have to lift the quality of the bottom few players in the team. I'm looking around the competition and just not seeing us as the best team in it. We are held together by discipline and hard work but its not going to be enough or at least I don't think it will be.
We can still have the discipline and hard work part using more talented players.

 

[ydraw]

This is the point I keep coming back to.
We have people saying things like it doesn't matter if Taberner can't mark or Mayne doesn't kick goals or If Suban only gets 12 possessions, gives away 2 or 3 frees and bombs the ball blindly half the time. Because they are are playing roles (apparently) their obvious deficiencies are not considered important.

It's a bit different in Taberner's case since we have no other option to play that position. On the other hand we have quite a few choices in regards to smalls we could bring in. There's nothing particularly special about Mayne or Suban that Crozier/Weller/Blakely couldn't play their role or a role similar to it. But the replacement for Taberner has to be 6'3" or taller, that's not really optional.

I agree 100% that if we had another key forward to try out who maybe had a bigger upside then we should try them. But we don't. And going back to having Pavlich as our only key forward is not really an option. With Apeness also injured we really do have no other choice at this point than to get games into Taberner and hope he improves. For that reason I really wish Lyon would stop subbing him off every game.

Our recruiters have definitely failed on the key forward front. We've let the key forward situation drift to the point that even if we do find a replacement for Pavlich then we're still going to be a tall forward short.

 

[Scham]

This is the point I keep coming back to.
We have people saying things like it doesn't matter if Taberner can't mark or Mayne doesn't kick goals or If Suban only gets 12 possessions, gives away 2 or 3 frees and bombs the ball blindly half the time. Because they are are playing roles (apparently) their obvious deficiencies are not considered important.
I tend to think if we had Darling, Gunston and say Hepple doing the roles of the 3 examples above we could just about engrave Fremantle on the cup this year.
Its why I believe we need to fast track Blakely and Weller into the team. We just aren't going to topple the Hawks or Sydney with good honest players like Suban in the midfield.
I like Suban and its unfair to single him out like I just did but I'm using him as an example of the general principle that we have to lift the quality of the bottom few players in the team. I'm looking around the competition and just not seeing us as the best team in it. We are held together by discipline and hard work but its not going to be enough or at least I don't think it will be.
We can still have the discipline and hard work part using more talented players.

Absolutely spot on! The other factor that we're relying on other than discipline and hard work is Fyfe. We currently have a massive reliance on him.

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

Its why I believe we need to fast track Blakely and Weller into the team. We just aren't going to topple the Hawks or Sydney with good honest players like Suban in the midfield.

I'm really interested to hear why you're so confident in the abilities of those two to the extent that they will be the difference in toppling the top sides this year as you stated. Next year with another pre-season under their belt and a year under Ross and his system I would have no arguments getting them in. Not having a shot, just not sure where the supreme faith in the draftees is coming from, definitely prepared to be swayed but I'm just not sure what the basis for all the hype is. Blakely is probably the more advanced of the two, but from what I have seen and heard he is still fairly inconsistent. Both are hardly sighted at training when I've been down, and I haven't missed many sessions this year. Great game from Blakely last week granted but a quiet one the game before. Both still have slight frames and personally I query their endurance for AFL level. Interested any insights you can offer.

To be clear, I agree there are several of our fringe 22 that can be improved upon. We are hardly that far ahead of the pack that we can be satisfied with our entire list, there's always room for improvement. As it stands I think Suban is potentially on his way out of the 22 given he started as sub yesterday in conditions primed for his strengths, so we may soon get to see if they can step up and grab their opportunity this year. If we can manage an upgrade on Suban in the 22 going forward then our list will be in ripping shape.

 

[E Shed]

I'm really interested to hear why you're so confident in the abilities of those two to the extent that they will be the difference in toppling the top sides as you stated. Not having a shot, just not sure where the supreme faith in the draftees is coming from, definitely prepared to be swayed but I'm just not sure what the basis for all the hype is. Blakely is probably the more advanced of the two, but from what I have seen and heard he is still fairly inconsistent. Both are hardly sighted at training when I've been down, and I haven't missed many sessions this year. Great game from Blakely last week granted but a quiet one the game before. Both still have slight frames and personally I query their endurance for AFL level. Interested any insights you can offer.

To be clear, I agree there are several of our fringe 22 that can be improved upon. We are hardly that far ahead of the pack that we can be satisfied with our entire list, there's always room for improvement. As it stands I think Suban is potentially on his way out of the 22 given he started as sub yesterday in conditions primed for his strengths, so we may soon get to see if they can step up and grab their opportunity this year. If we can manage an upgrade on Suban in the 22 going forward then our list will be in ripping shape.

I go on things like awareness, peripheral vision, decision making, execution and the intangible (mostly) factor of class.

Weller is well balanced, quick, clean and classy. There are 2 things thought that particularly elevate him for me at this stage. One is that he has that ability Walters and Hill have where he seems to be able to weigh up what is ahead and choose not just the right option at the time but that he creates the play with his kick to lead a player to where he thinks they should be. And he weights the ball exquisitely so that it arrives at the right time for that to occur. In short he has not just just superior kicking mechanics but also superior decision making. The second thing that I really rate is he's hard. Hard at it, a hard tackler and he looks like he wants to win the ball in every contest.

Blakely reminds me of Hasleby. He's just got it. A ball magnet with 360 degree vision and lightening hands. Lachie Neale in a bigger body.

It may be that they aren't developed enough to make a difference this year and that they won't get the chance anyway but I would want to give them both a chance to show what they've got if it was possible. I'm not saying it will or should happen. Its just what I'd do but I'm not getting paid to do it or having to take the heat if it doesn't work so its easy for me to say it from my armchair.

 

[E Shed]

I forgot to add, they've both got smarts for days. And composure. Thats where they are going to be better than a Suban.

 

[clogged]

We all know what Ross rates, fitness and full commitment to the game plan. Suban and others have this, Blakely and Weller don't get.

But I contrast that to Clarkson picking Stuart Dew. There's no way Dew would have passed the required skinfolds test at any club, but Clarkson backed him in. As it turned out, it was a brilliant pick. Dew's 10 minutes in the 2008 GF broke Geelong.

I don't think that risk vs reward equation would make sense in Ross's system. The reward of what Dew could do in a few minutes of a big final wouldn't be worth the risk of having a very flabby hole in the defence 22 weeks of the year.

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

I forgot to add, they've both got smarts for days. And composure. Thats where they are going to be better than a Suban.

Yeah no arguments from me there. Guess I just wonder what sort of impact they will make this early on, given there impact has been inconsistent at WAFL level. Both definitely appear to have more going for them in the mid to long term, this year I'm just not as convinced as others. Thanks for your insight, not blowing smoke but I do appreciate your posts, I think some are on the bandwagon with the two young pups but you've given some food for thought here.

2016 I think without further improvement and consistency I think Subes may find himself as a permanent depth player.

 

[E Shed]

Yeah no arguments from me there. Guess I just wonder what sort of impact they will make this early on, given there impact has been inconsistent at WAFL level. Both definitely appear to have more going for them in the mid to long term, this year I'm just not as convinced as others. Thanks for your insight, not blowing smoke but I do appreciate your posts, I think some are on the bandwagon with the two young pups but you've given some food for thought here.

2016 I think without further improvement and consistency I think Subes may find himself as a permanent depth player.

Cheers mate. I think we could sneak Weller in for Sheridan without losing much and then in a different match give a Suban a day off for Blakely. You soon see if they are good to go and I'd back them to contribute as least as much as the guys they replace.

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

Cheers mate. I think we could sneak Weller in for Sheridan without losing much and then in a different match give a Suban a day off for Blakely. You soon see if they are good to go and I'd back them to contribute as least as much as the guys they replace.

Yeah the longer it goes without either Sheridan or Suban making consistent meaningful contribution, they are probably playing their way out. Depends how important Suban's current role is to The Boss and how much patience he has for Sheridan to step up. Thought Suban was quality against Adelaide but hasn't maintained it. Sheridan besides that running goal a few weeks back at home has hardly been sighted.

 

[clogged]

Cheers mate. I think we could sneak Weller in for Sheridan without losing much and then in a different match give a Suban a day off for Blakely. You soon see if they are good to go and I'd back them to contribute as least as much as the guys they replace.

I think Ross would look at it as Sheridan having 5 preseasons and knowing the game plan vs Weller having 1 preseason and still learning. He said at the start of the season that he doesn't believe recent draftees are physically ready for AFL football.

 

[E Shed]

I think Ross would look at it as Sheridan having 5 preseasons and knowing the game plan vs Weller having 1 preseason and still learning. He said at the start of the season that he doesn't believe recent draftees are physically ready for AFL football.

No doubt. And yet all over the league they are making an impact.
This year is our window. I can't help but think I'd rather have the ball in the hands of Blakely in the last 5 minutes on Grand Final day than some of our less composed players. Its roll the dice time for me to get every % difference we can.

 

[Scham]

Cheers mate. I think we could sneak Weller in for Sheridan without losing much and then in a different match give a Suban a day off for Blakely. You soon see if they are good to go and I'd back them to contribute as least as much as the guys they replace.

Blakely looks to be having another good game today. He really can't do much more after what he's shown in the preseason games and WAFL so far.

He should replace Suban for the Pies clash.

 

[Grandstan]

No doubt. And yet all over the league they are making an impact.
This year is our window. I can't help but think I'd rather have the ball in the hands of Blakely in the last 5 minutes on Grand Final day than some of our less composed players. Its roll the dice time for me to get every % difference we can.

The question isn't just whose hands you'd rather the ball was in come GF day, the question is who would be better in a one-on-one on the wing, at holding a tackle, guarding the space, covering for his teammates or stepping in front of Franklin or Roughhead.
Football is a team game, and while it's nice to imagine individual genius is waiting in the wings, it's hard to buy that RTB and the coaching team have no idea.

 

[clogged]

The question isn't just whose hands you'd rather the ball was in come GF day, the question is who would be better in a one-on-one on the wing, at holding a tackle, guarding the space, covering for his teammates or stepping in front of Franklin or Roughhead.
Football is a team game, and while it's nice to imagine individual genius is waiting in the wings, it's hard to buy that RTB and the coaching team have no idea.

And yet all the GFs Lyon has coached in have found him searching for that X factor - line breaking pace, goal kicking, you name it. Lovett, Peake, Sylvia, Gumbleton weren't recruited because Lyon needed space guarded when it mattered.

 

[Grandstan]

X factor is an excuse for a lack of imagination.
Did Sydney lack x factor last year?

 

[clogged]

X factor is an excuse for a lack of imagination.
Did Sydney lack x factor last year?

What does Sydney have to do with Lyon coached teams struggling to kick more than 9 goals in GFs?

 

[Grandstan]

What does Sydney have to do with Lyon coached teams struggling to kick more than 9 goals in GFs?

Lyon-coached teams? Really?

 

[clogged]

Lyon-coached teams? Really?

Yes, really.

St Kilda scored 68, 68, and 52 in his time, and Freo got 62 in 2013.

Only once in the past 30 years would those scores been a winning grand final score - 2005. He is well aware of the fact that his sides need to score more (often cites 100 points per game and top four in points for as the benchmark, two things Freo still isn't good at).

So the question is, do you sacrifice the defensive part of the game to risk more scores? Should a guy who is good at blocking space be removed for someone who can conceivably create two more goals per game?

 

[Grandstan]

Yes, really.

St Kilda scored 68, 68, and 52 in his time, and Freo got 62 in 2013.

Only once in the past 30 years would those scores been a winning grand final score - 2005. He is well aware of the fact that his sides need to score more (often cites 100 points per game and top four in defence as the benchmark, two things Freo still isn't good at).

So the question is, do you sacrifice the defensive part of the game to risk more scores? Should a guy who is good at blocking space be removed for someone who can conceivably create two more goals per game?

You buy this idea that a coach with the success rate of Lyon should be written off because his teams fell at the final hurdle. I don't. It strikes me as a rationalisation, or post hoc fallacy.