Oaks Day

[harry_hawka]

I've often not been too keen on Oaks Day as it's always been on a school day for me. However, this year I'm heading out to Doomben to join in the frivolities of the spring carnival, and hopefully pick a winner or two. I usually only bet in the Melbourne races, but as I'm at the track I'll obviously just play lotto and try and pick a Brisbane winner too.

I'll be putting up my tips fro Melbourne a little later, but was just wanting to get this thread started early so people could put their tips up for tomorrow.

At the moment I'm just on the great mare Spinning Hill to break the (small) drought of hers in the Emirates Classic!

 

[bozza]

Yet to look closely at the form.

Special Harmony is a special in the Oaks so it will be a no-bet race unless backing even money faves is your kind of thing.

At this stage, and as I said I haven't done form/ratings etc, Spinning Hill may be a risk tomorrow

 

[harry_hawka]

Originally posted by bozza

At this stage, and as I said I haven't done form/ratings etc, Spinning Hill may be a risk tomorrow

I think she's a risk in betting too. I don't think I'll have a bet in that race, as short price favourites are not my kind of thing. However, Spinning Hill has been my favourite horse for a long while, so I'm eagerly awaiting that race just for the spectacle. I'll be happy just to watch the Emirates Classic and Oaks tomorrow and look elsewhere to win some dollar.

 

[Woodson]

At the Oaks

I was very impressed with Cape Kennedy in it's last run at Geelong (1700m) just over a week a go and with a late scratching from R8 on Cup Day, get ready to clean up tomorrow when it brains 'em over 1800m.

Look for Artistic Gem who dissappointed at Caulfield a few weeks ago, I'm willing to give it another crack.

I'll be at the track tomorrow btw. (working )

 

[Pigskin]

Chew the fat - Oaks Day

MR2 Everybody I know is tipping Cape Kennedy, why should I be any different ... might be skinny though

MR3 Tag Jeur scratched Cup Day, running here ..... I suspect they scratched because had barrier 18 on Cup Day ... and this is no hard or easier from what I can see ... chance

MR4 Hard race ... Dilly Dally perhaps not as dominant at Flemington but will still be favourite no doubt .... I might back up on Slice of Paradice, Willow Winds trial form is great while I expect the rank outsider Bit of Knowledge to improve ... might be a trifecta race around all of them

MR5 I'll be backing King Robdon, the wide open spaces of Flemington will suit but lets hope they ride him quiet this time and not 4 deep the trip

MR 6 I think Special Harmony is a good thing ... well for a Gr1 good thing .... and like Grandly for a place perhaps

MR 7 Chong Tong might be a price in this ... only if track is firm .... Spinning Hill not quite as zippy as once was it seems, and I can't catch Thorn Park

MR 8 Another super hard race, for the sake of a tip I think I'll be working around Pay Keys who is always underestimated .... he was wide for a long way in the Norman Robinson behind Casual Pass (now doesn't that form stand up !) after stepping up from 1450 to 2000. Ran a good 6th and back to the 1800m here seems ideal.

Hawksbury NR 3 I was set to back Vola on Cup Day at Randwick (until scratched), so although I don't know the form around all opponents in this, presuming weaker

NR 7 Schariar must be hard to beat in this after racing consistently in Sat class last couple of starts .... another hard race but will do me from barrier 3

Nothing of note jumps out at Doomben again, but probly will by tomorrow

I'm sure I will, but if I have a bet at Port Lincoln somebody please thump me

Oink !

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Race 1
would be totally avoiding but i got a tip from someone who is right more often then he is wrong, so i'll be having something small each way on No7 Little Chloe

Race 2
I'd say you'd be looking $3.20 at best on Cape Kennedy, so looking for some value No. 7 Umbula should be fit enough to run a big race after 3 runs in, finished 6 lengths behind Mummify in the S.A Derby 4 starts back, not bad form that will be around $10

Race 3.
Typical Mares race nightmare to do the form on, Gazania going on the $11 in the sun today (even though it means nothing) looks great value, has been racing in better fields than this and ran a top race behind vocabulary 2 starts back, who would be starting odds on in this field. Also having a small bet e/way on NO.13 zakuro in form well weighted and well drawn

Race 4.
Dilly Dally looks the best bet of the day, even better the special harmony in the Oaks. beat pretty much the same field at M.V easilly will be most likely $2.50 at best so be looking to take in a quinella with Bella Corona think the Bigger Flemington track will suit her much better than the Valley.

Race 5.
This has to be THE worst race to be run over the Spring carnival in living memory. Looks a mid week field at best No.5 Leica Waratah looks a good each way bet up in class but really not much to contend with here.

Race 6.

Special Harmony really does look to good get the weight off pretty much all her main rivals here and i cant see her being beaten will be very short though.

Dane Belltar looks the value all lead up runs have been good if she can get an easy time of it out front looks a good bet to be putting in quinellas with Special Harmony.

Race 7.
Wouldn't be at all suprised if Spinning hill wins again but am willing to risk her. Bomber Bill always runs well down the straight and may get out to $8+ and it looks a good each way bet

Race 8.
No. 7 Star of Gretchens last to wins have been very very good bigger track should suit , she looks two be a very good horse very well weightedonly concern is the draw but she gets back so it shouldn't be a major issue.

Race 9.Dead set awful race to finish on, No.2 Artistic Gem got to far out of its grond at Caulfield when on the pace was the place to be had veyr good form up in Brisbane dry track and good record at the trip, well drawn

 

[dodgey]

A few short priced favourites today, but 4 races are currently 5/1 the field so it makes for an interesting day of racing..


Race 1 : As mentioned before by 'I'm cheatingtowin' ...I'm also going to go each way 7 LITTLE CHLOE. First start who was well held in a Bendigo trial 3 weeks ago. a Danehill horse who is sister to Keeper.

Race 2 : CAPE KENNEDY would have had my money on tuesday if it had gotten a start , so I see no reason to jump off now. Currently $2.80, but i think it may be in the Red by race time

Race 3 : TAG JEUR stormed home first up at cheltenham and will be suited by the 1400.

Race 4 : two words.....DILLY DALLY. another short one but a short priced Winner beats a long priced Loser

Race 5 : MEDIA MAGNATE is resuming and goes well fresh. First start for a new stable also. At $11 a good each-way bet

Race 6 : I reckon TIMBOURINA can continue her good form and take out the Oaks. I know it meets Special harmony worse at the weights than Saturday, but Timbourina was full of running at the end, and Special loomed up as though it had the race shot to bits, and just tailed off a little in the last 100, which leads me to think that Timbourina might run the 2500 a shade better.

certainly mortgage the house and Quinella those 2, maybe key Box a Trifecta around them, and put in Dame Belltar, Royal Mask and Generosa to fill the minors

Race 7 : SPINNING HILL. Another one who will come up short, but was originally nominated for the salinger before connections decided that the emirates was THE race for her. has won 11 of 20 over 1200 and been placed another 5 times.

Race 8 : MR. O'HARA drops back to 1800 after chasing home Kempinsky and Elvstroem in the AAMI vase at the Valley 2 weeks ago....and we all know what those 2 did in the derby. If it can get cover from Barrier 13, it will give a good sight

Race 9 : the Get Out Stakes . At 5/1 the field there should be some value for anyone who has some kanga left. KELCHER has won 7 of 13 and bolted in last start at Cheltenham. It's up in the weights a bit, but in an open race, it will go round with my cash on it.


Good luck to all having a Punt

 

[juddy03]

oaks tips

Flemington Races
Rc1: 2 - Resilience: Not a very good race, although are mates with the strapper of Danny O'Brien's horses , and he seems to think this horse can do alrite today..
Rc2: 4 - Cape Kennedy: need i say more?
Rc3: 11 - Seances: Probably a better dead track runner, but there is hope for this good horse..
Rc4: 6 - Beautiful Gem
Rc5: 3 - Not gonna back anything, but for the sake of tipping: Media Magnate
Rc6: 2 - Timbourina: Love the way this horse runs, and like dodgey said, it should run out the 2500 a shade bit better..
Rc7: 7 - Our Egyptian Raine: Great run last start to beat the class horse Spinning Hill.. Should go pretty much the same, from the same barrier.. But it could play against him, if the outside of the track is better..
Rc8: 15 - Taken: Another one of Danny O'Brien's horses.. This one the better one of the day.. Unlucky last start at the Valley, Newitt on board again, a good hope..
Rc9: 10 - The Flag is Flying

Brisbane Races
Rc1: 4 - Huzzah: Family's close mate John Powell on board the Hawkes trained Huzzah.. Looks a good thing, but if too short im not getting on
Rc8: 1 - Ask the Angels: Another Hawkes trained horse, should go well aswell..

Those are my tips for this Oaks day, hope you al go well with the punt!

 

[Deej]

I'm potting Special Harmony, reckon she aint a stayer and will not run the 2500. Basing that on her weakening near the line on saturday, seemed to give ground at the end despite being ridden right out.

I'll take Portland Damasc.

 

[windyhill]

Melb. R.8
1 & 2.
Unload.

 

[NICK THE PIE MAN]

Ok, 4 races down.

Thank God I didn't get on Cape Kennedy in race 2. The only reason I didn't was because it was way too skinny for my liking. What a disappointment he was. Went out too hard and dropped away. By the look of the above posts he would have upset quite a few people on this board! Instead I put some dough down on 'Mythological' for a place and it came through for me.

Liked the look of Seances in race 3 and put $5 on him for the win. Picked up a cool $30. A few nervous moments with the protest but it was all good.

Put an each-way bet down on 'Bella Corona' in race 4. Disappointing race from him. Was a tough race to pick. Even Dilly Dally wasn't too flash. Held on to a place but he had that race with 300 to go and let it slip.

Tip for race 9: 'The Flag is flying.'

 

[Lockyer24]

No bets laid today but Ill go with Dane Beltar, to Timbourina then Special Harmony.

 

[NICK THE PIE MAN]

Just won on 'Special Harmony'.
Didn't get much back (2.00 odds) but better than nothing.
Class horse. Watch out for this gem in next years spring carnival!

Having not a bad day out.

 

[windyhill]

Originally posted by windyhill
Melb. R.8
1 & 2.
Unload.

Thank You Ollie.
Magnificent. $.

 

[jaxx]

How's this for a line-up of short priced losers to have backed today....

Cape Kennedy
Dilly Dally
Timbourina
Thorn Park
Kelcher

I gave back 3/4 of what i made on Tuesday to those horses (and a couple of rougher ones)

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Not a bad day loaded up on the Quinella in the oaks looked a good thing to me only major collect i got all day had a fair crack at Gazania in the 3rd it should have won, but finished clear in front on the day so cant complain.

 

[Pigskin]

well I backed Pay Keys, got the first 4 in the Oaks and had a losing day

not a big loss but a losing day all the same

one more day to go ...... I can't believe I'm about to say this .... but I'm almost tired of the punt this week ........ best bets will land on my lawn at 4am and I have a busy Friday to come digesting it cover to cover

hope others had more luck today than I

Oink !

 

[dodgey]

I couldn't take a trick at Flemington, but I still won for the day.

Thanks mainly to Monte Mist and Fouardee in Syd. and Timesto in Brissy

 

[Dasher39]

I was at the Oaks yesterday as well, and as it was my first time to the races I can say I thoroughly enjoyed it, always helps being LADIES Day as well I come out on top for the day, got on a roll at one stage. Won in 3 consecutive races, always good when I got a tip from a mate. Our Egyptian Raine in Race 7 he told me, and it produced the goods, made me a happy man.

A great day a the races...beer, racing, money and of course THE CHICKS

 

[harry_hawka]

Pigskin, I headed out to Doomben yesterday but only when I got home did I see your offering of a beer. Sorry I missed it, would've been good to meet up and put a face to the name.

Otherwise I had a pretty big day out, got 4 quinella's and a couple of winners in the last 6 races of the day. Didn't win anything until late afternoon, but still came out a good $150 in front (I only wagered about $30 or 40 for the day), so I was happy with the effort.

Pay Keys was my best bet of the day so I loaded up on it, and then went again with Awesome Warrior. Spinning Hill (my favourite horse of the last 3 or 4 years) cost me a bit, I realised there's no place for loyalty when punting. It's pretty safe to say her throne as Australia's best sprinting mare has now gone to a new horse; a very impressive win by Our Egyptian Raine.

I'm looking forward to Stakes day now, some good betting races there, hoping to top off a good run of punting in the past month or so.

 

[Pigskin]

no prob Harry, next time

Oink !

 

[roostersgal4eva]

Originally posted by harry_hawka
Pay Keys was my best bet of the day

how good was Oly's ride in that race (and in the Oaks i might add)

if he's not the best in Oz then im Special Harmony!
how many jockeys in the world stage would be good as him