No Passengers - Round 8

[Kildonan]

Welcome to No Passengers - a weekly thread for Dream Team enthusiasts.

Each week in No Passengers we would like to discuss topics like value players for trades, Captain selection, Rookie players, future trades and Individual player critiques.

To start with follow the links to see Player Critiques on:

Brent Stanton (week 3)
Brett Burton (week 3)
Travis Johnstone (week 4)
Sam Mitchell (week 4)
Heath Scotland (week 5)
Daniel Cross (week 5)
Travis Cloke (week 5)
Daniel Cross (week 6)
Jason Porplyzia (week 6)
Dane Swan (week 7)
Jake King (week 7)
Nick Stevens (week 7)

Also we have a short discussion on the Choice of Captain and a discussion thread

There is still more of this weeks thread to come.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Went to the SCG for a look yesterday (great day) and Hill's time is up.

Looked tired, no real spark and did not appear to get a heap of TOG. I would be very surprised if he holds his place next match with Ray knocking on the door soon and Harbrow in the wings. Probably need to factor him in as an upgrade soon. Johnno the obvious if you don't have him but Chappy and ROK are extremely well priced given they have both been in the top 7 forwards for the last 2 seasons. ROK pushed a long way up the ground to get his touches and played very well.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Went to the SCG for a look yesterday (great day) and Hill's time is up.

Looked tired, no real spark and did not appear to get a heap of TOG. I would be very surprised if he holds his place next match with Ray knocking on the door soon and Harbrow in the wings. Probably need to factor him in as an upgrade soon. Johnno the obvious if you don't have him but Chappy and ROK are extremely well priced given they have both been in the top 7 forwards for the last 2 seasons. ROK pushed a long way up the ground to get his touches and played very well.

I've been wanting to trade Hill for a couple of weeks now but i just can't see any forward cash cows that would be good downgrade options. Henry Playfair looked alright for Sydney and at the moment he would be the best option but probably won't hold his spot once Hall is back. All the same if he plays all the games up until Hall is back he could net a bit of a profit. I was hoping Valenti of Melbourne would have been promoted and i could have got him but it seems that Melbourne aren't going to promote him.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Why go down Jolldo, go up. Chappy, ROK, Johnno. Dump a midfield cow for Browne and boost the forwards.

Morton down to Browne is almost a done deal for me this week as long as he is selected. As for the going up i hadn't really considered it as i planned to get in Bartel or Corey next week. Now that you mention it i will definitely weigh it up before deciding what to do. I have Johnson so i can't get him and if i am going to upgrade i want to upgrade to someone better than ROK. Chapman is definitely one for me to consider. Geelong are playing Richmond this week and from memory in less than half a game last year he scored 90 odd points before going off injured. This would mean if you want Chapman now is the time.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

He actually scored 70 and went off about 2 mins into the 2nd quarter. Looked like breaking the all time DT record.

Other 3 upcoming opponents are Pies, Kangas and Blues. 56 against the Pies in Prelim last year but other 5 games against these 3 teams last year were 97 or above (average 111). Clearly bottomed out and probably the best value player in any position at this time given he was the number 1 forward last season.

 

[iamthestig]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Morton down to Browne is almost a done deal for me this week as long as he is selected. As for the going up i hadn't really considered it as i planned to get in Bartel or Corey next week. Now that you mention it i will definitely weigh it up before deciding what to do. I have Johnson so i can't get him and if i am going to upgrade i want to upgrade to someone better than ROK. Chapman is definitely one for me to consider. Geelong are playing Richmond this week and from memory in less than half a game last year he scored 90 odd points before going off injured. This would mean if you want Chapman now is the time.

As you said earlier, unfortunately there are not many forward options to choose (at least at the moment and I don't see a plethora on the horizon). I think the main way to get guns into the forward line this year is by downgrading in other areas and plugging the cash into your Hill's, your Vince's, your Gamble's and your Rioli's; these types of blokes (Gary Ayres still haunts me!). If you choose to downgrade to the forward fringe players you might be stuck with 0's later in the season when they can't get a game. As forwards the main job is to kick goals and it is much harder - although not impossible - for rookies to succeed and keep their spot if they have a couple of down weeks, even more so if they got a game because a better player was injured/suspended.

 

[banana_bus]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Hey guys, Im back from a one week bigfooty hiatus.

This week brings up the Steven Browne opportunity. I listened to talk-back after both of his games, and have only heard praise for his skills and calmness. He is playing really well.

Anyone with Cale Morton or Craig Bird should seriously be considering trading them in for Browne, and picking up a nice sum for future upgrades. Bird may be dropped, and has probably almost peaked anyway. Morton has definitely peaked.

Swan and Corey are the 2 under-priced midfield guns at the moment. Look to upgrade to them in the next 2-3 weeks. Chapman is also underpriced in the forwards. Peter Burgoyne is not the most consistent DTer, so he will be at this price again sometime throughout the season.

Symes is a worry for most bigfooty DTers, as most seem to have him. If he is out for more than more weeks, look to trade, especially if you have no cover for him.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

You're right about Browne. He is a prime target for those with Morton/Bird.
I think Bird has probably peaked, but I dont think Morton has - I believe he still has quite a bit to give. Sure, he will drop in price again this week, but he has shown that he can at least hold his current value for a while. The other thing with Morton is that he is more likely than Bird to retain his place in the side, in fact I believe he will play the majority of the season.
If you have one of them and don't have Browne, I'd definitely downgrade this week, but if you're like me and have both then I'll just downgrade Bird and keep Morton for longer.

 

[theone5]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Hey guys.
I have been busy for a good week or so now due to many different reasons and i will remain busy for awhile but i am going to try and respond a little bit over the next coming days to what has been said.
As to this topic, it will be R.Dyson to S.Browne for me this week.
With D.Swan and P.Chapman having break-evens of over 100 and with my only possible upgrade targets in B.Houli, R.Palmer, K.Jack, C.Rioli, R.Gamble and K.Tippett all still rising, i will hold off at least 1 more week before i pick up another gun.

 

[iamthestig]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

You're right about Browne. He is a prime target for those with Morton/Bird.
I think Bird has probably peaked, but I dont think Morton has - I believe he still has quite a bit to give. Sure, he will drop in price again this week, but he has shown that he can at least hold his current value for a while. The other thing with Morton is that he is more likely than Bird to retain his place in the side, in fact I believe he will play the majority of the season.
If you have one of them and don't have Browne, I'd definitely downgrade this week, but if you're like me and have both then I'll just downgrade Bird and keep Morton for longer.

I don't think Bird has peaked yet. I still think he has a bit of rising to do but he is nearing the peak (based on his current average) and therefore he is going to slow down. Most people try to upgrade/downgrade a rookie when they have peaked but not trading Bird this week might cost you $80k.

Bird might make $20k more and that might take 3 more weeks. Assuming Browne gets 3 more games and keeps up his current average, he will double in price in the same period. Just because Bird isn't at his peak yet, doesn't mean he shouldn't be trade bait.

Browne getting games is the biggest risk here, but if you think he can get the games then this trade is a no brainer. Some people would prefer Cotchin but he costs 40 grand more and is no guarantee to be better. If he is then you can always milk another cow like Morton, and the extra couple of weeks could add $15-20k to Morton's price. Bird to Browne will be very popular this week, almost as popular as Cotchin 2 weeks after his first game.

 

[iamthestig]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I saw this in the public thread. Does anyone have any stats on wet v dry?

Well, brent-83 answered my question... consistency (albeit, via selection of erratic players who become consistent)!

New question, another one I've always speculated about, but never seen enough games to nut it out. This one is based on weather, and it's effect on late season form.

Each year there are guys who are known to start slow, but by mid-year, start to find another gear. Goodes is the bright, shining example of this. Then there are guys who just love playing in the wet; thrive on it. Bartel is your man here. And maybe Chad to some extent.

So, my thoughts are these. Maybe it's less to do with finding form as the season runs on, and more to do with the fact that the weather gets wetter as the season goes on (moving into winter and all...). Do the stats back it up? Is Goodes a wet weather specialist too? How does Jimmy do in the dry vs the wet (probably an average of 102 instead of 108... ha...)?

And if there is any semblance of truth in this... how should this affect your drafting strategy? For example, lot of folks talking about bringing in Corey or Bartel. But if Corey's performance takes a dive in the wet, should you pick Bartel for a trade at this point in the season?

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I saw this in the public thread. Does anyone have any stats on wet v dry?
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebaxters
Well, brent-83 answered my question... consistency (albeit, via selection of erratic players who become consistent)!

New question, another one I've always speculated about, but never seen enough games to nut it out. This one is based on weather, and it's effect on late season form.

Each year there are guys who are known to start slow, but by mid-year, start to find another gear. Goodes is the bright, shining example of this. Then there are guys who just love playing in the wet; thrive on it. Bartel is your man here. And maybe Chad to some extent.

So, my thoughts are these. Maybe it's less to do with finding form as the season runs on, and more to do with the fact that the weather gets wetter as the season goes on (moving into winter and all...). Do the stats back it up? Is Goodes a wet weather specialist too? How does Jimmy do in the dry vs the wet (probably an average of 102 instead of 108... ha...)?

And if there is any semblance of truth in this... how should this affect your drafting strategy? For example, lot of folks talking about bringing in Corey or Bartel. But if Corey's performance takes a dive in the wet, should you pick Bartel for a trade at this point in the season?

No stats but the style of player would make it reasonably obvious. Key forwards will struggle in the wet yet their average tends to increase as the year goes on and everyone else gets tired. Any player relying on contested marks (or marks in general) would have a lower score as the ball is harder to control.

Conversely, in and under players who tackle and live at the stoppages will naturally increase their scoring capacity. Strong bodied mids like Rodan always do well in the wet.

The 2 main grounds where it can have an impact are AAMI and the MCG. It actually rains more at the start of the season at the SCG and Gabba than through winter. The Dome is fine for obvious reasons and there are not a lot of wet games at Subi unless it actually rains during the match because of the sand base drying quickly. Too hard to isolate IMO unless you were focussed on say Crows / Power players and even then they may only get 2 wet games in the back half of the season. It might be one factor to sway you away from picking up a Burton type but not many would go down that road anyway.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Anyone who bags anything that Cox does is basically shot down in flames and rightly so, the guy is a DT god. I have, however, been researching this week and decided to field the punches which are undoubtedly forthcoming.

I had never really looked at this before but had a lingering doubt in my mind that Cox slightly disappointed me in the back half of last season so I did some quick numbers of first half to 2nd half for the big fella over the last 3 years. Last year he held on well until Rd 14 before tapering but here are the numbers.

2005
-----
First 11 rounds______Avge 101
2nd 11 rounds______ Avge 92

2006
------
First 11 rounds______ Avge 105
Last 11 rounds______ Avge 85

2007
------
First 14 Rounds______ Avge 105
Last 8 Rounds_______ Avge 95


Injuries clearly had an impact in the back half of 2006 but the numbers over an extended period do not lie.

Disclaimer - He's still a DT god.

 

[Crows88]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I have Bird & Morton sitting on my bench and I am going to downgrade one of them to Browne. I have 75% decided tonight that I will trade Symes for Burgoyne this week. This will leave me with Ellis to upgrade next week. Unfortunately this means I will have to take his 20,000 drop (being conservative) but I will look to trade him to Goddard next week.

Then next moves I have in mind will be upgrading Rioli to Chapman when each has peaked/bottomed out respectively...

I am just waiting for that Cotchin train to take off aswell so I can jump on from one of Bird and Morton. Now with Coughlan's injury today this may be even sooner!!

 

[Cat for Life]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Anyone who bags anything that Cox does is basically shot down in flames and rightly so, the guy is a DT god. I have, however, been researching this week and decided to field the punches which are undoubtedly forthcoming.

I had never really looked at this before but had a lingering doubt in my mind that Cox slightly disappointed me in the back half of last season so I did some quick numbers of first half to 2nd half for the big fella over the last 3 years. Last year he held on well until Rd 14 before tapering but here are the numbers.

2005
-----
First 11 rounds______Avge 101
2nd 11 rounds______ Avge 92

2006
------
First 11 rounds______ Avge 105
Last 11 rounds______ Avge 85

2007
------
First 14 Rounds______ Avge 105
Last 8 Rounds_______ Avge 95


Injuries clearly had an impact in the back half of 2006 but the numbers over an extended period do not lie.

Disclaimer - He's still a DT god.

Very interesting stat. I think part of this can be put down to the eagles easing him up a little to set him for the finals once they have cemented their spot.

That will definitely not be the case this year, however, it will be interesting to see what approach they will take later on in the year when there is nothing to play for. Worsfold is a proud man, so I think (hoping) that he wont put the big Cox in cotton wool.

 

[Cat for Life]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Symes is a real worry for me, is a keeper if fit, but is not in the category where you would carry him for multiple weeks, especially if you're coping zeroes along the way.

Unfortunately I think I'm forced to keep him and cop the zero this week, I have other trades that need to be made. Browne is too good to pass up, and with Jones' performance last week I don't want him in my team any longer. It will also get me the cash to upgrade Hill to BJ this week, and then allow me to upgrade Bird next week.

I'm hoping Chad is back in a week, so I think I'll just ride Symes' injury out.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Very interesting stat. I think part of this can be put down to the eagles easing him up a little to set him for the finals once they have cemented their spot.

That will definitely not be the case this year, however, it will be interesting to see what approach they will take later on in the year when there is nothing to play for. Worsfold is a proud man, so I think (hoping) that he wont put the big Cox in cotton wool.

Actually thought about this more today CFL and I don't think they will ease him off. All Australian ruckman honours would be on the line so it would be a cruel move to put him to pasture with 4-6 weeks to go. I think he will probably go the distance.

 

[thebaxters]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Symes - not a keeper all season. He's great value at this point where there are no other standouts and form/injury question marks over other big names (Cornes, Bowden), but I can't see him in the Top 7 at the end of the year. I had him in as a speculative pick to make me some money to trade for Cornes/Bowden, but I see his form as being correlated with the absence of regular Adelaide mids. When they're back, I'd expect a return to the scores of his first 3 weeks; serviceable but nothing outstanding. From what I've heard, Craig likes him, but he doesn't have the dedicated position of someone like Guerra, Birchall, Johncock - all consistent 70+ players,and with a better historical track record. If he's out for maybe 4 or 5, time to go.

BJ - really has me worried. Seems a gimme to bring him in at under 320K, given his incredible consistency of years past, but I have this nagging feeling that nothing being said about this niggling injury at 30+ means it's still there, will be for the season, and that the consistency may suffer. Reminds me of Barry Hall last year. I suspect that if the Dogs were 2 and 5, he'd probably be given a spell. I'm thinking of passing him up and getting Chapman instead (next week). Hoping like buggery it doesn't come back to bite me.

Riewoldt - sure traded him in at the wrong time. Again, the lack of information about his injury has me worried, but I have more confidence in him stringing together 100+ scores as a young buck. Plus the Saints don't seem to be playing like they want to make finals, so I reckon he'll be cherry ripe when he comes back, prob after the mid-season break.

Bird - if he got more TOG, then I think he'd have room for improvement, but he's averaging something close to 50 minutes a game on the pine, and I don't see Roos giving him more. In fact, I think he's a chance to get dropped for a few weeks, and probably back in after the mid-season break. I think Roos is actively trying to get a fair bit of new blood through this year. Sadly, Bird is no Swan burst-type player for that limited TOG.

Cox - Woosha might be a proud man, and Coxy might want AA honours, but if the Eagles are still flailing by Round 16, and I was Woosha, I'd be swallowing my pride and "managing" his injuries - giving Coxy less TOG in the middle, and even shipping him off for surgery (if required). That foot won't be getting any better if he keeps shooting it up and running on it. Plus there is the Rich carrot...

 

[Cat for Life]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I disagree somewhat with Symes, if he's a fit he's definitely a keeper.
I don't think the return of the midfield players will have that much of an impact on him, I was at the Dome for the first game against the Bulldogs wehn Reilly was still running around, Symes played on the wing and got plenty of midfield time. The reason he didn't score that well was more due to getting used to a new game plan, and the free against that he gave away.

I wouldn't be too upset either if he's pushed back to the half back line, doubt it though unless McLeoud moves forward permanently, he plays the role quite well.

He'll definitely average 70 for the year, if not 80. Even from his first year, Symes has never had a problem finding the ball and racking up the cheap marks. The only danger I see is if he's not in the side, but as has been said NC is a fan and I think he's in their best 22.

Having said all that, if he's out for a while, then trading him is not a bad idea at all, especially with the low prices of some of the backs atm.

 

[Crows88]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I believe Symes would've been borderline keeper. The only mid we (the crows) have coming back who will impact on symes is Reilly. Symes played mostly off an upper half back flank/wing position rotatin through there with the likes of knights, van berlo and Mackay. Sure with Reilly back it will impact on his time around the stppages a little but as we all knwo from his Port Adelaide days he is a magnet! I support the SANFL club (central districts) he plays for so saw him alot last year and lets just say if there was an SANFL dream team he would've been the Bartel/Corey of the competition. I believe his score will drop a little when he gets back because he will need to find his place in the rotations again but he will still find the footy.

However, personally I have nicoski and pfeiffer/s.d.thompson covering for syms and cornes at the moment and I don't think I could bear to have these 3 play again, so I wll be loking to go symes to Burgoyne. Especially because the injury list says 2-3 and I think he may still be in his moon boot (was 2 days ago).

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I just did some research on Beau Waters suspecting that his scores in losing games were significantly lower than his scores in winning games. However this was not the case. It turns out that his scores over the last 2 seasons his scores are relatively the same in losing and winning games. This is why I though he was scoring poorly this season but seeing he has been omitted with an injury this week it is possible he has been carrying this injury the last 4 weeks, justifying his lower scores of 40,67,61 and 46 in the last month.

 

[iamthestig]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I just did some research on Beau Waters suspecting that his scores in losing games were significantly lower than his scores in winning games. However this was not the case. It turns out that his scores over the last 2 seasons his scores are relatively the same in losing and winning games. This is why I though he was scoring poorly this season but seeing he has been omitted with an injury this week it is possible he has been carrying this injury the last 4 weeks, justifying his lower scores of 40,67,61 and 46 in the last month.

I don't understand the drop off either, and I hope the injury was at the root of the scores, and a week off will get him back in a 85+ mood. I can't keep carrying these 0's and if I fix every problem that develops in the backs I'll spend 20 trades there. Not panic stations yet but the luck has to turn soon... doesn't it... please?

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I disagree somewhat with Symes, if he's a fit he's definitely a keeper.
I don't think the return of the midfield players will have that much of an impact on him, I was at the Dome for the first game against the Bulldogs wehn Reilly was still running around, Symes played on the wing and got plenty of midfield time. The reason he didn't score that well was more due to getting used to a new game plan, and the free against that he gave away.

I wouldn't be too upset either if he's pushed back to the half back line, doubt it though unless McLeoud moves forward permanently, he plays the role quite well.

He'll definitely average 70 for the year, if not 80. Even from his first year, Symes has never had a problem finding the ball and racking up the cheap marks. The only danger I see is if he's not in the side, but as has been said NC is a fan and I think he's in their best 22.

Having said all that, if he's out for a while, then trading him is not a bad idea at all, especially with the low prices of some of the backs atm.

Good post. I agree with you. I made a similar post in one of the backline threads that Symes should get just as many points (if not more) playing across halfback or even in the back 50 compared to on the wing. You just have to look at Johncock and McLeod to see that the Crows backline is conducive to high DT points.
He may not make the top 7, but I reckon he will average high enough to be considered a keeper. 80+ is definitely achievable in my view. With the backline in the mess it is currently in, I'm very hesitant to make any trades there unless it involves a LTI. It's as bad as a WWII minefield down back this season.

 

[thebaxters]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

CFL, Crows88 - fair points re Symes. I guess I just didn't select him pre-season with the intention of him being in my 22 at the end of the season, so on that basis, and with some supposedly premium backs at bargain-bin prices, I figure now is as good a time as any to make the upgrade.

This is probably my key dilemna with DT this year. I'm in Texas, and the tyranny of distance is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the extremely limited availability of games over here (get 3 random games per week on satellite) means I have to rely on the numbers to generate my thoughts and decisions. The flipside of this being I am emotionally removed from the decisions, and can be more objective in my assessments. This year, my players are stat generators and nothing more...

So I defer to your judgment on the impact of midfielders returning. I just looked at the numbers and saw the first 3 games averaging 63, then a jump, looked at potential reasons (not sure Rd5 should count, because it was against the Dockers!) and drew a conclusion. Sometimes 1+1 does not equal 2!

I think it would be good to put out a bit of info on BJ this week. He's a clear trade target for many, and I had asked 54Dogs in a PM about his Chappy over BJ trade decision. The gist of it is 54Dogs already has him, I expressed my personal dilemna over him, I understood it was a "hip" injury, and I'm wary that the club hasn't come out and said anything about it not being an injury requiring management for the rest of the season. Shades of 2007 Barry Hall to me. Thought I'd bring the current state of discussion onto the main board...

Was originally a hip / groin in Rd 2 but got over that and picked up the calf the next week in Rd3. Moved all over the ground against the Swans so is on the improve (I hope)

I dunno, if the hip/groin is a legit injury, it's not something you get over that quickly. I reckon they're probably giving him what he needs to play the games out, but can't be on the improve while he's still running. The only reason he's probably out there is that he is Mr "I eat galvanised nails for breakfast with my eggs" BJ. He is one tough SOB.

This is really one I'm struggling with. It goes against my better instincts to bring him in under what my gut tells me is an injury that will require management all season, but it's BJ. Mr Dependable.

What could we tell folks about these types of undisclosed injuries? Is there established history of players playing successfully through the season with them? It's a long way to the finals from Rd8 after all. Is it Hall/Judd/Ball all over again? Would BJ even be out there if the Dogs weren't playing winning footy?

 

[theone5]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Speaking of B.Symes, i am looking at "downgrading" him this week rather than "upgrading" him as my upgrade targets in C.Cornes and J.Drummond are set to fall.
Sure, i could take a P.Burgoyne or D.Milburn who are the next best in my opinion but i have concerns over both of them.

I am looking at trading B.Symes for D.Myers a week early because next week, there will be plenty of upgrade targets and i want the cash and the flexibility to make two of them.