Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[FB19]

Just brainstorming here, but if WA wanted to go the local kids, I wonder whether GC would be willing to split their first, in order to have the necessary picks to match any bids for their 3 highly ranked academy kids.

Something like:

Hawthorn give 3, F1, 32, 51
Hawthorn get Reid

WCE give 1, 19, 35
WCE get 3 (Curtin), 6 (Edwards), 32, F1
NB. Also leaves them with 1 second rounder, 2 third rounders this year

GC give 6
GC get 19, 35, 51, 54
NB. these picks, added to 25, 30, 44, 56, ensure they can match bids on Walter (4-10), Rogers (10-18) and Read (20-40)

Gold Coast would need something else to seal the deal, but it would be a great look for GC to back in their academy development program.

Nice brainstorm I would hope we do that in a heartbeat for Reid. Pick 19 a bit strategic that might need more thinking.

 

[citizen-erased]

Last thing GWS want is a guy who has basically said he wants to go back to Victoria.

Has he? Havent really monitored b/c we're no chance.
If so, even with WCE's track record, i reckon they split it for a haul.

E.g pick 2 from north/hawks + f1 with eagles 2nd going back

 

[Sphynx]

Is Reid that good? They hype up the number 1 pick every year.

I personally think Watson is going to be the first player remembered from this draft in 10-15 years.

I think he's a generational small mid/forward that will get to the Boomer/Milne level.

Both of whom would have been even better than they were had they started in this era.

Watson will be one of the most damaging players in the league in 4-5 years and a step up on even the likes of Cameron, Pickett, Rankine. He has everything - electric speed, beyond elite agility, he's ultra tough, loves the defensive side, great overhead for his size, high footy IQ and knows how to exploit opponents and kick large bags.

He may be close to the best small forward to ever come through the Victorian u/18 system and we had Sheezel last year break a lot of advanced data metrics in the comp for a forward/mid since they have retrospectively tabled them.

 

[hawkinoz]

Just brainstorming here, but if WA wanted to go the local kids, I wonder whether GC would be willing to split their first, in order to have the necessary picks to match any bids for their 3 highly ranked academy kids.

Something like:

Hawthorn give 3, F1, 32, 51
Hawthorn get Reid

WCE give 1, 19, 35
WCE get 3 (Curtin), 6 (Edwards), 32, F1
NB. Also leaves them with 1 second rounder, 2 third rounders this year

GC give 6
GC get 19, 35, 51, 54
NB. these picks, added to 25, 30, 44, 56, ensure they can match bids on Walter (4-10), Rogers (10-18) and Read (20-40)

Gold Coast would need something else to seal the deal, but it would be a great look for GC to back in their academy development program.

Seems ok but I think we are paying bit extra, given we are not that desperate for Reid. This is more of WCE trying to maximise their hand.

I am perfectly happy to take Curtain or Watson with Pick 3 and call it a day. So if we are adding our F1 to the mix, I will want another pick that I can use before McCabe bid comes in. If gets rated lower, i would be happy with pick 19 but can't say now.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Just brainstorming here, but if WA wanted to go the local kids, I wonder whether GC would be willing to split their first, in order to have the necessary picks to match any bids for their 3 highly ranked academy kids.

Something like:

Hawthorn give 3, F1, 32, 51
Hawthorn get Reid

WCE give 1, 19, 35
WCE get 3 (Curtin), 6 (Edwards), 32, F1
NB. Also leaves them with 1 second rounder, 2 third rounders this year

GC give 6
GC get 19, 35, 51, 54
NB. these picks, added to 25, 30, 44, 56, ensure they can match bids on Walter (4-10), Rogers (10-18) and Read (20-40)

Gold Coast would need something else to seal the deal, but it would be a great look for GC to back in their academy development program.

Would think it's very likely GC try to sell their 1st. A bid for Walters is probably coming before it anyway. Given Walters, Rogers, and Read are all projected to go high a 4th player might not be wanted/needed. GC have more promising academy players next year to consider too.

Regarding something extra, Sharp will go to either WC/Freo and Flanders might interest Hawthorn or North?

North should be getting involved here though surely? You have a lot of good young players, and Reid would fit in nicely

 

[Makeshift Park]

Would think it's very likely GC try to sell their 1st. A bid for Walters is probably coming before it anyway. Given Walters, Rogers, and Read are all projected to go high a 4th player might not be wanted/needed. GC have more promising academy players next year to consider too.

Yeah it was just a thought I had after reading this:

Why Suns’ top pick could be on trade table, 205cm star surges and latest mid-season whispers: Draft Watch

Trio could spark top pick trade call as 205cm freak stars; latest mid-year whispers: Draft Watch

www.foxsports.com.au

Guess its all a bit academic until we have a better sense of where the teams end up and how the kids are ranked, but I was working on the theory you guys could struggle to get all three with your current draft hand?

Regarding something extra, Sharp will go to either WC/Freo and Flanders might interest Hawthorn or North?

North should be getting involved here though surely? You have a lot of good young players, and Reid would fit in nicely

A lot will depend on what, if any, draft assistance we get, as well as any compo if McKay leaves.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Yeah it was just a thought I had after reading this:

Why Suns’ top pick could be on trade table, 205cm star surges and latest mid-season whispers: Draft Watch

Trio could spark top pick trade call as 205cm freak stars; latest mid-year whispers: Draft Watch

www.foxsports.com.au

Guess its all a bit academic until we have a better sense of where the teams end up and how the kids are ranked, but I was working on the theory you guys could struggle to get all three with your current draft hand?


A lot will depend on what, if any, draft assistance we get, as well as any compo if McKay leaves.

The Suns will have the points to get all three, they have a lot of picks this year. I doubt they will have a problem splitting their first either.

 

[croweater 41]

Just brainstorming here, but if WA wanted to go the local kids, I wonder whether GC would be willing to split their first, in order to have the necessary picks to match any bids for their 3 highly ranked academy kids.

Something like:

Hawthorn give 3, F1, 32, 51
Hawthorn get Reid

WCE give 1, 19, 35
WCE get 3 (Curtin), 6 (Edwards), 32, F1
NB. Also leaves them with 1 second rounder, 2 third rounders this year

GC give 6
GC get 19, 35, 51, 54
NB. these picks, added to 25, 30, 44, 56, ensure they can match bids on Walter (4-10), Rogers (10-18) and Read (20-40)

Gold Coast would need something else to seal the deal, but it would be a great look for GC to back in their academy development program.

Is there still the rule of not taking more picks to the draft than you have list spots available?

That would be the only issue that will be facing GCS. I have no idea what their contracts look like coming out at the end of the year or who may be in the delist pile for them but if the above rule (it was at some point I believe) applies then they will need to do some fancy accounting somewhere.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Is there still the rule of not taking more picks to the draft than you have list spots available?

That would be the only issue that will be facing GCS. I have no idea what their contracts look like coming out at the end of the year or who may be in the delist pile for them but if the above rule (it was at some point I believe) applies then they will need to do some fancy accounting somewhere.

Sounds like the work around here is to wait until draft night before splitting your picks.

You only have to have the same number of open list spots and picks until the draft starts, then you do the deals and split them up.

 

[croweater 41]

Sounds like the work around here is to wait until draft night before splitting your picks.

You only have to have the same number of open list spots and picks until the draft starts, then you do the deals and split them up.

There's always a loophole.

 

[HeHateMe]

I highly doubt we make a serious play for Reid and pick 1. Might make a token offer but others should be able to make a better go of it.

Melbourne would be seriously keen wouldn't they, how could they get it done?

 

[Wild Bill]

Certain that WC now have pick 1. Two questions

Facing a long rebuild and likely few win seasons, are WC confident Reid would stay the course? If they are, just pick him.

If not confident, which other team will have the picks to satisfy WC? Only GWS at this stage but they will face the same go home dilemma.

North are a rough chance but it would have to include F1 you would think.

Any other likely suitors are pissing into the wind IMO

I don't think its a certainty. We play the Eagles in round 20 in WA. If they get players back they are a massive chance to beat us - we only beat them by a goal at home in round 1.

If we gave them pick 2 and Ports 1st rounder we would be crazy to give a futures 1st - which will most likely be a top 3 pick. F2 maybe but not F1.

 

[FB19]

There's always a loophole.

Yes the issue is they have 9 picks with points value now so if they only have 6 open list spots at the start of the draft the 3 fourth round picks get cancelled out and they can’t use them. As a hawks supporter we should help them by swapping our first for theirs and giving them our second for some late picks like 49 and 62 with the balancer being their f1. They get a pick before Walter and convert 2 late picks into a decent second. we keep a top 10 pick and 2 picks that with 51 should be enough for Will McCabe and a future first.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Reid could also be the next Boyd, Scully, Jack Watts, Rayner, Ugle-Hagan, Rowell, Andrew Mcgrath, paddy McCartin, Patton. There's 9 number 1 draft picks that were either spuds, average players or good players but none of them were stars or remotely close to AA calibre. And many of these guys were just as hyped up as Reid.

I think the best three predraft prospects of that time frame were Petracca, Oliver and JHF. Saints stuffed up the obvious Petracca pick. Reid is in this class. Has the hype but also the attributes to be the best in the comp where as the others dont, either from being too small or too much development required.

 

[Bipolar Bear]

Tank for Wemby Reid

 

[Sphynx]

I think the best three predraft prospects of that time frame were Petracca, Oliver and JHF. Saints stuffed up the obvious Petracca pick. Reid is in this class. Has the hype but also the attributes to be the best in the comp where as the others dont, either from being too small or too much development required.

Rowell and Walsh had as much pre-draft buzz as JHF. I think Ashcroft probably would have if he wasn't aligned to a club, but as you can see already, he has a fair bit of competition to be the best player long term from 2022.

Oliver doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation, he was a late bolter in some respects. Wasn't even picked for Vic Country in the Champs.

No way was he considered one of the best predraft prospects of the last decade.

I don't think Petracca belongs in it either, he wasn't the clear #1, that's 20/20 vision playing it's part. I'd put Petracca on a similar level to Rayner.

The only other one belonging in this conversation is O'Meara, who had as much underage buzz as anyone, even as a 17 year old.

His 17 year old hype and value in the preselection Mini draft was very comparable to Reids and would have been similar if Reid was attainable last year by a similar mechanism.

17 year old O'Meara is the most comparable to Reid imo.

Edit: The other is David Swallow, who absolutely murdered the VFL as a 17 year old and finished 4th in the JJ Liston in the Suns AFL prep year in the VFL, he was being hailed as the next big thing....

In terms of pre-AFL reputations I'd rank them in the following tiers. Scully and Watts could probably be higher tbh. Scully had a huge rep in his draft year. JHF is probably almost between 2 and 3.

1. O'Meara/Reid
2. Jack Martin/David Swallow
3. Boyd/Hogan/JHF/Rowell/Walsh/Kreuzer
4. Ashcroft/Patton/Ugle Hagen/Scully/Watts
5. McGrath/Rayner/Petracca/Cadman

 

[Wild Bill]

Rowell and Walsh had as much pre-draft buzz as JHF. I think Ashcroft probably would have if he wasn't aligned to a club.

Oliver doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation, he was a late bolter in some respects. Wasn't even picked for Vic Country in the Champs.

No way was he considered one of the best predraft prospects of the last decade.

The only other one belonging in this conversation is O'Meara, who had as much underage buzz as anyone, even as a 17 year old.

His 17 year old hype was very comparable to Reids.

Hogan is had a fair bit of hype as well.

What is crucial is the teams now at the bottom have to get their drafting spot on before Tassie get their concessions.

 

[Sphynx]

Hogan is had a fair bit of hype as well.

What is crucial is the teams now at the bottom have to get their drafting spot on before Tassie get their concessions.

Yes definitely, I left him out.

Hogan would slot into the Boyd tier, ill edit it.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Rowell and Walsh had as much pre-draft buzz as JHF. I think Ashcroft probably would have if he wasn't aligned to a club, but as you can see already, he has a fair bit of competition to be the best player long term from 2022.

Oliver doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation, he was a late bolter in some respects. Wasn't even picked for Vic Country in the Champs.

No way was he considered one of the best predraft prospects of the last decade.

I don't think Petracca belongs in it either, he wasn't the clear #1, that's 20/20 vision playing it's part. I'd put Petracca on a similar level to Rayner.

The only other one belonging in this conversation is O'Meara, who had as much underage buzz as anyone, even as a 17 year old.

His 17 year old hype and value in the preselection Mini draft was very comparable to Reids and would have been similar if Reid was attainable last year by a similar mechanism.

17 year old O'Meara is the most comparable to Reid imo.

Edit: The other is David Swallow, who absolutely murdered the VFL as a 17 year old and finished 4th in the JJ Liston in the Suns AFL prep year in the VFL, he was being hailed as the next big thing....

In terms of pre-AFL reputations I'd rank them in the following tiers. Scully and Watts could probably be higher tbh. Scully had a huge rep in his draft year. JHF is probably almost between 2 and 3.

1. O'Meara/Reid
2. Jack Martin/David Swallow
3. Boyd/Hogan/JHF/Rowell/Walsh/Kreuzer
4. Ashcroft/Patton/Ugle Hagen/Scully/Watts
5. McGrath/Rayner/Petracca/Cadman

I agree with your assessment of how those players were viewed in their respective draft years. But I don't think of the best prospects as simply as who performed best as juniors. A lot of these guys are taken at pick 1 because of the probability of getting a high calibre player, but not what I think recruiters should do which is view the best prospect as the one with the balance of their junior performance combined with their upside at AFL level.

I think if you rank all the players from the last 20 years, you are probably getting 5 in the top 50 under six foot. Probably 1 under 180 in Akermanis. 80% of them are 184cm+ hard bodies that can kick goals or play in multiple positions. So even if Rowell/McGrath/Scully/Martin end up meeting their potential, it's unlikely to considerably move the dial on your premiership chances. Which I think should be the goal of pick 1 and what constitutes the best prospects, a player to build a team around. Which I think O'meara and Swallow would have been close to had they avoided injuries, just a little less explosive and dynamic as the others.

Just on Petracca:
Rendell, who was working at Collingwood in 2014, said internally McCartin was rated around pick eight, insisting that everyone else he spoke to at club-land had Petracca as the best player in the draft.

“My information is the coach of St Kilda (at the time in Alan Richardson) might have strongly influenced the recruitment manager Tony Elshaug to take Paddy McCartin at pick one,” he said on AFL Trade Radio’s The Late Trade.

“17 other clubs in the competition had (Christian) Petracca as a clear number one in that draft, so he accidently fell to Melbourne.

 

[LordLucifer]

Straight trade for Cripps, Fisher, Carroll & M. McGovern.

 

[Off Tap]

I agree with your assessment of how those players were viewed in their respective draft years. But I don't think of the best prospects as simply as who performed best as juniors. A lot of these guys are taken at pick 1 because of the probability of getting a high calibre player, but not what I think recruiters should do which is view the best prospect as the one with the balance of their junior performance combined with their upside at AFL level.

I think if you rank all the players from the last 20 years, you are probably getting 5 in the top 50 under six foot. Probably 1 under 180 in Akermanis. 80% of them are 184cm+ hard bodies that can kick goals or play in multiple positions. So even if Rowell/McGrath/Scully/Martin end up meeting their potential, it's unlikely to considerably move the dial on your premiership chances. Which I think should be the goal of pick 1 and what constitutes the best prospects, a player to build a team around. Which I think O'meara and Swallow would have been close to had they avoided injuries, just a little less explosive and dynamic as the others.

Just on Petracca:
Rendell, who was working at Collingwood in 2014, said internally McCartin was rated around pick eight, insisting that everyone else he spoke to at club-land had Petracca as the best player in the draft.

“My information is the coach of St Kilda (at the time in Alan Richardson) might have strongly influenced the recruitment manager Tony Elshaug to take Paddy McCartin at pick one,” he said on AFL Trade Radio’s The Late Trade.

“17 other clubs in the competition had (Christian) Petracca as a clear number one in that draft, so he accidently fell to Melbourne.

My recollection of the drafts on BF was that McCartin was the fave to be at #1. There weren't too many that didn't have him out on top. Heeney was rated by many here as top 3.

 

[sydney_gws]

Just brainstorming here, but if WA wanted to go the local kids, I wonder whether GC would be willing to split their first, in order to have the necessary picks to match any bids for their 3 highly ranked academy kids.

Something like:

Hawthorn give 3, F1, 32, 51
Hawthorn get Reid

WCE give 1, 19, 35
WCE get 3 (Curtin), 6 (Edwards), 32, F1
NB. Also leaves them with 1 second rounder, 2 third rounders this year

GC give 6
GC get 19, 35, 51, 54
NB. these picks, added to 25, 30, 44, 56, ensure they can match bids on Walter (4-10), Rogers (10-18) and Read (20-40)

Gold Coast would need something else to seal the deal, but it would be a great look for GC to back in their academy development program.

Gold Coast will get a better deal than that. They could get say 14 , 2024r1. They then can trade 14 again for more points, say for 22,23.

 

[Keystone agony]

Think offers will be

GWS: 1st, 1st (Tied Tigers), F1

GC: 1st, F1 and J.Sharp (Only if Reid is ok going there/which i doubt)

Melb: 1st, 1st(Tied Freo) and F1

 

[Red Black and Blue]

My recollection of the drafts on BF was that McCartin was the fave to be at #1. There weren't too many that didn't have him out on top. Heeney was rated by many here as top 3.

Just refreshed my memory by searching the old threads as I thought it was definitely the opposite but maybe just my opinion at the time as I thought it was an obvious choice. Petracca was definitely the favourite on here but also a lot were saying tall forward over the mid is the way to go for a build. I remember Heeney was liked and probably did round out the top 3. Laverde and DeGoey were very highly rated too. Which kind of highlights the type of players that were rated highly back then.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I highly doubt we make a serious play for Reid and pick 1. Might make a token offer but others should be able to make a better go of it.

Melbourne would be seriously keen wouldn't they, how could they get it done?

They cant.