Premiership window?

[WAG]

Based on our form at the end of 2009 the Adelaide forum was alight with the buzz of our Premiership window being firmly open from 2010 onwards. Even the coach didn't shy away from expectations and came out to put his clackers on the line by intimating we should be a top 4 side in 2010!

Fast forward to round 20 2010 and we are faced with the possibility of finishing 13th in the first year of compromised drafts. In 2011 we will not have Goodwin, Edwards, McLeod, Burton, Hentschel, Jacky , and Bock. We do however have some amazing potential in our youngsters and if Tippett can learn to kick straight we have a 65+ goal forward. If Tex and Craig work out who's going to be on top then we have another 65+ goal forward. Add Danger/Porps/Knights and that is as potentially potent as it gets.

We do however still lack a quality ruck and blue chip midfielder. If the club is to be believed and with their new ethos of trading hard this year, then one or both of these problems may be solvered.

To win a premiership, we need to consistently play to the level of a current Geelong/Collingwood/St Kilda. With our current list, when do you think this will happen? Is 2012 realistic? Or do you think we'll be waiting longer for our third premiership?

 

[Smoooothy]

i genuinely beleive next year could be one of those funny transitional years in the AFL. Geelong will not be the force they have been for the past 4 years, and I really can't see any other team taking that mantle..

IF everything goes right (and we are due a year where injuries don't screw us) then it's possible that we could be contenders. in saying that, its not going to take many injuries to key players to completely screw us up again.

 

[Macjoe]

i genuinely beleive next year could be one of those funny transitional years in the AFL. Geelong will not be the force they have been for the past 4 years, and I really can't see any other team taking that mantle..

IF everything goes right (and we are due a year where injuries don't screw us) then it's possible that we could be contenders. in saying that, its not going to take many injuries to key players to completely screw us up again.

Yes, I agree with this. I didn't change my sig in 2009, or early 2010, and I'm not changing it now.

 

[The Karma Bus]

Depends how realistic we want to be

I never thought we would sink this low this year, but i also didn't think we were going to be as hot as some people did.. Though we'd be around 5th-8th..

Being realistic, next premiership window will begin opening in maybe 3 years.. But you sometimes have development ahead of schedule (sometimes behind schedule), a bit of luck and so on..

If we have horror injury runs we don't have the depth which will make it tougher also..

 

[PCORF]

Premiership window won't come for a while.

 

[jenny61_99]

The key group of players for a premiership contender is the group that has played between 100+ games. For us next year we will have (all games approx. as taken from a few weeks ago):

Doughty (184)
Johncock (180)
Thompson (172)
Rutten (144)
Stevens (138)
Reilly (131)
Van Berlo (112)

Very light on when you compare it to the Geelongs/Collingwoods and St Kildas.

Our 50-100 playing group looks more promising:

Porplyzia (83)
Douglas (74)
Knights (73)
Vince (69)
Maric (67)
Symes (63)
Tippett (61)
Mackay (51)

Our next level players include:

Griffin (40)
Dangerfield (39)*
Walker (29)*
Otten (26)*
Petrenko (21)
Moran (17)
Sellar (13)*
Cook (12)
Davis (12)*
Schmidt (11)
Sloane (11)*
Armstrong (9)
Jaensch (9)*
Henderson (8)*

Now there are some in this bottom group that may not make it. * indicates players who need to get maximum game time next year. Not surprisingly the players in the 50+ bracket predominantly make up our starting 22 with a sprinkling of the bottom players included.

What is obvious from the above is that we will have very little depth other than the untried and developing players. For us to be a contender next year (or the following) we MUST draft and trade well - and have a better run with injuries.

 

[Dangarman]

The key group of players for a premiership contender is the group that has played between 100+ games. For us next year we will have (all games approx. as taken from a few weeks ago):

Doughty (184)
Johncock (180)
Thompson (172)
Rutten (144)
Stevens (138)
Reilly (131)
Van Berlo (112)

Very light on when you compare it to the Geelongs/Collingwoods and St Kildas.

Our 50-100 playing group looks more promising:

Porplyzia (83)
Douglas (74)
Knights (73)
Vince (69)
Maric (67)
Symes (63)
Tippett (61)
Mackay (51)

Our next level players include:

Griffin (40)
Dangerfield (39)*
Walker (29)*
Otten (26)*
Petrenko (21)
Moran (17)
Sellar (13)*
Cook (12)
Davis (12)*
Schmidt (11)
Sloane (11)*
Armstrong (9)
Jaensch (9)*
Henderson (8)*

Imagine how that would look for the 2013 season, hopefully adding 40 odd games for each player in the 50+ group and * players. Only Stiffy and Stevens will have turned 30 by then.

Consider none of the players debuted by the club in 2007 will be on the list next year, but the 4 that debuted in 2006 are now 50-100 game players (Porps, Vince, Maric, Douglas). Only van Berlo is in the 50 game gap (2 seasons) between Rielly and Porps, and we need to trade to fill that void IMO, or the window doesn't open until the top 6 in the list above retire.

Pity Luke Ball isn't on the table this year......