Player value if you picked them

[Spemonie]

I thought it would be great to see what value player we got through Wells. Ignore wether it was a 2001 draft or 2005. Jast make it out from their quality and what pick you would use on them.
​

​

Player: // Pick: // My opinion:
Mitch Brown // 15 (1) // ???
Jimmy Bartel // 8 (1) // top 3 value
Andrew Mackie // 7 (1) // maybe 5
Travis Varcoe // 15 (1) // top 10
Harry Taylor // 17 (1) // maybe 5
Josh Hunt // 44 // 20-25
James Kelly // 17 // top 5
Daniel Menzel // 17 // top 5
Joel Corey // 8 // top 5
Trent West // 31 // low 20
Tom Lonergan // 23 // high teens
Joel Selwood // 7 // 1
Dawson Simpson // 34 // low 20
Shannon Byrnes // 40* // 30(afl)
Josh Cowan // 56 // ???
Taylor Hunt // 49 // 20-25
Steve Johnson // 24 // top 5

Mitch Duncan // 28 // top 10
Tom Gillies // 33 // 20-25
Tom Hawkins // 41 // 1st round
Mathew Stokes // 61 // late 1st round
Allen Christensen // 40 // top 10
Cameron Guthrie // 23 // ???
Matthew Scarlett // 45 // top 5
James Podsiadly // 50* // 20
Steven Motlop 39 late 20
Simon Hogan // 57 // late 20/early 30
Paul Chapman // 31 // top 10
Nathan Vardy // 42 // top 10
Darren Milburn // 48 // top 15
David Wojcinski // 24 // 10-20
Corey Enright // 47 // top 5
Camron Ling // 38 // early 20
Shane Mumford // 57* // 1st round
​

​

* Rokie Draft
??? not sure still early
​

What is your opinion. I think this is a great way to show how good Wells in. Also it would be good to see how a player goes and compare the value of the player later.
​

Also if a player is left out let me know and ill add them to this list​

sorry its messy im still new to forums and the spaces didn't come out

 

[Vdubs]

You have included Mumford/ Ling/ Milburn, but not Mooney, , Rooke, Ablett, Ottens, Harley??

I'd have Wojo top 10, if not top 5 , very important and under rated/unique player.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I thought it would be great to see what value player we got through Wells. Ignore wether it was a 2001 draft or 2005. Jast make it out from their quality and what pick you would use on them.

Player: // Pick: // My opinion:
Andrew Mackie // 7 (1) // maybe 5
Harry Taylor // 17 (1) // maybe 5
Daniel Menzel // 17 // top 5

Paul Chapman // 31 // top 10
​

If Mackie/Taylor/Menzel are top five talents, then Chapman, for what he's produced over his career, simply has to be.

With respect to the thread (which is quite interesting), I think you'd have to put the players back in their original draft to get a gauge of their value. In that case, Mackie as top five (2002) and Chapman as top ten (1999) makes a bit more sense, but by saying that we need to ignore the draft year, sounds like you are valuing those players ahead of Chapman and while I think they all are or will be very good-great players of the club, they've got a mountain of work to do to be in Chapman's league.

I'll do a basic analysis for the players who've had a senior game on our list (I assume we're supposed to ignore the father-son rule). Sorry, I'm ignoring all the rookie drafts from the years as well, as it makes it too complicated (i.e. not considering Sandilands for the 2002 draft, or Cox for the 1999 draft, just where our own players would have gone among the players who were in the national draft):

1997
Scarlett would go top three. I'd love to say that he's definitely #1, but Goodes and Black are also champions of the game and walk-up starts in the AFL team of the decade from 2000-2009. At gunpoint, I'd go Goodes #1, Scarlett #2 and Black #3, but it's an extremely difficult call.

1998
I agree with VEEDUBS. Wojcinski would be top ten

1. Hayes
2. Fevola
3. J. Bolton
4. Rawlings
5. Embley
6. C. Bolton
7. Carr
8. Wojcinski
9. McVeigh
10. Ramanauskas
11. Headland
12. Baker
13. Stenglein
14. Davis
15. Longmuir

1999
1. J. Brown
​

2. M. Pavlich
3. C. Enright
4. C. Ling
5. J. Corey
6. P. Chapman (those four also incredibly difficult to split)
7. D. Glass
8. R. O'Keefe
9. B. Green
10. C. Bruce
11. P. Hasleby
12. R. Murphy
13. D. Hille
14. L. Davis
15. L. Gilbee

2000
Josh Hunt is a tough one to gauge. I'd say he'd be somewhere around the 20 mark. The players who have been better players than him without a doubt include: Riewoldt, Didak, Cornes, Kerr, Thompson, Burgoyne, Cassisi, Petrie, Cross, Newman and Johncock.

Those that are a bit less clear cut are: Pike (three flags, plenty of games after being redrafted by Brisbane), Buchanan, Williams, McPhee, Coughlan (won a b&f, but barely played after age 23), Harris, McGrath, Motlop, Koscitzke, S.Wakelin (redrafted by the Pies) and Corey Jones. Chances are he'd be behind a few of those and ahead of the others, so I'd put him somewhere in the mid-high teens.

2001
The standard Ablett/Judd (either/or) at one and two. I'd have Hodge at three, just ahead of Bartel and Swan (seems pretty harsh putting Swan at #5!). The overall draft doesn't seem overly deep, but the quality at the top was/is amazing.

1. Judd
2. Ablett
3. Hodge
4. Bartel
5. Swan
6. Mitchell
7. Dal Santo
8. Johnson
9. Montagna
10. Lake
11. Kelly
12. Ball

2002
Mackie, Lonergan and Byrnes (rookie). Lonners has only really hit his stride as a key defender in the last two years, so he still has the potential to shoot up this list, if he continues his 2011 form.

1. Goddard
2. Watson
3. Wells
4. McVeigh
5. Simpson
6. Mackie
7. Brennan
8. Merrett
9. A. Selwood
10. Malceski
11. Lonergan
12. McIntosh
13. Ebert
14. Byrnes
15. Gilham
16. Rivers (has there been a more nondescript Rising Star?)

2003
Mark Blake was the last player from this draft left on our list.

2004
Prismall, Ablett, Egan and Ottens (via trade) was our haul from this pretty underrated draft.

2005
Pretty deep draft. The players we took who are still on our list are Varcoe/West/Stokes.

1. Pendlebury
2. Murphy
3. Thomas
4. Swallow
5. Kennedy (Car/WC)
6. Birchall
7. Ryder
8. Varcoe
9. Clark
10. Gilbert
11. Stokes
12. Vince
13. Warnock
14. Higgins
15. West
16. Jones
17. Patfull
18. Douglas
19. Bailey
20. Bower

2006
The draft where everything fell our way. Wells didn't need to think too far outside the square to snag Hawkins and Selwood, but his two other picks (Hogan and Djerrkura) are still very much unknown quantities at AFL level. Hawkins also has the potential to jump up to somewhere in the top 2-3 over the next two years, if he keeps his late 2011 form up (well, he could go past Reid, if he keeps it up, definitely!)

1. Selwood
2. Riewoldt
3. Goldstein
4. Gibbs
5. Reid
6. Kennedy (Haw/Syd)
7. Boak
8. Frawley
9. Tippett
10. Leuenberger
11. Hawkins
12. MacKenzie
13. Armitage
14. Grigg
15. Rodan
16. Dawes
17. Gray
18. Jetta
19. N. Brown
20. A. Edwards
21. Garland
22. M. Brown
23. Westhoff
24. Hansen
25. Petterd
26. Renouf
27. Mackay
28. Schofield
29. Goldsack
30. Hampson
31. Reimers
32. Hill
33. Gumbleton
34. S. Edwards
35. Davey
36. Connors
37. Everitt
38. Hogan
39. Djerrkura
40. Collins

2007
Taylor and Simpson

1. Cotchin
2. Rioli
3. Taylor
4. McEvoy
5. Kreuzer
6. Dangerfield
7. Pears
8. Walker
9. Grimes
10. Thompson
11. Henderson
12. Ward
13. S. Selwood
14. Otten
15. Lobbe
16. Palmer
17. Hooker
18. Mayne
19. Ebert
20. Rance
21. Grant
22. Masten
23. Bradley
24. Tarrant
25. Simpson
26. Bird
27. Collier
28. Hinkley
29. Armfield
30. Maric

2008
Probably the most difficult of all. The 'your guess is as good as mine' for Geelong's picks. It's a very good draft and there's too much uncertainty with our players at the moment to put them in order. I'd suggest Taylor Hunt would be our only pick to definitely go earlier, maybe early-mid 30s. Brown would have definitely dropped and would probably be around Hunt's range. Gillies was drafted at 33 and Motlop at 39. I'd suggest they'd both be about the same, or possibly drop a handful of picks.

2009
I think Menzel and Christensen would definitely go top ten if the draft happened again today, with Duncan going around then, as well (or not too far further back). Vardy would probably get in the top 15 and Pods would be top 20 (and only that late because of his age). Cowan would go somewhere in the 20-30s.

1. Martin
2. Fyfe
3. Scully
4. Menzel
5. Trengove
6. Christensen
7. Morabito
8. Butcher
9. Reid
10. Duncan
11. Bastinac
12. Ball
13. Melksham
14. Stratton
15. Vardy
16. Rohan
17. Podsiadly
18. Talia
19. Pittard
20. Gunston

For the 2010-2011 drafts, your guess is as good as mine.

 

[marshhhhh]

Brilliant stuff MC, what a great read.
Was thinking maybe Bartel > Hodge in their draft.
3 flags, Charlie + Norm Smith > 1 flag + Norm Smith for me.
Regardless, 2 champions, splitting hairs really.

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

agree
terrific thread

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

would definitely say Chapman would today go at pick no.1 or near about's knowing what he has done in his career.
He has produced time and time again in finals and also been a matchwinner and if blokes like Scully, Murphy, Gibbs & Cooney etc have gone number 1 then Chappy so far shits all over those youngsters (although given they are relatively fresh and starting their own careers).

Stevie J & Bartel would easily go number one imo, two of the very players in the AFL

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

then again I just saw the 1999 draft list

some exceptional talent in there

 

[marshhhhh]

would definitely say Chapman would today go at pick no.1 or near about's knowing what he has done in his career.
He has produced time and time again in finals and also been a matchwinner and if blokes like Scully, Murphy, Gibbs & Cooney etc have gone number 1 then Chappy so far shits all over those youngsters (although given they are relatively fresh and starting their own careers).

Stevie J & Bartel would easily go number one imo, two of the very players in the AFL

I know Chappy has achieved alot more, but probably a bit harsh to say that Chappy shits all over Gibbs and Coons.
Both are stars for their respective clubs, and had they had the success that some of our players have had, and Chap had the limited success they have had, it would be roles reversed.
If you look purely at the skills of the players, I wouldn't put Chappy all that far ahead. And I love Chap

 

[vinum coupe]

Good read MC.
I think you have players too high in the 09 draft though. Especially Vardy.
I would probably go;

Menzel @9
Duncan @15
Christensen @18
Vardy @30

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

I know Chappy has achieved alot more, but probably a bit harsh to say that Chappy shits all over Gibbs and Coons.
Both are stars for their respective clubs, and had they had the success that some of our players have had, and Chap had the limited success they have had, it would be roles reversed.
If you look purely at the skills of the players, I wouldn't put Chappy all that far ahead. And I love Chap

Cooney is nothing compared to Chappy, what's Cooney ever done in big games?

Look at his final series history albeit short...nothing special from a brownlow medal winning midfielder. He gets more gloss than he's worth because of the brownlow medal win but come on, Ablett was clearly the best player that year and deserved to win that brownlow not Cooney who's all but faded away now.

Gibbs yeh..he's pure class but what I like about Chapman that most other top draft picks can't give you is that he has the ability to play majority of roles and has done so throughout his career.
He moves into the midfield and he'll average 23 touches, move him forward and he takes contested marks and slots through 35 goals.

Most Cat fans would agree that Chapman had a relatively average season by his own standards yet what he was still able to produce was equal to what those other guys did and we are talking about a bloke who's 29 years of age and at the end of his career. Wait till he has a full pre-season 2012 and we see a fully fit (injury-free) Chapman

 

[marshhhhh]

Agree, Ablett was stiff, but Cooney wasn't terrible, and from memory had a terrible run with injury this year.
I'm not saying he's in the same league as our main man Chappy, he just probably isn't as far behind as you suggest

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

Agree, Ablett was stiff, but Cooney wasn't terrible, and from memory had a terrible run with injury this year.
I'm not saying he's in the same league as our main man Chappy, he just probably isn't as far behind as you suggest

true but then again, I have been known to overvaluate our team from time to time

Can't blame me...they have won 3 flags and all because of absolute champions like Chappy

 

[marshhhhh]

true but then again, I have been known to overvaluate our team from time to time

Can't blame me...they have won 3 flags and all because of absolute champions like Chappy

I like the keep the lid on just a bit.
But I do love our Chappy (note avatar)

 

[Spemonie]

Yeah sorry everyone. Its not that great intro as I really didn't have time to sort all this out nicely. I would have had them all with their years and round they were picked. I didn't include traded players because Wells didn't pick them. Also players who havnt played a game, as there is not enough info, and yeah sorry I forgot a few.

 

[marshhhhh]

Yeah sorry everyone. Its not that great intro as I really didn't have time to sort all this out nicely. I would have had them all with their years and round they were picked. I didn't include traded players because Wells didn't pick them. Also players who havnt played a game, as there is not enough info, and yeah sorry I forgot a few.

You're excused mate not the end of the world.
MC fixed it up nicely

 

[vinum coupe]

Daniel Menzel // 17 // top 5
Mitch Duncan // 28 // top 10
Allen Christensen // 40 // top 10
Nathan Vardy // 42 // top 10

All top 10 huh? Gee the other clubs must be spewing.

 

[marshhhhh]

All top 10 huh? Gee the other clubs must be spewing.

I'd probably almost agree with that.
Certainly not the most fruitful draft.

 

[vinum coupe]

Lets not forget we're only 2 years in, but you can't be serious.


Priority 1 Tom Scully Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup Melbourne
1 2 Jack Trengove Sturt SANFL Melbourne
1 3 Dustin Martin Bendigo Pioneers TAC Cup Richmond
1 4 Anthony Morabito Peel WAFL Fremantle
1 5 Ben Cunnington Geelong Falcons TAC Cup North Melbourne
1 6 Gary Rohan Geelong Falcons TAC Cup Sydney
1 7 Brad Sheppard East Fremantle WAFL West Coast
1 8 John Butcher Gippsland Power TAC Cup Port Adelaide
1 9 Andrew Moore Eastern Ranges TAC Cup Port Adelaide
1 10 Jake Melksham Calder Cannons TAC Cup Essendon
1 11 Jordan Gysberts Eastern Ranges TAC Cup Melbourne
1 12 Kane Lucas East Fremantle WAFL Carlton
1 13 Daniel Talia Calder Cannons TAC Cup Adelaide
1 14 Lewis Jetta Swan Districts WAFL Sydney
1 15 Christian Howard Glenelg SANFL Western Bulldogs
1 16 Jasper Pittard Geelong Falcons TAC Cup Port Adelaide
1 17 Daniel Menzel Central District SANFL Geelong
2 18 Luke Tapscott North Adelaide SANFL Melbourne
2 19 Benjamin Griffiths Eastern Ranges TAC Cup Richmond
2 20 Nathan Fyfe Claremont WAFL Fremantle
2 21 Ryan Bastinac Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup North Melbourne
2 22 Gerrick Weedon Claremont WAFL West Coast
2 23 Koby Stevens Gippsland Power TAC Cup West Coast
2 24 Jake Carlisle Calder Cannons TAC Cup Essendon
2 25 Aaron Black Peel WAFL North Melbourne
2 26 Travis Colyer Claremont WAFL Essendon
2 27 Callum Bartlett Geelong Falcons TAC Cup Brisbane Lions
2 28 Mitch Duncan East Perth WAFL Geelong
2 29 Jack Gunston Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup Adelaide
2 30 Luke Ball St Kilda AFL Collingwood
2 31 Jason Tutt Ainslie NEAFL Western Bulldogs
2 32 Nicholas Winmar Claremont WAFL St Kilda
2 33 Anthony Long Calder Cannons TAC Cup Essendon
3 34 Max Gawn Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup Melbourne
3 35 David Astbury North Ballarat Rebels TAC Cup Richmond
3 36 Joel Houghton Perth WAFL Fremantle
3 37 Jamie MacMillan Oakleigh Chargers TAC Cup North Melbourne
3 38 Sam Reid Murray Bushrangers TAC Cup Sydney
3 39 Sam Grimley Northern Knights TAC Cup Hawthorn
3 40 Allen Christensen Geelong Falcons TAC Cup Geelong
3 41 Ayden Kennedy Eastern Ranges TAC Cup North Melbourne
3 42 Nathan Vardy Gippsland Power TAC Cup Geelong
3 43 Marcus Davies North Hobart TFL Carlton
3 44 Matthew Dea North Ballarat Rebels TAC Cup Richmond
3 45 Sam Shaw Oakleigh Chargers TAC Cup Adelaide
3 46 Benjamin Stratton East Perth WAFL Hawthorn
3 47 Ryan Harwood Glenorchy TFL Brisbane Lions
3 48 Jesse Crichton North Launceston TFL Fremantle
3 49 Dylan Roberton Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup Fremantle
4 50 Jack Fitzpatrick Western Jets TAC Cup Melbourne
4 51 Troy Taylor South Alice Springs CAFL Richmond
4 52 Justin Bollenhagen South Adelaide SANFL Fremantle
4 53 Brayden Norris Murray Bushrangers TAC Cup North Melbourne
4 54 Byron Sumner Woodville-West Torrens SANFL Sydney
4 55 Trent Dennis-Lane Subiaco WAFL Sydney
4 56 Josh Cowan North Ballarat Rebels TAC Cup Geelong
4 57 Jordan Williams Bendigo Pioneers TAC Cup Hawthorn
4 58 Rhan Hooper Brisbane Lions AFL Hawthorn
4 59 Rohan Kerr Dandenong Stingrays TAC Cup Carlton
4 60 Jesse W. Smith North Melbourne AFL St Kilda
4 61 James Craig North Adelaide SANFL Adelaide
4 62 Ben Sinclair Oakleigh Chargers TAC Cup Collingwood
4 63 Lukas Markovic Box Hill Hawks VFL Western Bulldogs
4 64 Adam Pattison Richmond AFL St Kilda
4 65 Jeremy Laidler (Promoted rookie) Geelong
5 66 Pass Melbourne
5 67 Jeromey Webberley Clarence TFL Richmond
5 68 Pass Fremantle
5 69 Taylor Duryea Murray Bushrangers TAC Cup Hawthorn
5 70 Matthew Suckling (Promoted rookie) Hawthorn
5 71 Ben Nason Central District SANFL Richmond
5 72 Sam Jacobs (Promoted rookie) Carlton
5 73 Jesse O'Brien North Adelaide SANFL Brisbane Lions
5 74 Brodie Martin (Promoted rookie) Adelaide
5 75 Josh Thomas Redland QAFL Collingwood
5 76 Shane Thorne Wanderers NTFL Western Bulldogs
5 77 Will Johnson Sandringham VFL St Kilda
6 78 Pass Richmond
6 79 Greg Broughton (Promoted rookie) Fremantle
6 80 Cruize Garlett (Promoted rookie) North Melbourne
6 81 Pass Sydney
6 82 Daniel Stewart (Promoted rookie) Port Adelaide
6 83 Aaron Joseph (Promoted rookie) Carlton
6 84 Bryce Retzlaff Labrador QAFL Brisbane Lions
6 85 Simon Buckley Melbourne AFL Collingwood
6 86 Liam Picken (Promoted rookie) Western Bulldogs
6 87 Zac Dawson (Promoted rookie) St Kilda
6 88 Wade Thompson (Promoted rookie) Port Adelaide
7 89 Robin Nahas (Promoted rookie) Richmond
7 90 Kristin Thornton (Promoted rookie) Sydney
7 91 Matt Maguire St Kilda AFL Brisbane Lions
7 92 James Mulligan (Promoted rookie) Western Bulldogs
7 93 Luke Miles (Promoted rookie) St Kilda
8 94 Andrew Browne (Promoted rookie) Richmond
8 95 Pearce Hanley (Promoted rookie) Brisbane Lions

 

[keen cats fella]

Good read MC.
I think you have players too high in the 09 draft though. Especially Vardy.
I would probably go;

Menzel @9
Duncan @15
Christensen @18
Vardy @30

I think this is some serious underrating. Vardy I believe is on par with Menzel for talent, and for potential reigns supreme. In 5 years he could well be our most important player.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Good read MC.
I think you have players too high in the 09 draft though. Especially Vardy.
I would probably go;

Menzel @9
Duncan @15
Christensen @18
Vardy @30

Fair call. I guess my response is that I watch every Geelong game without fail, and make a note of focusing on new players to see how they are tracking, so perhaps I overrate Vardy's production over nine games, compared to players from other teams who have played the same number of games. It's probably that tricky timeframe, where most players from the 2008 draft (apart from the ones in our colours) are well on their way to establishing themselves and starting to hit their prime, so it's easier to judge with a reasonable degree of certainty. The players from the class of 2009 (unless they are out and out guns) are mainly still finding their feet and 2012 will probably be the year where many of them take their game to the next level.

I'd probably say you've gone a bit too far in the other direction (would be interesting to see your top 20/top 30 from 2009), but it's always good to get alternative viewpoints.

 

[vinum coupe]

I honestly dont watch enough footy to construct a list that deep with accuracy.
But that draft list is way too deep to have all 4 players in the top 10 (not that you were the one to say that)

I agree Vardy could come right into it at some stage. We all know how important and highly rated a good KPP can be.

I think he has shown promise. But that's all at this stage. His output has been minimal. To be honest having Ottens as number 1 is always going to help the number 2 to not get exposed.

That's where I think 2012 will be tough for the number 2. That person is going to have to step up and almost become a number 1 in relative output.

I dont see Vardy as being anywhere near being able to do that yet.