Our future has never looked brighter

[Lana]

Geelong is in a unique position to buck the cyclic rise and fall brought about by the AFL’s equalization policy. Due to recent drafting from 2008-2010(with 2009 being the highlight), our list is currently full of many talented 19-21 year olds many of whom are showing their abilities this year. Well’s focus has been on foot skills and versatility and thus by 2014 our team with have a highly adaptable group of young player hitting their prime as many of our current talented A graders hit their twilight.

If the transition is managed correctly our current stars with be incrementally retired in respectful manner. In other words it is apparent that either they have either been surpassed by youth or that their bodies are no longer up to the rigors of AFL footy. This list is an attempted outline but as certain players show seem to be evergreen (Millburn, Scarlett) they may last longer than the prescribed year as form dictates.

Retirements: with the number been there last year
Milburn 2011
Scarlett 2012
Mooney 2011
Ottens 2011
Wojcinski 2011
Ling 2012
Pods 2012
Enright 2013
Chapman 2013
Corey 2013
Hunt 2012
Retirements by year
2011-4
2012-4
2013-3

While people will suggest that a possibility that many players in our 22 in 2014 will not have been drafted yet, due to our current list position most of the youth to come into our 22 are already on our list at the moment. Thus drafting until then should focus on the replacement of the next wave of retirements which will be SJ, Bartel, Kelly, Byrnes, Lonergan, Mackie and Stokes.(listed in order of age, Stokes the youngest will be 29 at the start of the 2014 season the same age that Corey is now)

Bold is 29 or over in 2014
2014 season best 22
FB Guthrie Lonergan Smedts
HB T.Hunt Taylor Mackie
C Kelly Bartel Duncan
HF Varcoe Hawkins Menzel
FF Vardy Brown SJ
F Simpson Selwood Christensen
Int Stokes Byrnes Key defender
Sub Versatile youth

This list has a large amount of players who can move through the middle
Bartel,Selwood,Kelly,Duncan,Christensen,Menzel,SJ,Varcoe,Stokes,Byrnes,Smedts,Guthrie and T.Hunt
Almost all of the above players are at the very least full adept at playing secondary roles in the team.

Contentious player roles
Guthrie: while many have hopes for him to be lings replacement as a tagger, the current trends in AFL reduce the prevalence and effectiveness of a tagging due to the zone and the high number of rotations( even with the sub rule we had 130 rotations this weekend against the Gold Coast). His main trait that stuck out when watching his pre-draft highlights package and his efforts in the Nab cup and round 1-2 was that despite the fact that he got little on the stat sheet, he made his kicks count, often being a long and on the chest of a team mate, and as such he is the perfect Josh Hunt replacement, perfect size to go against smalls, long booming kick for the kick outs but in addition he should be occasionally moved on to the wing to kick it inside 50 (see his set up of Duncan’s goal against Steve Baker round 1)

Mackie: while Mackie often gets attacked on this forum for being soft, lazy, dropping easy marks and poor disposal and decision making His rebound off half back is often understated. He is currently leading us for rebound 50s and is currently equal 13 in the league with 42 for that stat. When he gets either a little space or time he goes for a 20m run and then kicks it 45-55 meters usually hitting the target.

Varcoe: while many bring up a case for Varcoe playing predominately in the midfield, I believe that he often goes missing for long periods of time when played through the middle and thus should mainly be played up in the forward line as a goal scoring defensive forward essentially filling the gap we have had since Max Rooke retired. While he lacks Rooke’s physicality he more than makes up for this with his blistering pace.

Hawkins: So we’re all a little bit disappointed how he turned out, he hasn’t yet turned into the forward monster his build implies he should be. Some people suggest that now he shouldn’t get a game due to Vardy’s performance on the weekend but Hawkins still has a very long future ahead of him at the Cats, people often forget that he is not even 23 years old. He should never have been anything more than an emergency ruck, Vardy’s rise will only help him long term, taking a responsibility from him and allowing him to completely focus on being a goal kicking key position forward.

Byrnes and Stokes: Often these players are in completion with each other for a spot in many cat support’s 22 but as the older brigade of our premiership retire they will find a place in our 22 as versatile experienced senior players. Byrnes and Stokes complement each other very well. Byrnes is more blue collar getting more tackles having more leg speed but he is hampered by a total reliance on his left boot. Stokes is more silk, his disposal in far superior to Byrnes and you can be confident that his set shots will hit the target. Byrnes leg speed makes him right at home on the wing( see 2009 GF against R.Clake) while Stokes can be used at stoppages and as an emergency small defender (Geelong Hawthorn 2011) where he will accumulate disposals.

Overall our immediate and long term future looks bright as we are finally as a club stable both on and off the field that will allow us to excel for the future to come.

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

Good post. A few alterations though that I would make:

1. I reckon Woja will be around for at least one more year, maybe even two. He hasn't lost any pace - as long as his achilles issues are ok then I don't see why he can't play on until at leat 2012.

Enright looks the type to me that couple well play on until he is 34, not unlike Milburn. He is durable and has shown no deterioration at this stage.

2. Don't think that both Stokes and Byrnes will be around in 2014. I read your argument but still think that scenario is unlikely.

3. I think we will look to recruit another big-bodied KPD by then. I can't see that Taylor and Lonergan alone will represent our tall backmen.


The rest looks pretty good. You haven't included Horlin-Smith, Cowan and Schroder in your 2014 team. Whilst the jury is well and truly out on them hopefully they will make it. At the very least they represent more young talent coming through.

 

[Poetic Justice]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I don't believe Pods will be over and done that quickly either.

 

[vinum coupe]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

To be honest our future looked pretty bright at the 24 minute mark of the 1st quarter in the 2007 GF

 

[you pick one]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

To be honest our future looked pretty bright at the 24 minute mark of the 1st quarter in the 2007 GF

I never took the lid off till the 24 minute mark of the last quarter.

 

[catters078]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

Pods will play for at least 2 more seasons after this one. hes only 29

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I agree on the staggered retirements. Definitely will lose Ling Mooney Milburn and Ottens at the end of this year, beyond that is more uncertain. Scarlett seemed to indicate a few weeks ago that he thought this year and one more would see him out (although I'd love to see him play a few more years but if he wants to retire so be it) Wojo maybe depending on form. I think they'll want to keep Pods around as long as they can, until Brown's body is solidly built up and we know whether Hawkins will ever progress or not. There also may be the necessity to use Vardy in the ruck more rather than forward once Ottens retires, if the other ruck options don't come on soon, so it all points to Podsy staying definitely for another year or two, and after that as he's a good team bloke he'll gradually transition back into his old vfl role as the others are ready, and then retire. The hardest thing to predict is whether any senior players (Josh Hunt is an obvious example that comes to mind, and to a lesser extent Wojo) decide to retire as the pressure from the young guns takes away their regular spot, or whether they are happy to duke it out in the 2's and see if they can get back in.

I suspect we will lose a few each year between now and 2014. If I had to predict, and I'm loathed to, you might see Scarlo retire after next year and Wojo Hunt (josh) Smithy and possibly Boris the year after, and maybe even Chappy.

For me the future is very bright as far as runners go. We need a small defender but I think Guthrie will be it and has fantastic kicking which you need at the back with the zone now. For that reason he's likely to play there rather than tagging even though he did a lot of that at u18 level. I reckon if Hogan has a future at the club he might be moulded into a tagger because that's a job he did once last year and did well, and it's probably his best chance of making it. Back to Guthrie, lovely player.

I love our runners, some might question whether Duncan could be a full time mid but Mitch did it well against Carlton, Kelly and Bartel are still young enough that inside mids won't be a major issue for a while and Schroder will be good there in a couple of years as will Cowan once he stacks the kgs on, and of course Bundy has been great.

Up forward Chapman and SJ will obviously be irreplacable but someone like Menz looks very good, and with the marking he offers as well as ground level, I can see someone like Byrnesy, much as he's a great bloke around the club, struggling to get back in because he doesn't offer both of those things. Nothing against Shagga but with the kids that have already come through this year, and the degree to which CS rates Motlop, it's hard to see both Stokes and Byrnes surviving beyond the next year or two, and one will probably go (whether that's to another club or early retirement I don't know) because we have such good depth through that area of the ground and there simply aren't enough spots available.

I'm much more concerned about our talls. Good that Lonergan's come on but he's 27 and probably got only another 3 or 4 years left, and given KPP tend to take that long to come on, we need to recruit another one now. I have very little faith in Gillies based on what I've seen of him live lately, and while I have some faith in Drum's talent I have very little faith in his body and we must get another key defender. If we were to lose Taylor at any point in the next year or two to injury we'd go from top 4 to bottom 8 quite easily.

Rucks is also an issue, Vardy is looking great but we don't want to batter his body with it full time next year when Otto is gone, so we really need West and Daws to step it up. We'll only have those 3 rucks on the list next year so ideally the big bodies of Daws and West can rotate the no 1 spot for most next year supported by Vardy in the fwd/ruck, and hopefully we never see Hawkins ruck ever again.

All in all Wells has done a great list re generation considering the low picks we've had and guys who have left for other clubs, and I am very happy with his last 2 drafts. We just need to jag some good talls in the next 2 drafts and our future will indeed be very bright.

 

[Gladbaqs]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I hope you're right, but Brisbane may have thought the same thing in 2005.

There'll be two distinct declines. There are eleven players older than 29 now: Milburn, Scarlett, Mooney, Ottens, Wojcinski, Ling, Podsaidly, Enright, Chapman, Corey, J Hunt.

They'll all be missed, without exception, but the departures of Scarlett, Ottens, Enright and Chapman will be particularly tough.

Then there's a break in the list. There's more than 15 months age difference between J Hunt and S Johnson. So the pain will cease for a year or two. Then start again: S Johnson, Bartel, Kelly...ouch. I'll stop there.

 

[thejester]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I hope you're right, but Brisbane may have thought the same thing in 2005.

There'll be two distinct declines. There are eleven players older than 29 now: Milburn, Scarlett, Mooney, Ottens, Wojcinski, Ling, Podsaidly, Enright, Chapman, Corey, J Hunt.

They'll all be missed, without exception, but the departures of Scarlett, Ottens, Enright and Chapman will be particularly tough.

Then there's a break in the list. There's more than 15 months age difference between J Hunt and S Johnson. So the pain will cease for a year or two. Then start again: S Johnson, Bartel, Kelly...ouch. I'll stop there.

Agree with that. Don't think we'll plummet down the ladder but it's unrealistic to expect the likes of Guthrie to step in and replace Enright and perform at the same, consistent level for twenty two games.

The slump is going to come, it's just a question of cushioning the fall IMO. The more games we get into what is essentially the 09 draft now the easier the transition is going to be when that class of 99 retires.

 

[LifeSpan-Void]

Yeah our future team looks good on paper, but how will it stack up against future lineups from other clubs? The way the game is evolving, what looks promising for us now could be a millstone around our necks in 2014.

 

[you pick one]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I wouldn't put a line through Otto just yet,not many ruckmen go on after 31, but still enough to think that if the form he is in so far this year continues and the body and motivation hold up he might go on.

He hasn't done that much work over the last 3 or 4 years.

If we could get one more out of him it would be gold for young Vardy.

 

[LifeSpan-Void]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I wouldn't put a line through Otto just yet,not many ruckmen go on after 31, but still enough to think that if the form he is in so far this year continues and the body and motivation hold up he might go on.

He hasn't done that much work over the last 3 or 4 years.

If we could get one more out of him it would be gold for young Vardy.

Ottens has had a multitude of serious injuries over the journey, and it is a credit to Geelong's fitness and medical teams that he's even getting out there - he's got an ongoing knee problem, a fused spine, bung groins and he's not the most aerobic animal to ever hit the track. I love the big guy but let's keep it real.

 

[Turbocat]

The flaw in any of these Nostra-future type posts is we alway under estimate the kids we don't have yet and its almost impossible to anticipate a trades, injuries and failures etc.

If we had done this , as some have said in 2007 , looking at 2011/2012.
Most would have had GA playing out his career at the Cats , Egan at CHB with no Taylor. Probably would have had Djerkurra and Hogan in the side but certain not Pods.

Yes I agree we have the potential to have a side in the top bracket in 2015ish but I suspect from 2015 to 2020 its going to be very tough to win a flag. With GC and GWS having so much talent , everything planned would have to go right and a few lucks dips like Pods would have to come along as well.

 

[max_vinividivici]

Bold is 29 or over in 2014
2014 season best 22
FB Guthrie Lonergan Smedts
HB T.Hunt Taylor Mackie
C Kelly Bartel Duncan
HF Varcoe Hawkins Menzel
FF Vardy Brown SJ
F Simpson Selwood Christensen
Int Stokes Byrnes Key defender
Sub Versatile youth

This list has a large amount of players who can move through the middle
Bartel,Selwood,Kelly,Duncan,Christensen,Menzel,SJ,Varcoe,Stokes,Byrnes,Smedts,Guthrie and T.Hunt
Almost all of the above players are at the very least full adept at playing secondary roles in the team.

I was thinking that Well's/Thompson/Scott and the current football department have developed a similar football philosophy to the Dutch Football Federation's "Total Football" philosophy in which it was implemented by the successful national football team since then and the Ajax football club in the early 1970s and the current Barcelona team.

In "Total Football", a player who moves out of position is replaced by another member of the team, thus retaining the team's intended organisational structure. In this fluid system, no outfield player is fixed in a nominal role; anyone can be successively an attacker, a midfielder and a defender. Total Football's tactical success depends largely on the adaptability of each footballer within the team, in particular the ability to quickly switch positions depending on the on-field situation. The theory requires players to be comfortable in multiple positions; hence, it places high technical and physical demands on them.

As we know, gone are the days for just tap-ruckman. Unfortunately Blake has been a victim of being a one trick pony and now ruckman are required to either play forward/back or even a influential midfielder.
Wells and co. have been able to draft players that fit this "Total Football" mould, and hopefully it continues to be successful.
I would say that most of the players above in this 2014 team would all be able to play either forward/mid/back/ruck, and hopefully this trend will continue to be successful for our club

 

[Cooee Cobber]

I was thinking that Well's/Thompson/Scott and the current football department have developed a similar football philosophy to the Dutch Football Federation's "Total Football" philosophy in which it was implemented by the successful national football team since then and the Ajax football club in the early 1970s and the current Barcelona team.

In "Total Football", a player who moves out of position is replaced by another member of the team, thus retaining the team's intended organisational structure. In this fluid system, no outfield player is fixed in a nominal role; anyone can be successively an attacker, a midfielder and a defender. Total Football's tactical success depends largely on the adaptability of each footballer within the team, in particular the ability to quickly switch positions depending on the on-field situation. The theory requires players to be comfortable in multiple positions; hence, it places high technical and physical demands on them.

As we know, gone are the days for just tap-ruckman. Unfortunately Blake has been a victim of being a one trick pony and now ruckman are required to either play forward/back or even a influential midfielder.
Wells and co. have been able to draft players that fit this "Total Football" mould, and hopefully it continues to be successful.
I would say that most of the players above in this 2014 team would all be able to play either forward/mid/back/ruck, and hopefully this trend will continue to be successful for our club

What a coincidence. I was thinking about total football the other day and if it could be used in aussie rules. If we keep drafting versatile medium-hight players with good agility (like Smedts or Guthrie) I think we could emulate it.

 

[Belisarius]

I'm with you - You picked one - reckon Otto has another season in him.

I also believe his injuries and so much time out of the game probably means his body in someways has less wear and tear. Could do another season and hope he does. Gun player for us and irreplaceable at present.

Mooney gone, Milburn probably gone and Ling maybe gone. Maybe Wojo will be forced out in the need to play kids.

If Ling can play forward maybe he will go again. The other 3 I think will go. Hope Dasher makes 300 games. Deserves it.

So much relies on Brown, Simpson and Vardy. I am sure some of the younger mids and HBF will make it - but we need a ruckman, a CHF and FB in the next 2-3 years to stay at the top.

Perhaps the free agency agreement may make up for losing Ablett to GC. If we could pinch a KP player from another club - it is a lot easier than drafting them and hoping they turn out. We don't do it often but once in a while is ok.

 

[YIIIABLETTT]

Free Agency will comes in and a lot will change between now and then imo.

 

[Baudolino]

I wouldn't go so far as eulogising over the quality of our future team already, but to my mind there are several legitimate reasons to be optimisitic, namely:

1/ Twenty of the players listed in the OP's post are already on Geelong's list, and we've seen eighteen of them in action at senior level already (so to a certain extent they are known quantities, and hence presuming they can acquit themselves to AFL footy is not purely speculative)

2/ A superlative midfield is the nucleus of a superlative team, and fortunately for us the safest bet you could make for 2014 is that our midfield will still be elite. Opposition teams would be envious that a player of James Kelly's class - he'd be the premier mid in numerous sides - will still be behind Selwood and Bartel as our third best mid.

3/ We'll continue to have a surplus of goalkicking small and mid-sized forwards until Chappy retires, at the very least. We're ostensibly spoilt for choice in this department, and I don't see that changing in the next few years at all. Chapman, Johnson, Stokes, Byrnes, Varcoe, Menzel, Duncan, and Motlop are all capable and we have midfielders who can do the job as well. These guy will be crucial in managing the transition between eras - more specifically, helping to negate the drop off in experience and proven goalscoring power once Pods retires, and the transition to a forward line led by Brown, Hawkins,and Vardy.

4/ Flexibility is going to be a legacy of our current side - it really does seem as if Wells has recruited with that in mind, almost out of appreciation for the variety our current set-up gives the coach. From of what I've seen of Guthrie, Christensen, Cowan, Smedts et al, most of the talent coming through is able to play a diverse range of positions, facilitating a side with more adaptability and greater game-day options for Scott or whoever is coaching in 2014.

 

[GFC123]

My thoughts on our current senior players.

Milburn - 2011
Scarlett - 2013
Mooney - 2011
Ottens - 2012
Wojcinski - 2013
Ling - 2012
Pods - 2013
Enright - 2014
Chapman - 2013
Corey - 2012
Hunt - 2012

 

[Gladbaqs]

My thoughts on our current senior players.

Milburn - 2011
Scarlett - 2013
Mooney - 2011
Ottens - 2012
Wojcinski - 2013
Ling - 2012
Pods - 2013
Enright - 2014
Chapman - 2013
Corey - 2012
Hunt - 2012

I think this prediction looks pretty accurate, unlike your mid-game homicidal and suicidal ranting that the cats would lose to the the suns. Have you apologised publicly for that yet?

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I agree whole heartly with this post . After we looked so slow against Pies in PF last year i thought our reign was over for sure Losing Ablett plus Rooke ,i thought we would slip to about 5th or 6th this year . However after watching 1st 9 rounds and bearing in mind that because GWS get all the early picks next year -that puts the handbrake on other existing clubs from improving to a fair extent . Ithink if we jag the premiership this year -then could be even a 4th flag in this group from what ive seen so far this season -ive would have never thought or said that at the end of last year. Wells just keeps getting these blokes with not early picks that turn up trumps .Vardy looks one right out of the box Cowans goal has to get you excited -plus we still have a top 10 pick to use for the Ablett compensation. The trick is to get these blokes who can play with late picks . I watched sTkilda game on saturday they had a 1st year player Sipowitz or something 6 ft 3 moves well , good kick, looked a natural-got him with pick 79 -Wells seems to get these type of blokes -where as other clubs like Richmond keep picking Duds.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Ling and Ottens 2012 is incredibly optimistic and has very little chance of happening.

Anyway, back to the broader point, thejester is absolutely right that there will be a drop off, no doubt, and this year is our last chance to win a flag for a little while. But I think the quality of youth we have seen this year tells us the drop will not be massive, and I can definitely see us staying out of the bottom four, put it that way. I'm very proud that we are the only club to never finish bottom in the draft era, and long may it stay that way. I'm comfortable that we will be able to cushion the fall.

The more concerning thing for me (apart from KPB/Ruck as I mentioned) is that history tends to suggest to win a premiership you need a core (let's say at least 10 players) in their prime age group. (Yes I know Collingwood did it with a much younger average age group, but that tends to be the exception rather than the rule). Our list top and tails, that is lots of older players and lots of younger ones, and very little in the middle range. If you assume players will be at their peak around 26-28 then the only players on our list now who will be that age in 2015 are Selwood, Varcoe, Taylor, Hawkins, West, Drum, Bathie, Hogan, Simpkin, Ben Johnson. Other than the first three (Hawkins is a maybe on present form), very few of the rest are 'bankables' i.e. those we can bank will become very good players. I am very confident about the quality of where the Menzels, Duncans, Poodles, Bundys etc will be in 2015, but I think it's a big load on those 3 or 4 to be the only real experienced players in the group and carry it to a sufficient level for us to win a flag. For that reason I hope once free agency comes in we target 2 or 3 carefully selected players in that age group to bring in.

 

[Lana]

If we use 2007 as an example

Milburn 30
Harley 29
Scarlett Mooney Ottens 27
Corey Chapman Enright Ling Hunt Wojcinski 26
SJ Ablett Bartel Kelly 24
Mackie 23
Selwood 19

The mainstay of our A grade midfield was made up of Ottens Ablett Bartel Corey Ling
this suggests that players enter there prime at around 24 when players enter there twilight is another matter. By 2014 a lot of the youngster playing today will be 22-23 and about to enter there prime while support from players of the calaber of Bartel SJ Kelly who will be the same age as Chapman,Corey and Enright are now and thus can be expected to perform at there very least near there prime as our 29-30 years old are today.

 

[bulletproof]

I have seen no eividence that this is Ottens last year, barring injury he will play on. Mooney and Ling look is a different matter.

 

[RegHickeyStand]

Re: Our future has never look brighter

I hope you're right, but Brisbane may have thought the same thing in 2005...

We are homegrown organically produced. The AFL just pumped Brisbane full. I doubt we will implode like them.

But one word: don't underestimate the talent we are looking at now. Guys like Bartel, Chapman, SJ don't grow on trees. The younger brigade are really going to have to step up to be that good. This is an exceptional side.

Reminds me of the Australian Test team a few years back. Yeah, sure. We'll find another Warne, Hayden....easy...