List Mgmt. Pick #5 - Welcome Adam Cerra [Traded to Carlton for 6 & F3]

[Electronic_Renaissance]

Just freaking wish Valente would hurry up. If he gets fit, he’s at least a softening blow. Tucker can go back into the midfield too. More concerning that no replacement for Mundy then Cerra goes.

Cerra will probably retire before Mundy so that won't be a problem. Mundy is immortal.

If Cerra leaves I'm sure we'll get decent compensation. We can just hope we use it wisely.

 

[theGav56]

Pav used to sign during the year and then the club would announce it when they felt like the fans needed a boost.

That may be the case with Cerra.

 

[Cesoir]

I am just really not that concerned about Cerra. He stays, he stays. He leaves, he leaves. I don't think he's that "generational" talent that you would be desperate to keep at all costs. I think all of Darcy, Brayshaw and Serong project as more crucial players long term.

Having said that, I would be more than happy if he stays - if he leaves then I think we do our best to cover him with guys like Excellente and Tucker, then make out like bandits at the draft with the picks we get for him.

What we are seeing now is that if you can keep a list fairly healthy and together, then the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. I don't think losing Cerra will derail our inevitable march to success.

 

[theGav56]

I am just really not that concerned about Cerra. He stays, he stays. He leaves, he leaves. I don't think he's that "generational" talent that you would be desperate to keep at all costs. I think all of Darcy, Brayshaw and Serong project as more crucial players long term.

Having said that, I would be more than happy if he stays - if he leaves then I think we do our best to cover him with guys like Excellente and Tucker, then make out like bandits at the draft with the picks we get for him.

What we are seeing now is that if you can keep a list fairly healthy and together, then the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. I don't think losing Cerra will derail our inevitable march to success.

You and I are in total agreement here.

My primary concern is that the club may end up unbalancing the list payments with the Cerra contract. That is, overpay to keep him, and create an expectationamongst the player mangers. Darcy resigning hopefully creates a benchmark around what contracts for the rising players should look like.

 

[Electronic_Renaissance]

You and I are in total agreement here.

My primary concern is that the club may end up unbalancing the list payments with the Cerra contract. That is, overpay to keep him. Darcy resigning hopefully creates a benchmark around what contracts for the rising players should look like.

That's what concerns me also. Cerra should get around the same as Brayshaw and Darcy. If he wants more he can try his luck elsewhere.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I am just really not that concerned about Cerra. He stays, he stays. He leaves, he leaves. I don't think he's that "generational" talent that you would be desperate to keep at all costs. I think all of Darcy, Brayshaw and Serong project as more crucial players long term.

Having said that, I would be more than happy if he stays - if he leaves then I think we do our best to cover him with guys like Excellente and Tucker, then make out like bandits at the draft with the picks we get for him.

What we are seeing now is that if you can keep a list fairly healthy and together, then the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. I don't think losing Cerra will derail our inevitable march to success.

I'm the same, the only thing that really worries me is what happens when you take out him AND Mundy, that's by far and away the best two ball users in our midfield. Will make a big difference and be hard to cover. This probably feeds into why I'd rather just trade him now then let him sign for 2 years. Give us time to adjust while we still by some miracle have Mundy out there

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

That's what concerns me also. Cerra should get around the same as Brayshaw and Darcy. If he wants more he can try his luck elsewhere.

He should get less if we are honest...

 

[theGav56]

I'm the same, the only thing that really worries me is what happens when you take out him AND Mundy, that's by far and away the best two ball users in our midfield. Will make a big difference and be hard to cover. This probably feeds into why I'd rather just trade him now then let him sign for 2 years. Give us time to adjust while we still by some miracle have Mundy out there

The only real answer to that is that Walters, Valente, O'Driscoll, Tucker and Western will have the opportunity to step up. And the other strategy would be using Young or Chapman through the midfield.

 

[Bring back Drum]

Personally I hope the club sticks to its guns with 4 years. If he’s weighing up now, he’s not going to hang around any longer than 2 years if they sign him for 2 years.
If he goes it brings in a player like Erasmus (or better) & a KPF. It will actually round out our list a bit better & we get development into some good kids 2 years earlier.

 

[Electronic_Renaissance]

He should get less if we are honest...

Based on his output compared to Brayshaw and Darcy he deserves less. Problem is he has the skills and we need that.

By holding out he really is gambling a bit. A drop in form or a major injury (don't want that of course), his value drops.

I think the young players like Serong, Brayshaw and Darcy should get rewarded for commiting earlier.

"Sign now and get more!!", like a bonus for showing commitment.

He must surely know by now what he's doing. I hope he's not holding the club to ransom, I think I mentioned it in another post a player like that is someone I don't want at my club. I don't care what your name is or how good you are, it's not good for the clubs culture.

 

[Hazelsnuts]

The only real answer to that is that Walters, Valente, O'Driscoll, Tucker and Western will have the opportunity to step up. And the other strategy would be using Young or Chapman through the midfield.

Totally agree with this, for some reason I am really bullish on O’Driscoll, like his appetite for training and the contest, something about him- ditto Chapman.
I feel we have the pieces in place to cover and develop the loss of Cerra, he’s been really good but I see his capabilities in other’s also.

 

[mightymouse75]

Cerra hasn't really done a great deal. It's all been about potential.

 

[Hank Heavenly]

From a Richmond perspective, it appears we have two potential (young) targets...

Cerra as reported, and Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

(his grandfather won a few flags with us) so he has always been linked.

Our current draft hand is 2 x First rounders, and 2 x second rounders (with one of each the following year).
So over a two year period, we have 3 x first rounders and 3 x second rounders...

I imagine our DREAM scenario would leave us with Cerra, Green, 1 first rounder and 1 second rounder over the two years.

We don't have any F&S's or academy players on the cards from what I can see, so points not really an issue for us..


I would envisage our trade offer would be a first and second round pick (one may be a future) and then potentially upgrades or additional picks your way later in the draft.

Personally I see it difficult to get one of those done, let alone two, but that's why it was the dream scenario...




Aside from the Cerra talk, I like the way you guys are building...

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

From a Richmond perspective, it appears we have two potential (young) targets...

Cerra as reported, and Tom Green (his grandfather won a few flags with us) so he has always been linked.

Our current draft hand is 2 x First rounders, and 2 x second rounders (with one of each the following year).
So over a two year period, we have 3 x first rounders and 3 x second rounders...

I imagine our DREAM scenario would leave us with Cerra, Green, 1 first rounder and 1 second rounder over the two years.

We don't have any F&S's or academy players on the cards from what I can see, so points not really an issue for us..


I would envisage our trade offer would be a first and second round pick (one may be a future) and then potentially upgrades or additional picks your way later in the draft.

Personally I see it difficult to get one of those done, let alone two, but that's why it was the dream scenario...




Aside from the Cerra talk, I like the way you guys are building...

Yeah mate, the only world you keep a 1st round pick over the next two years and get Green and Cerra is a dreamworld like you said. I personally think your good first round pick this year and a second is enough for Cerra but most on here will probably disagree with me.

Is there any actual chatter on you getting Green outside the grandfather link and the wishful thinking of the Richmond board?

 

[theGav56]

Totally agree with this, for some reason I am really bullish on O’Driscoll, like his appetite for training and the contest, something about him- ditto Chapman.
I feel we have the pieces in place to cover and develop the loss of Cerra, he’s been really good but I see his capabilities in other’s also.

We should be bullish about him. The club would know him better than any draft prospect we have ever had apart from NGA lads. We traded up to get him. He projects as playing into an area of need for the team. His sister and family are involved with the club.

All draft picks are speculative, but if he isn't a strong selection we have problems with our talent identification.

 

[theGav56]

If we do end up trading Cerra to Richmond, their first of their 2021 first rounders, and a second round next year would be around my expectation. Or perhaps something like their first first-rounder this year and next, with them getting our second rounders this year and next.

 

[Electronic_Renaissance]

Cerra hasn't really done a great deal. It's all been about potential.

Plus he's a pick #5, if he went in the second round I doubt there would be as much interest.

 

[theGav56]

Cerra hasn't really done a great deal. It's all been about potential.

He has done a heck of a lot more than any player we get from traded in draft picks.

 

[mayne iac]

Yeah mate, the only world you keep a 1st round pick over the next two years and get Green and Cerra is a dreamworld like you said. I personally think your good first round pick this year and a second is enough for Cerra but most on here will probably disagree with me.

Is there any actual chatter on you getting Green outside the grandfather link and the wishful thinking of the Richmond board?

You think a first and a second is ok for Cerra, are you guys both in the same dream??

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

You think a first and a second is ok for Cerra, are you guys both in the same dream??

I have this debate on the DTFA board all the time. You cant use 'first' as a blanket term. If Richmond were making finals, i'd want both of their firsts. Richmond arent going to make finals from here, it looks like their pick is going to be about pick 7, that has dramatically different value to pick 12. For example, it would almost cost you pick 12 and 18 by themselves to get pick 6 in a trade.

Pick 7 and pick 26 is as good a return as we are going to get for Cerra, I'd be stunned if Richmond hand over both firsts they have this year

 

[theGav56]

I have this debate on the DTFA board all the time. You cant use 'first' as a blanket term. If Richmond were making finals, i'd want both of their firsts. Richmond arent going to make finals from here, it looks like their pick is going to be about pick 7, that has dramatically different value to pick 12. For example, it would almost cost you pick 12 and 18 by themselves to get pick 6 in a trade.

Pick 7 and pick 26 is as good a return as we are going to get for Cerra, I'd be stunned if Richmond hand over both firsts they have this year

For me it is not just about looking at Cerra's notional trade value, it is also about what Richmond need to be doing in terms of rebuilding. They will not just pony up two firsts. That is unless, as happened with Weller, they see getting him in as critical for them, and they have made a commitment they will get the deal done.

 

[Paracleet]

I have this debate on the DTFA board all the time. You cant use 'first' as a blanket term. If Richmond were making finals, i'd want both of their firsts. Richmond arent going to make finals from here, it looks like their pick is going to be about pick 7, that has dramatically different value to pick 12. For example, it would almost cost you pick 12 and 18 by themselves to get pick 6 in a trade.

Pick 7 and pick 26 is as good a return as we are going to get for Cerra, I'd be stunned if Richmond hand over both firsts they have this year

They are not going to finish lower than 12th so it's pick 9 after bids at a minimum. At this point the models are forecasting a median finishing position of 10th which is pick 11 at best.
Personally I think you're wrong and if there is a trade we will be very unreasonable.

I think we *might* settle of both firsts and a second the other way.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

They are not going to finish lower than 12th so it's pick 9 after bids at a minimum. At this point the models are forecasting a median finishing position of 10th which is pick 11 at best.
Personally I think you're wrong and if there is a trade we will be very unreasonable.

I think we *might* settle of both firsts and a second the other way.

Happy to be wrong but I reckon most are wanting too much in here and setting themselves up for disappointment unless Cerra has a couple of BoG performances this next 6 weeks

 

[Van_Dyke]

most are wanting too much in here and setting themselves up for disappointment

should be the slogan of the club

 

[Joao]

Remember whatever pick it is goes back a minimum of 2 places for Darcy and Daicos.