MVP Pendles a Brownlow chance?

[Cory]

Has had a great year infact has never missed a game what do you guys think can Pendles win the first brownlow since Buckley?

 

[Tippy78]

I think he can be the first pies player to win since Buckley, but I don't think it'll be this year.

Judd has had a better year than last year and unless the umps watched last years Carlton vs Pies match to see the errors of their ways, then he will win again.

 

[Drizt]

Of course he is a chance.

 

[mattys123]

I'm just waiting for the round 3 votes, despite Collingwood winning by 28 points, Swan having 34 possessions, Shaw having 27, and Blair kicking 5 goals,
Andy D will read out the votes;

"One Vote, H.Shaw"
"Two Votes, D.Swan"
"Three Votes, C.Judd"

Then we can all go to bed.

(By the way, Judd had 24 possessions at an efficiency rate of 67% and no goals).

 

[Axl the great]

Massive show IMO, Will poll in most games we played just a matter of 1 2 or 3.

I did a lot of study on the brownlow for this year, hours infact, (Thats what happens when you have six weeks off work with a dislocated shoulder, bored shitless hahaha)

Anyway I actually had Pendles winning, proven vote getter and easily his best year.

My top 6 were.

1) Scott Pendlebury 30 votes 7*3 votes 3*2 votes 3*1 vote

2) Cris Judd 28 votes 6*3 votes 3*2 votes 4*1 vote

3) Dean Cox 27 votes 6*3 votes 3*2 votes 3*1 vote

4) Marc Murphy 22 votes 4*3 votes 2*2 votes 6*1 vote. Tied with Adam Goodes.

4) Adam Goodes 22 votes 5*3 votes 2*2 votes 3*1 vote.

5) Garry Ablett 20 votes 3*3 votes 3*2 votes 5*1

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

He'll come second at best. Will have Dane, Daisy and LEon taking votes off him.

Judd will once again, have no votes taken off him. Not even from Murphy. The umps want Judd winning the brownlow. As much as the umps will also want Murphy winning, they realise giving Murphy votes, takes votes off Judd.

I'd say the real surprise could be Murphy not getting Top 5 in the votes thanks the the umps love for Judd.

Pendles should get a semi-close second at best.

 

[Wooljay]

You could certainly put your house on him being Top 3 at $2.10, and be safe knowing you could go out the next day and get two houses

 

[Garibaldi]

Should win but probably wont. Has been a consistant play maker all year. Only player who could get away with the stupid corn row haircut on skill alone. I also think Davis should poll well.

 

[esc0bar]

Pendles has the highest DT and SC points out of any player in the comp. If we rated him on that he is a sure thing

 

[rose jam]

Interesting listening to it today on the ABC radio that Judd has polled in only 8 games according to them and Murphy 10, and only 3 games together. I think Murphy might out vote him. Swan polled in 11 I think, including the first 4 as 3 voters.
I hope Pendles gets around the 20 votes, comes about 3rd or 4th. I don't want the brownlow as a distraction this week. Pendles is very routined, I want him to own Geelong. Brownlow winners rarely do well in the GF.

 

[rose jam]

I'm just waiting for the round 3 votes, despite Collingwood winning by 28 points, Swan having 34 possessions, Shaw having 27, and Blair kicking 5 goals,
Andy D will read out the votes;

"One Vote, H.Shaw"
"Two Votes, D.Swan"
"Three Votes, C.Judd"

Then we can all go to bed.

(By the way, Judd had 24 possessions at an efficiency rate of 67% and no goals).

If Judd gets votes in that game I'm going to rape Andy D's. exhaust pipe. The return match against Carlton Judd shovelled handball turnovers all match but you watch him get the 3 votes in that game.

 

[Raymond Rougeau]

Considering how screwed the voting is I'm holding out for swan tommorow night as the make up for last year...

 

[larrikan]

it's very close....I have Pendles winning but Swan could too, especially with the umpires noticing him more after last year. BUT I have 5 players between 22 to 27 votes so it could be a tie and umpires will decide this like they did with Judds 5 BOGs in a row last year.

On Judd...media and emotional hype...Judd in his great games this year has exceeded last years form. However, IT IS IN LESS GAMES maybe 5 (BOGs) so you can only get 3 votes not matter how great you are in any game. He will not get 10 3 vote games like last year. How consistently he polls and whether there is a Brownlow hangover will be important.

So with Boyd and Goodes flip a coin between the five.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Macca_]

This is the bad thing about having Pendles and Swan in the same team. They always seem to be pinching votes from each other

 

[Lockyer24]

Swan 27 votes
Pendles 22 votes

But Judd will get 45 votes if last year is to go by

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

Not to intrude in your thread
But I think Swan is a huge chance and is severely underated
Hes had an amazing second half of the year as well as playing good footy for the first half until about three weeks until Queens Birthday clash
and I also think he stands out more than Pendles

 

[Swooop]

Pendles is a chance, i think the umpires like him.

I'll be extremely interested to see how Judd polls. He's had a better year this year than last year, and I think deserves to win this year, whereas last year he didn't.

The love for Judd peaked earlier this year, and IMO, the Judd sycophancy was discussed at AFL level, as it had became ridiculous and embarrassing.

The umpires have clearly changed their umpiring of Judd. It changed from treating him as being above the rules to recently being overly harsh on him.

Plus i think the umpires were humiliated by last year's voting, made themselves look like a bunch of fawning schoolgirls, so they may have guarded against being Judd centric this year, perhaps to the point of being too much the other way.

So, more a human behaviour interest story to me.

Goodes would be also be a very deserving winner, and Sam Mitchell will poll well, although can't win after the bump.

 

[PieBeast]

I agree with Swooop, Judd definitely deserves to win it this year. In fact I'll go as far as saying it will be a bigger injustice if he doesn't than last year's debacle.
Thomas, Swan, Davis and even Cloke will hurt Pendlebury's chances.

PS. have a substantial Judd/Pies double going but will be more than happy to only get the second leg and miss out on the collect.

 

[jonbe54]

Pendles is a chance, i think the umpires like him.

I'll be extremely interested to see how Judd polls. He's had a better year this year than last year, and I think deserves to win this year, whereas last year he didn't.

The love for Judd peaked earlier this year, and IMO, the Judd sycophancy was discussed at AFL level, as it had became ridiculous and embarrassing.

The umpires have clearly changed their umpiring of Judd. It changed from treating him as being above the rules to recently being overly harsh on him.

Plus i think the umpires were humiliated by last year's voting, made themselves look like a bunch of fawning schoolgirls, so they may have guarded against being Judd centric this year, perhaps to the point of being too much the other way.

So, more a human behaviour interest story to me.

Goodes would be also be a very deserving winner, and Sam Mitchell will poll well, although can't win after the bump.

I agree with most of that swoop excepting for Judd having a better year than last year. His disposal efficiency is steadily - if slowly trending inexorably downwards and is certainly nothing to write home about.

Its all very well getting 30 possies but if 10 or 12 of them are regularly misdirected then how effective are those 30 possies really?

And as for his kick penetration and goal kicking - the less said the better I think. Sure his body is battered from years of carrying the Blues but that shouldn't come into calculations. His disposal efficiency is not Brownlow worthy in my opinion.

 

[Swooop]

I agree with most of that swoop excepting for Judd having a better year than last year. His disposal efficiency is steadily - if slowly trending inexorably downwards and is certainly nothing to write home about.

Its all very well getting 30 possies but if 10 or 12 of them are regularly misdirected then how effective are those 30 possies really?

And as for his kick penetration and goal kicking - the less said the better I think. Sure his body is battered from years of carrying the Blues but that shouldn't come into calculations. His disposal efficiency is not Brownlow worthy in my opinion.

Yeah that may well be right jonbe

I would say a lot of his disposals are of balls he won when he had no right to, and hence they were under immense pressure.
But also, other times he isn't under as much pressure and turns it over, far more than other elite players eg Ablett, Mitchell, Pendles.

Judd seems to win games for his team more than any other player IMO.

Dal Santo may be a smokey as well.

And if good players in bad teams do well, surely Ablett is a big chance.

 

[Frankie23]

I think Swan has just as good a chance as Pendlebury, if not better.

Fact is bar the odd game where Leon, Thomas and Trav have really stood out, Pendles and Swan have been out two best players. Furthermore Judd has one M.Murphy to deal with this year, he will poll very well and could sneak a few BOG's off Judd.

For the record I have Swan on 25 and Pendles on 24 (however I have a feeling I have underestimated his output). Have them behind Judd and equal with Boyd/Goodes. However I've got a feeling I've undersold Pendlebury, especially round 15 against Hawthorn (missed the match, didn't give Pendles votes but apparently he killed it).

With a bit of luck, we could have a new Collingwood Brownlow medalist, hopefully a tie between the two of them haha!

 

[larrikan]

From a Brownlow point of view Pendles has matched Judd all year...Judd had a very quiet mid season and end of the year. The smokey is the way Swanny finished the year. Judd will have to be in front with four rounds to go because he will not poll in the last four rounds. I am not anti Judd either.. I will win a packet on the Franklin/Judd/Pies bet that I took two months ago. Don't worry I took Pendles into the Pies and Swan too. There are too many variables this year...Does Mitchell get votes after the report? Is there a Judd backlash after last year? Does Murphy poll well for the first time? Does Swan receive the 3 votes instead of say 2 this year? Do Boyd and Goodes get enough votes when their sides lose? It's wide open this year thats for sure.

 

[jonbe54]

Yeah that may well be right jonbe

I would say a lot of his disposals are of balls he won when he had no right to, and hence they were under immense pressure.
But also, other times he isn't under as much pressure and turns it over, far more than other elite players eg Ablett, Mitchell, Pendles.

Judd seems to win games for his team more than any other player IMO.

Dal Santo may be a smokey as well.

And if good players in bad teams do well, surely Ablett is a big chance.

Don't mistake me Swoop I'm in awe of the guy's ball winning ability however I'm NOT a fan of his disposal.

You're totally correct about top players in poor clubs polling well too - Bob Skilton (3 times winner for South Melbourne) Hayden Bunton (3 times for Fitzroy) and Ian Stewart (2 for StKilda and 1 for Richmond) bear this out.

 

[PieBeast]

From a Brownlow point of view Pendles has matched Judd all year...Judd had a very quiet mid season and end of the year. The smokey is the way Swanny finished the year. Judd will have to be in front with four rounds to go because he will not poll in the last four rounds. I am not anti Judd either.. I will win a packet on the Franklin/Judd/Pies bet that I took two months ago. Don't worry I took Pendles into the Pies and Swan too. There are too many variables this year...Does Mitchell get votes after the report? Is there a Judd backlash after last year? Does Murphy poll well for the first time? Does Swan receive the 3 votes instead of say 2 this year? Do Boyd and Goodes get enough votes when their sides lose? It's wide open this year thats for sure.

Not true, he is a lock for 3 in rd 21 against Freo.



PS. Anyone who says Judd didn't have a substantially better year than 2010 should try opening other eye.

 

[Pera]

Mark this post, Swan is a major chance come tomorrow night. Have put my money where my mouth is and have 100 on him for a top 3 place.

People are forgetting the hot form he had earlier this season and the form he finished with will have him poll well. Somewhere in the mid 20's.