Opinion Outlook for 2019 - Where will we finish on the ladder?

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CFC18

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#27
There's a big difference between 15th and 18th, so I wouldn't suggest simply 'bottom four' as being acceptable.

If we finish bottom again things have seriously gone wrong, and turmoil will likely come with it. 17th is probably no better but at least we maintain some pride.

A minimum pass mark for me is out of the bottom two but ideally outside of the bottom three. With some competitive games already, and more wins for that to have occured, it will at least give us a fighting chance to sell ourselves to quality players.
 
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#28
I had a crack at the ladder predictor on the AFL website....gave us the win where we are a good chance, and a loss where we're less than 50/50. And the same with other games...selected the team who should start as favorites.

Based on that, it had us finishing 15th.

It also had the Cows finishing 8th...unless they beat the Dogs at Marvel in the last round, where they elevate to 5th, giving them a home final :mad:
 
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Thread starter #29
First team 1-7 to make finals ;)
There's a big difference between 15th and 18th, so I wouldn't suggest simply 'bottom four' as being acceptable.

If we finish bottom again things have seriously gone wrong, and turmoil will likely come with it. 17th is probably no better but at least we maintain some pride.

A minimum pass mark for me is out of the bottom two but ideally outside of the bottom three. With some competitive games already, and more wins for that to have occured, it will at least give us a fighting chance to sell ourselves to quality players.
I agree with your observations.....even with the depleted/young list we have to dish out each remaining round we have to fight very hard right now to give this whole project some grounding.at any cost we have to fight our way to 16 th or at least 17 th spot
 

CFC18

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#30
I had a crack at the ladder predictor on the AFL website....gave us the win where we are a good chance, and a loss where we're less than 50/50. And the same with other games...selected the team who should start as favorites.

Based on that, it had us finishing 15th.

It also had the Cows finishing 8th...unless they beat the Dogs at Marvel in the last round, where they elevate to 5th, giving them a home final :mad:
I gave up on these some time ago when I couldn't do one that didn't have Carlton finishing top 8. Figured it was broken.
 

Timewaster

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#34
I can't see how we're going to catch anyone. Syd will win a few with their experience and all others are too far ahead.

It'd be cruel, because our footy is far from the worst in the comp, but I think the GC and Hawthorn bad luck will cost us.
 

The Blue Baggers

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#36
With a bit of luck and a better coaching we could be 4-4

Some very winnable games still but unfortunately we do not have a winning culture which sees the Blues losing games we could & should win

On Bolton I will quote Dunstall from Saturday “he needs to keep a forward line structure” this was said when we were still in front !!

Unfortunately unless things change , bottom with 2-3 wins !!
 

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Iamcarlton

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#37
Bottom of the ladder unless we can get control of these injuries is almost inevitable .
If Kruezer goes down again it's a certainty .
Almost impossible to get many wins with that age profile running out there most weeks .
 
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Thread starter #38
Bottom of the ladder unless we can get control of these injuries is almost inevitable .
If Kruezer goes down again it's a certainty .
Almost impossible to get many wins with that age profile running out there most weeks .
a lot of people are expecting a bolt up the ladder in 2020......we need to set that up and work very hard now to get those few valuable wins and get us some experience in winning...still hoping for 16 th or 17 th..........hopefully the motivation will be there to work in difficult times
 

Gethelred

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#39
I had a crack at the ladder predictor on the AFL website....gave us the win where we are a good chance, and a loss where we're less than 50/50. And the same with other games...selected the team who should start as favorites.

Based on that, it had us finishing 15th.

It also had the Cows finishing 8th...unless they beat the Dogs at Marvel in the last round, where they elevate to 5th, giving them a home final :mad:
Look on the bright side, that'd net us pick 13.

And we all know what happens when Carlton use pick 13.
 

Iamcarlton

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#43
a lot of people are expecting a bolt up the ladder in 2020......we need to set that up and work very hard now to get those few valuable wins and get us some experience in winning...still hoping for 16 th or 17 th..........hopefully the motivation will be there to work in difficult times
Absolutely its a must we show something in the way of wins for both this year in attempting to attract players and confidence going into next year .
Im hopeful of that happening but not expecting it in fact im expecting the injuries to continue as I see too much pressure being put on young bodies and too much of a load going onto older players .
This is where the age profile of the side comes in .
A good example of overtaxing players although certainly not old is Cripps has played the most amount of midfield minutes I believe in the comp and Williamson who imo looked way off match fit for seniors and now injured .
Im now not expecting much of a rise up the ladder in 20 as we have lost so much continuity match fitness and valuable development time over the past 18 months its ridiculous .
Of course most of the injuries could dry up we get continuity and trouble some sides second half year but given being a young group I wouldn't be expecting them to run the season out hard just yet .
The next 6 weeks imo is where we may see some wins and is crucial if the season isn't going to end up a total disaster in terms of ladder position and wins .
JMO .
 

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#44
I think looking at the teams we play for the rest of the year 6-8 more wins wouldn’t be out of the question if we have a descent run with injury.

We play Saints twice, Bulldogs again, Gold Coast again, Sydney, Bombers, Eagles at MCG, Freo, Brisbane, would be a chance in all of those given gradual improvement between now and end of the year.

Our run up to the bye should give us a good idea at where we are at.
 
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#47
Why I think 7-9 wins for the year is gettable for sure.
That means we will win ~every second of the remaining matches....I don't think we are at that stage....but I believe we will be competitive and in a lot of the games. We will continue to get beaten by experience...can't just switch it on that quickly unfortunately.
 

rp84

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#48
No I don't

If it wasn't for less than 10 minutes of football this year, we would have 3 extra wins and I think we will finish the season better than we started

Young teams almost never play as well in the second half of the season.

I agree that we should have won at least 3 more games this season already. The fact that we choked pretty hard in a couple of them shows me we arent ready to take the next step (which is to run out a 4th qtr and put teams away when we have the chance).

I would bet my house at $1.05 we wont win 9 games for the season.
 

rp84

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#49
That means we will win ~every second of the remaining matches....I don't think we are at that stage....but I believe we will be competitive and in a lot of the games. We will continue to get beaten by experience...can't just switch it on that quickly unfortunately.

Correct. To go from a 12% win percentage to 50 or over is highly unrealistic.

I think we win 3-6 at the absolute max.
 
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