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Toast On The Couch Premiership Window
- Thread starter BigVic
- Start date
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- Nov 12, 2014
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- Hawthorn
FWIW I think the Suns are vulnerable. Lose tomorrow they are out of the top 4 if Adelaide win tonight and thats just the start of it IMO.
A bit early for that call. There's 4 points plus percentage separating 3rd to 8th currently and last year the premiers were 13th at the same time.
- Oct 5, 2023
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I reckon Hawks can do it mate. They're capable.
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I'm just saying, anybody who thinks this season is done at the half way point from 4/5 of the top 5 teams isn't a student of history.
GWS could bob up or the Bulldogs.
I think Freo will make finals but we're in the same boat as Gold Coast / Adelaide and won't have the experience to win it. Hawks have some issues and also lack experienced. Melbourne and Sydney look too far off it and Carlton have more chance of finishing bottom 4 than making the 8.
Where are you getting your history from.
2024 Bris 13th 4-1-6
2023 Coll 1st 11-1
2022 Geel 4th 8-4
2021 Melb 1st 11-1
2019 Rich 7th 7-5
2018 WCE 1st 10-1
2017 Rich 4th 7-4
2016 Bull 4th 9-3
2015 Haw 5th 7-4
2014 Haw 2nd 8-3
2013 Haw 1st 10-1
2012 Syd 4th 8-3
2011 Geel 1st 11-0
2010 Coll 3rd 8-1-3
Only 3 premiers were outside the top after round 12 over the last 14 seasons excluding 2020 for obvious reasons. So that is a 21% chance of winning from outside the top 4 at round 12. And i'm betting it gets worse if I went back another 10 years.
Yes but the comment also wrote off the 4th placed team so therefore it’s 6 out of 14 seasons they would have been wrong. Things are also different since the expansion teams so the data gets harder to use from that point and the pre-finals bye changes it too. That call is wrong 5/8 seasons since the bye was introduced.
Like I said, too early.
You have three of the top favourite's, that doesn’t change so I’m probably a 1 in 4 chance.
Melbourne media have it Pies Hawks Dogs Lions.
They give Crows no chance at all. Zero.
They give Crows no chance at all. Zero.
Link?
Sure.
Here you go.
Vic sides all top 4 . Massive jerk off
Growing fears over premiers after horror fortnight; dream run to set up bolter — Power Rankings
Growing fears over premiers after horror fortnight; dream run to set up bolter — Power Rankings
www.foxsports.com.au
Article from may 20. 3 of the top 4 non vic.Sure.
Here you go.
Vic sides all top 4 . Massive jerk off
Growing fears over premiers after horror fortnight; dream run to set up bolter — Power Rankings
Growing fears over premiers after horror fortnight; dream run to set up bolter — Power Rankings
The Bulldogs for mine really are the wildcard. Almost all of their losses have been 3 goals and less. And the other was 4 the other night.
They are not far off it. They have around 6 weeks to improve their defensive side of things and to improve their forward efficiency. That may happen with Darcy coming in shortly.
I’m not including them just yet but they are the ones who may bob up.
Collingwood for mine are the obvious along with Crows, Brisbane and the Suns. Whether they can come down to Melbourne in September and win the big games will be key (stating the obvious). Hardwick has time to improve on their game plan. And they have the players who are well suited to finals games.
Collingwood in the GF and losing by a point…dream result for mine. I still get as much enjoyment from the Eagles 18 flag as I do from our 3 flags
.
What is it you think I'm missing? It says top 4 the rest making up the numbers. Outside the top 4 as of the end of round 12 is a 21% chance using facts from 15 years. It's actually the same if you make it 25 years.
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It’s says my top 4, Geelong have been cherry picked over Gold Coast. Which most people would have as a much better chance for the flag, GC are going to struggle in finals with no experience.
Therefore it’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 5th at the time of the comment.
If we want an extra algorithm added. I've found over the last decade or two that the best sides after the bye win the flag.
I've had a deeper look and the premier doesn't lose more than 3 matches after the bye, except for 2018. (It probably goes to show that a very unexpected Richmond loss in the prelim took that to happen as they were flying at 1 loss)
The less loses the greater the certainty. Geelong 22 and Richmond 19 at 0 losses increase the correlation. When the premiers have lost 3 games it's often that the fellow top 4 sides have also lost 3 or more for example the last 2 seasons that happened.
An example of poor post bye form is Geelong 2019, finishing on top but losing more than 3 games.
So good form going into finals is a 95% 20 year metric to add in.
It would narrow the 3 or 4 teams in the premiership window down to 2 or 3, keeping the predictor at a high confidence level.
I've had a deeper look and the premier doesn't lose more than 3 matches after the bye, except for 2018. (It probably goes to show that a very unexpected Richmond loss in the prelim took that to happen as they were flying at 1 loss)
The less loses the greater the certainty. Geelong 22 and Richmond 19 at 0 losses increase the correlation. When the premiers have lost 3 games it's often that the fellow top 4 sides have also lost 3 or more for example the last 2 seasons that happened.
An example of poor post bye form is Geelong 2019, finishing on top but losing more than 3 games.
So good form going into finals is a 95% 20 year metric to add in.
It would narrow the 3 or 4 teams in the premiership window down to 2 or 3, keeping the predictor at a high confidence level.
This is a good observation.
Combine it with the week off between last H&A round and start of finals and there could be a case made to suggest winning a flag from outside top4 is now within easier reach
Pies a case of ticking off the wins.
Soon time to cement top 4 and as the weeks progress cementing top 2 then top 1.
I think like August in 2023 they start uping the training loads and hence lose a couple in the process all the while shoring up top spot in which a win on KB will give Pies a nice handy welcome buffer on top spot in which they probably need no and feels like team like lions and cats arent breathing down their necks.
Always good to be on top with buffer healthy percent as well.
All is going well at the Pies.
Nice draw after the bye saints eagles blue next 3 all wins.
Soon time to cement top 4 and as the weeks progress cementing top 2 then top 1.
I think like August in 2023 they start uping the training loads and hence lose a couple in the process all the while shoring up top spot in which a win on KB will give Pies a nice handy welcome buffer on top spot in which they probably need no and feels like team like lions and cats arent breathing down their necks.
Always good to be on top with buffer healthy percent as well.
All is going well at the Pies.
Nice draw after the bye saints eagles blue next 3 all wins.
A wet day at KP brings Geelong into the "premiership window" (based on points per game).
Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane, GC and GWS are the 5 sides conceding less per game.
A wet day at the G tomorrow might see Carlton get back to 6th on that metric though.
Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane, GC and GWS are the 5 sides conceding less per game.
A wet day at the G tomorrow might see Carlton get back to 6th on that metric though.
