Predictions - Super 6

[EagleBlue]

Assuming of course WI beat Kenya (which looks likely) the fixtures are

Mar 7 Aus V SL (Ch9) Tip - Australia
Mar 7 Ind V Ken (D/N) (Fox Sports) Tip - India
Mar 8 Zim V NZ (Fox Sports) Tip - NZ
Mar 10 Ind V SL (prob Ch9) Tip - India
Mar 11 Aus V NZ (Ch9) Tip - Australia
Mar 12 Zim V Ken (Fox Sports) Tip - Zim
Mar 14 Ind V NZ ( prob Ch9) Tip - India
Mar 15 Zim V SL (Fox Sports) Tip - SL
Mar 15 Aus V Ken (D/N) (Ch 9) Tip - Aus

Most of the games I think are pretty easy to tip. I see the pivotal games being Aus V NZ and Ind V NZ. As long as NZ loses 2 out of the 3 games (and no major upsets/rain/washouts by Zimbabwe and Kenya I see the final ladder being

1. Aus
2/3. India, SL (order wont matter)
4. Kenya

As I see it NZ are under the most pressure, if they happen to beat India and Aus they may rise to 3rd but if they lose both they are OUT. Win one of those will probably see them take 4th spot.

 

[Kenny_01]

Aus and Ind are certanties. I think SL will make it also and NZ too.

Kenya might get through though even if they don't win a game?

Kiwis will beat Zimbabwe and will need to beat either Aus or India to make it.

 

[EagleBlue]

Originally posted by Kenny_01
Kiwis will beat Zimbabwe and will need to beat either Aus or India to make it.

No certanties to win even 1 of those 2. Aus and India are the sides to beat the the moment. I think NZ will lose both and yes Kenya will make the S/F without winning a Super 6 game. Just a prediction, not hope.

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by EagleBlue
2/3. India, SL (order wont matter)

It mattered last world cup.

 

[ScouseCat]

New Zealand beat India in a series in New Zealand before the World Cup and aren't without a chance in this game.

My predictions:

1. Australia
2. India
3. Sri Lanka
4. Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe will get a win against Kenya and if they can beat either New Zealand or Sri Lanka, they should overtake Kenya and finish 4th.

Dare I say it though, the weather could play an important part in who makes the semis.

 

[red+black]

Originally posted by Kenny_01
Aus and Ind are certanties. I think SL will make it also and NZ too.

Kenya might get through though even if they don't win a game?

Kiwis will beat Zimbabwe and will need to beat either Aus or India to make it.

not quite. Kenya just need one washout (or an unlikely win), and that will mean the NZ must win all 3 games to overtake them.

Hopefully the final will be Australia v India or New Zealand.

 

[grayham]

NZ are in good form, and still made the playoff despite throwing a game against Kenya.

After the thrashing they gave india recently, they would be hot favourites against them. Should easily account for Zimbabwee who like Kenya are there by default, and may even push Australia (but most likely loose).

That should see them qualify 4th, and from then on its an even race.

A rain washout in any of their games could be trouble though.

 

[Zombie]

NZ are the second best side in the remaining competition and should win all of their super sixes games including the Australia match.

 

[grayham]

Originally posted by Zombie
NZ are the second best side in the remaining competition and should win all of their super sixes games including the Australia match.

Surely Australia is the best team, so why wouldnt they beat NZ.

Lets assume Australia wins all its matches in super 6, Kenya loose all its matches and nothing is rained out.

NZ have a very good chance if they beat India and Zimbabwee.
They are less than one win behind Sri lanka. Therefore for Sri lanka to qualify ahead they must beat India and Zimbabwee.
India are exactly one game ahead of NZ, so India would need to beat two to stay ahead of NZ. That means kenya and Srilanka.
So it comes down to Sri-lanka v India. If India win, NZ goes into 4th replacing Sri-lanka. If Sri-lanka win it comes down to run rate between India and NZ for 4th.

Dont know what odds NZ are, but anything at about 10:1 would be good money.

 

[Zombie]

Originally posted by grayham
Surely Australia is the best team, so why wouldnt they beat NZ.

Because NZ have the wood on Australia?

 

[Jars458]

Originally posted by Zombie
Because NZ have the wood on Australia?

They havn't played for over a year.

Aussies will beat new zeland easily if if Martyn does get a duck.

 

[ScouseCat]

Originally posted by Zombie
Because NZ have the wood on Australia?

That is why Australia knocked them out in the ICC Knockout Tournament at the end of last year??

 

[Kenny_01]

Originally posted by Jars458

Aussies will beat new zeland easily if if Martyn does get a duck.

 

[Hollypig]

Originally posted by Kenny_01

What`s to roll eyes at.
Martyns a champ at 3/200, but when we really need some heart he`s a waste of space.
Same as South Africa must have some coloured players, we have to have a designated choker under pressure, & since Mark Waugh`s gone. Step up Damien.

 

[Slax]

Mar 7 Aus V SL - SL
Mar 7 Ind V Ken - India
Mar 8 Zim V NZ - NZ
Mar 10 Ind V SL - India
Mar 11 Aus V NZ - NZ
Mar 12 Zim V Ken - Zim
Mar 14 Ind V NZ - Washout
Mar 15 Zim V SL - SL
Mar 15 Aus V Ken - Aus

Qualifiers for the semis

Australia
India
Sri Lanka
New Zealand

 

[Jars458]

Originally posted by Kenny_01

Can't you make a sensible comment?

If you will remember, NZ had Martyn beaten all ends up in last years VB series.

I still can't see him not struggling against them again.

Have an opinion, don't sink to Dan and Mantis level.

 

[Zombie]

Wasn't Damien Martyn the top scorer when Australia last played New Zealand?

Martyn top scores and Australia wins against NZ for only the 2nd time in their last 6 attempts, if anything that suggests that Australia needs Martyn to fire if they are going to have a chance.

But don't let the facts get in the way of a good Martyn bashing.

BTW Bevan was the highest scorer in the other of the 6 matches that Australia won, just in case you wanted to switch to give him a good bagging

 

[red+black]

Originally posted by Zombie
Australia needs Martyn to fire

we all concur

 

[St-KriS]

I dont think it's so much that Martyn needs to fire, it's our top order that needs to do it. In the 2 close matches we've had so far in this series, we've relied on the lower order to get us over the line. Hayden has been pretty consistant, but he still needs to get a big big score on the board and so does Gilly and Ponting...

If those 3 fire at the beginning of the innings like we know they can, we wont need the middle order.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Originally posted by EagleBlue

Mar 7 Aus V SL (Ch9) Tip - Australia
Mar 7 Ind V Ken (D/N) (Fox Sports) Tip - India
Mar 8 Zim V NZ (Fox Sports) Tip - NZ
Mar 10 Ind V SL (prob Ch9) Tip - India
Mar 11 Aus V NZ (Ch9) Tip - Australia
Mar 12 Zim V Ken (Fox Sports) Tip - Zim
Mar 14 Ind V NZ ( prob Ch9) Tip - India
Mar 15 Zim V SL (Fox Sports) Tip - SL
Mar 15 Aus V Ken (D/N) (Ch 9) Tip - Aus

Points:
12 Australia (beaten Ind, Zimb)
10 Kenya (beaten* SL, NZ)
8 India (beaten Zimb)
7.5 Sri Lanka (beaten NZ)
4 New Zealand
3.5 Zimbabwe

Unlikely Australia will lose all 3 games, so safe. Would probably get through without winning a game too, but lose likley advantage in the Semis (ie. day game / opponent).

Can't see Kenya winning a game. Will be wanting more rain or hoping 10 points is enough (ie. with NZ & Zimb winning no more than 1 game &/OR SL don't win any games).

India should beat Kenya, which should be enough points to progress to semis. Likely to win 2 games though with NZ / SL 50/50 games.

Sri Lanka you would expect will beat Kenya & 11.5 points should be enough to make it - unless a Kenyan game gets washed out!

New Zealand could be the bolter. If they win 2/3 games they should make it (unless there is a Kenyan game washout). Should account for Zimb, so need to win at least against one of Aus/Ind.

Can't see Zimbabwe making it as they would need to win at least 2/3 games. Should be Kenya, but can't see them beating Sri Lanka or New Zealand. Even then 11.5 points may not be enough.

My tip is that Australia, India, Sri Lanka & New Zealand as the best 4 remaining side, will progress through to the semis (assuming no Kenyan washouts!)

 

[Jars458]

Originally posted by Zombie
Wasn't Damien Martyn the top scorer when Australia last played New Zealand?

Martyn top scores and Australia wins against NZ for only the 2nd time in their last 6 attempts, if anything that suggests that Australia needs Martyn to fire if they are going to have a chance.

But don't let the facts get in the way of a good Martyn bashing.

BTW Bevan was the highest scorer in the other of the 6 matches that Australia won, just in case you wanted to switch to give him a good bagging

You were the one who said NZ had the wood on us

How did Marto go in the games that we lost??

It can't be denied that NZ had him worked out in last years VB series.

 

[amortiser]

My Understanding is that each side plays games against those in the opposite pool.

With Kenya and Sri Lanka in the same pool they will not play each other in the Super Six series.

Consequently, if the sides in Australia's pool win all their games then Kenya will progress to the semis without winning a game in the Super Six.

The pivotal game for Kenya will be the Zimbabwe/Sri Lanka game with a win to Sri Lanka pushing Sri Lanka ahead of Kenya 11.5 - 10.

The washout which put paid to England may well have killed off the fairytale for Kenya as well.


amortiser

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Originally posted by amortiser
My Understanding is that each side plays games against those in the opposite pool.

With Kenya and Sri Lanka in the same pool they will not play each other in the Super Six series.

Consequently, if the sides in Australia's pool win all their games then Kenya will progress to the semis without winning a game in the Super Six.

The pivotal game for Kenya will be the Zimbabwe/Sri Lanka game with a win to Sri Lanka pushing Sri Lanka ahead of Kenya 11.5 - 10.

The washout which put paid to England may well have killed off the fairytale for Kenya as well.


amortiser

Assuming Kenya gain no more points, then both India & Sri Lanka only require 1 more win to join Australia with more points than Kenya. It is a question as to whether NZ (or Zimbabwe) can win at least 2 games to finish ahead of the Kenyans. The Kiwis should account for Zimbabwe, so they need to win either the Australian or Indian game. They should manage one of these, but is far from a certainty.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Originally posted by Jars458
You were the one who said NZ had the wood on us

How did Marto go in the games that we lost??

It can't be denied that NZ had him worked out in last years VB series.

What are the odds on Marto being caught from a square drive against NZ?

 

[Zombie]

Originally posted by Jars458
You were the one who said NZ had the wood on us

They do, I would suggest winning 4 of the last 6 encounters would count as having 'the wood' over a side.