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Cleric

Cleric

Brownlow Medallist
Veteran 10k Posts
Oct 14, 2011
17,684
20,505
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor#/round/1 to play

This is how I see the year panning out.
Top 8
20190117_094854.jpg

Then my bottom 10
20190117_094909.jpg
For me the ones that were hard to pick were WB, Haw and St Kilda.
WB still have alot of talent, I just think Beverages time might be up and lost the players.
With Mitchell down, I think Haw are in for a poor year, but they can over perform with Clarkson. And St Kilda are make or break this year, and could do better than I think.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Using the ladder predictor.

Margin is default 20 points.

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Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 

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I posted this November on the main board. Might have to rejig the Hawks but I'll leave them for now

Adelaide 16-6
Melbourne 15-7
Eagles 14-8
Hawks 14-8

Giants 14-8
Pies 14-8
Richmond 13-9
Essendon 13-9

Brisbane 11-11
Geelong 11-11
Port 11-11
Sydney 10-12

North 9-13
Fremantle 9-13

Dogs 7-15
Saints 6-16
Carlton 6-16
Suns 4-18

+2 or -2
 
I had:

1: Richmond
2: West Coast
3: Adelaide
4: Melbourne
5: Collingwood
6: GWS
7: Essendon
8: Sydney

9: Briabane
10: Geelong
11: Port
12: North
13: Hawthorn
14: W Bulldogs
15: Fremantle
16: St Kilda
17: Carlton
18: Gold Coast
 
1. Collingwood
2. Adelaide
3. West Coast
4. Richmond
5. Melbourne
6. Essendon
7. GWS
8. Sydney

9. Geelong
10. North
11. Hawthorn
12. Brisbane
13. Port
14. Fremantle
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Carlton
17. St Kilda
18. Gold Coast

I feel like the top 5 will be really tight and could go in any order. Then I think Essendon will be a bolter. They started the year horribly with a 2-6 start but after that they were as good as any and that’s without Fantasia and Daniher for most of the 2nd half. Then they’ve added Dylan Shiel to strengthen their midfield (weakest link).
 
ladder predictor.PNG

That's what I got with a default margin of 20 points, and picking the team I'd rate as a >50% chance of winning (so no upsets for the sake of). That's pretty similar to what I'd assume at a feel, though probably worth mentioning that there are teams like Adelaide, Collingwood and Richmond where I don't think they'll hit those respective heights due to ignoring potential upsets (and at least 1 is bound to happen to both)

That said, we have a very easy draw currently with a lot of our more difficult matchups in Adelaide (we don't verse a contender away as well, outside of the Melbourne game at a neutral ground, though I gave that to them considering what they did to us in Alice Springs last year). Beyond that the one team I'm surprised I had high was Geelong, but a large part of that is they have a good swathe of difficult games in Geelong. West Coast are probably a tad unlucky though they had a fair few difficult matchups throughout the season (Here against us, away against every contender except GWS, Geelong in Geelong) which I didn't give them, but they'd be a team I'd expect to outperform this prediction. Gold Coast have a lot of easier matchups actually, and with Dew being in his second year, there should be some considerable improvement there. The rest I don't really see moving from their 2018 position, or are following a trend I expect them too (i.e. Port, Hawks decreasing, Brisbane relatively staying put)


For those playing at home, I had Carlton beating Saints in round 21.
 
lunacy said:
1. Collingwood
2. Adelaide
3. West Coast
4. Richmond
5. Melbourne
6. Essendon
7. GWS
8. Sydney

9. Geelong
10. North
11. Hawthorn
12. Brisbane
13. Port
14. Fremantle
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Carlton
17. St Kilda
18. Gold Coast

I feel like the top 5 will be really tight and could go in any order. Then I think Essendon will be a bolter. They started the year horribly with a 2-6 start but after that they were as good as any and that’s without Fantasia and Daniher for most of the 2nd half. Then they’ve added Dylan Shiel to strengthen their midfield (weakest link).
Click to expand...
Hope to get around to doing mine when I get a bit of time. While I will tweak this a bit, it is the closest I've seen to my predictions on this thread to date.
 

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Using the ladder predictor I came up with the following:

1) Richmond - W-L 19-3 PC 128.2
2) West Coast - 17-5 126.3%
3) Adelaide - 17-5 125.6%
4) Melbourne - 16-6 121.8
5) Collingwood - 15-7 117.0
6) Geelong - 13-9 113.5
7) GWS - 13-9 111.2
8) Hawthorn - 12-10 106.3
————
9) Essendon - 12-10 104.7
10) Sydney - 12-10 104.1
11) Port - 10-12 101.0
12) North - 10-12 93.2
13) Brisbane - 9-13 94.1
14) Fremantle - 9-13 89.0
15) Western Bulldogs- 5-17 81.7
16) Saints - 3-19 72.5
17) Carlton - 3-19 71.1
18) Gold Coast - 3-19 70.7

Interesting result. Last year there was a clear top 12, with a massive drop off after that. At this stage, I kind of feel Brisbane and Freo +/- Bulldogs will close the gap, but with a massive drop after that. This essentially fits with my general feel going into the season.

The only big mover has really been Adelaide, as a correction from a poor year last year, for various well documented reasons which have hopefully been worked out, to where we were for the 2-3 years prior.

There will no doubt be another couple of surprise movers, either up or down, but often these are hard to predict.

I expect reasonable improvement from Brisbane and Freo, however they were so far off this year that they’ll only really be catching up with the lower parts of the top 8 contenders in 2019.

I think a clear top 5 is about right, with the next 8-9 teams being split by not too much, with often the draw probably separating 6-10.

It looks to be a really good season IMO, perhaps due to general correction of the league following the introduction of GC and GWS.
 
With the new rule changes it's hard to predict.

Teams like Collingwood and richmond will be found out. But who benefits?

Geelong will..
We will.
West Coast will.
Gws will.
Possibly Melbourne they have a good coach.
I would say hoarthorn but mitchel a Big loss. They have an outstanding
Coach.

It's a Coaches year. The evelution of the game since niel Craig changed it, has come to sudden stop.
 
Richmond - 19/3
GWS Giants - 17/5
Adelaide Crows - 17/5
Collingwood - 16/6
West Coast Eagles - 15/7
Melbourne - 14/8
Geelong Cats - 14/8
Sydney Swans - 13/9
Essendon - 13/9
Hawthorn - 12/10
Fremantle - 9/13
Western Bulldogs - 8/14
Brisbane Lions - 8/14
Port Adelaide - 7/15
North Melbourne - 7/15
St Kilda - 5/17
Gold Coast Suns - 3/19
Carlton - 1/21
 

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1547719580162.png \

I recon 4 groups there could see swapping of places

17-18
10-16
5-9
1-4

Did notice Cats to get smashed early with a hard run, so they could end up lower.

But pretty comfortable with that lot.
 
Crows
Richmond
Collingwood
West Coast

Melbourne
GWS
Geelong
Sydney

Essendon
Hawks
North
Brisbane

Power
Fremantle
Western Bulldogs
Saints
Carlton
GC
 

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