Science & Mathematics Probability

[Bugz]

Another maths question

If the probability of me kicking a goal is 0.12 and I have 8 shots, what is the probability I will kick one?

And what is probability I will kick exactly two?

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

Somewhere between not likely and likely with 50/50 in the middle.

 

[SJ]

p = 0.12, n = 8

X ~ B(n, p)
Pr(X = x) = nCx*p^x*(1 - p)^(n - x)

X ~ B(8, 0.12)
Pr(X = 1) = 8C1*0.12^1*(1 - 0.12)^(8 - 1) = 8*0.12*0.88^7 = 0.3923

Pr(X = 2) = 8C2*0.12^2*(1 - 0.12)^(8 - 2) = 28*0.12^2*0.88^6 = 0.1872

 

[DREAM TEAM BUFF]

Somewhere between not likely and likely with 50/50 in the middle.

Half and half

 

[JuddsABlue]

its 50/50

you either kick it or you dont

simple really

 

[SJ]

its 50/50

you either kick it or you dont

simple really

Ok so you'd give me 2/1 that I could kick a goal from one metre out?

Come on, it's 50-50 - either I kick it or I don't!

 

[Selective Retention]

Less than Kent Kingsley, more than 2011 Cam Mooney.

 

[Shell]

Less than Kent Kingsley, more than 2011 Cam Mooney.

Hahaha my response was going to be: "depends. ARE you Richo in this scenario?"

 

[Dan26]

I worked it out like this.

You have 8 shots at goal and you have an 88% chance of missing each individual shot.

So, the probability of missing ALL 8 shots is:

0.88 x 0.88 x 0.88 x 0.88 x 0.88 x 0.88 x 0.88 x 0.88 = 35.963%

Therefore the chance of kicking at least one is 64.037%

 

[Selective Retention]

Yeah there is an obvious difference between =1 and >=1.

When I read the question I too thought it probably related more to >=1 as the second part specifically mentioned exactly two whereas the first part didn't.

Bugz should clarify with his/her maths teacher before getting posters to do his/her homework

 

[Scotland]

If you follow SJ's workings for X=1,2...8 and sum the 8 results you'll end up with Dan26's answer anyway, so you if you calculate the probability of kicking exactly one, exactly two and at least one then you can't go wrong...

 

[Bugz]

Yeah there is an obvious difference between =1 and >=1.

When I read the question I too thought it probably related more to >=1 as the second part specifically mentioned exactly two whereas the first part didn't.

Bugz should clarify with his/her maths teacher before getting posters to do his/her homework

Haha, I do Intro to Quantitative methods by distance, can't be bothered ringing the 'tutor'- especially when geniuses like yourself are just a click away