Opposition players we should target!

[av76]

I was asking a question more than making a strong statement...and I take your point about getting some real class. But I have checked out some of the stats and the record of players in the top 20 is quite good too. The first draft picks average around 65 games while the average games for picks 5-25 is around 40. My point was 5 picks under 20 might be better for us - if we could get four through trading 1 & 2 - than the two top picks and a pick at 18. In terms of averages we would come out ahead in terms of games played although the quality of those games might be slightly less. My point was simply that we have several spots to fill...not just the two...I suppose given our current position I would prefer 5 very good players than 2 stars (e.g. Goddard and Wells) and a very good player with the remaining two spots spots filled by what is available in the side at the moment (e.g. pick any of our bottom 12 players who are in and out of VFL)...two stars can add a lot but 2 weak links can do more damage...I look at teams like Geelong and Melbourne and think they are so good because they have very few weak links. I agree we should be drafting as much young talent even with our last picks. Anyway, it was just an idea and I'm sure the club will keep the priority pick should our form not improve.

 

[flamethrower]

I reckon a couple of the young Doggies might be worth chasing ie Sam Power and Patrick Bowden... may be a suitable trade for Whitnall.

Can we arrange this trade now?

 

[Bomber1313]

What about Damien Adkins who hasnt been given oppurtunities at the eagles and is a thumping kick

nooooooooooo boo hiss, hes one of my fav players, buch better than chambers. would be a steal, if you get him i wish him luck, just not the blues

 

[Lajon]

I was asking a question more than making a strong statement...and I take your point about getting some real class. But I have checked out some of the stats and the record of players in the top 20 is quite good too. The first draft picks average around 65 games while the average games for picks 5-25 is around 40. My point was 5 picks under 20 might be better for us - if we could get four through trading 1 & 2 - than the two top picks and a pick at 18. In terms of averages we would come out ahead in terms of games played although the quality of those games might be slightly less. My point was simply that we have several spots to fill...not just the two...I suppose given our current position I would prefer 5 very good players than 2 stars (e.g. Goddard and Wells) and a very good player with the remaining two spots spots filled by what is available in the side at the moment (e.g. pick any of our bottom 12 players who are in and out of VFL)...two stars can add a lot but 2 weak links can do more damage...I look at teams like Geelong and Melbourne and think they are so good because they have very few weak links. I agree we should be drafting as much young talent even with our last picks. Anyway, it was just an idea and I'm sure the club will keep the priority pick should our form not improve.

I'm sorry for jumping on you like that for a legitimate opinion. I still utterly disagree and here is why. Let's look at a couple recent drafts as examples:

2001:
1. Hawthorn - Luke Hodge (Geelong U18)
2. St Kilda - Luke Ball (Sandringham U18)
3. West Coast - Chris Judd (Sandringham U18)
4. Fremantle - Graham Polak (East Fremantle)
5. St Kilda - Xavier Clarke (St Marys)
6. West Coast - Ashley Sampi (South Fremantle)
7. Kangaroos - David Hale (Broadbeach)
8. Geelong - James Bartel (Geelong U18)
9. Melbourne - Luke Molan (Geelong U18)
10. Western Bulldogs - Sam Power (Oakleigh U18)
11. Collingwood - Richard Cole (Eastern U18)
12. Adelaide - Brent Reilly (Calder U18)
13. St Kilda - Nick Del Santo (Bendigo U18)
14. Kangaroos - Ashley Watson (Bendigo U18)
15. Port Adelaide - Barry Brooks (Tasmania U18)
16. Hawthorn - Rick Ladson (Bendigo U18)
17. Geelong - James Kelly (Calder U18)
18. Essendon- Shane Harvey (Northern U18)
19. Brisbane - Jason Gram (Gippsland U18)
20. Hawthorn - Daniel Elstone (Bendigo U18)

Now if this draft were replicated for this year and we had, say, picks 1&2 and could get 2 of Hodge/Ball/Judd, do you think it would be worth trading those 2 picks for say, even 6 other picks in the top 20? Of course not. Obviously looking back you will find a few stars drafted in later possies such as Del Santo but on the whole it becomes a lottery as to the class you will bringing to the club. Let's look at some more

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2002:
1. St Kilda - Brendon Goddard (Gippsland Power)
2. Kangaroos - Daniel Wells (Peel Thunder)
3. Brisbane - Jared Brennan (Southern Districts)
4. Western Bulldogs - Timothy Walsh (Northern Knights)
5. Sydney - Jarrad McVeigh (NSW/ACT Rams)
6. Port Adelaide - Steven Salopek (Dandenong Stingrays)
7. Geelong - Andrew Mackie (Glenelg)
8. Hawthorn - Luke Brennan (North Ballarat Rebels)
9. Kangaroos - Hamish McIntosh (Murray Bushrangers)
10. Essendon - Jason Laycock (Tassie Mariners)
11. Essendon - Jason Winderlich (Gippsland Power)
12. Richmond - Jay Sculz (Woodville-West Torrens)
13. Fremantle - Byron Schammer (West Adelaide)
14. Melbourne - Daniel Bell (Glenelg)
15. Melbourne - Nicholas Smith (Norwood)
16. Port Adelaide - Stephen Gilham (Oakleigh Chargers)
17. Western Bulldogs - Cameron Faulkner (Central District)
18. Kangaroos - Kris Shore (Eastern Ranges)
19. Brisbane - Troy Selwood (Bendigo Pioneers)
20. Western Bulldogs - William Minson (Norwood)

Now it's still early, but Blind Freddy can see that after Goddard (who obviosuly hasn't lived up to the hype yet) and Wells, the quality and sureity in the draft goes severely lacking. Let's look at 1 more recent draft.

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2000:
1. St Kilda - Nick Riewoldt (Southport)
2. St Kilda - Justin Koschitzke (Murray Bushrangers)
3. Collingwood - Alan Didak (Port Adelaide Magpies)
4. Carlton - Luke Livingston (Bendigo Pioneers)
5. West Coast - Andrew McDougall (Perth)
6. Kangaroos - Dylan Smith (Sandringham Dragons)
7. Adelaide - Laurence Angwin (Dandenong Stingrays)
8. Kangaroos - Daniel Motlop (Wanderers/North Adelaide)
9. Richmond - Kayne Pettifer (Murray Bushrangers)
10. Western Bulldogs - Jordon McMahon (Glenelg)
11. Carlton - Trent Sporn (North Adelaide)
12. Port Adelaide - Shaun Burgoyne (Port Adelaide Magpies)
13. Brisbane Lions - Ashley McGrath (South Fremantle)
14. Kangaroos - Daniel Harris (Bendigo Pioneers)
15. Carlton - Simon Wiggins (Tassie Mariners)
16. Melbourne - Scott Thompson (Port Adelaide Magpies)
17. Essendon - James Davies (Xavier College)
18. West Coast - Daniel Kerr (East Fremantle)
19. Collingwood - Jason Cloke (Eastern Ranges)
20. Port Adelaide - Kane Cornes (Glenelg)

Here again, you have 2 players who are stars (Kosi maybe not yet but clearly will be if remains injury free) and then the uncertainty after them rises greatly.

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The fact remains, that the first 5 picks in the draft are massively important as you are nearly assured of drafting a career player. After that, who knows what can happen. Under no circumstance should we contemplate trading any draft picks, and as I mentioned before, we must rid our club of the rubbish and try and secure as many picks as we can and try and hit some gems later in the draft.

 

[av76]

I think you are probably right looking at the past players. I suppose I was daydreaming that I would trade a Ball and Hodge for Clarke, Bartel, Del Santo and Kelly given the numerous holes we have to fill...but the chances of picking four great players is probably quite low and you could pick four average players too. This hit home when I saw the 2000 draft you posted..we ended up with 4 top 20 picks...Livingston, Wiggins, Sporn and Angwin (from Adelaide)...although I think Livingston and Sporn still have to prove themselves...it was hardly a raging success either. Angwin was a real talent...too bad we couldn't transplant Whitnall's brain into that body!

 

[cfc05]

av76, might be an alright idea if you got really lucky - but lets have a look at the last time we had three first round picks.

Livingston, Sport and Wiggins - i reckon we go with the two best players on the form of our scouts!!!

 

[Bennycoff]

brogan will be up for grabs if he doesnt play the rest of the matches this season and carlton and hawthorn will be fighting for his services.