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Toast On The Couch Premiership Window

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Try to reverse engineer their chart, it kind of looks similar but I think they also scale the points differential between teams. Not sure how to do that in excel.

View attachment 2300136

Edit, Chart based on points not rank.

View attachment 2300174
Should be average points (based on Ess and GC only playing 6 games).

But still clearly skewed by the teams that have had multiple games against Richmond, West Coast, North and Carlton, and those who have played none or only one of those teams.
 

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Hopefully Geelong can keep WCE to 2 points this week so that we have a premiership profile. ;)

The thing about this model (it feels silly to call it that, but anyway) is it's going to favour any teams that make a jump with a soft draw after missing finals the previous year. The combination of a team taking a big step up (actual improvement) with a draw they capitalise on. I think Hawthorn and Bulldogs benefited from that in 2024. Hawthorn's draw in 2025 is only just starting to balance out. GC and Adelaide have cushy runs ahead, albeit probably tougher than what they've faced so far.

Still, the basic finding that a premier is found from that box is a solid one. We will get an outlier eventually though. We've probably had a bunch of grand finalists, but not premiers, that were either just outside the box or at least very close to the periphery.
 
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What metrics for the premiership window do they use when they display it 'On The Couch'?

Is it the top 6 teams in both offence and defence, or do they use actual points for and against?

Edit: just checked, they use the former (top 6).
 
the dogs feature in the premiership quadrant every season. Maybe On the Couch need to reassess their modelling.
 
Modify the algorithm to address 'flat tracking'...
yeah its too simplistic at the moment, especially when they look at it mid season with how the draw is. Need to have a weighting system for where their opposition is on the ladder
 

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yeah its too simplistic at the moment, especially when they look at it mid season with how the draw is. Need to have a weighting system for where their opposition is on the ladder
Prime example - Blues don't miss the window by much, and they've got 4 wins to their name, having already played all of Richmond, North and West Coast!
 
Prime example - Blues don't miss the window by much, and they've got 4 wins to their name, having already played all of Richmond, North and West Coast!
That's because they have been competitive most weeks so the metrics they look at will stack up even though they have only won 4 games. Up until last week our metrics were very good too. You really need to viewing something like this at round 20 You get a much better gauge on who really are the contenders.
 

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Prime example - Blues don't miss the window by much, and they've got 4 wins to their name, having already played all of Richmond, North and West Coast!
In three more weeks they will have played WC & North again. They should be on top of the premiership window without much chance of playing finals.
 

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Toast On The Couch Premiership Window

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