Opinion Non-Crows AFL 13: Cyclone Season

[Scorpus]

if deemed 'best 22' they were hardly their top 10-15 players

surely you arent arguing what a massive leg up the academies have been:

• pick up guns at way under market value (20% discount)
• often allows teams to 'hide' their academy players and they go for unders on draft night as list managers pay relatively less attention to players outside of their scope of drafting (many examples, see Gulden)
• picking up local lads logically sees much better long term retention (why we all love picking up gun sa juniors like tt and draper)
• picking up local lads logically avoids having to compete with massive interstate offers and pay overs to keep
• having elite draftees almost certainly heading your way (see suns last 3 years inc 4 top 10 and 3 top 5 players) allows list management to much better PLAN and EXECUTE overall list management goals as they already can effectively lock in certain positions come draft night, or even knowing say walter and read were coming as kpf/ruck in 2023 meaning they didnt need to bid for other players in that, or adjacent drafts). j reid said this is a MASSIVE point people dont realise about the academies - its clearly one of the biggest advantages

all up, we are likely to see suns and lions win the majority of flags the next handful of years and we know who to thank for this

I think the level to which they have been an advantage has been overblown. Brisbane are the only club to have success under the model so far, which has been in place for over a decade

It also ignores that Brisbane don't actually have many Academy players on their list. The Ashcrofts were father-son, which all clubs have access to. The rest of their list was built normally for the most part.

I think the setup partially counters the go-home factor in trades. The Northern states have practically zero go home trades because most players are from Victoria. That is something Victoria benefits from that, say, Gold Coast don't.

 

[Scorpus]

They have a production line of academy players for whom they dont really pay full tote for, potentially until this year anyway.

Flanders is a good player of course, but even he was playing half back because that side is so stacked.

Not all of that is down to being terrible. They made the 8 last year and had 4 picks inside 20

They had four picks inside 20 at the draft but they also started the year with three first round picks to use and traded Flanders for a top 10 pick

They benefitted a bit from the system but didn't just get everyone for free. They had a massive stockpile of picks

 

[pjcrows]

Are people forgetting that Gold Coast had to get rid of four best 22 players last season and give up four first round picks to get all those players in 2025?

They're definitely advantaged by the Academy system and previous handouts but this is a good post. You need to give up capital to lure established stars. We don't do that enough.

 

[ABAB]

They're definitely advantaged by the Academy system and previous handouts but this is a good post. You need to give up capital to lure established stars. We don't do that enough.

We gave them pick 5 for Rankine, clearly didn't have too since they throw picks like confetti.

 

[Scorpus]

Before the trade period Gold Coast had picks 6, 13, 16 and 31

They traded all of those picks, plus a 2026 1st and 2nd, plus Flanders, Ainsworth, Fiorini, Budarick and Rosas for (effectively) Petracca, picks 2, 5, 17, 18 and 28. They also got JUH basically for free

The Academy system probably gave them one extra first round pick of value. But they spent a LOT to get those players. It wasn't just handouts

 

[Cromulant]

They're definitely advantaged by the Academy system and previous handouts but this is a good post. You need to give up capital to lure established stars. We don't do that enough.

Because we dont have the same capital

 

[spenze]

No we didnt.

The Gold Coast gave up 3 firsts and STILL were able to take 4 top 20 picks, including 2 top 10s.

The system that allows that to occur is broken.

That wasn’t what I was arguing though.

The discussion was whether we had draft capital to make a trade with Melbourne to get Trac.

Whinging about a unfair system in the AFL is another matter.

 

[Cromulant]

That wasn’t what I was arguing though.

The discussion was whether we had draft capital to make a trade with Melbourne to get Trac.

Whinging about a unfair system in the AFL is another matter.

Its the unfair system that makes the point though.

To get him, if he wanted to come, we'd have to give away the future. The Suns didnt have to do that.

 

[1970crow]

Because we dont have the same capital

When was the last time we tapped a best 23 player on the shoulder and said ‘mate, we think you might want to consider your future, it’s not going to be with us’. I know, ‘culture killer’ right, wrong. We never trade out players to upgrade in an area of need. The only players we’ve pushed out was retribution over the camp affair. And they were pretty much done anyway.

 

[Cromulant]

When was the last time we tapped a best 23 player on the shoulder and said ‘mate, we think you might want to consider your future, it’s not going to be with us’. I know, ‘culture killer’ right, wrong. We never trade out players to upgrade in an area of need. The only players we’ve pushed out was retribution over the camp affair. And they were pretty much done anyway.

Id love to see us do it, but even then whos to say thats enough.

The Suns could do it because they play to a different system.

 

[119others]

When was the last time we tapped a best 23 player on the shoulder and said ‘mate, we think you might want to consider your future, it’s not going to be with us’. I know, ‘culture killer’ right, wrong. We never trade out players to upgrade in an area of need. The only players we’ve pushed out was retribution over the camp affair. And they were pretty much done anyway.

thats fair. so what player of value would you have topped on the shoulder from the crows last year and offered up as bait?

 

[119others]

I think the level to which they have been an advantage has been overblown. Brisbane are the only club to have success under the model so far, which has been in place for over a decade

It also ignores that Brisbane don't actually have many Academy players on their list. The Ashcrofts were father-son, which all clubs have access to. The rest of their list was built normally for the most part.

I think the setup partially counters the go-home factor in trades. The Northern states have practically zero go home trades because most players are from Victoria. That is something Victoria benefits from that, say, Gold Coast don't.

i think you are materially understating all of the advantages i outlined from retention (at a decent price) to list planning to acquiring at a massive discount in the first place. some of these previous advantages are now being whittled down at long last (and after the horse has bolted). you really sit here and agree luke hodges son should be allowed to be drafted by the lions as he is part of their academy? cmon, we all know this is a joke just as buddy's kids playing for suns would be down the track. remember there are more qld afl participants than in either sa or wa these days and this trend is only becoming more prevalent as time goes on

last year their were 7 academy players on the list and thats before drafting annable who many thought should have been top 2 last year. includes numerous flag players from last year including their captain harris andrews.

also clearly we all know the lag between drafting elite players and optimal performance. the suns 4 x top 10 players in 2023-2025 have barely even started to impact yet. imagine we had 4 dan curtin types who were only just starting to blossom over coming years - and suns are already a clear top 4 team without these young guns. clear top 2 in flag betting is no surprises. lions and suns followed by guess who...swans

if i was a betting man this whole northern academy advantages and super teams its substantially helped build becomes one of the biggest, or biggest, afl stories this year.

and lions definitely got lucky with the broken fs system also - 100% agreed. but you cant discount the huge leg up they have from academy players and even more so the suns which was the substance of my original post



AI

The Brisbane Lions have a strong pipeline of Northern Academy talent, recently adding midfielder Daniel Annable (2025 draft) and Ty Gallop (2024 draft) to their list. Other recent academy graduates and academy-affiliated players on their list or radar include Sam Marshall, Shadeau Brain, Bruce Reville, and Luke Lloyd.

You realise

 

[1970crow]

Id love to see us do it, but even then whos to say thats enough.

The Suns could do it because they play to a different system.

But we don’t even try to claw back some of the ground. Suns pushed out Luko and got Port’s first rounder. Port pushed out players to trade up to get Rozee. I’m not saying it will move the needle far enough to catch where Suns and Lions currently are. But eventually that’ll be corrected and if we’re still refusing to implement a part of list management that’s used by other clubs, they’ll always have that as an advantage over us.

We could have sold Berry for a pick upgrade or future 3rd. Instead, he’ll get overtaken, finish up in the seconds and delisted.

 

[Cromulant]

But we don’t even try to claw back some of the ground. Suns pushed out Luko and got Port’s first rounder. Port pushed out players to trade up to get Rozee. I’m not saying it will move the needle far enough to catch where Suns and Lions currently are. But eventually that’ll be corrected and if we’re still refusing to implement a part of list management that’s used by other clubs, they’ll always have that as an advantage over us.

We could have sold Berry for a pick upgrade or future 3rd. Instead, he’ll get overtaken, finish up in the seconds and delisted.

Id have been more than happy to push Berry out, and ot course there was a tall ruck we could've let slide too.

Not that he would've landed us much.

 

[pjcrows]

Because we dont have the same capital

But we don't trade out anyone of value either, to build capital.

It's not a level playing field - I'm not disputing this and have posted many times about it - but it's what we need to navigate if we want to strike for a flag.

 

[1970crow]

thats fair. so what player of value would you have topped on the shoulder from the crows last year and offered up as bait?

Unfortunately we wouldn’t have anything that would have gotten us close to Petracca, I agree that we had no hope given what Suns were able to offer up. I’m talking in general, as an overarching club philosophy. Apparently Dogs were only interested in Keane, would have been a risk, but we had Murray and Butts and Woz plus Borlase as depth. And most of our backline are low draft value or delisted players. You don’t need to invest a lot in the KPD area to get a good outcome.

But that still wouldn’t have gotten us near Petracca. Had Grundy been prepared to come here after the Melbourne experiment, we wouldn’t have been interested because we wouldn’t have wanted him and ROB and we wouldn’t tap the latter on the shoulder. And there’s zero doubt that we’d be a better midfield and more powerful side with Grundy instead of ROB.

 

[pjcrows]

Before the trade period Gold Coast had picks 6, 13, 16 and 31

They traded all of those picks, plus a 2026 1st and 2nd, plus Flanders, Ainsworth, Fiorini, Budarick and Rosas for (effectively) Petracca, picks 2, 5, 17, 18 and 28. They also got JUH basically for free

The Academy system probably gave them one extra first round pick of value. But they spent a LOT to get those players. It wasn't just handouts

The thing is the previous handouts they received - eg. Noah Anderson literally for free - help them a lot, but your point stands and I agree with it.

People here would slam you if you suggested we trade, for example, Soligo and Pedlar for capital to get someone like Petracca.

As I posted last year:

Do you guys watch football? Petracca would walk in and be our second or third best player and probably our best pure midfielder.

 

[conVINCEd]

Ollie Henry looks way leaner this year.

He’s very talented but such a sook.

 

[Scorpus]

i think you are materially understating all of the advantages i outlined from retention (at a decent price) to list planning to acquiring at a massive discount in the first place. some of these previous advantages are now being whittled down at long last (and after the horse has bolted). you really sit here and agree luke hodges son should be allowed to be drafted by the lions as he is part of their academy? cmon, we all know this is a joke just as buddy's kids playing for suns would be down the track. remember there are more qld afl participants than in either sa or wa these days and this trend is only becoming more prevalent as time goes on

last year their were 7 academy players on the list and thats before drafting annable who many thought should have been top 2 last year. includes numerous flag players from last year including their captain harris andrews.

also clearly we all know the lag between drafting elite players and optimal performance. the suns 4 x top 10 players in 2023-2025 have barely even started to impact yet. imagine we had 4 dan curtin types who were only just starting to blossom over coming years - and suns are already a clear top 4 team without these young guns. clear top 2 in flag betting is no surprises. lions and suns followed by guess who...swans

if i was a betting man this whole northern academy advantages and super teams its substantially helped build becomes one of the biggest, or biggest, afl stories this year.

and lions definitely got lucky with the broken fs system also - 100% agreed. but you cant discount the huge leg up they have from academy players and even more so the suns which was the substance of my original post



AI

The Brisbane Lions have a strong pipeline of Northern Academy talent, recently adding midfielder Daniel Annable (2025 draft) and Ty Gallop (2024 draft) to their list. Other recent academy graduates and academy-affiliated players on their list or radar include Sam Marshall, Shadeau Brain, Bruce Reville, and Luke Lloyd.

You realise

Those players didn't form the core of their premiership side. And some weren't even highly rated at the draft, like Harris Andrews or Ty Gallop

The rest is guessing. Will Brisbane and Gold Coast be great for years? Maybe. But Brisbane are also a premiership team so they're probably pretty well run. Gold Coast have Damien Hardwick. It's not as simple as get players for free and be great, look at North Melbourne or the endless rebuilds of Carlton

I'm not saying the Academy isn't an advantage, but it's one of many some AFL teams have, and its impact is not as large as you claim.

Brisbane's core side was built normally through trades and the draft. They are an extremely well run and well coached team. That's why they have been successful, not because of handouts. I think some people want Brisbane to be this unattainable side built off unfair gifts because that makes it easier to cope with our lack of success. Unfortunately the reality is there's nothing material Brisbane could have done that we couldn't have done.

I still think the Victorian teams have much larger advantages, including a trade and free agency system strongly in their favour, and the grand final being played in their state every year. I mean we all complain about the Academies but look at the level of sustained success teams like Geelong have been able to achieve without one

 

[Scorpus]

The thing is the previous handouts they received - eg. Noah Anderson literally for free - help them a lot, but your point stands and I agree with it.

People here would slam you if you suggested we trade, for example, Soligo and Pedlar for capital to get someone like Petracca.

As I posted last year:

Which is funny because the AFL giving Gold Coast Noah Anderson had nothing to do with their Academies. It was because they were abysmal on the field for their entire existence to that point.

A big handout, but then I see North Melbourne getting a similar pick for letting Ben McKay leave...

 

[Bovo]

of course we dont give up but when structural advantages exist - like the northern academies now and esp in recent years and previously COLA (which was able to be turned off instantly after multiple flags were won by lions and swans who used it to poach high end talent) - its totally reasonable success starved clubs like us (and power, freo, blues, dons etc etc) start to question inequities when we are clearly on the losing end.

we have built a great squad in recent years both trading and drafting since 2020. that said, our squad is NOT as good as the qld teams and as a consequence i see us getting close but no cigar over coming years. like 2002-2009 with multiple prelims and semis but not quite being good enough. i am optimistic by nature and certainly glass half full but I am just offering my best guess.

if we are sitting here in 2033 after a relatively successful few years of finals most years, 3 or 4 prelims and getting close but no flag we will then likely have to start again. and it will be 40+ years since our flag last century. thats the horror scenario i think is more likely than not. clearly i hope i am totally wrong

We have to be more like Geelong. Success attracts successful players, but maybe we have to take a hit to really get that ball rolling.

 

[ABAB]

We have to be more like Geelong. Success attracts successful players, but maybe we have to take a hit to really get that ball rolling.

So, need to move AFC to Melbourne as well???

 

[Cromulant]

But we don't trade out anyone of value either, to build capital.

It's not a level playing field - I'm not disputing this and have posted many times about it - but it's what we need to navigate if we want to strike for a flag.

I dont disagree with that, and we are absolutely conservative in that space.

But its also a harder decision for us to make than some other clubs given the playing field.

 

[1970crow]

I dont disagree with that, and we are absolutely conservative in that space.

But its also a harder decision for us to make than some other clubs given the playing field.

But we never make that decision, it’s almost like it’s not even an option. Outside of Betts and JJ, we’ve never done it. I don’t think that’s, “a harder decision for us”, I think it’s more that we have a rigid philosophy that it’s something that our club just won’t entertain.

 

[pjcrows]

I dont disagree with that, and we are absolutely conservative in that space.

But its also a harder decision for us to make than some other clubs given the playing field.

Agreed, but I think we need a mindset shift. We need to be making those calls.